U.S. stock futures are ticking higher in early Wednesday trading as Wall Street braces for the Federal Reserve’s final interest-rate decision of 2025 and a packed day of economic data and earnings.
As of around 3:20 a.m. Eastern time, futures tied to the major U.S. indexes were modestly in the green:
- Nasdaq 100 futures +0.16%
- S&P 500 futures +0.15%
- Dow Jones Industrial Average futures +0.07% [1]
The moves signal a cautiously positive open after a mixed session on Tuesday, when the Dow slipped while the tech-heavy Nasdaq eked out a gain. [2]
U.S. Stock Futures at a Glance (Morning of December 10, 2025)
Index futures, pre-market (approximate changes vs. fair value):
- S&P 500 futures: up about 0.1%–0.2%, following Tuesday’s 0.09% decline in the cash index to 6,840.51. [3]
- Dow futures: up around 0.1%, after the Dow fell 0.38% on Tuesday to 47,560.29, weighed down by a sharp slide in JPMorgan shares. [4]
- Nasdaq 100 futures: up roughly 0.15%–0.2%, extending Tuesday’s modest tech strength. [5]
Bond and commodity markets are also setting the tone:
- The 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield is holding near 4.18%, up notably since the start of December. [6]
- WTI crude oil futures hover around $58–$58.50 per barrel. [7]
- Gold trades near $4,200 an ounce, while silver has surged to a record above $61 per ounce amid strong demand from AI, solar and EV-related industries. [8]
In other words, risk assets are steady but subdued, with traders clearly waiting for the Fed before making big bets.
Fed’s Final 2025 Rate Decision: The Main Event for Wall Street
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is wrapping up its two‑day meeting today (Dec. 9–10), with its rate decision and updated forecasts due this afternoon. [9]
What markets expect
- The Fed’s policy rate currently sits in a 3.75%–4.00% range.
- Futures markets are pricing roughly an 85%–90% chance of a 25‑basis‑point cut to 3.50%–3.75%, which would be the third consecutive quarter‑point cut. [10]
Analysts describe this as a “safety cut” aimed at cushioning a cooling labor market without abandoning the inflation fight. [11]
Why this meeting is unusually tricky
Several factors make today’s decision more complicated than a typical December Fed meeting:
- A six‑week U.S. government shutdown earlier this year delayed or canceled key data releases on jobs, inflation and wages, leaving the Fed with less “official” information than usual. [12]
- The Q3 Employment Cost Index (ECI)—a crucial measure of wage and benefit growth—was postponed from Oct. 31 to Dec. 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET, just hours before the Fed announcement. [13]
- October CPI and other inflation reports were not published, and November CPI has been pushed to Dec. 18, meaning the Fed is flying partially blind on the latest price data. [14]
Fed officials themselves are openly divided over how aggressively to cut rates given this data gap: some worry more about rising unemployment, while others focus on inflation that remains above the 2% target. [15]
The dot plot and Powell’s tone
Markets will drill into two key elements of today’s announcement:
- The “dot plot”: Fed officials’ individual projections for where interest rates will be in 2026 and beyond.
- Strategists note that markets currently price around two cuts over the next year, while the Fed’s prior projections pointed to just one. Any change—or lack of change—in those dots could force a repricing of stocks and bonds. [16]
- Powell’s press conference:
- Commentators expect the Fed chair to stress “optionality,” keeping future choices open given the missing data. [17]
- A more dovish tone (hinting at further cuts) could ignite a late‑year rally in risk assets, while a hawkish tone (signaling “one and done”) could pressure equities and push yields higher.
Today’s U.S. Data: Employment Cost Index in Focus
Before Wall Street’s opening bell, investors will get one of the very few fresh, official data points the Fed has for the autumn:
- 08:30 a.m. ET – Q3 2025 Employment Cost Index (ECI)
Why it matters:
- The ECI is one of the Fed’s preferred gauges of underlying wage inflation, because it captures both pay and benefits and is less volatile than monthly wage data.
- For markets, a softer‑than‑expected ECI would support the case for continued easing next year, while a hot print could embolden hawks and weigh on rate‑sensitive growth stocks like tech and small caps. [20]
Recap: How Wall Street Closed on Tuesday, December 9, 2025
Tuesday’s session set the backdrop for today’s cautious tone in futures.
Major index performance
- S&P 500: −0.09% to 6,840.51
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: −0.38% to 47,560.29
- Nasdaq Composite: +0.13% to 23,576.49
- Russell 2000 (small caps): +0.20% to 2,526.24 [21]
Analysts described the session as “mixed and cautious”:
- The Dow was dragged lower by a steep 4%+ drop in JPMorgan, after management flagged higher‑than‑expected expenses for next year. [22]
- The Nasdaq outperformed, lifted by gains in Broadcom, Tesla and Alphabet. [23]
- The S&P 500 drifted slightly lower but remains not far from recent highs, with energy and consumer staples eking out gains while health care and industrials lagged. [24]
Bond yields and labor data
Tuesday’s rate jitters were driven partly by the October JOLTS report, which showed job openings rising to a five‑month high, contrary to expectations for a decline. [25]
- The 10‑year Treasury yield climbed to about 4.18%, reinforcing concerns that the Fed may not cut as aggressively in 2026 as some investors hope. [26]
Pre‑Market Movers and Earnings to Watch Today
Wednesday also brings a cluster of high‑profile earnings that could move individual names and set the tone for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
Before the open: consumer & cyclical names
According to earnings calendars from Nasdaq and TipRanks, companies reporting before the opening bell include: [27]
- Chewy (CHWY) – Online pet retailer; analysts expect a sharp year‑on‑year rebound in EPS, with consensus around $0.12 per share for the quarter. [28]
- Uranium Energy Corp (UEC) – Uranium producer, with a modest loss expected but improvement versus last year. [29]
- REV Group (REVG), Photronics (PLAB), Daktronics (DAKT), VersaBank (VBNK) and J.Jill (JILL) – Smaller names that could move sharply on surprises.
These earnings give a read on consumer spending, industrial demand and niche tech hardware, adding micro‑level color to the macro narrative.
After the close: big‑ticket tech and software
Later today, the spotlight shifts to marquee growth names: [30]
- Adobe (ADBE) – A bellwether for software and digital media demand.
- Oracle (ORCL) – Closely watched for its cloud infrastructure and AI workload trends.
- Synopsys (SNPS) – A key player in chip‑design software, tied indirectly to the AI and semiconductor boom.
- Planet Labs (PL) – Satellite imaging and data analytics, another growth‑oriented tech name.
Options pricing suggests notably elevated implied volatility around some of these reports, particularly Oracle and Broadcom (which reports tomorrow), underlining how central AI‑related capex and cloud spending have become to the broader market narrative. [31]
Global Market Backdrop: Flat Equities, Wild Metals
Outside the U.S., markets are also in “wait‑and‑see” mode.
Europe and Asia
- European stocks are fractionally lower, with the Stoxx 600 down about 0.1%. [32]
- Asia‑Pacific markets were mixed overnight:
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng inched higher,
- China’s Shanghai Composite slipped,
- Japan’s Nikkei saw small moves in both directions across major indexes. [33]
Traders abroad are just as fixated on the Fed as U.S. investors, knowing today’s decision will influence global rates, currencies and risk appetite.
Currencies, yields and metals
Key global cross‑currents include: [34]
- The U.S. dollar is slightly firmer, supported by higher Treasury yields.
- The Japanese yen has weakened sharply, with the euro and pound hitting multi‑year highs against it.
- Silver has become the breakout story of the week, bursting above $60 to a new all‑time high above $61 per ounce. Industrial demand from solar, EVs and AI data centers is helping supercharge prices.
- Gold is steady around $4,200 an ounce, off its October peak but still near historic highs, reflecting lingering demand for havens.
- Crude oil remains subdued near $58–$62 a barrel as renewed supply from Iraq and a softer growth outlook cap gains.
Fed Scenarios: What Could Move the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Today?
Strategists broadly see three main paths for markets once the Fed announcement hits:
1. “Dovish cut” – Most bullish for stocks
What happens
- Fed cuts 25 bps and signals openness to more easing in 2026.
- The dot plot shifts lower or Powell emphasizes growing downside risks to the labor market.
Potential market reaction
- Yields fall, especially at the front end of the curve.
- Growth and tech stocks (Nasdaq) outperform, helped by lower discount rates and ongoing AI enthusiasm. [35]
- Small caps and cyclical sectors could also jump if investors lean into a “soft landing” narrative. [36]
2. “Hawkish cut” – Volatile, with downside risk
What happens
- Fed cuts 25 bps, but the dot plot and Powell’s comments signal only one further cut (or none) in the foreseeable future. [37]
Potential market reaction
- Initial confusion, then yields push higher as traders reprice the path of policy.
- Equity markets could sell off, especially high‑valuation tech names and rate‑sensitive areas like real estate.
- Strategists warn that a hawkish surprise could jeopardize hopes for a “Santa rally” in late December. [38]
3. “No cut” – Low probability, high impact
This is not the base case, but analysts still flag it as a risk:
- If the Fed leaves rates unchanged, citing sticky inflation or discomfort with cutting without better data, futures could quickly reverse. [39]
- That scenario would likely bring sharp equity weakness, a stronger dollar and higher yields, at least initially.
Key Times to Watch Today (All Eastern Time)
- 08:30 a.m. – Employment Cost Index (Q3)
- 09:30 a.m. – U.S. stock market opens
- 02:00 p.m. – FOMC statement and interest-rate decision
- 02:30 p.m. – Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference
- After the close – Earnings from Adobe, Oracle, Synopsys, Planet Labs and others
With futures slightly higher but constrained, markets are clearly signaling a simple message: everything hinges on what the Fed says—and how it says it. For traders and long‑term investors alike, today’s combination of a crucial wage report, a pivotal policy decision and heavyweight tech earnings could set the tone for the rest of December and the start of 2026.
References
1. www.tipranks.com, 2. www.tipranks.com, 3. www.tipranks.com, 4. www.tipranks.com, 5. www.tipranks.com, 6. www.tipranks.com, 7. www.tipranks.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.investopedia.com, 10. www.investopedia.com, 11. www.investopedia.com, 12. www.bls.gov, 13. www.bls.gov, 14. www.bls.gov, 15. www.investopedia.com, 16. www.investopedia.com, 17. www.investopedia.com, 18. www.bls.gov, 19. www.barchart.com, 20. www.barchart.com, 21. apnews.com, 22. www.tipranks.com, 23. www.tipranks.com, 24. www.chinadailyhk.com, 25. www.barchart.com, 26. www.barchart.com, 27. www.nasdaq.com, 28. www.nasdaq.com, 29. www.nasdaq.com, 30. www.tipranks.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.tipranks.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.financialcontent.com, 36. www.barchart.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.investopedia.com
