Bitcoin Price Today, December 10, 2025: BTC Holds Above $92,000 as Fed Decision Dominates Early U.S. Trade

Bitcoin is starting Wednesday’s U.S. session on firmer footing, trading just above $92,500 as traders position for the Federal Reserve’s final interest-rate decision of 2025 later today.

Key takeaways

BTC price today: Bitcoin is trading around $92,500–$92,700, up roughly 2–2.5% over the last 24 hours, but still down about 13% over the past month and well below its October all‑time high near $126,000. ^[1]
Rangebound but volatile: Over the past 24 hours, BTC has swung between roughly $90,000 and $94,500, with most trading clustered in the low‑$90,000s. ^[2]
Macro in focus: Markets are pricing in a 25 bps Fed rate cut this afternoon, with prediction markets putting the odds of a cut around 97%—but the tone of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference may matter more than the cut itself. ^[3]
Crypto market backdrop: Total crypto market capitalization has climbed to about $3.2 trillion, with Bitcoin up around 2.3% and Ether up roughly 6% over the past day as sentiment nudges out of “extreme fear.” ^[4]
Big-bank rethink: Standard Chartered has slashed its 2025 Bitcoin price target to $100,000 (from $200,000) and pushed its long‑term $500,000 call out to 2030, citing slower ETF inflows and fading corporate accumulation. ^[5]

Bitcoin price today: BTC steady above $92K in early U.S. trading

Live pricing data from major aggregators shows Bitcoin changing hands near $92,500 this morning, with slight variance by venue (CoinGecko at about $92,541, CoinMarketCap’s BTC/USDT converter around $92,489). Over the last 24 hours, that equates to a gain of roughly 2.3–2.4%. ^[6]

Closing data from yesterday (Dec. 9, UTC) suggests a relatively tight but nervous trading band over the past week: daily closes mostly between $89,000 and $93,500, with Bitcoin now only marginally higher than it was a week ago but still roughly 13% below its level 30 days ago. ^[7]

An early‑morning note from Investing.com put Bitcoin at about $92,673 around 01:55 a.m. ET, after briefly popping above $94,000 on Tuesday, framing today’s move as a modest rebound after one of the sharpest monthly pullbacks in years. ^[8]

Altcoins are outperforming BTC into the Fed meeting:

Ethereum (ETH) is up roughly 6–7% around $3,300–3,320.
Cardano (ADA) has surged close to 9%,
Solana (SOL) is up around 4–5%,
Meme and high‑beta names like Dogecoin and politically themed tokens have added around 4% on the day. ^[9]

The broader crypto market cap has risen around 3% to roughly $3.2 trillion, while the Crypto Fear & Greed Indexhas climbed from 22 to 26, inching out of “extreme fear” but still well below the euphoric readings seen near October’s peak. ^[10]

Macro backdrop: Fed’s final 2025 rate cut looms

Today’s price action is happening under one huge macro shadow: the December FOMC decision.

The Fed announces its decision at 2:00 p.m. ET, with markets strongly expecting a 25 bps cut, the third cut of 2025. ^[11]
Prediction market Polymarket currently assigns about a 96–97% probability to a quarter‑point cut, with almost no expectation for an unchanged outcome. ^[12]

Coverage from Investing.com and Cointelegraph characterizes the likely move as a “hawkish cut”: a reduction in rates paired with messaging that further easing is not guaranteed, given still‑elevated inflation and internal FOMC splits. ^[13]

In that context:

A dovish surprise (clear guidance of more cuts in 2026) could soften the dollar, ease financial conditions and support risk assets such as Bitcoin.
A hawkish surprise (one‑and‑done language, or concern about wage growth) could trigger further risk‑off moves, particularly given how levered parts of the crypto market currently are. ^[14]

A Reuters year‑in‑review piece underlines why crypto traders care so much about the Fed: Bitcoin’s correlation with major U.S. equity indices has climbed this year, while the asset’s 2025 trajectory has already been jolted by shifting expectations around AI‑driven tech stocks, U.S. trade policy and rate cuts. BTC hit an all‑time high above $126,000 in early October before a policy‑driven sell‑off erased a large chunk of those gains. ^[15]

Leverage, liquidations and the derivatives setup

Beneath the spot chart, derivatives positioning is playing a major role in today’s move.

A DailyForex update notes that BTC/USD rallied from its November 21 low near $80,500 to almost $94,900 this week, helped by a rise in futures open interest to around $134 billion and heavy liquidations of bearish positions. However, the pair is still trading below the 50‑ and 100‑day EMAs on the daily chart, and the site’s analyst flags a possible bearish flag pattern that could resolve lower if the Fed disappoints. ^[16]

A separate market wrap from FXLeaders paints a similar picture:

Crypto liquidations have more than doubled to roughly $429 million,
Open interest has climbed about 3% to $133 billion,
The aggregate crypto market RSI is hovering near 51, suggesting a “neutral but jumpy” regime where relatively small news shocks can trigger outsized moves via cascades of forced buying or selling. ^[17]

On the on‑chain side, BeInCrypto points out that entities holding 1,000+ BTC—often seen as institutional or “whale” cohorts—have been reducing their balances since mid‑November, with large‑holder counts sitting near monthly lows. That helps explain why Bitcoin keeps stalling at key resistance despite positive catalysts. ^[18]

At the same time, short positioning is heavy enough that a short squeeze remains very much on the table:

On Binance and other major futures venues, short liquidation leverage over the last 30 days is estimated to be almost 50% higher than on the long side,
Recent 1–2% upticks have repeatedly snowballed into stronger rallies when short positions were forced to cover, including a move above $94,400 on Dec. 9 that added roughly $156 billion in crypto market cap in just a few hours. ^[19]

Institutional flows and adoption: ETFs, Standard Chartered and PNC Bank

Standard Chartered halves its 2025 Bitcoin target

The biggest institutional research headline of the day comes from Standard Chartered, which has cut its year‑end 2025 Bitcoin target to $100,000—down from a previous $200,000 call. The bank still believes BTC can reach $500,000, but now sees that level only by 2030, rather than 2028. ^[20]

According to the Economic Times’ summary of the report, the downgrade reflects:

A marked slowdown in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows,
The end of the aggressive corporate treasuries “stacking BTC” phase led by firms such as MicroStrategy,
A view that future upside is now driven primarily by ETF demand rather than balance‑sheet accumulation. ^[21]

The bank estimates quarterly net ETF + treasury inflows down to around 50,000 BTC, compared with roughly 450,000 BTC per quarter at the 2024 peak, even though ETF buyers have repeatedly stepped in to defend prices near the mid‑$90,000 cost basis of major U.S. funds. ^[22]

Interestingly, the same report argues that traditional “four‑year halving cycle” models are losing relevance and suggests that “crypto winters are a thing of the past”, a view partially corroborated by prediction‑market data that assigns only about a 6% chance of a new crypto winter by February 2026. ^[23]

New banking rails: PNC and OCC open the door wider

Beyond research notes, today also brings fresh signs of traditional finance integrating more tightly with Bitcoin:

PNC Private Bank, one of the largest U.S. banks, has launched direct Bitcoin trading for its private‑bank clients through a white‑label partnership with Coinbase’s Crypto‑as‑a‑Service platform. Initially aimed at high‑net‑worth clients, the integration lets PNC customers buy and sell BTC inside the bank’s existing interface, without moving funds to an external exchange. ^[24]
Separately, fresh guidance from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) confirms that national banks can act as intermediaries in crypto transactions under a “riskless principal” model—brokering trades without holding assets on their own balance sheets. ^[25]

Both developments reinforce a theme: while price is down from its October peak, infrastructure and institutional access continue to thicken, giving Bitcoin a deeper foothold in the U.S. financial system.

ETF and institutional positioning

A detailed altcoin‑heavy roundup from 99Bitcoins reports that Fidelity and Grayscale together purchased over $250 million worth of Bitcoin in recent days, helping flip BTC inflows back to positive territory and contributing to a roughly 12% rally off the November lows. The same piece notes that DeFi total value locked has rebounded to around $124 billion, while more than $300 million in short positions were liquidated overnight, easing leverage and giving spot buyers more room to operate. ^[26]

The article also highlights a string of longer‑term adoption signals—among them:

Comments from Binance founder CZ suggesting crypto could enter a “supercycle” by 2026,
A forthcoming U.S. crypto market‑structure bill being pushed by Senator Cynthia Lummis,
Plans in Argentina to allow banks to offer crypto services from 2026,
And a Bank of America note recommending a 4% crypto allocation in diversified portfolios. ^[27]

None of these are short‑term catalysts by themselves, but together they help explain why even cautious institutional desks are reluctant to write off Bitcoin’s longer‑horizon narrative.

Technical picture: Key BTC/USD levels to watch today

Today’s early U.S. session opens with a messy but well‑defined technical map.

1. Inverse head‑and‑shoulders vs. bearish flag

BeInCrypto sees Bitcoin still respecting an inverse head‑and‑shoulders pattern that began forming in mid‑November, with a neckline around $93,700 and a measured target near $108,500—as long as BTC remains above $83,800, with $80,500 as the pattern’s invalidation level. ^[28]
DailyForex, by contrast, emphasizes a bearish flag on the daily chart, with price below the 50‑ and 100‑day EMAs, and warns of a potential breakdown back toward the $80,500 November low if today’s Fed decision triggers a “sell the news” reaction. ^[29]

Those competing interpretations speak to a market that is technically coiled but still lacking conviction.

2. Cointelegraph’s “must hold” and “must break” zones

A detailed level map from Cointelegraph (via TradingView News) lays out the following zones for the near term: ^[30]

Immediate resistance:
- $93,300–$94,000 (yearly open and short‑term ceiling)
- Above this, Bitcoin still needs to reclaim the 50‑day SMA near $98,000 to credibly target six‑figure prices again.
Upside objectives (if resistance breaks):
- Psychological $100,000,
- A heavy supply zone up to about $108,000, where the 200‑day SMA now sits,
- Extension targets toward $110,000+ if momentum accelerates.
Key supports:
- $91,500–$90,000 as an immediate “must‑hold” region; some analysts warn that a decisive break below roughly $91,500 could lead to “blood in the streets,”
- Below that, prior range lows around $87,500,
- And then the $84,000 area, which would effectively erase the last three weeks of gains.

3. Short‑term trade ideas and risk levels

DailyForex’s BTC/USD signal encapsulates how traders are positioning around those zones: ^[31]

Bearish scenario:
- Short BTC/USD with take‑profit near $85,000 and stop‑loss around $96,000, looking for a post‑FOMC flush if the Fed under‑delivers on easing.
Bullish scenario:
- Long BTC/USD with take‑profit near $96,000 and stop‑loss around $87,000, on the thesis that easing plus short‑squeeze dynamics can extend the current rebound.

These are hypothetical trade setups from one analyst, not guarantees, but they give a sense of how active traders are bracketing today’s event risk.

Forecasts for 2025: Bulls vs. bears

Across today’s notes and interviews, the 2025 outlook for Bitcoin is unusually divided.

From the bullish side: ^[32]

Tom Lee (Fundstrat) still sees scope for a relief rally toward $100,000–$110,000 by year‑end, assuming rate cuts continue and ETF inflows accelerate.
CoinDCX Research sketches a more aggressive range of roughly $111,000–$130,000 if ETF demand re‑accelerates and macro conditions stay supportive.
Standard Chartered, even after halving its 2025 target, still expects six‑figure BTC by the end of next year and $500,000 by 2030.

On the cautious or bearish side:

A recent Barron’s column (highlighted on CoinGecko’s BTC page) warns that Bitcoin could slip below $90,000 even after a rate cut, arguing that much of the good news is already priced in. ^[33]
DailyForex and several macro analysts stress that the current rally could be a “dead‑cat bounce” within a larger downtrend, especially if the Fed signals fewer cuts or if risk assets continue to de‑rate from AI‑driven peaks. ^[34]

This leaves Bitcoin in a familiar position: long‑term narratives remain optimistic, but short‑ and medium‑term paths depend heavily on macro policy, ETF flows and how leveraged the market is when the next shock arrives.

What to watch for during the rest of today’s U.S. session

For traders and investors tracking Bitcoin through the rest of Wednesday:

The FOMC decision and Powell’s press conference
- Rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET, press conference shortly after.
- Watch not just the cut itself, but dot plots, guidance on 2026, and Powell’s language about inflation, labor markets and financial conditions. ^[35]
BTC’s behavior around $93,700 and $91,500
- A sustained move above $93,700 into the New York afternoon would strengthen the bullish inverse head‑and‑shoulders case.
- A break below roughly $91,500–$90,000 after the Fed would support the bearish flag thesis and raise odds of a retest of the mid‑$80Ks. ^[36]
ETF flow data and large on‑chain transactions
- Post‑FOMC net creations or redemptions in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs will be closely parsed for evidence of dip‑buying vs. profit‑taking. ^[37]
Altcoin rotation and ETH/BTC
- ETH has broken a three‑month downtrend versus BTC and is up double‑digits in dollar terms this week; if that relative strength persists, we could see a broader “alt season” rotation in the days ahead. ^[38]
Macro headlines beyond the Fed
- Any surprises on U.S. jobs or wage data, or fresh geopolitical headlines, could amplify volatility in a market already heavily positioned for a specific Fed outcome. ^[39]

Risk reminder

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are high‑volatility, high‑risk assets. The price levels, scenarios and analyst forecasts mentioned above are not guarantees and do not constitute investment advice. If you are considering trading or investing, you should carefully assess your financial situation, risk tolerance and time horizon, and consider speaking with a qualified financial adviser before making any decisions.