CSL Limited (ASX:CSL), the Melbourne‑based plasma and vaccines giant, is finishing 2025 under intense scrutiny from investors, regulators and politicians alike. As of the afternoon of 10 December 2025, CSL shares are trading around A$180–182, after closing at about A$181.82 on 9 December and slipping intraday today to roughly A$181. [1]
That puts the stock down roughly 30% for the year, one of the weakest annual performances in the company’s modern history. [2] Yet brokers’ models and fresh buy‑back activity suggest management and many analysts still see upside into 2026.
Below is a rundown of the key news, numbers and forecasts driving CSL’s share price as at 10 December 2025.
CSL share price today: depressed levels after a brutal year
- Current price: Around A$181 per share in afternoon trade on 10 December 2025, with an intraday range near A$180–184. [3]
- Recent move: The stock fell about 2% on 9 December to A$181.82, with the day’s range between A$181.82 and A$186.50. [4]
- 52‑week range: Approximately A$168–290, highlighting how far the stock has fallen from prior highs. [5]
- 2025 performance: CSL is down just over 30% year‑to‑date, after already falling almost 10% in 2024. [6]
Commentators at The Motley Fool Australia describe CSL shares as “massively oversold” and ask whether prices near A$180 represent a “generational bargain” for long‑term investors. [7]
Technically, however, things still look fragile. Short‑term trading models and technical screens flag a near‑term downtrend and elevated volatility, and TipRanks lists the technical sentiment as “Sell” even as fundamental ratings remain positive. [8]
Fresh news flow in December 2025
1. Buy‑back update: capital returns resume at beaten‑down prices
On 10 December 2025, CSL filed an update on its on‑market share buy‑back program. According to TipRanks’ summary of the ASX notice:
- CSL has repurchased 2,634,260 ordinary shares so far under the current buy‑back.
- An additional 50,912 shares were bought back on the previous trading day.
- The company frames the buy‑back as part of its capital management strategy aimed at optimising capital structure and enhancing shareholder value. [9]
TipRanks also highlights:
- Most recent analyst rating: Buy with a price target of A$256.
- Market cap: Around A$89 billion.
- Average trading volume: ~1.17 million shares. [10]
The resumption of buy‑backs at levels roughly one‑third below early‑2025 prices is being interpreted by many as a signal that management believes the sell‑off has gone too far.
2. $1bn Seqirus vaccine deal slammed by federal audit office
The most politically charged headline around CSL this week came not from markets, but from Canberra.
On 8 December 2025, the Australian National Audit Office (ANAO) released a report concluding that a A$1 billion pandemic‑era vaccine procurement deal between the federal government and CSL’s Seqirus division “did not maximise value for money” for taxpayers. [11]
Key points from the audit and subsequent reporting:
- The 2020 deal funded CSL’s new cell‑based vaccine plant in Melbourne, which will produce seasonal flu vaccines, pandemic vaccines and all 11 of Australia’s anti‑venoms, as well as the human Q‑fever vaccine. [12]
- The ANAO criticised the lack of competitive process, the absence of a robust value‑for‑money assessment, and limited planning for what happens when the contract expires in 2030. [13]
- The report lands after a bruising year in which CSL’s share price has fallen by more than 30%, the company has announced about 3,000 job cuts, and there have been industrial disputes at Seqirus facilities. [14]
CSL has defended the arrangement, stressing that it is the only company with the experience and infrastructure to produce Australia’s full suite of anti‑venoms and certain critical vaccines, and noting that the new facility can ramp up to more than 150 million flu doses in the first wave of a pandemic response. [15]
From a stock perspective, the ANAO report adds another layer of headline risk to a business already under pressure from changing global vaccination patterns.
3. Hemgenix gene therapy shows durable 5‑year benefit
On 7 December 2025, CSL announced new long‑term data for HEMGENIX® (etranacogene dezaparvovec‑drlb), its one‑time gene therapy for haemophilia B.
Five‑year (60‑month) follow‑up from the pivotal HOPE‑B Phase 3 study, now published in the New England Journal of Medicine, confirmed the durability of treatment effect and a generally favourable safety profile. [16]
The update reinforces one of CSL’s core investment arguments:
- A high‑value innovation pipeline spanning rare disease and gene therapy.
- Products like Hemgenix that can potentially replace life‑long factor infusions with a single infusion, supporting premium pricing and strong economic moats.
Even as the market obsesses over short‑term vaccine volumes, this sort of pipeline news matters for long‑term earnings power and valuation.
4. “Margin rebuild” narrative gathers pace
A detailed piece from TIKR this week frames CSL as a company mid‑reset rather than in secular decline. [17]
Key takeaways from their analysis of FY25:
- Revenue: About US$15.6 billion, up ~6% year‑on‑year. [18]
- Net profit after tax (NPAT): Around US$3.0 billion, up ~17% in constant currency.
- Underlying NPATA: US$3.3 billion, up ~14%. [19]
- Operating cash flow: Up nearly 30%, with free cash flow up ~58%, as capex and acquisition spend normalised. [20]
TIKR emphasises:
- Improving plasma economics: Higher plasma collection volumes and lower collection costs have helped plasma division CSL Behring regain some lost operating leverage. [21]
- Cost‑saving target: CSL is pursuing more than US$500 million in run‑rate savings by FY28 through restructuring, workforce reductions and efficiency programs. [22]
- FY26 NPATA guidance (before October’s downgrade): US$3.45–3.55 billion, implying 7–10% growth over FY25, excluding restructuring charges. [23]
TIKR characterises CSL as a “wait‑and‑watch” story: the assets are strong, but investor confidence hinges on execution of this margin rebuild plan. [24]
The turning point: guidance cuts, spin‑off delay and investor revolt
Much of the 2025 share‑price damage was done around two major events: the August restructuring announcement and the October guidance downgrade.
August 2025: job cuts and Seqirus demerger
In August, CSL unveiled a sweeping strategic reset alongside its FY25 results:
- A plan to cut around 3,000 jobs as part of a group‑wide simplification and efficiency drive. [25]
- An intention to demerge Seqirus, listing it as a separate ASX‑traded vaccines company in FY26. [26]
The market reacted sharply, with ABC reporting a single‑day fall of nearly 17% on 19 August as CSL dragged the ASX 200 lower. [27]
October 2025: US flu vaccine slump forces guidance cut
On 28 October 2025, CSL announced that a steep drop in US influenza vaccination rates—linked to policy shifts under the new US administration—was hitting its Seqirus business far harder than expected. [28]
In response, the company:
- Cut FY26 guidance for the year ending June 2026:
- Revenue growth now 2–3%, down from 4–5%.
- NPATA growth now 4–7%, down from 7–10% (at constant currency). [29]
- Shelved the Seqirus demerger, saying the spin‑off will only proceed when market conditions allow it to “maximise shareholder value”. [30]
Reuters noted that CSL shares plunged as much as 16.6% to A$176.23, their lowest level in almost seven years, on the day of the downgrade. [31] ABC’s markets blog recorded the stock closing that session at about A$177.85, down nearly 16%. [32]
At the annual general meeting, shareholders:
- Voted against the remuneration report for a second year running, delivering a “second strike”.
- Stopped short of a board spill, with less than 2% of votes backing the motion to remove the board. [33]
All of this has fed into a narrative of a former market darling grappling with earnings volatility, governance scrutiny and changing vaccine behaviour.
Fundamental picture: still a high‑quality healthcare franchise
Despite the market angst, most analysts still view CSL as a high‑quality, cash‑generative healthcare group with a strong competitive position across three pillars:
- CSL Behring (plasma and rare disease)
- CSL Seqirus (influenza and pandemic vaccines)
- CSL Vifor (nephrology and iron deficiency) [34]
Profitability and returns
According to recent data:
- Return on equity (ROE) is about 17% (TTM) as of December 2025, up sharply from an average around 9.5% over the previous four quarters. [35]
- The 2025 dividend yield sits near 1.9%, with a payout ratio of roughly 47%, consistent with CSL’s longstanding preference to reinvest heavily while still providing a modest cash yield. [36]
Segment trends from FY25 results
The FY25 breakdown shows:
- Behring: Revenue over US$11.1 billion, up about 6% at constant currency, driven by 7% growth in immunoglobulins, mid‑teens growth in haemophilia, and improving plasma costs as CSL rolled out its RIKA plasmapheresis devices and optimised collection protocols. [37]
- Seqirus: Revenue of roughly US$2.2 billion, up 2% year‑on‑year, but with double‑digit declines in key brands FLUAD and FLUCELVAX due to lower immunisation rates in the US. [38]
- Vifor: Revenue of about US$2.2 billion, up 8%, supported by nephrology drugs such as TAVNEOS and FILSPARI and continued demand in iron deficiency. [39]
Despite the soft vaccine environment, Seqirus still holds around 42% of the global influenza vaccine market, according to recent management commentary cited by analysts. [40]
Analyst forecasts and valuations: where do the pros think CSL is heading?
Consensus price targets
Across several data providers:
- TradingView reports an average 12‑month price target of about A$239 per share, based on 16 analysts, with estimates ranging from roughly A$193 to A$274. The aggregate rating is “Buy”, with most analysts in the strong buy camp. [41]
- Investing.com shows a similar consensus in the low‑A$240s, again with a majority Buy recommendations. [42]
- TipRanks highlights a recent analyst target of A$256, also with a Buy stance. [43]
At a share price around A$181, these targets imply upside of roughly 30–40% over the next year, if the forecasts prove accurate.
Broker and research house views
Recent broker and research commentary points broadly in the same direction:
- UBS has laid out earnings forecasts through to 2030 and maintains a Buy rating with a price target around A$275, implying almost 50% upside from current levels. [44]
- A Macquarie‑cited analysis (via The Motley Fool) earlier in the year described CSL as undervalued after a 30% slide, suggesting scope for a more than 40% rebound if execution improves. [45]
- Morgan Stanley recently reiterated an overweight view, pointing to the Horizon program and other plasma efficiency initiatives as key drivers of sustainable growth. [46]
- Morningstar cut its fair value estimate by 3% to A$295 after the October guidance downgrade, but still considers CSL undervalued, rating it a narrow‑moat stock with attractive long‑term economics. Their thesis leans on:
- Plasma gross margin recovery of about 600 basis points by FY28.
- A 10‑year revenue CAGR of ~6%, powered by roughly 8% annual growth in immunoglobulin. [47]
Overall, the fundamental research community remains constructive, even as they acknowledge a tougher path in vaccines and heightened execution risk during the restructuring.
Short‑term worries vs long‑term story
Near‑term headwinds
The key issues weighing on CSL Limited stock in late 2025 are:
- US vaccination fatigue and politics: Policy changes and sliding immunisation rates in the United States have significantly dented Seqirus outlook and forced CSL to cut FY26 guidance. [48]
- Governance and investor relations: Two consecutive remuneration strikes and visible shareholder frustration at the AGM have drawn attention to executive pay and accountability after years of outperformance. [49]
- Workforce morale and execution risk: Large‑scale job cuts and industrial disputes add organisational risk at a time when the company is trying to re‑engineer its cost base and launch new products. [50]
- Perception over public contracts: The ANAO criticism of the Seqirus vaccine deal gives ammunition to skeptics and could shape future government negotiations across CSL’s vaccine and anti‑venom portfolio. [51]
Long‑term supports
Against that, the longer‑term investment case rests on a few durable pillars:
- Oligopolistic plasma market: CSL is one of only three truly global plasma therapy players, with around 30% of global plasma collection centres according to Morningstar, giving it scale and pricing power. [52]
- Robust demand for immunoglobulin: Demand for Ig therapies continues to rise as diagnostics improve and more indications win approval; this segment remains relatively insulated from recombinant competition so far. [53]
- Diversified growth via Vifor and gene therapy: Nephrology drugs, iron therapies and assets like Hemgenix broaden CSL’s revenue base and open new, higher‑margin niches. [54]
- Balance sheet and ROE: With mid‑teens ROE and strengthening free cash flow, CSL has balance‑sheet capacity for R&D, bolt‑on M&A and buy‑backs, even after the Seqirus pivot. [55]
This tension—between near‑term vaccine noise and long‑term plasma, nephrology and gene therapy fundamentals—is exactly what makes the current share price so controversial among investors.
What to watch in 2026 for CSL Limited (ASX:CSL)
Looking ahead from 10 December 2025, the key catalysts for CSL Limited stock include:
- Evidence of margin rebuild
Investors will be watching quarterly updates on:- Plasma collection costs and volumes.
- Behring margins and operating leverage.
- Progress against the US$500m+ cost‑saving target by FY28. [56]
- US vaccine trends and Seqirus strategy
Any stabilisation—or further deterioration—in US flu vaccination rates will feed directly into Seqirus earnings and could determine when, if ever, the Seqirus spin‑off is revived. [57] - Adoption curves for high‑value therapies
Uptake of Hemgenix in the US and Europe, plus continued growth in newer nephrology products like TAVNEOS and FILSPARI, will shape CSL’s growth mix and margin profile. [58] - Capital management and buy‑back pace
With shares trading well below most valuation estimates, the size and speed of ongoing buy‑backs will be a strong signal of management’s conviction in intrinsic value. [59]
Bottom line
As at 10 December 2025, CSL Limited is a classic battleground stock:
- The share price around A$181 reflects deep investor scepticism after guidance cuts, political noise around vaccines and a bumpy restructuring. [60]
- Consensus analyst targets in the A$240–275 range and the decision to buy back stock at current levels indicate that many professionals still see substantial upside if CSL executes on its plans. [61]
Whether 2026 becomes the year the margin rebuild starts to show through in headline numbers will likely determine if CSL’s slump near A$180 is remembered as a rare long‑term buying window—or as a sign that the company’s golden era of effortless outperformance is behind it.
References
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