Macquarie Group Limited (ASX: MQG) heads into the final weeks of 2025 with its share price hovering around A$195, a major A$11.6 billion takeover proposal on the table, and a freshly increased interim dividend scheduled to be paid next week. [1]
The stock is still digesting a softer‑than‑hoped half‑year profit and an underperforming commodities franchise, even as analysts project modest revenue growth, stronger earnings in 2026 and mid‑teens upside from current levels. [2]
This article summarises the latest share‑price action, corporate news, forecasts and analyst views on Macquarie Group as at 10 December 2025. It is general information only, not financial advice.
Macquarie Group share price on 10 December 2025
As of mid‑morning in Sydney on 10 December 2025, Macquarie Group shares were trading at roughly A$194–195, slightly down on the session and broadly flat over the past week. [3]
Daily price data show MQG closing around A$194.7 on 10 December after trading in a tight range in the mid‑A$190s. The stock has drifted sideways over the last fortnight, with technical research site StockInvest estimating a gain of about 1.5% over the past two weeks, while still flagging typical day‑to‑day volatility of around 1–2%. [4]
The bigger picture is less flattering. A Reuters note on the 16 November ex‑dividend date highlighted that Macquarie shares had fallen nearly 12% year‑to‑date, hitting their lowest level since early May when the stock slipped to about A$195.3 as it traded ex the new interim dividend. [5]
That weakness followed a sharp sell‑off in early November after the latest half‑year results missed market expectations, a theme that still colours sentiment in December.
Earnings check: 1H26 profit up, but below market hopes
Macquarie’s current financial year is FY26 (to March 2026). For the first half (1H26), covering the six months to 30 September 2025, the group reported:
- Net profit after tax of A$1.655 billion, up 3% on the prior corresponding period but down 21% versus the immediately preceding half. [6]
- Net operating income of just over A$9 billion, up mid‑single digits year‑on‑year, reflecting the breadth of Macquarie’s franchises. [7]
Segment performance was highly uneven:
- Macquarie Asset Management: Profit jumped about 43%, buoyed by performance fees from infrastructure and data‑centre assets such as AirTrunk and Aligned. [8]
- Banking and Financial Services: Profit rose roughly 22%, supported by strong growth in home loans and deposits, with the mortgage book expanding to around A$160 billion and a market share above 6%. [9]
- Macquarie Capital: Earnings surged over 90%, driven by higher M&A and brokerage income amid a pick‑up in deal activity. [10]
- Commodities and Global Markets (CGM): Profit fell about 15% to A$1.11 billion amid weaker client activity and subdued trading conditions, a notable hit given this unit has historically contributed up to half of group profit. [11]
The market reaction was blunt. Macquarie’s half‑year net profit of roughly A$1.66 billion came in around 11–12% below analyst expectations near A$1.8–1.86 billion, prompting a one‑day share‑price drop of roughly 6–7% and leaving the stock down mid‑single digits for the year at that point. [12]
Commentary from Reuters Breakingviews argued that shareholders may still be “living in the past”, with the group’s annualised return on equity in the latest half around 9–10%, well below the mid‑teens returns that once justified Macquarie’s premium valuation. [13]
Dividend and buy‑back: cash still flowing to investors
Despite the softer profit, Macquarie’s board opted to raise the interim dividend again:
- 1H26 interim ordinary dividend: A$2.80 per share, 35% franked
- Up from A$2.60 a year earlier and below the A$3.90 final dividend paid for 2H25
- Implied payout ratio around 64%, within the long‑standing policy to distribute 50–70% of annual earnings. [14]
Key dates:
- Ex‑dividend date: 17 November 2025
- Record date: 18 November 2025
- Payment date: 17 December 2025 [15]
On current market prices near A$195, dividend‑tracking site Digrin estimates forward dividend yield at roughly 2.9%, a modest income stream compared with some domestic banks but backed by an extended track record of semi‑annual payouts and slow but steady dividend growth (about 2–3% per year over the past three years). [16]
In parallel, Macquarie has extended its A$2 billion on‑market share buy‑back for another year, after buying back roughly half that amount so far. [17]
The combination of a higher dividend and continued buy‑backs suggests management remains comfortable with the balance sheet and capital buffers, even if headline profit momentum has cooled.
Qube takeover: A$11.6 billion bet on ports and logistics
The biggest new swing Macquarie has taken in late 2025 is its bid for Qube Holdings, Australia’s largest listed logistics and ports operator.
In late November, Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) made a non‑binding proposal to acquire Qube at A$5.20 in cash per share, valuing the company’s equity at about A$7.5 billion and its enterprise value at around A$11.6 billion, including debt. [18]
Key deal details:
- The cash offer represented a ~28% premium to Qube’s pre‑announcement share price. [19]
- Qube’s stock jumped around 19–20% to record highs on the news but has traded roughly 10–12% below the offer since, signalling that investors see material deal risk. [20]
- Qube has granted Macquarie a period of exclusive due diligence until 1 February 2026, and its board has indicated it intends to unanimously recommend the proposal in the absence of a superior offer and subject to a binding scheme implementation agreement. [21]
A Reuters Breakingviews column on 9 December framed the Qube approach as one of two large storage‑related buyouts helping to “save Aussie M&A blushes” after a lacklustre year, noting that Macquarie’s prospective A$11.6 billion purchase would mark one of the largest Australian take‑privates of 2025. [22]
Competition concerns and new merger laws
The proposed takeover is also a test case for Australia’s new competition laws, which came into effect in January 2025. Analysis in The Australian argues that acquiring Qube could give Macquarie a powerful position on the nation’s east‑coast freight corridors:
- Qube owns a 50% stake in Patrick, a major container stevedore at Port Botany.
- Macquarie‑managed funds own 50% of the Port of Newcastle.
- Regulators are likely to scrutinise potential vertical integration and the concentration of bargaining power in ports and logistics. [23]
The article also notes that Qube’s share price trading meaningfully below the bid price reflects investor uncertainty about whether the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) will clear the deal under the new notification regime. [24]
For Macquarie Group shareholders, the Qube bid is strategically consistent with the firm’s longstanding push into infrastructure and real assets but introduces regulatory and execution risk on a scale large enough to matter for group returns.
Balance sheet strength and credit ratings
Despite the share‑price wobble and volatility in its trading businesses, Macquarie continues to enjoy strong external credit metrics.
In a 1 December 2025 update, Fitch Ratings:
- Affirmed Macquarie Group Limited’s Long‑Term Issuer Default Rating at ‘A’ with a Stable Outlook (and Short‑Term IDR ‘F1’).
- Highlighted “low double leverage” at the holding‑company level and a commitment to keeping common‑equity double leverage below 120%.
- Emphasised sound liquidity management across both the bank and holding company.
- Pointed to internationally diversified operations and continued growth in Macquarie Bank’s Australian residential mortgage and deposit franchise, with market share expected to rise further from about 6%.
- Noted a diversified earnings profile and robust capital buffers, with capital well above regulatory minima. [25]
Fitch also reported an impaired‑loan ratio of 0.8% and loan‑loss allowances covering more than 60% of impaired exposures, indicating manageable asset‑quality risks at this stage in the cycle. [26]
This external stamp of approval helps explain why Macquarie is comfortable maintaining its dividend and buy‑back, even as near‑term profitability and investor sentiment swing around.
What analysts are forecasting for Macquarie stock
Earnings and revenue outlook
Following the 1H26 result, Simply Wall St collated updated broker forecasts from 11 sell‑side analysts:
- FY26 revenue: around A$18.4 billion, implying about 3.2% growth on the trailing 12 months.
- FY26 statutory EPS: forecast to rise roughly 9% to A$10.83, as cost discipline and mix effects help earnings grow faster than revenue. [27]
Importantly, those numbers were only marginally changed from pre‑result expectations, suggesting analysts see the latest half as a bump in the road rather than a fundamental reset of Macquarie’s long‑term earnings power. [28]
Price targets: mid‑teens upside, but some disagreement
Price‑target data are broadly supportive, though not unanimously bullish:
- Simply Wall St / Webull summarised consensus target price near A$224, with a range of A$200–255. [29]
- TipRanks, aggregating several brokers, also reports an average target of about A$224, with a high around A$258 and a low just above A$202, implying roughly 14–15% upside from recent levels. [30]
- TradingView’s forecast page shows a slightly higher average target around A$231, with estimates spanning about A$200–265. [31]
Short‑term technical research is mildly constructive: StockInvest notes a buy signal from a pivot bottom on 19 November, reinforced by a positive three‑month MACD trend, though it also warns about increased trading volume on down days as a potential negative sign. [32]
Not all models are optimistic. Valuation site ValueInvesting.io, using a Peter Lynch‑style fair‑value model, pegs Macquarie’s intrinsic value at around A$97.6 per share as of 10 December—roughly 50% below the current market price—and therefore flags the stock as significantly overvalued on its assumptions. [33]
That spread between broker targets and some quantitative valuation models underscores the central debate: is Macquarie a high‑quality franchise temporarily mis‑priced by near‑term headwinds, or a structurally lower‑return business still trading on yesterday’s multiple?
Macro backdrop and strategic positioning
Macquarie’s own macro team recently released a 2026 Global Economic and Market Outlook that sketches a cautiously optimistic backdrop for its core businesses:
- They expect equity markets to grind higher and commodity prices to rally, albeit unevenly across sectors.
- The US dollar is forecast to weaken further, which can be a tailwind for many global risk assets.
- Much of the central‑bank easing cycle is seen as largely priced in, with the Federal Reserve potentially returning to rate hikes by late 2026 if growth and inflation re‑accelerate. [34]
Within that environment:
- Asset management and infrastructure funds could benefit from continued demand for real assets and income‑producing infrastructure—areas where Macquarie remains a global heavyweight. [35]
- Banking & Financial Services stands to gain from modest credit growth and stable credit quality, assuming the impaired‑loan cycle remains benign as Fitch currently assumes. [36]
- Commodities and Global Markets is more exposed to trading volumes and price volatility. The recent slump, combined with a A$152 million impairment on green investments (notably US offshore wind), has raised questions about how cyclical and policy‑sensitive this profit engine is. [37]
At the same time, Macquarie’s digital bank has reportedly surpassed A$300 billion in assets, bringing it into line with Australia’s largest banks for regulatory purposes and making the group eligible for the new “Most Significant Financial Institution” tier under APRA’s rules. [38]
That elevation may add compliance and capital requirements over time, but it also underscores how deeply Macquarie is now embedded in mainstream Australian retail banking.
Key risks for Macquarie Group shareholders
Investors following Macquarie Group stock on 10 December 2025 should keep several risk themes on the radar:
- Regulatory and antitrust risk
The Qube bid faces scrutiny under Australia’s revamped merger regime and could be blocked, delayed or forced to accept remedies that dent its financial appeal. Macquarie also continues to navigate tighter oversight after past controversies, including the Shield Master Fund repayment. [39] - Earnings volatility in Commodities & Global Markets
The CGM division remains a substantial but more unpredictable earnings contributor. A prolonged period of subdued trading or further write‑downs on energy transition projects could keep returns below management’s historic targets. [40] - Valuation risk
Even after this year’s pullback, Macquarie still trades at a premium to book value, with Reuters Breakingviews pointing to a multiple above 2x forecast book that may not be fully justified by sub‑10% current ROE. Model‑based valuations like ValueInvesting.io’s also flag potential downside if growth disappoints. [41] - Macro shocks and interest‑rate uncertainty
Macquarie earns fees and spreads across asset management, lending and trading. A sharper‑than‑expected slowdown, renewed inflation spike or abrupt change in central‑bank policy could affect deal flow, market activity and credit quality simultaneously. [42] - Reputational and governance issues
Shareholder dissent over executive pay earlier in 2025, combined with regulatory penalties, shows that governance and culture remain under scrutiny. Repeat “strikes” against remuneration or further compliance missteps could eventually pressure leadership. [43]
Bottom line: Macquarie Group on 10 December 2025
On 10 December 2025, Macquarie Group stock sits at a crossroads:
- The share price near A$195 embeds a year of disappointment relative to the broader Australian financials sector, but not a collapse in confidence. [44]
- The group still generates solid, if less spectacular, returns, pays an increased A$2.80 interim dividend, and continues to retire shares via buy‑backs. [45]
- It has launched a transformational A$11.6 billion bid for Qube, doubling down on infrastructure and logistics just as regulators get more assertive. [46]
- Credit ratings remain strong, and broker forecasts still point to modest revenue growth, faster EPS growth and mid‑teens potential upside from current levels, even as some valuation models argue the stock is expensive. [47]
For investors and market‑watchers alike, Macquarie has moved from being a near‑perfect growth story to a more nuanced, “show‑me” proposition: richly diversified, strongly capitalised and strategically ambitious, but facing tougher regulators, more volatile profit engines and a shareholder base adjusting to lower, more bank‑like returns.
References
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