Telstra Group Limited (ASX:TLS) is ending 2025 in a very unusual position: the share price is hovering just below record highs, analysts are steadily upgrading their dividend expectations, and at the same time the company is under intense political pressure over fatal triple‑zero emergency call failures.
As of 10 December 2025, Telstra shares are trading around A$4.92, roughly 23% higher year‑to‑date and only a few per cent below their 52‑week peak above A$5.10. [1] That rally has pushed Telstra’s market capitalisation to roughly A$55–56 billion, cementing its status as one of the ASX 200’s core “defensive income” names. [2]
Below is a deep dive into the latest news, forecasts and analysis relevant to Telstra shares as at 10 December 2025.
Telstra share price today: near the top of the 52‑week range
Recent trading data from InvestSMART/Intelligent Investor shows: [3]
- Last close: about A$4.92
- 52‑week high: ~A$5.10 (12 November 2025)
- 52‑week low: ~A$3.87 (13 February 2025)
- 2025 calendar‑year move: about +23%
- FY26 (current financial year) move so far: less than 1%, after the big FY25 run‑up
Technical site StockInvest paints Telstra as a low‑volatility “hold/accumulate”: the stock was downgraded from Buy to Hold on 9 December after a small pull‑back, but their model still expects the price to remain in a relatively tight range between roughly A$4.93 and A$5.19 over the next three months, with modest daily swings around 1–1.5%. [4]
In other words, the market is treating Telstra less like a roller‑coaster tech stock and more like a sturdy utility: price moves are small, but the direction over 2025 has clearly been up.
FY25 results: profit jump, stronger margins and a bigger buyback
Telstra’s full‑year 2025 results (year ended 30 June 2025), released in August, are the fundamental backbone of the current share‑price strength. [5]
Key numbers:
- Total income: A$23.6 billion, broadly flat year‑on‑year (up ~0.5–0.9%).
- EBITDA: about A$8.6 billion, up around 14% on an underlying basis.
- Profit attributable to equity holders:A$2.17 billion, up about 34% from FY24’s A$1.62 billion.
- EBITDA margin and EPS: both moved higher, helped by cost cuts and the absence of large one‑off charges that hit FY24.
Roger Montgomery’s detailed post‑results review characterised FY25 as a “standout” year, driven by: [6]
- Mobile pricing power: post‑paid plan prices increased by about A$3–5 per month, lifting mobile service revenue by roughly 3–3.5%.
- Cost discipline: operating expenses fell by roughly 5–6%, partly thanks to 3,208 job cuts, which reduced the workforce to around 30,500 employees.
- Cleaner comparatives: the prior year had absorbed around A$715 million in restructuring and write‑downs that did not repeat in FY25.
The upshot: despite sluggish top‑line growth, Telstra meaningfully expanded profits and margins in FY25, mostly by leaning on its pricing power and trimming costs.
Connected Future 30: a leaner, AI‑driven Telstra
FY25 also marked the transition into Telstra’s new “Connected Future 30” (CF30) strategy – the next five‑year chapter after the T25 plan.
According to Morningstar and Telstra’s own materials, CF30 aims for a mid‑single‑digit compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in cash earnings from FY25 to FY30, alongside “sustainable and growing” dividends. [7]
A few important planks of this strategy:
- Sharper focus on connectivity and infrastructure
Morningstar describes CF30 as an effort to “shrink to greatness”: focus on the core connectivity business and shed lower‑return distractions. That means more emphasis on Telstra’s network assets, including InfraCo‑Fixed and tower unit Amplitel, which together generate roughly a quarter of group earnings under long‑term contracts and NBN‑linked cash flows. TechStock²+1 - Heavier use of AI and automation
At Telstra’s investor day in May, CEO Vicki Brady and CFO Michael Ackland said explicitly that the company expects the workforce to be smaller by 2030 as AI efficiencies flow through, especially in customer service, billing and software development. Telstra spends over A$2 billion a year in operating costs across sales, contact centres and customer management, and sees “revolutionary” potential for AI to streamline those activities. [8] Telstra has already rolled out generative AI tools internally (for example, summarising customer calls), and longer‑term ambitions include self‑healing networks that can anticipate and fix issues automatically – a key part of the “autonomous network” concept referenced in CF30. [9] - Portfolio reshaping
As part of this “leaner Telstra” narrative, management is selling 75% of its cloud services arm Versent to Infosys for roughly A$233 million, with some proceeds contingent on performance. Enterprise remains under pressure, and Telstra has flagged further restructuring and about 550 additional role cuts in that division going into FY26. [10]
The strategic thread running through all this: Telstra is banking on being a high‑margin, infrastructure‑heavy connectivity platform rather than a sprawling IT and services conglomerate.
Guidance and outlook: what Telstra expects in FY26
At the 2025 AGM in October, Telstra laid out new medium‑term targets and formal guidance for FY26: [11]
- Underlying EBITDA after leases (EBITDAaL FY26):A$8.15–8.45 billion
- Cash EBIT FY26:A$4.55–4.75 billion, implying 5.5–10% growth on FY25
- Strategic capex FY26:A$0.3–0.5 billion, largely to support the intercity fibre project
The earnings guidance midpoint came in a touch below market expectations, triggering a small share‑price dip on the day of the announcement. Reuters noted that the midpoint of Telstra’s guidance was slightly under consensus forecasts, which contributed to a 2% fall in the stock to around A$4.88 at the time. [12]
Still, the numbers point to continued moderate earnings growth, with management clearly signalling that CF30 is about steady compounding rather than spectacular expansion.
Dividends: history, current yield and forecasts to 2030
What Telstra is paying now
From Telstra’s FY25 results and multiple data providers: [13]
- FY25 total dividend:19.0 cents per share, fully franked
- Interim: 9.5c
- Final: 9.5c
- Latest payment: 10c per share on 25 September 2025
- Current cash yield: around 3.8–3.9% at a share price near A$4.92
- Grossed‑up yield (including franking): roughly 5.5–5.6%, for investors who can fully use the franking credits
Dividend data collated by StocksGuide highlights that: [14]
- Telstra has paid a dividend for 25 straight years.
- It has not cut the dividend for six years, with recent increases four times in a row.
- FY25’s total dividend of 19c represented about 5.6% year‑on‑year growth.
- The five‑year average yield is about 5.1%, and the ten‑year average is over 6%.
The catch: the reported payout ratio is around 100% of FY25 earnings, and the three‑year smoothed payout is higher, which means future dividend growth will need to be supported by either earnings growth, buybacks shrinking the share count, or both. [15]
Broker forecasts: UBS and Macquarie look out to 2030
This is where the latest broker commentary is important.
- UBS:
A series of Motley Fool‑syndicated pieces report that UBS expects Telstra to pay a 21 cent dividend in FY26, rising each year to around 30 cents per share by FY30, which would imply a material step‑up in income over the next five years. [16] UBS estimates that FY26 could deliver around a 6% grossed‑up yield at current prices, but the firm still sits on a “hold” rating with a 12‑month price target near A$4.80, implying Telstra is roughly fairly valued after the 2025 rally. [17] - Macquarie:
Macquarie has taken a more bullish stance. In a widely shared note summarised via Webull/Motley Fool, the broker: [18]- rates Telstra “Outperform”,
- sets a price target between A$5.04 and A$5.28, and
- sees scope for fully franked dividends rising to around 20–22 cents per share in FY26.
Put simply: the dividend story is moving from “stable” to “gently rising” in most broker models, provided Telstra can keep squeezing incremental earnings from its mobile and infrastructure businesses.
Capital management: A$1.75 billion in buybacks and counting
Dividends aren’t the only way Telstra is feeding cash back to shareholders.
Between FY25 and FY26:
- Telstra completed an initial A$750 million on‑market share buyback, which helped reduce shares on issue to around 11.39 billion by June 2025. [19]
- In August 2025 the company announced a new A$1 billion buyback, citing a strong balance sheet and confidence in cash generation. [20]
- In early December 2025, ASX notices show daily “Update – Notification of buy‑back” announcements, signalling that Telstra is actively repurchasing stock around the A$4.90–4.95 level. [21]
Morningstar and Reuters both note that this buyback is economically meaningful: shrinking the share count boosts EPS and dividend capacity per share, which is one reason Telstra can contemplate lifting dividends even if topline growth stays modest. [22]
The obvious risk is that if the share price runs too far ahead of fundamentals, buybacks become a more questionable use of capital. For now, major research houses still view Telstra as roughly fairly valued to slightly undervalued against their intrinsic value estimates, which keeps the buyback looking rational rather than reckless. [23]
Triple‑zero failures and regulatory risk: the dark cloud over the story
Where things get much more uncomfortable is on emergency‑call reliability and regulatory scrutiny.
What’s happening in the triple‑zero inquiry?
Telstra operates Australia’s 000 emergency call platform. Over the past few months, a Senate inquiry has been hearing evidence about multiple incidents where callers couldn’t reach emergency services – some of which have been linked to deaths.
Recent reporting synthesised by TechStock² and others highlights: TechStock²+2ChannelNews+2
- Telstra received advice from NSW Ambulance on 24 September 2025 that a person had died after failing to connect to triple zero.
- CEO Vicki Brady told the inquiry that Telstra promptly informed the federal communications department and regulators, but did not directly raise the fatality with Communications Minister Anika Wells in subsequent meetings, instead relying on officials to pass that information on.
- TPG Telecom, which runs the Vodafone network in Australia, has disclosed a second possible fatality linked to older Samsung handsets on its network that could not make triple‑zero calls after 3G was switched off. TPG’s CEO told the inquiry that Telstra had notified the company about an incident at Wentworth Falls involving a failed emergency call on 24 September. [24]
- Evidence from Samsung indicated that tens of thousands of older devices across Telstra, Optus and TPG networks needed software updates or replacement to ensure emergency‑call compatibility, and that carriers had long been warned about the issue. [25]
Alongside these handset‑related issues, the inquiry is also looking at past high‑profile outages – particularly at Optus – that left customers unable to call triple zero, and the broader question of how redundant and resilient the national emergency‑call architecture really is.
Potential consequences for Telstra
None of this has yet translated into new fines for Telstra specifically, but the direction of travel is clear:
- The federal government has previously flagged tougher laws for triple‑zero reliability, including a potential independent guardian role for the emergency‑call system and stronger real‑time outage‑reporting obligations for telcos. TechStock²+1
- Senators have been openly critical of both telcos and the government for not moving faster to block unsafe devices and for communication gaps around fatalities. Some have accused Telstra of trying to “cover up” the gravity of certain incidents, a claim the company disputes. [26]
For investors, the lesson is:
Triple‑zero isn’t a one‑day headline; it’s an ongoing regulatory overhang.
Additional compliance costs, mandated network upgrades, or penalties are all plausible outcomes over the next couple of years, even if the direct financial hit from any single measure is relatively modest compared with Telstra’s A$8‑plus billion in annual EBITDA.
ACCC broadband speed penalty: A$18 million fine is a reminder on governance
The emergency‑call saga lands on top of a separate regulatory issue.
In October, the Federal Court ordered Telstra to pay an A$18 million penalty after it moved almost 9,000 Belong NBN customers from 100/40 Mbps plans to 100/20 Mbps plans without telling them their upload speed had been halved. [27]
Key details from the ACCC and press reports:
- About 8,897 customers were migrated in late 2020.
- Telstra has been required to remediate customers with A$15 per month credits for the time they were on the lower‑speed plan, totalling more than A$2.3 million in compensation.
- The ACCC has used the case to signal that misleading claims or undisclosed changes to essential services like telecoms remain an enforcement priority.
Financially, A$18 million is small relative to Telstra’s earnings, but combined with the triple‑zero scrutiny it reinforces a narrative that governance and consumer‑protection risk is real and has to be priced in.
What the latest analysts and data sites are saying
Pulling together the most recent commentary:
Fundamental view: growing, but not fast
Simply Wall St’s early‑December note on Telstra points out that: [28]
- Earnings per share (EPS) have grown around 10% per year over the last three years.
- Revenue and EBIT margins over the last year were broadly flat, which fits the story of profit growth driven by pricing and cost cuts rather than booming sales.
They also highlight insider alignment:
- Telstra insiders bought roughly A$580,000 worth of shares over the past 12 months, with the largest single purchase being a ~A$419,000 buy by non‑executive director David Lamont at about A$4.19 per share.
- Insiders collectively hold about A$55 million of stock – a small fraction of the company, but enough to signal shared economic interest with outside shareholders. [29]
Defensive income case: Morningstar’s “shrinking to greatness”
Morningstar has been particularly vocal on Telstra in recent weeks:
- It raised its fair value estimate by 8% to A$5.40, citing lower perceived risk (a reduced weighted average cost of capital of 6.5% vs 6.8%) and strong earnings resilience from infrastructure‑heavy operations. [30]
- Analysts describe Telstra as a “boring” but appealing defensive stock, especially in a market obsessed with high‑beta tech names.
- They emphasise that ongoing share buybacks are “shrinking” share capital to support EPS and dividend growth, even as the business itself trims non‑core operations – hence the “shrinking to greatness” framing. [31]
Technical view: cautious hold
As noted earlier, StockInvest’s AI‑driven technical analysis now labels Telstra a Hold/Accumulate, after downgrading from Buy on 9 December: [32]
- The site flags mixed moving‑average signals,
- sees support near A$4.89 and resistance around A$4.94–4.96, and
- expects low volatility but a slightly less attractive risk/reward balance in the very short term.
Short version: fundamentals look solid, technicals say “don’t chase aggressively” at this exact level.
Key drivers to watch into 2026
From everything on the table as at 10 December 2025, the Telstra story into FY26 and FY27 hinges on a handful of big themes:
- Mobile pricing vs competition
Telstra has been raising prices and still growing mobile service revenue. Investors will be watching churn and market‑share trends closely to make sure this doesn’t backfire as Optus and TPG try to claw back customers. [33] - Execution on CF30 and AI‑enabled cost‑out
The company is promising mid‑single‑digit cash‑earnings growth and higher ROIC by 2030, partly thanks to AI and automation. Delivering those productivity gains without damaging customer experience is a non‑trivial challenge. [34] - Regulatory outcomes from triple‑zero
Any new obligations, penalties or forced investments that emerge from the Senate inquiry or ACCC scrutiny could affect both costs and public perception, even if the direct P&L hit is initially modest. - Infrastructure monetisation and optionality
InfraCo‑Fixed, Amplitel, and network‑related projects like the intercity fibre build give Telstra the option to raise capital, spin out assets, or re‑price access over time. That optionality is part of why some analysts keep nudging fair‑value estimates up. [35] - Interest rates and the broader equity market
As a high‑dividend, defensive stock, Telstra is sensitive to bond yields and risk sentiment. If rates fall or stabilise and investors keep searching for income, the market may tolerate a premium valuation; if bond yields spike again, yield plays often derate.
So is Telstra stock a buy, hold or sell right now?
Different research houses will answer that question differently, but the consensus shape of the argument as of 10 December 2025 looks like this:
The bullish case
- Telstra offers fully franked, slowly growing dividends, with brokers like UBS and Macquarie pencilling in 21c or so by FY26 and potentially 30c by FY30. [36]
- Management is returning cash via a large on‑market buyback, amplifying per‑share earnings and dividends. [37]
- CF30 and the shift toward AI‑enabled efficiency suggest improving margins and ROIC in a business that already has entrenched infrastructure advantages. [38]
- Morningstar and others argue the stock is still trading at or below fair value for a company with relatively predictable cash flows. [39]
The cautious or neutral case
- Telstra is not a fast grower: revenue is almost flat, and much of the recent EPS expansion came from cost cuts and one‑offs that can’t be repeated forever. [40]
- The stock has already run more than 20% in 2025, and several brokers (for example UBS and Jarden) sit on “hold” ratings with price targets not far from – or even slightly below – the current share price. [41]
- Regulatory risk around triple‑zero and consumer protection looks higher than usual for a defensive telco, even if the dollar amounts involved in past penalties have been manageable so far. [42]
Put together, Telstra in December 2025 looks like a classic income stock that has just enjoyed a solid re‑rating. For investors focused on:
- Fully franked dividends,
- Lower‑volatility exposures within the ASX 200, and
- Reasonably predictable infrastructure‑linked cash flows,
Telstra still has a logical place on the shortlist – provided you’re comfortable with the regulatory noise and understand that future returns are more likely to be steady rather than spectacular.
For more growth‑oriented investors, the combination of modest top‑line growth and a P/E in the mid‑20s (with forward estimates just under 24x) may feel a little rich compared with higher‑growth names trading on similar multiples. [43]
References
1. www.intelligentinvestor.com.au, 2. stockinvest.us, 3. www.intelligentinvestor.com.au, 4. stockinvest.us, 5. www.telstra.com.au, 6. rogermontgomery.com, 7. www.telstra.com.au, 8. www.theguardian.com, 9. www.theguardian.com, 10. rogermontgomery.com, 11. www.nasdaq.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.telstra.com.au, 14. stocksguide.com, 15. stocksguide.com, 16. www.webull.com, 17. www.webull.com, 18. www.webull.ca, 19. www.telstra.com.au, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.intelligentinvestor.com.au, 22. www.tradingview.com, 23. longbridge.com, 24. www.sbs.com.au, 25. www.channelnews.com.au, 26. www.channelnews.com.au, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. simplywall.st, 29. simplywall.st, 30. www.tradingview.com, 31. www.morningstar.com.au, 32. stockinvest.us, 33. www.news.com.au, 34. www.theguardian.com, 35. www.tradingview.com, 36. www.webull.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. rogermontgomery.com, 39. www.tradingview.com, 40. www.telstra.com.au, 41. www.webull.com, 42. www.marketscreener.com, 43. stocksguide.com
