Wilmar International (SGX: F34) Share Price and Forecast: Indonesia Fine, Q3 Loss and Insider Buying Shape 2025 Outlook

SINGAPORE – December 10, 2025 – Wilmar International Limited (SGX: F34), one of Asia’s biggest agribusiness groups, is trading just above S$3 a share after a turbulent year marked by a record legal penalty in Indonesia, a rare quarterly net loss – and sizeable insider share purchases by its co‑founder.

For investors tracking Wilmar stock on SGX and the ADR (OTCMKTS: WLMIY), the picture today is a mix of legal overhang, improving core earnings, and cautiously optimistic analyst forecasts.

Wilmar share price today: around S$3 with high yield and low beta

Wilmar’s Singapore-listed shares last closed at about S$3.04 on 9 December 2025, down roughly 0.7% on the day. ^[1]

Key share-price metrics:

1‑month performance: down about 6.7%
Year-to-date (2025): roughly –2%
1‑year performance: slightly negative (around –1%)
5‑year performance: down about 28%, reflecting a long de-rating from earlier peaks. ^[2]

On fundamentals at current levels:

Market capitalisation: ~S$19.1 billion
Trailing P/E (TTM): around 12.1x
Indicated dividend yield: about 4.6%
Beta (1Y): ~0.36, signalling lower volatility than broad equity markets. ^[3]

StockInvest.us, which focuses on technical setups, classifies Wilmar as a “hold / accumulate” candidate: the stock has fallen in 7 of the last 10 sessions and is down about 6.5% over that period, with support flagged near S$2.93 and resistance around S$3.12–S$3.20. ^[4]

On the US OTC market, ADR WLMIY recently gapped down to about US$23.73 from a US$24.62 close, trading slightly below its 50‑day moving average (US$23.79) but still above its 200‑day moving average (US$23.36), another sign of a neutral technical trend. ^[5]

Indonesia cooking oil case: a nine‑year low and a US$347.7 million Q3 loss

The dominant story for Wilmar in 2025 has been its legal troubles in Indonesia related to the 2021–2022 cooking oil shortage.

In April 2024, Indonesia’s Attorney‑General’s Office brought corruption charges against Wilmar subsidiaries over alleged misuse of export permits for cooking oil and palm oil. ^[6]
Wilmar had already placed an 11.9 trillion rupiah (about S$926–928 million) security deposit with the authorities – nearly two‑thirds of its 2024 net income – pending the outcome of the case. ^[7]
A Central Jakarta Court initially acquitted Wilmar in March 2025, but Indonesia’s Supreme Court later overturned that verdict and ordered the deposit forfeited, along with a smaller 1 billion rupiah fine on subsidiary PT Wilmar Nabati Indonesia. ^[8]

When the adverse ruling became public in late September, Wilmar shares fell to their lowest levels since 2016 on an intraday basis, before paring losses. ^[9]

As flagged in its guidance, Wilmar then reported a rare net loss of US$347.7 million for 3Q 2025, reversing a US$254.4 million profit a year earlier – almost entirely due to the 11.9 trillion rupiah payment being recognised as an expense. ^[10]

Crucially, however, underlying operations were strong:

Q3 2025 core net profit (excluding the penalty) jumped 71.6% year-on-year to US$357.2 million, driven by stronger performance across all core segments and higher contributions from joint ventures and associates.
Revenue rose 7.4% to US$19.1 billion, with higher sales volumes in both Food Products and Feed & Industrial Products.
Food products volume increased to 9.3 million tonnes (from 8.7 million), and feed & industrial products rose to 18.8 million tonnes (from 18.2 million). ^[11]

For the first nine months of 2025:

Reported net profit fell 70.4% to US$247 million due to the Indonesian charge.
Core net profit, however, rose 15.5% to US$940.9 million, underscoring a fundamental earnings recovery beneath the legal noise.
Net gearing improved from 0.94x to 0.82x, with net debt falling to US$16.5 billion as working capital needs eased, backed by US$4 billion of operating cash flows and US$36.9 billion of unused banking facilities. ^[12]

Management has stated it is “cautiously optimistic” that full‑year 2025 performance will remain satisfactory, barring adverse policy changes, and still expects to be profitable for the year despite the one‑off hit. ^[13]

Legal and ESG overhangs now include China

The Indonesia case is not the only legal risk on investors’ radar.

In late November, a Chinese court found a unit of Yihai Kerry Arawana (YKA) – Wilmar’s China‑listed subsidiary – guilty of contract fraud, with potential liability of about 1.88 billion yuan (~S$346 million). ^[14]

Key developments since:

YKA has lodged an appeal against the first‑instance criminal judgment, according to Wilmar’s SGX announcements. ^[15]
Aletheia Capital subsequently downgraded Wilmar to “sell” and cut its target price from S$3.49 to S$2.50, arguing that the piling up of legal issues – from Indonesia’s cooking oil case to the China verdict – complicates the earnings recovery narrative and limits balance‑sheet flexibility. ^[16]
RHB previously downgraded Wilmar to “sell” as well, trimming its target from S$2.75 to S$2.50, citing a roughly 65% hit to 2025 earnings from the Indonesian penalty and ESG concerns. ^[17]

A separate legal case in Indonesia also saw the general manager of subsidiary Duta Sugar International convicted over unlawful raw sugar imports, though Wilmar has said the associated 41.2 billion rupiah deposit is not material to group financials. ^[18]

The bottom line: Wilmar’s fundamentals are improving, but multiple legal proceedings in Indonesia and China remain a significant valuation overhang.

Insider buying: Kuok Khoon Hong doubles down on the dip

Despite the legal noise, Wilmar’s co‑founder, chairman and CEO Kuok Khoon Hong has been a notable buyer of the stock in 2025.

Around late September, shortly after the Indonesian Supreme Court ruling, Kuok bought about S$2.7 million worth of Wilmar shares via linked entities, lifting his stake to roughly 14.4% even as the share price dropped nearly 4%. ^[19]
In October, he purchased a further S$3.8 million of shares at an average price of about S$2.82, in what Simply Wall St describes as the largest individual insider purchase in Wilmar over the past 12 months. ^[20]

According to Simply Wall St’s analysis, insiders collectively own around 14% of the company, worth about S$2.6 billion at recent prices, and there has been no insider selling reported over the past year – a supportive signal for alignment with minority shareholders. ^[21]

Governance shift: risk and sustainability committees now fully independent

In early December 2025, Wilmar announced an important governance reshuffle:

Kuok Khoon Hong will step down as a member of both the Risk Management Committee and the Board Sustainability Committee, effective December 1, 2025. ^[22]
Former Singapore foreign minister George Yong‑Boon Yeo has been appointed to the Risk Management Committee.
Corporate‑governance veteran Soh Gim Teik has joined the Board Sustainability Committee. ^[23]
Following these changes, Wilmar’s Risk Management Committee is now composed entirely of independent directors, in line with widely recognised governance best practice. ^[24]

The company frames the move as a step to provide “more robust and objective oversight of risk-related matters” at the board level. ^[25]

On the ESG front, Wilmar has also highlighted that it maintained a top global ranking in a major child protection benchmark in October 2025, the only company to score a perfect 10/10, according to its investor relations site – a rare positive headline in a year otherwise dominated by legal disputes. ^[26]

Strategic expansion: Adani Wilmar (AWL) and Nigeria’s PZ Wilmar

While dealing with legal issues, Wilmar has continued to execute on long‑term strategic moves in India and Africa.

Adani Wilmar / AWL Agri Business – towards majority control in India

Wilmar and India’s Adani Group have gradually been unpicking their long‑standing consumer goods joint venture, Adani Wilmar (now AWL Agri Business):

In December 2024, Wilmar’s wholly owned subsidiary Lence Pte Ltd secured anoption to acquire up to 31.06% of Adani Wilmar from Adani Commodities at a maximum price of ₹305 per share. ^[27]
In January 2025, Adani announced plans to sell up to 20% of its stake to the public via an offer for sale, as part of a broader plan to exit the consumer foods business and meet India’s free‑float rules. ^[28]
On 17 July 2025, Adani Enterprises said it would sell 20% of AWL Agri to Wilmar at ₹275 per share, with Wilmar emerging as the majority shareholder in the listed Indian edible oil and food company. ^[29]
Wilmar expects to book a US$1.23 billion gain from the deal, and AWL’s share price jumped roughly 6–8% on the news. ^[30]

More recently, Adani Enterprises completed the sale of a 13% stake in AWL to Wilmar’s Lence subsidiary for ₹4,646 crore (~US$556 million), cementing Wilmar’s control of the business. ^[31]

For investors, AWL gives Wilmar a powerful platform in India’s fast‑growing packaged food and edible oils market, though integration and execution risks remain.

PZ Wilmar – full control of Nigerian joint venture

In June 2025, Wilmar agreed to acquire PZ Cussons plc’s 50% stake in PZ Wilmar Limited, their Nigerian palm‑oil and consumer goods joint venture, for US$70 million. ^[32]

Once completed, Wilmar will own 100% of PZ Wilmar, deepening its exposure to West Africa’s growing demand for cooking oil and branded food products.

These deals collectively signal that Wilmar is doubling down on scale in key emerging markets even while dealing with legal setbacks elsewhere.

Dividends: steady payouts, moderate yield

Despite 2025’s legal hit, Wilmar has continued paying dividends:

Interim dividend (Aug 2025): S$0.04 per share
Final / main dividend (May 2025): S$0.10 per share
Total 2025 payout so far: S$0.14 per share, versus S$0.17 in 2024. ^[33]

At a share price around S$3.04, that implies a trailing yield of roughly 4.5–4.6%, broadly consistent with TradingView’s indicated yield of 4.58%. ^[34]

For income‑oriented investors, Wilmar still looks like a mid‑single‑digit yield play, though any future fines or large acquisitions could influence dividend policy.

Analyst ratings: mostly “Hold”, with upside but wide dispersion

Across the various research platforms, the message is fairly consistent: Wilmar is not a consensus buy, but nor is it an obvious sell.

Street consensus

Investing.com collates views from 12 analysts, with an overall “Neutral” rating:
- 3 Buy, 7 Hold, 2 Sell
- Average 12‑month target price: ~S$3.18
- High estimate: about S$3.59
- Low estimate: around S$2.49. ^[35]
TipRanks shows 6 analysts on Wilmar (SGX: F34) with a consensus “Hold”:
- Average target: about S$3.11–3.12
- High: S$3.59
- Low: S$2.50. ^[36]
Fintel reports an average one‑year target of about S$3.34, with a range from roughly S$3.03 to S$3.78, implying mid‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit upside from current levels. ^[37]

Local broker calls

Singapore‑focused aggregator SGinvestors.io, which tracks research from local brokerages, suggests:

Recent target prices from major brokers cluster between S$3.00 and S$3.58, with a median around S$3.25 and average near S$3.27, implying about 7% upside from ~S$3.05 at the time of compilation. ^[38]
DBS rates Wilmar “Buy” with a S$3.00 target (cut from S$3.80 previously).
Maybank sits at “Hold”, also with a S$3.00 target, down from S$3.65. ^[39]

On the bearish side:

RHB and Aletheia Capital both sit at “Sell” with target prices of S$2.50, primarily on concerns over the Indonesian and Chinese legal cases and their impact on earnings and ESG scores. ^[40]

There are also valuation models – for example, Simply Wall St’s discounted cash flow estimate earlier this year suggested a “fair value” near S$4.45, implying large upside versus then-prevailing prices, but such DCF outputs are highly sensitive to assumptions and should be treated as rough guides rather than precise targets. ^[41]

Technical outlook: oversold, with scope for a rebound

From a short‑term technical perspective:

StockInvest.us notes that Wilmar has been in a short‑term downtrend, with both short‑ and long‑term moving averages currently giving sell signals and a prior pivot top in mid‑November still exerting downward pressure. ^[42]
However, the 14‑day RSI sits around 11, a deeply oversold reading by their measure. Historically, such low RSI levels often precede at least a technical bounce. ^[43]

Their model projects:

A potential 14–15% rise over the next three months, with a 90% confidence range of S$3.49–S$4.00 if the broader trend stabilises.
A suggested risk level (stop‑loss) near S$2.88, with notable support around S$2.93 and resistance at S$3.15 and above. ^[44]

Taken together with the ADR trading around its key moving averages in the US market, the technical picture can fairly be described as neutral-to-cautiously constructive, but still hostage to legal headlines. ^[45]

Key risks and catalysts to watch

For investors following Wilmar International into 2026, the main variables likely to drive the share price include:

Legal outcomes and provisions
- Any judicial review or negotiations around the Indonesian cooking oil penalty that might reduce or reclassify the charge. ^[46]
- The outcome of YKA’s appeal in China and potential additional provisions or fines. ^[47]
Operational momentum
- Whether Wilmar can maintain its strong core profit growth despite softer commodity prices and geopolitical uncertainty.
- Performance of key consumer markets in China, India and Africa, where Wilmar has been expanding branded food and edible oil businesses. ^[48]
Integration of AWL and PZ Wilmar
- Realising synergies and margin gains from majority control of India’s AWL and full ownership of Nigeria’s PZ Wilmar, without overstretching the balance sheet. ^[49]
ESG and governance perception
- How investors respond to the new fully independent risk committee and sustainability oversight, and whether Wilmar can shift the narrative from legal scandals back to its recognised sustainability initiatives (such as its child protection benchmark leadership). ^[50]
Dividend policy and capital allocation
- The sustainability of a 4–5% dividend yield alongside significant legal payouts and M&A spending, and whether buybacks or further deleveraging become priorities.

Conclusion: Wilmar stock at a crossroads

As of 10 December 2025, Wilmar International sits at an inflection point:

Core operations are robust, with double‑digit growth in underlying earnings, strong cash flows, and multi‑continent expansion. ^[51]
Legal and ESG headwinds are serious, with large penalties already booked in Indonesia and a major case pending appeal in China. ^[52]
Insiders are buying, not selling, and governance has been tightened by making the risk committee fully independent. ^[53]
Analysts, on balance, recommend “Hold”, with moderate upside in their price targets but plenty of dispersion between bulls and bears. ^[54]

For investors, Wilmar today is neither a straightforward value trap nor a clean growth story. It is a complex, globally important agribusiness trading at a reasonable multiple, with attractive yield and scale, but carrying legal baggage that could still surprise on the downside.