Keppel Ltd (SGX: BN4) Stock Outlook 2026: Can the Rally, Buybacks and Asset Sales Keep Driving Returns?

Published: 10 December 2025

Keppel stock today: near record highs after a stellar 2025

Keppel Ltd (Keppel, SGX: BN4) is finishing 2025 in rarefied air.

As of the morning session on 10 December 2025, Keppel shares trade around S$10.10, slightly softer on the day but close to recent peaks above S$10.30. ^[1]

Over the past year, Keppel has delivered roughly 55% year-to-date total return, handily beating the Straits Times Index (STI). ^[2] Market cap has climbed to about S$18.3 billion (around US$14 billion), up almost 50% from end‑2024. ^[3]

Longer-term performance is even more striking. Simply Wall St estimates the share price is up about 96% over five years, while total shareholder return (TSR), including dividends, is about 291% – implying dividends and distributions have been a major part of the story. ^[4]

Against that backdrop, investors naturally want to know: after such a run, is there still upside left in Keppel stock going into 2026?

Fresh news as of 10 December 2025

1. New retail real-estate tie-up with Uniqlo’s parent

On 10 December 2025, Keppel announced a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Fast Retailing, the parent of Uniqlo, to explore retail‑driven real estate projects across Asia-Pacific. ^[5]

Key points:

The MOU was signed between Keppel’s fund management CEO/CIO Christina Tan and Fast Retailing group executive officer Takayuki Miki. ^[6]
The partnership is already moving: Uniqlo will become a tenant at “Hanoi Centre”, a Keppel‑operated mall that is expected to become Hanoi’s largest shopping destination in 2026. ^[7]

Why it matters for the stock:

It strengthens Keppel’s real estate and retail credentials and helps de‑risk large projects by anchoring them with blue‑chip tenants.
It adds to the narrative that Keppel is not just monetising assets but also rebuilding its pipeline in higher‑value, recurring‑income properties aligned with consumption and urbanisation trends.

2. Continuous on‑market share buybacks in late 2025

Keppel has been aggressively buying back its own shares.

The company launched a S$500 million share buyback programme with its 1H 2025 results. ^[8]
SGX filings and MarketScreener show Keppel repeatedly buying 50,000 shares per day on the open market in recent weeks, typically spending around S$0.51 million per session. ^[9]
One recent notice (9 December 2025) confirms another 50,000 shares bought, under a mandate that allows up to about 90.7 million shares to be repurchased. ^[10]

Implication:

Persistent buybacks tend to support the share price, shrink the free float and boost earnings per share.
They also signal management confidence that the stock remains attractive even after its big run – although buybacks can be mistimed if valuations become stretched.

3. 9M 2025 results: record highs backed by recurring income

Keppel’s nine‑month 2025 update (9M 2025) and accompanying coverage from the company and Reuters highlight strong fundamentals: ^[11]

“New Keppel” net profit (excluding legacy assets earmarked for sale) rose by more than 25% year‑on‑year.
Including discontinued operations and non‑core assets, overall net profit still grew by over 5%, despite an accounting loss from the proposed sale of its M1 telco business.
Recurring income – mainly from asset management fees and operating income – grew by about 15%.
Keppel monetised roughly S$2.4 billion of assets in 9M 2025, bringing the total unlocked since the asset‑monetisation plan began in October 2020 to around S$14 billion, with another S$500+ million of deals targeted in the coming months. ^[12]
Following the October update, the shares closed at a record high of S$10.05, marking eight straight sessions of gains. ^[13]

For investors following the “New Keppel” narrative, the 9M numbers reinforced that this is not just a story of multiple expansion – earnings and recurring cash flows have also been trending up.

4. Recent long-form analyses: growth drivers and risks

Several detailed analyses published in the last few months shape market sentiment:

“Keppel at Multi-Year Highs: Can Its Growth Story Continue?” (5 December 2025, The Smart Investor)
- Notes that Keppel hit a recent high of S$10.34, a level not seen for more than a decade. ^[14]
- Highlights the pivot from an offshore & marine–heavy conglomerate to a global asset manager and operator riding megatrends in clean energy, data centres and urbanisation.
- Flags that non-core legacy assets still contributed about 20% of operating profit in 1H 2025, so Keppel isn’t completely insulated from old‑economy cycles yet. ^[15]
- Calls out policy risk (for example, shifting US renewable‑energy policy) and the possibility of an “AI bubble” affecting data‑centre demand. ^[16]
“Keppel’s Investor Day 2025: 5 Things Investors Should Note” (May 2025, The Smart Investor)
- Management aims to grow funds under management (FUM) to S$200 billion by 2030, with an intermediate goal of S$100 billion by 2026 (up from about S$91 billion today). ^[17]
- Recurring income has already climbed from 21% of net profit in 2021 to 72% by 2024, underlining the shift to fee‑based and operating income. ^[18]
- Asset monetisation target of S$10–12 billion by 2026 has effectively been brought forward, with S$14 billion already unlocked. ^[19]
“3 Blue-Chip Stocks to Watch for December 2025” (1 December 2025, The Smart Investor)
- Frames Keppel as a key blue‑chip to watch this month, emphasising asset recycling, the planned M1 telco divestment, and the sale of waste‑management firm 800 Super, as signs of disciplined capital recycling. ^[20]
Simply Wall St (4 December 2025)
- Emphasises that the five‑year TSR of 291% reflects the combined impact of share‑price gains and regular dividends.
- Notes that Keppel moved from loss‑making to profitable over that period, but also points to “three warning signs” (not all disclosed publicly) to watch. ^[21]

Together, these pieces tell a consistent story: investors are rewarding execution of the asset‑light strategy, but they’re increasingly focused on how sustainable those drivers are.

Earnings snapshot: 1H 2025 and group mix

The first half of 2025 (1H 2025) laid the groundwork for the strong nine‑month numbers.

Different sources quote slightly different figures depending on whether they focus on “New Keppel” or total group profit, but they agree on the direction of travel: ^[22]

Revenue: around S$3.1 billion, down about 5% year‑on‑year.
Net profit: roughly S$380–430 million, up about 20–25% year‑on‑year.
Recurring income: about S$444 million, up around 7% year‑on‑year.
Annualised return on equity (ROE): about 15–15.5%.

By segment, DBS and other analysts note that Keppel’s earnings mix is now: ^[23]

Infrastructure – around 60–65% of group profit (integrated power, renewables, decarbonisation and environmental solutions).
Real Estate – roughly 20–25% (asset‑light development, fund platforms, urban renewal).
Connectivity – about 15% (data centres, subsea cables and what remains of M1’s ICT-related business).

Despite lower topline, margins have expanded as Keppel shifts away from capital‑intensive project work towards a mix of asset‑management fees and operating income. The Smart Investor estimates operating margins for the group at about 20% and net margins around 12% in 1H 2025, up from mid‑single digits just a few years ago. ^[24]

Asset monetisation: M1 sale, 800 Super exit and more

Capital recycling remains central to Keppel’s equity story.

Key 2025 moves include:

Proposed sale of M1’s telco business to Simba Telecom
- Valued at around S$1.3–1.4 billion enterprise value, expected to release close to S$1 billion in net cash once completed (subject to regulatory approval). ^[25]
- Keppel will retain M1’s ICT and enterprise‑solutions arm, which better fits its connectivity and digital‑infrastructure strategy. ^[26]
Sale of 40.5% stake in waste‑management company 800 Super
- Transaction size about S$184 million, valuing 800 Super at more than S$600 million.
- Keppel booked around 20% EBITDA growth and a mid‑teens IRR over its holding period, plus capital gains equivalent to roughly half its initial investment. ^[27]
Real estate monetisation
- Around S$830 million of real estate assets monetised in 9M 2025, including partial disposals such as Vietnam’s Saigon Centre Phase 3 and other properties, as Keppel pivots to capital‑light asset management. ^[28]

Cumulatively, Keppel has unlocked about S$14 billion of assets since October 2020, above the initial S$10–12 billion target set for 2026, and is targeting another S$500+ million in the near term. ^[29]

For equity investors, monetisation matters because it frees up capital to pay down debt, fund share buybacks and reinvest in higher‑return projects like renewables and data centres.

Dividends, total returns and income profile

Keppel has evolved into a moderate‑yield dividend stock with growing buyback support.

Dividend track record

StockInvest’s dividend history and Beansprout’s analysis show that: ^[30]

For FY 2024, Keppel paid S$0.34 per share (S$0.19 final + S$0.15 interim).
For 2025 year‑to‑date, it has again declared S$0.19 (final for FY 2024, paid in May 2025) and S$0.15 (1H 2025 interim) – suggesting that, unless something changes, a full‑year S$0.34 is a reasonable base case.
At a share price around S$10.10, that implies a historical dividend yield of roughly 3.3–3.5%.
Beansprout notes that at slightly lower prices (~S$9.23), the historical yield was about 3.7%, already below Keppel’s past average given the rapid share‑price appreciation. ^[31]

Total shareholder returns

The combination of dividends, share‑price gains and special distributions (notably, in‑specie distributions linked to earlier restructuring) has driven very strong TSR:

Management and The Smart Investor estimate that since 2022, Keppel has returned about S$6.6 billion to shareholders via dividends and distributions, delivering an annualised TSR of around 38%, versus roughly 14.5% for the STI. ^[32]
Over five years, Simply Wall St estimates TSR of 291%, significantly exceeding the 5‑year broader market return of about 38%. ^[33]

Those numbers go a long way to explaining why Keppel now trades close to multi‑year highs and why valuation, not just growth, is on investors’ minds.

Analyst ratings and price targets

Local broker consensus

Beansprout aggregates Singapore broker research and, as of 10 December 2025, shows: ^[34]

Consensus target price:S$12.455
Implied upside vs current price (~S$10.10): about 23%
Overall stance: skewed to “Buy”/“Add”

Earlier 2025 reports from major houses such as CGSI, DBS, OCBC, Phillip Securities and UOB Kay Hian carried “Buy” or “Add” ratings with targets mostly in the S$8–9.30 range, issued when the stock was still below S$9. ^[35]

The consensus target has since moved up as the share price and earnings have surprised to the upside – but it does mean upside from here is narrower than it was at the start of 2025.

International coverage

TipRanks reports that the most recent analyst rating on Keppel (SGX: BN4) is a “Buy” with a S$11.00 target price. ^[36]
For the OTC‑traded ADR KPELY, MarketBeat shows coverage from just one Wall Street analyst, also rating the stock a “Buy”, with no meaningful consensus price target – coverage of the ADR remains thin. ^[37]

In short, the analyst community still leans constructively bullish, but investors are increasingly focused on execution and valuation discipline.

Technical outlook: what the charts are saying (without showing you charts)

Technical‑analysis site StockInvest.us currently labels Keppel (BN4.SI) a “Buy candidate”: ^[38]

Close on 9 December 2025: S$10.15, up 0.5% on the day.
The stock sits in the lower part of a strong short‑term rising trend, which they see as a potentially attractive entry zone if the trend holds.
Their model projects a potential 20% rise over the next three months, with a 90% probability range between roughly S$12.20 and S$13.27.
They note low daily volatility (~1.1%) and classify risk as “very low” in the context of their methodology.

These are quantitative, technical projections, not guarantees. They’re useful mainly to understand how systematic trading models might be positioned: as of now, many see Keppel as still trending higher, not yet in obvious breakdown territory.

Strategic transformation: from shipyards to sustainable assets

The deeper investment case rests less on next quarter’s earnings and more on Keppel’s multi‑year transformation.

An in‑depth CEO dialogue published by business school IMD in June 2025 charts how CEO Loh Chin Hua led Keppel from a conglomerate with cyclical offshore & marine exposure to an asset‑light global alternative asset manager and operator focused on sustainable urbanisation and digitalisation. ^[39]

Key elements:

Divesting offshore & marine (O&M)
- Keppel recognised early that the 2015 oil downturn was structural and eventually merged its O&M unit into Seatrium (formerly Sembcorp Marine), effectively exiting its original core business. ^[40]
Identifying non-core assets
- Management identified about S$17.5 billion of assets that the company didn’t need to own, even if they were profitable, and set about monetising them while often staying on as operator or manager via funds and REITs. ^[41]
Reorganising into three horizontal platforms
- By January 2024, Keppel was reorganised into three integrated platforms – Infrastructure, Real Estate and Connectivity – supported by shared investment and fund‑management functions. ^[42]
Sustainability as commercial opportunity
- Projects like Keppel Bay Tower, retrofitted into a net‑zero energy building, are used as proof‑of‑concept that energy efficiency can raise asset values, not just meet ESG goals. ^[43]

Investor Day 2025 and subsequent updates show that this transformation isn’t just narrative:

FUM increased from ~S$55 billion to ~S$88 billion by 2024, helped by the acquisition of European manager Aermont Capital, and has now reached about S$91 billion with a target of S$200 billion by 2030. ^[44]
Recurring income now makes up well over two‑thirds of net profit, up from around 20% three years ago. ^[45]

For the Keppel share price to keep moving higher from already‑elevated levels, management will have to keep proving this model scales – especially in high‑growth areas such as renewables and digital infrastructure.

Key risks investors are watching

Recent articles and management commentary flag several risk areas:

Execution risk in asset recycling
- There’s a S$14.4 billion portfolio of legacy and non-core assets still being monetised. If Keppel cannot sell these at attractive prices, earnings and capital‑recycling assumptions could disappoint. ^[46]
Dependence on still‑profitable “old” assets
- Non-core businesses – including residual O&M exposures – still contributed about 20% of operating profit in 1H 2025. A sharp downturn in energy markets or shipping cycles could dent these earnings before they are sold. ^[47]
Macro and policy headwinds in renewables and data centres
- Shifts in US renewable‑energy policy and the possibility of an AI or data‑centre spending slowdown are cited as medium‑term risks to some of Keppel’s biggest growth engines. ^[48]
Competition for capital in alternative assets
- Keppel is competing with global heavyweights such as Brookfield, Macquarie and IFM for investor capital in infrastructure and renewables. That can compress fee margins and make fundraising slower or more cyclical. ^[49]
Valuation risk after multi‑year outperformance
- With five‑year TSR near 300% and the stock at multi‑year highs, any earnings miss, delay in asset sales or negative macro shock could trigger a sharper‑than‑usual correction. ^[50]

None of these are catastrophic by themselves, but together they explain why many long‑term shareholders are now thinking less about “Is Keppel cheap?” and more about “Can it keep compounding at this rate?”

Bottom line: where does Keppel stock stand going into 2026?

Putting it all together as of 10 December 2025:

Fundamentals
- Profits are rising, recurring income is growing, and ROE is attractive in the mid‑teens. ^[51]
Strategy
- The old shipyard‑centric conglomerate has largely given way to a coherent asset‑light, fee‑driven platform in infrastructure, real estate and connectivity, with ambitious FUM goals. ^[52]
Capital allocation
- Management is recycling billions of dollars of capital, paying steady dividends, and buying back shares under a sizeable programme. ^[53]
Market view
- Analysts remain constructive, with consensus targets in the low‑to‑mid S$12 range and local brokers largely on “Buy” or “Add,” even after strong gains. ^[54]
Price action
- Technical models still see Keppel as an up‑trend stock with potential for further appreciation, albeit from a higher starting base. ^[55]

That combination – solid fundamentals, clear strategy, shareholder‑friendly capital allocation and strong price momentum – is exactly what has put Keppel on the radar of global investors in 2025.

The flip side is that expectations are now much higher. Future returns will depend on whether Keppel can:

Continue to execute asset sales at good prices,
Deploy capital into high‑return renewable, data‑centre and urbanisation projects, and
Grow FUM and fee income without overpaying or diluting returns.

For existing shareholders, Keppel has already been a standout winner. For prospective investors, the key question is no longer whether this is a turnaround story – that part is largely proven – but whether today’s valuation still leaves enough room for attractive risk‑adjusted returns over the next five years.