Godfrey Phillips India Share Price Today: Bonus-Fuelled Rally, Q2 FY26 Results, Tax Headwinds and Analyst Targets (10 December 2025)

Published: 10 December 2025

Godfrey Phillips India stock today: volatile but still a multi‑bagger

Godfrey Phillips India Ltd (NSE: GODFRYPHLP, BSE: 500163) remains one of the most closely watched mid-cap names in India’s tobacco and FMCG space after an extraordinary 2025 rally, punctuated by a bonus issue, strong earnings and fresh regulatory noise on tobacco taxation.

On 10 December 2025, the stock is trading in the ₹2,850–₹2,900 zone on the NSE, up roughly 3–4% intraday, with the day’s range broadly between ₹2,750 and ₹2,940 according to live tick data from market trackers. ^[1]

After its 2:1 bonus issue and a powerful run earlier in the year, Godfrey Phillips’ 52‑week high stands at around ₹3,945 (bonus‑adjusted), versus a 52‑week low near ₹1,370, making it a more‑than‑doubling stock over the last twelve months. ^[2]

Trading volumes have been healthy; intraday updates show the stock featuring among actively traded mid caps, with price action outpacing the broader FMCG and benchmark indices at several points during the session. ^[3]

A blockbuster 2025: Q1 bonus issue, ex‑bonus spike and Q3 momentum

The stock’s re‑rating through 2025 has been driven by a sequence of bullish corporate events:

Q1 FY26 (June 2025):
- Consolidated net profit surged about 56% year‑on‑year to ~₹356 crore, versus ~₹229 crore a year earlier.
- The board announced a 2:1 bonus issue (two bonus equity shares for every one share held), with record date fixed at 16 September 2025. ^[4]
- On the announcement day, the stock reportedly jumped around 10% intraday, signalling strong investor enthusiasm for both the earnings trajectory and the shareholder‑friendly action. ^[5]
16 September 2025: Ex‑bonus fireworks
- On turning ex‑bonus, shares soared about 16% intraday, hitting a record high of ~₹3,945 on the BSE (bonus‑adjusted).
- From its 52‑week low of roughly ₹1,370 in January 2025, the stock had rallied close to 190% by mid‑September, massively outperforming the broader market. ^[6]
Earlier in 2025 (Q3 FY25):
- The company reported roughly 49% year‑on‑year growth in net profit for Q3 FY25, which triggered a sharp rally, with the stock gaining over 50% in just three sessions in February 2025, according to Business Standard coverage. ^[7]

Put together, 2025 has been the kind of year that can make a long‑term shareholder’s portfolio chart look like a mountaineering profile.

Q2 FY26 results: profit growth, flat revenue and cost discipline

Godfrey Phillips’ Q2 FY26 (September 2025) numbers, announced in early November, reinforced the narrative of resilient profitability:

Net profit: Consolidated profit rose about 22–23% year‑on‑year to ~₹305 crore, from ~₹248 crore in the same quarter last year. ^[8]
Revenue from operations: Around ₹1,632 crore, broadly flat year‑on‑year versus ~₹1,628 crore in Q2 FY25. ^[9]
Total income: Approximately ₹1,669 crore including other income. ^[10]
Expenses: Total expenses fell about 2.2% year‑on‑year to ~₹1,350 crore, supporting margin expansion. ^[11]

Third‑party fundamental tools note that on a trailing‑twelve‑month (TTM) basis (up to September 2025), Godfrey Phillips has delivered:

Revenue TTM of ~₹7,200 crore and
Net profit TTM above ₹1,030 crore,
with consolidated operating margins near 21–22%, continuing a long trend of double‑digit margin stability. ^[12]

Importantly, Q2 did show a sequential (QoQ) cooling in performance after a very strong Q1: Smart‑Investing’s quarterly dashboard highlights mid‑to‑high‑teens QoQ declines in profit and lower revenue versus Q1, even though year‑on‑year trends remain positive. ^[13]

Dividend update: fat interim payout on the back of strong earnings

Alongside Q2 results, the board declared a hefty interim dividend:

Interim dividend: 850% of face value, i.e. ₹17 per share on a face value of ₹2. ^[14]
Record date: 10 November 2025, with the company guiding that the payout would be completed within 30 days of the board meeting on 3 November. ^[15]

The company has a long record of paying regular dividends; Simply Wall St notes a decade‑plus dividend history and a three‑year median payout ratio of ~38%, implying that around 62% of earnings are being reinvested while still rewarding shareholders in cash. ^[16]

That combination – high return on equity plus meaningful reinvestment and steady dividends – is a big part of why long‑term investors keep this stock on their radar.

Business profile: more than just cigarettes

While cigarettes remain the core, Godfrey Phillips increasingly looks like a diversified tobacco‑adjacent FMCG and export platform:

Manufactures and trades cigarettes and tobacco products under brands such as Four Square, Red & White, Cavanders, Stellar, Focus and Originals, and also manufactures and distributes Marlboro in India under license from Philip Morris. ^[17]
Operates in segments like cigarettes & tobacco, retail & related products, and others, including confectionery and unmanufactured tobacco trading. ^[18]
Its longstanding partnership with Philip Morris International and a supply arrangement with Ferrero India for sweet packaged foods help diversify revenue beyond cigarettes and strengthen its distribution moat, according to the company’s annual report excerpts summarised in Business Standard. ^[19]

The company is widely described as the flagship of the Modi Enterprises / KK Modi group, with Philip Morris holding a strategic stake. ^[20]

Fundamental quality: high ROE, strong growth and a clean balance sheet

Multiple independent analytics platforms converge on one conclusion: fundamentals are strong.

From Screener and Simply Wall St data:

10‑year sales CAGR: about 8%; 5‑year sales CAGR ~14%.
10‑year profit CAGR: around 19%; 5‑year profit CAGR ~24%, with TTM profit growth close to 30%. ^[21]
ROE (Return on Equity): about 22% for the twelve months to September 2025, broadly in line with the tobacco sector average, but coupled with higher‑than‑industry net income growth (~27% vs 18% over five years). ^[22]
Leverage: Consolidated debt‑to‑equity is near 0.01, effectively debt‑free, with no promoter pledging as of FY25/Sep 2025. ^[23]

Return metrics are equally robust: Screener reports ROCE (Return on Capital Employed) improving into the mid‑20s, and a last‑year ROE around 20%, consistent with the high‑quality label often attached to the franchise. ^[24]

Ownership and flows: promoter control, rising domestic institutions

Shareholding data from Screener for the quarter ended September 2025 shows: ^[25]

Promoters: steady at 72.58%.
FIIs (foreign institutions): down over time to about 7.9%.
DIIs (domestic institutions): rising to roughly 4.1%.
Public & others: around 15–16%.

An ETMarkets portfolio analysis further highlighted Godfrey Phillips as a mutual‑fund favourite in September 2025:

Number of MF schemes holding the stock increased from 71 (August) to 98 (September).
The MF market value in the stock was around ₹1,906 crore, with CY25 price returns of about 87% at that point. ^[26]

So even though FIIs have trimmed exposure somewhat, domestic institutional participation is clearly rising, which typically supports better liquidity and visibility.

Valuation: strong business, expensive stock?

This is where the story gets more complicated. Virtually every quantitative valuation site currently flags Godfrey Phillips India as richly valued:

Smart‑Investing assigns “Fundamentals: Good” but “Valuation: Bad (Stock is Expensive)”, with:
- P/E (TTM) ≈ 41.8x
- P/B ≈ 8.3x
- P/S ≈ 6.0x, all on a consolidated basis as of 9 December 2025. ^[27]
Using multiple models (EV/EBITDA, EV/Sales, Price/Sales), its estimated intrinsic value is placed around ₹1,000 per share, implying the stock is trading at roughly a 175–180% premium to that fair value range. ^[28]

On the Street‑target side, AlphaSpread’s aggregation of “Wall Street” (sell‑side & buy‑side) estimates indicates: ^[29]

Current price (snapshotted): ~₹2,860.
Average 12‑month target: ₹1,816.
Target range: ₹1,798–₹1,869, implying ~35–37% downside from current levels in their base case.

In other words, analysts broadly agree the business is high quality, but many models think the share price has run significantly ahead of fundamentals after the 2025 melt‑up.

Analyst & quant commentary: quality with a valuation hangover

The more qualitative research echoes that tension between fundamental strength and elevated valuation:

A November 2025 note from Simply Wall St highlights:
- ROE of 22% and five‑year net income growth of ~27%, comfortably ahead of the industry’s ~18%.
- A moderately low payout ratio (~38%) and long dividend track record.
- Conclusion: the company is making efficient use of retained earnings and fundamentals remain attractive, even though the share price had corrected ~20% over three months into late November. ^[30]
AlphaSpread’s forecast module notes that:
- Historical revenue CAGR over 13 years is ~10%, but consensus expects slightly negative revenue CAGR (~‑1%) over the next two years, possibly reflecting cautious assumptions about volume growth and taxation.
- Operating income, however, is expected to grow at ~15% CAGR, implying further margin expansion.
- Net income growth forecasts (~123% over two years) are high but come with a history of large forecast error, so they should be treated with caution. ^[31]

The net takeaway:

Quality metrics look stellar,
Growth is solid (if somewhat moderating from the explosive 2025 base),
Valuation is where most risk lies today.

Regulatory headwinds: new cess and the 40% “sin goods” regime

Tobacco stocks in India always trade with policy risk baked in, and Godfrey Phillips is no exception.

Two developments in 2025 stand out:

Health & Security Cess proposal (December 2025)
- In early December, ETMarkets reported that the government plans a new “Health and Security Cess” on tobacco products to keep effective tax incidence high, even as the existing GST compensation cess is set to expire.
- Following the announcement, Godfrey Phillips fell about 2.2% intraday to ~₹2,810, while peers like ITC also weakened. ^[32]
- The proposed legislation would amend the Central Excise Act and ensure that cigarettes, pan masala and similar products continue to face a heavy tax burden. ^[33]
GST slab restructuring and 40% sin‑goods rate
- As part of a broader GST revamp, the government has moved to a two‑tier structure (5% and 18%) and introduced a special 40% rate for select “sin” and luxury goods, including tobacco products, aerated drinks, high‑end vehicles and private aircraft. ^[34]

Additionally, BSE filings point to relatively small GST demand and penalty orders (in tens of lakhs of rupees) raised against the company in November 2025 – not material in size but a reminder that indirect‑tax scrutiny is a live issue for the sector. ^[35]

For investors, this means earnings visibility must always be adjusted for potential excise/GST shocks, even when the underlying franchise is executing well.

Credit rating & industry outlook: steady as she goes

Business Standard’s coverage of a September 2025 CRISIL Ratings review notes that: ^[36]

Revenue growth is expected to remain healthy over the medium term, supported by robust domestic cigarette demand and rising unmanufactured tobacco exports.
Operating margins are expected to stay above 21%, aided by the discontinuation of loss‑making 24Seven convenience stores and a higher share of profitable segments.
The company benefits from:
- A portfolio of established cigarette brands,
- The Marlboro license, and
- A strong distribution network that also supports confectionery and Ferrero products.

The same article cites the broader domestic cigarette industry outlook as “reasonably optimistic”, despite higher input costs and tobacco prices, with rural demand recovery and stable tobacco prices expected to drive moderate volume growth in the near term. ^[37]

Key risks to watch

Even with all the good news, Godfrey Phillips is not a “set‑and‑forget” story. Key risk factors include:

Valuation risk
- Multiple fair‑value models flag the stock as 100%+ above intrinsic value estimates.
- Street price targets imply mid‑30s percentage downside over 12 months from current levels. ^[38]
Regulatory & tax risk
- New cess mechanisms and a 40% special tax rate on tobacco could dampen volume growth or squeeze margins if pricing power ever falters. ^[39]
ESG and long‑term demand trends
- Global and domestic policy continues to tilt against tobacco; long‑term consumption patterns could be structurally negative even if near‑term growth is steady.
Concentration risk
- Despite diversification into exports and confectionery, cigarettes remain the core profit engine, leaving the company reliant on a category that regulators love to tax and public‑health advocates love to fight. ^[40]

As always, none of this is personalised investment advice; any decision to buy, hold or sell should factor in your own risk tolerance, time horizon and consultation with a qualified adviser.

Quick FAQs on Godfrey Phillips India (10 December 2025)

Q1. Is Godfrey Phillips India a good stock to buy now?
Public data shows strong fundamentals – high ROE, robust profit growth, negligible debt and consistent dividends. ^[41]
However, valuation models (Smart‑Investing, AlphaSpread and others) currently see the stock as significantly overvalued, with 12‑month targets implying potential downside from present levels. ^[42]
Whether it is a good buy for you depends on your willingness to:

Tolerate valuation compression risk,
Navigate ongoing tobacco tax and ESG headwinds, and
Hold for the long term if earnings continue to compound.

Q2. What is the consensus outlook for earnings and revenue?
Analyst aggregates suggest: ^[43]

Past revenue CAGR ~10% over 13 years; projected slightly negative revenue CAGR (~‑1%) over the next two years.
Operating income expected to grow ~15% CAGR in the same period, indicating further margin expansion.
Net income forecasts are high but volatile, with a history of large misses, so they should be treated as indicative rather than precise.

Q3. How have mutual funds and institutions positioned themselves?
As of September 2025, promoters hold ~72.6%, DIIs have steadily increased stakes to over 4%, and FIIs still own nearly 8% despite some trimming. ^[44]
Mutual fund ownership jumped from 71 to 98 schemes in a single month (August to September 2025), reflecting growing domestic institutional confidence after the Q1 and bonus announcements. ^[45]