Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96) Share Price: Alinta Energy Talks, Renewables Growth and 2026 Stock Forecast

As of the afternoon of 10 December 2025, Sembcorp Industries Ltd (SGX: U96) sits at the intersection of three big storylines:

a possible multi‑billion‑dollar acquisition of Australia’s Alinta Energy,
a deepening pivot into renewables and green hydrogen, and
a market that’s trying to decide whether recent earnings disappointments are a bump in the road or the start of something nastier.

Below is a rundown of the latest share price action, key news, analyst forecasts and valuation – all up to date as of 10 December 2025.

Where Sembcorp’s share price stands today

On 10 December 2025, Sembcorp Industries’ shares were trading around S$5.80 on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) during afternoon trade, down about 1% on the day and continuing a mild pullback that began in late November. ^[1]

The previous close on 9 December was S$5.86, meaning the stock is down roughly 4–5% from the S$6.08–S$6.10 range seen at the start of December. ^[2]
Technical site StockInvest notes that the share price has fallen in seven of the last ten sessions, with a cumulative decline of about 4.25% over that period, and recently upgraded its stance from “sell” to “hold / accumulate” after the 9 December session. ^[3]

Looking slightly further back:

In late October, Sembcorp traded around S$6.60, so today’s price is roughly 12% below that recent high. ^[4]
Over November 2025, The Smart Investor calculates that Sembcorp delivered a –7.1% total return, making it one of three notable blue‑chip laggards that month. ^[5]
Over the last decade, Smart Investor also estimates Sembcorp’s total return compound annual growth rate at about 15.3%, edging out DBS’s 14.8%. ^[6]
Over five years, a separate analysis on Yahoo Finance pegs Sembcorp’s total shareholder return (TSR) at around 275%, reflecting the stock’s huge rerating since its 2020 demerger from Seatrium (ex‑Sembcorp Marine). ^[7]

So the short version: short‑term wobble, long‑term monster run.

Big story #1 – Alinta Energy talks put strategy in the spotlight

The single biggest “live” narrative on 10 December is Sembcorp’s ongoing talks to buy Australian utility Alinta Energy.

What’s been reported

Australian business press and Reuters‑linked summaries report that:

Sembcorp is in advanced negotiations to acquire Alinta Energy in a deal that could be worth more than A$6 billion (~US$4 billion). ^[8]
A key sticking point is whether the deal includes Loy Yang B, a large coal‑fired power station in Victoria and one of Australia’s more carbon‑intensive plants – which would obviously clash with Sembcorp’s aggressive decarbonisation and renewables‑growth targets. ^[9]
The Australian coverage notes that Goldman Sachs is advising Sembcorp, while RBC and UBS are working with Alinta’s current owner, Chow Tai Fook. ^[10]

What Sembcorp itself has said

On 8 December 2025, Sembcorp filed a clarification with the Singapore Exchange (SGX), echoed in Singapore Business Review, stating that: ^[11]

It is “currently considering potential acquisition opportunities which include Alinta Energy”;
It is in ongoing discussions with relevant parties;
It has not entered into any definitive agreement, and
There is no certainty a transaction will take place; if there is material progress, it will update shareholders accordingly.

So at this point, the Alinta deal is a live possibility, not a done deal.

Why the market cares

Alinta comes with both glitter and baggage:

Upside: Alinta has over 1.1 million customers and a mix of gas, renewables and retail assets across Australia. It could instantly give Sembcorp greater scale in a developed power market and strengthen its regional presence. ^[12]
Downside: Any takeover structure that leaves Sembcorp with long‑lived coal assets (like Loy Yang B) would run against its own 25 GW by 2028 renewables target and net‑zero commitments, raising ESG and policy risk. ^[13]

In other words, the Alinta story is less about “Can Sembcorp afford it?” and more about “Can Sembcorp do this without breaking its green narrative?”

Big story #2 – India: IPO plans, solar deal and green hydrogen JV

While Australia hogs headlines, Sembcorp’s most important growth engine arguably remains India.

Planned IPO of Sembcorp’s India unit

A 24 November 2025 Reuters report says Sembcorp has begun preparations for an IPO of its India renewables arm (Sembcorp Green Infra) on the Mumbai market: ^[14]

Citi, HSBC and Axis Capital have reportedly been appointed as advisers.
The listing could come within 8–9 months, though deal size and final structure are still undecided.
This would be Sembcorp’s second attempt at listing the business after pulling an earlier prospectus in 2019. ^[15]

The India unit runs wind, solar and storage and competes with names like Adani Green Energy and Ayana. An IPO could:

Crystallise value in what is now one of Sembcorp’s core growth platforms;
Potentially reduce group leverage if part of the proceeds are upstreamed; and
Give Sembcorp listed “currency” in India for future mergers and acquisitions.

Rajasthan solar acquisition

On 8 October 2025, Sembcorp announced a deal to acquire ReNew’s 300 MW solar plant in Rajasthan for about US$190 million (≈ S$246 million). ^[16]

The plant operates under a 25‑year power purchase agreement (PPA) with a state utility.
Once completed, Sembcorp’s gross renewables capacity in India will rise to about 6.9 GW. ^[17]

Green hydrogen JV with Bharat Petroleum

In April 2025, Bharat Petroleum (BPCL) and a Sembcorp subsidiary launched a joint venture in India to pursue green hydrogen and renewable energy projects: ^[18]

The JV will look at green hydrogen and ammonia production, including bunkering and port decarbonisation.
It is explicitly aimed at supporting India’s targets of 500 GW of renewables and at least 5 million tonnes of green hydrogen per year by 2030. ^[19]

Taken together – a potential India IPO, new solar assets, and a green H₂ JV – Sembcorp is clearly doubling down on India as a core decarbonisation and growth market.

Financial performance: FY2024 and 1H2025

FY2024 – resilient profits, big dividend hike

Sembcorp’s FY2024 results, released in February 2025, paint a picture of stable profits despite lower revenue: ^[20]

Revenue: Around S$6.42 billion, down about 8.9% from FY2023.
Net profit:S$1.0 billion, up roughly 7% year‑on‑year, with net profit before exceptional items at about S$1.02 billion for the second year running.
The decline in revenue reflected planned maintenance at a Singapore cogeneration plant and lower wholesale power prices, partially offset by growth in renewables and integrated urban solutions. ^[21]
Management rewarded shareholders with a sharp dividend increase – a final dividend of 17.0 cents per share, bringing the total FY2024 dividend to 23.0 cents, up 77% from FY2023’s 13.0 cents. ^[22]

1H2025 – earnings wobble and share price shock

The first half of 2025 has been more uncomfortable for investors:

Sembcorp posted net profit of S$536 million for 1H2025, down marginally from S$543 million in 1H2024. Underlying net profit (before exceptional items) was S$491 million vs S$489 million. ^[23]
Turnover fell about 8% year‑on‑year to S$2.94 billion, with a 26% drop in core net profit before exceptional items, according to Smart Investor’s analysis. ^[24]
The main drag came from the Gas and Related Services business in Singapore and weaker pricing in China renewables, combined with FX headwinds from a stronger Singapore dollar. ^[25]
Despite this, Sembcorp raised its interim dividend to 9.0 cents (from 6.0 cents a year earlier). ^[26]

The market reaction was brutal:

On results day (8 August), Sembcorp’s share price fell about 13.9%, and slid another 3.1% the following trading day, according to Business Times and Beansprout. ^[27]

Maybank, for example, downgraded Sembcorp to “hold” on 11 August, trimming its target price from S$7.10 to S$6.40 and warning of downside risks to earnings from lower gas spreads and policy uncertainty in China and Vietnam – even while noting that core income remains “resilient” thanks to new renewables capacity. ^[28]

Dividends, valuation and balance sheet

Dividend profile

Based on Sembcorp’s official dividend history: ^[29]

2024 dividends:
- Final dividend: 17.0 cents per share (paid May 2025)
- Interim 2024 dividend: 6.0 cents per share
- Total FY2024 payout: 23.0 cents per share
1H2025 dividend:
- Interim dividend: 9.0 cents per share (ex‑date 15 Aug 2025, paid 26 Aug 2025)

So, over the last 12 months, shareholders have actually received about 26.0 cents per share (17.0c final 2024 + 9.0c interim 2025).

At a share price of around S$5.80, that implies a trailing 12‑month dividend yield of roughly 4.5% – assuming no further cuts or one‑offs. ^[30]

MarketScreener’s forward estimates show an expected dividend yield of around 4.1–4.3% for 2025–2026, broadly consistent with that trailing figure. ^[31]

Valuation

Different data providers disagree on the exact decimal places (they always do), but they generally cluster around:

Market cap: ~S$10–11 billion, given ~1.78 billion shares outstanding. ^[32]
Trailing P/E (TTM):around 10–11×
- GuruFocus cites 10.9× as of late November. ^[33]
- Yahoo Finance shows P/E in the 10.5–10.9× band with EPS around S$0.56. ^[34]
- ShareInvestor lists a P/E near 10.2× with trailing EPS about S$0.57. ^[35]
Price‑to‑book:~1.7–2.0×, based on NAV per share of roughly S$2.94 and current prices. ^[36]
Net debt: Around S$8.4 billion, equivalent to net‑debt‑to‑equity of roughly 1.5×, according to ShareInvestor metrics. ^[37]

So Sembcorp doesn’t look obviously “penny‑cheap” on headline multiples, but sits in the mid‑teens ROE, ~10× earnings, ~4–5% yield zone – a kind of “growthy utility” valuation rather than a boring bond‑proxy.

What are analysts forecasting?

Street price targets and earnings forecasts

ValueInvesting.io aggregates 18 analysts and shows: ^[38]

Average 12‑month target price:S$7.58
Target range:S$6.46 (low) to S$8.51 (high)
That implies about 28% upside versus a reference price of S$5.90 (the site’s last quote).
Consensus recommendation: “BUY” (0 sell / 5 hold / 8 buy / 5 strong buy).

Simply Wall St’s model suggests analysts expect, on average: ^[39]

Earnings growth: ~5.6% per year over the next few years.
Revenue growth: ~4.5% per year.
EPS growth: around 5.2% per year.
Return on equity (ROE): rising towards ~16–17% by 2027.

Their forecast table shows 2025–2027 revenues in the S$6.3–6.9 billion range with earnings gradually climbing above S$1.1 billion by 2026–2027. ^[40]

MarketScreener’s compiled estimates broadly line up with this, implying: ^[41]

Forward P/E dipping below 10× by 2026,
Dividend yield inching towards 4.3–4.4%, and
Stable or gently rising earnings despite revenue pressures.

Other flavours of analysis include:

TradingView’s forecast page notes that, over the last three months, most of 7 tracked analysts rate the stock a “buy”, with targets centred in the mid‑S$7s. ^[42]
StockInvest’s technical model currently classifies Sembcorp as a “hold / accumulate”: price is in a horizontal range, RSI is oversold, moving averages show a negative trend, and they see a 90% probability that the price trades roughly between S$5.91 and S$6.68 over the next three months. ^[43]

In short, the fundamental consensus is positive, while near‑term technicals look tired, which matches what the price chart is quietly screaming.

Structural growth themes: energy transition and renewables

Sembcorp is no longer the old mix‑and‑match conglomerate it once was. Post‑demerger and post‑strategy reset, its story is anchored on the energy transition.

Key elements:

A 2023–2028 strategic plan targets 25 GW of gross installed renewables capacity by 2028, alongside a 50% cut in emissions intensity versus 2023 levels and net‑zero by 2050. ^[44]
As of mid‑2025, Sembcorp’s portfolio comprised about 27.0 GW of energy generation, including 18.9 GW of renewables, across 11 countries – meaning renewables already form the majority of its capacity. ^[45]
The company has been exiting thermal coal (for example, selling Indian coal assets in 2023) and recycling capital into wind, solar, storage and urban solutions. ^[46]

Recent deals and contracts reinforce that direction:

The planned India unit IPO, the ReNew solar acquisition in Rajasthan and the BPCL green hydrogen JV all deepen Sembcorp’s footprint in renewables and low‑carbon infrastructure. ^[47]
In May 2025, Reuters reported that Sembcorp signed over S$650 million in contracts to provide energy and utilities to Aster Chemicals & Energy, highlighting steady demand for its integrated solutions across Singapore’s industrial clusters. ^[48]

This is the backdrop against which the Alinta Energy talks are being judged: does Sembcorp end up with an Australian platform that accelerates the transition, or does it take on a coal headache that investors and regulators are likely to scrutinise closely?

Ownership structure and shareholder base

Sembcorp is very much a “national champion plus public float” sort of stock:

Temasek Holdings, Singapore’s state investment firm, together with related investment vehicles, controls about half the company’s equity, according to shareholder breakdowns compiled by Simply Wall St and other data sources. ^[49]
The general public and institutional investors hold most of the remainder, with board members and insiders owning a smaller but still meaningful stake measured in the low hundreds of millions of Singapore dollars. ^[50]

This combination tends to give Sembcorp access to capital and policy dialogue, but also raises expectations around ESG alignment and execution discipline.

Key risks to watch from here

Even with the growth narrative, there are real, non‑imaginary risks:

Earnings sensitivity to power prices and spreads
1H2025 showed how quickly profits can soften when Singapore power spreads compress or China renewables face price and curtailment pressure. ^[51]
Balance sheet leverage and capex needs
Net debt around S$8.4 billion and a net‑debt‑to‑equity ratio of about 1.5× are manageable but not trivial, especially if Sembcorp takes on a major transaction like Alinta while still funding a large renewables pipeline. ^[52]
Regulatory and policy risk
- In March 2025, Sembcorp terminated a planned Indonesian gas import deal due to regulatory roadblocks, though it said the earnings impact for 2025 would be immaterial. ^[53]
- Maybank’s broker note highlights possible future headwinds from Singapore’s centralised gas procurement, changing tariffs in China and Vietnam, and potential impairments in renewables if policy changes bite. ^[54]
Execution risk in M&A
Big cross‑border deals (Alinta, Indian acquisitions, potential joint ventures) come with integration, political and ESG risk. For a company that has carefully rebuilt its image as a green‑leaning utility, one badly structured deal could undermine years of narrative work.

So what does 10 December 2025 really tell us about Sembcorp stock?

Putting it all together:

Short term:
- The stock has corrected from the mid‑S$6s to the high‑S$5s on softer 1H2025 numbers and lingering worries about gas margins and China renewables. ^[55]
- Technicals are weak but stabilising, with some models moving from “sell” to “hold / accumulate”. ^[56]
Medium term (1–3 years):
- Street consensus still expects mid‑single‑digit earnings growth, ROE in the mid‑teens, and moderate upside to target prices in the mid‑S$7s – assuming execution on renewables and no nasty surprises in gas or policy. ^[57]
Long term (beyond 2028):
- If Sembcorp hits its 25 GW renewables target, manages leverage sensibly, and navigates deals like Alinta without over‑embracing coal, it remains one of Asia’s more interesting energy‑transition plays, with a long history of value creation since 2020’s restructuring. ^[58]