The German stock market is treading carefully this Wednesday, 10 December 2025, as traders in Frankfurt shift into “Fed waiting mode” ahead of tonight’s key interest-rate decision in the United States.
By late morning, the DAX was down roughly 0.5% at around 24,050 points, having opened only slightly lower near 24,100. That pares back part of Tuesday’s climb to a new December high of 24,163 points. [1]
The MDAX of mid-caps slipped about 0.4% to 29,610 points, while the EuroStoxx 50 ticked only slightly lower, underlining a cautious but not panicky mood across Europe. [2]
DAX takes a breather above 24,000
After two years of economic sluggishness and a sharp equity sell-off in November, the DAX has staged an impressive comeback. From a low just under 23,000 points in November, the index has rebounded by roughly 5%, retaking the psychologically important 24,000 level last week. [3]
- Yesterday (9 December)
- DAX: +0.49% to 24,162.65
- MDAX: +0.22% to 29,729.05
- TecDAX: +0.05% to 3,583.79
- SDAX: –0.13% to 16,857.79 [4]
Today’s pullback looks more like a pause than a trend change:
- At the opening bell, the DAX was off 0.3% at 24,092 points, while the MDAX fell 0.4% to 29,610. [5]
- About half an hour before noon, the DAX was down roughly 0.51% at 24,049.97 points, according to intraday data. [6]
Across Europe, the pan‑European STOXX 600 was down around 0.2%, with Germany’s benchmark among the weaker large markets as investors trimmed risk ahead of the Fed. [7]
Fed day: why Frankfurt is nervous
The dominant theme today is monetary policy – not in Frankfurt, but in Washington.
A “hawkish cut” risk
Markets widely expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut its key rate by 25 basis points tonight. However, the debate is about the tone of the accompanying statement and the updated rate projections:
- Recent U.S. data – notably the JOLTS job openings report – showed vacancies rising again in October, suggesting the labour market is cooling only gradually. [8]
- That pushed U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar slightly higher on Tuesday, as traders priced in the risk of a “hawkish cut” – a rate reduction accompanied by warnings that the fight against inflation isn’t over. [9]
European markets are responding in kind:
- German and broader euro‑area indices are drifting lower today, with Germany and Spain both in the red. [10]
- Euro-area government bond yields are edging down again after hawkish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials earlier in the week, but forward markets still price the next ECB move as a rate hike around mid‑2027 – not cuts. [11]
For German equities, higher-for-longer global rates mean:
- A stronger euro and higher discount rates for future earnings.
- More pressure on rate‑sensitive sectors such as real estate and high‑growth tech.
- Elevated uncertainty for export-heavy industrials already hit by trade frictions.
Top movers: Siemens Energy shines, Rheinmetall and TUI slump
Today’s price action in Frankfurt is less about broad panic and more about stock‑specific stories.
DAX winners
At the top of the DAX in early trade:
- Siemens Energy jumped around 4.5% to just under €124, extending a spectacular year in which the stock has gained almost 150%, making it one of the best performers in the index. [12]
- Sartorius (pref. shares) climbed about 2.8% after an upgrade from Exane BNP Paribas, which raised the med‑tech group to “Outperform”. [13]
- Hochtief rose roughly 1.4% after also being lifted to “Outperform” by the same brokerage, helping the construction and infrastructure theme. [14]
In the MDAX, food‑delivery group Delivery Hero rallied about 5.2% after the company confirmed it is exploring “strategic options”, including potential asset sales following a period of share-price weakness. [15]
Wind‑turbine manufacturer Nordex, a member of both MDAX and TecDAX, was also in focus after announcing a landmark contract with U.S. utility Alliant Energy:
- Up to 190 turbines (N133 and N163 Delta4000 variants) for large projects in the U.S. Midwest.
- Total planned capacity: up to 1,060 MW, with installation scheduled for 2028–2029.
- Turbines will be manufactured in Iowa, following Nordex’s restart of production there. [16]
While today’s intraday move in Nordex shares isn’t yet decisive, the deal underpins the long‑term growth story in renewable energy and highlights the global reach of Germany’s wind‑power supply chain.
DAX and MDAX laggards
On the downside, defence and financial names are dragging:
- Rheinmetall dropped about 3.3% by late morning, after being one of yesterday’s standout gainers on optimism over major defence orders expected between late 2025 and mid‑2026. [17]
- Siemens Healthineers slid about 2.1%, while Deutsche Börse lost around 1.6%. [18]
- Heavyweights such as SAP, Siemens, Zalando, Munich Re, RWE, Symrise and Deutsche Bank were also modestly lower, typically between 0.6% and 1.1%. [19]
TUI, which presented annual figures and announced its first dividend (10 cents per share) since the COVID‑19 crisis, fell around 3% as investors digested cautious guidance and the balance between shareholder payouts and reinvestment. [20]
Utility RWE is in the news for a different reason: it reported the ongoing implementation of a share buyback programme for certain UK subsidiaries, with 1,393 RWE shares acquired on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange this month at an average price of about GBP 39.06 each. [21] The volumes are small, but the move underscores management’s emphasis on capital return alongside its large renewables capex pipeline.
Macro backdrop: exports, tariffs and a slow recovery
The mood in German equities can’t be divorced from the macro data flow and the structural challenges facing Europe’s largest economy.
Exports: EU holds up, US and China falter
Fresh trade data for October showed that German exports unexpectedly rose 0.1% month‑on‑month, confounding economists who had expected a 0.5% drop. [22]
Beneath the headline:
- Exports to EU partners climbed 2.7%, showing the bloc remains a stabilising force. [23]
- Shipments to countries outside the EU fell 3.3%, with notable declines to:
- United States: –7.8% vs. September and –8.3% year‑on‑year.
- China: –5.8% month‑on‑month. [24]
Economists point to a “triple China shock” for German exporters – weaker Chinese demand, tougher competition from Chinese manufacturers, and reliance on Chinese inputs – while U.S. tariffs of 15% on most EU imports, introduced under a bilateral deal in July, are adding pressure. [25]
Imports fell 1.2%, pushing the trade surplus up to €16.9 billion in October from €15.3 billion in September. [26]
Growth forecasts: modest and uneven
Major institutions broadly agree that Germany is returning to growth, but only slowly:
- The OECD now projects German GDP growth of 0.3% in 2025, rising to 1.0% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027, helped by low inflation, rising nominal wages and reduced domestic policy uncertainty. [27]
- The European Commission expects the economy to largely stagnate in 2025, before rebounding with around 1.2% growth in both 2026 and 2027, supported by public spending and real wage gains but constrained by trade tensions. [28]
- A new forecast from the German Economic Institute (IW) sees GDP up only 0.1% this year after two years of contraction, then 0.9% in 2026 – with roughly one‑third of that growth coming purely from additional working days, thanks to calendar effects in 2026. [29]
IW also highlights:
- A record tax and social‑contributions burden of 41.5% of GDP in 2025.
- World trade growth expected to slow from 4.5% in 2025 to just 1.5% in 2026, largely due to U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical tensions. [30]
Put simply, Germany is crawling out of stagnation, but exports and investment remain vulnerable – a key reason why the DAX, heavy with industrials and exporters, reacts so sensitively to every new headline on trade and rates.
Technical picture: UBS sees new hurdles, support around 24,000
From a chart perspective, today’s dip looks like part of an ongoing consolidation phase rather than a fresh breakdown.
A morning UBS technical note (via 4investors) highlights that:
- On Tuesday, the DAX climbed from an open around 24,095 to an intraday high near 24,187, closing at 24,163 – a new high for December that also broke above the interim peak from 5 November (24,104). [31]
- On the upside, the next resistance “cluster” lies around:
- The November high at 24,441,
- Followed by June’s 24,479, August’s 24,536,
- And the July high at 24,639 up to the record high around 24,771 points. [32]
On the downside, UBS flags several support zones:
- First support: the 24,104 level (the early‑November high, now acting as potential floor).
- A broader support band just above 24,000, reinforced by:
- The 50‑day moving average around 23,985,
- The 100‑day moving average near 23,954.
- Further down, the 200‑day moving average around 23,542 and the October low at 23,684 mark key longer‑term support. [33]
These levels matter because, only a few weeks ago, analysts at Capital.com were warning that the DAX had broken long‑term support around 23,300, shedding more than 6.5% from its October highs on worries over global growth, stretched valuations and policy risks. [34]
Since then, the index has snapped back above both 23,300 and 24,000, suggesting that the November sell‑off was more of a sharp correction within a broader sideways‑to‑upward range than the start of a lasting bear market.
December “Santa rally”: statistics versus 2025 reality
Seasonality is another reason some investors remain cautiously optimistic despite today’s red screens.
According to a detailed analysis from Euronews based on historical data:
- Over the past 40 years, the DAX has delivered an average December return of 2.18%, making it one of the strongest months of the year, just behind April.
- The index ends December higher about 73% of the time. [35]
- The real strength usually appears in the second half of the month: from 15 December to year‑end, the DAX has historically gained around 1.9% on average, with a similar 73% “win rate”. [36]
The article also notes that:
- Much of this seasonal strength is driven by institutional investors engaging in “window dressing” – boosting year‑end performance by buying winners and tidying portfolios.
- The pattern tends to be particularly important in years when indices like the DAX have traded in a sideways range, as in 2025, raising the odds of a late‑year breakout. [37]
However, the usual caveat applies: past performance is no guarantee of future returns. This year, the Santa‑rally script must contend with:
- A crucial Fed decision tonight and potential hawkish surprises. [38]
- Slowing global trade and heightened tariff tensions. [39]
- Ongoing concerns about Germany’s structural growth challenges and tax burden. [40]
What to watch for the rest of today and beyond
For traders and longer‑term investors following the German stock market on 10 December 2025, the key signposts are clear:
1. Fed decision and Powell’s tone
- A 25 bps rate cut is almost fully priced.
- Markets will focus on:
- The 2026–2027 “dots” (Fed’s rate projections).
- Any hints about the pace of further cuts or even the possibility of future hikes if inflation reignites. [41]
Implication for German stocks:
- A hawkish cut (firm rhetoric, higher dots) could push yields and the dollar higher, weighing on cyclical exporters, financials and growth stocks in the DAX and MDAX.
- A more dovish stance, emphasising growth risks and global trade weakness, would likely support equities and risk assets, particularly rate‑sensitive sectors.
2. German and euro‑area data flow
Over the rest of December, markets will parse:
- Survey data such as PMIs, Ifo and ZEW, to test whether Germany’s manufacturing and services sectors are stabilising.
- Sector‑specific outlooks – for example, today’s VCI (chemical industry) forecast, which Nord LB expects to be cautious. [42]
- Follow‑up numbers on industrial orders and exports, which recently surprised on the upside but still show vulnerabilities to U.S. tariffs and China’s slowdown. [43]
3. Stock‑specific catalysts
Several names are likely to stay in the spotlight:
- Defence stocks such as Rheinmetall, after strong performance and ongoing geopolitical tensions. [44]
- Industrial and steel plays like Thyssenkrupp, which recently warned of renewed heavy burdens and posted an MDAX‑leading drop of 8.6% yesterday. [45]
- Travel & leisure via TUI, as investors weigh the return of dividends against the still‑fragile tourism cycle. [46]
- Renewables and energy via Nordex and RWE, where long‑dated contracts and buybacks may provide some insulation from short‑term macro noise. [47]
Takeaway for investors
Today’s German stock market story is one of cautious consolidation rather than crisis.
- The DAX remains comfortably above 24,000, only modestly below yesterday’s December high. [48]
- Short‑term sentiment is dominated by the Fed, while the medium‑term narrative is shaped by trade tensions, slow but positive growth, and structural reforms at home. [49]
- Technical indicators suggest a broad trading range with robust support below and a cluster of resistance levels above – a set‑up that could turn into a classic December Santa rally if tonight’s Fed decision calms nerves. [50]
For now, though, investors in Frankfurt are content to wait for Powell – and the next chapter for the DAX will likely be written overnight in Washington.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research or consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.finanznachrichten.de, 3. www.finanznachrichten.de, 4. www.ntg24.de, 5. www.finanznachrichten.de, 6. www.rttnews.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.caixabankresearch.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.caixabankresearch.com, 12. www.finanznachrichten.de, 13. www.finanznachrichten.de, 14. www.finanznachrichten.de, 15. www.finanznachrichten.de, 16. markets.ft.com, 17. www.rttnews.com, 18. www.rttnews.com, 19. www.rttnews.com, 20. www.finanznachrichten.de, 21. www.tradingview.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.oecd.org, 28. economy-finance.ec.europa.eu, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.4investors.de, 32. www.4investors.de, 33. www.4investors.de, 34. capital.com, 35. www.euronews.com, 36. www.euronews.com, 37. www.euronews.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.investing.com, 40. www.oecd.org, 41. www.reuters.com, 42. www.4investors.de, 43. www.reuters.com, 44. www.4investors.de, 45. www.4investors.de, 46. www.finanznachrichten.de, 47. markets.ft.com, 48. www.4investors.de, 49. www.reuters.com, 50. www.4investors.de
