Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK) heads into mid‑December with its stock back near the psychologically important $100 level—and with the kind of headline mix that makes long-term pharma investing feel like chess played on a trampoline: upbeat analyst upgrades and pipeline optimism on one side, and fresh regulatory scrutiny plus the ever-present “Keytruda patent cliff” narrative on the other.
As of the latest close, Merck shares finished at about $99.01 after a positive session, though they lagged some large-cap pharma peers on the day. [1]
Below is a detailed, publication-ready roundup of the most current MRK stock news, forecasts, and market analysis as of December 12, 2025, along with the key catalysts investors are likely to track into early 2026.
Merck stock today: price action and what the tape is saying
Merck closed Thursday, December 11 at $99.01, up 1.42%, marking a second straight daily gain, but it still underperformed some major pharma rivals in the same session. [2]
A few trading takeaways matter for how investors interpret this move:
- Still below recent highs: Merck remains roughly 6%+ below its 52‑week high around $105.84 (hit on November 25, 2025). [3]
- Volume softer than average: Trading volume came in below the stock’s recent average, a sign the move wasn’t powered by a “must-own-it-now” stampede. [4]
- Recent volatility is real: Earlier in the week, Merck was a notable drag on the Dow during a down session as its shares fell sharply intraday. [5]
That’s the setup: MRK is stabilizing, but the market is still debating whether the recent rebound is the start of a durable rerating—or just a relief rally with good PR.
Why Wall Street got louder on MRK in December: price targets jumped
One of the clearest “support beams” under Merck stock recently has been a cluster of analyst upgrades and higher price targets from late November through early December.
Highlights include:
- Wells Fargo upgraded Merck to Overweight (from Equal Weight) and raised its price target to $125 (from $90). [6]
- Goldman Sachs raised its Merck price target to $120 and reiterated a Buy stance. [7]
- Scotiabank maintained a Sector Outperform view and posted a $120 price target (reported December 4). [8]
- Guggenheim lifted its target to $122 from $104, explicitly pointing to Winrevair as a key driver of upside in its thesis. [9]
These target hikes matter because they suggest a narrative shift: the market isn’t only valuing Merck as “Keytruda + worry.” More analysts are underwriting a post‑Keytruda bridge—built from new indications, pipeline depth, and acquisition-driven diversification.
The headline risk investors can’t ignore: FDA safety review of RSV antibodies (including Merck’s Enflonsia)
On the risk side, a major current storyline is the FDA’s fresh safety scrutiny of RSV preventive therapies for infants—an umbrella that includes Merck’s Enflonsia.
Reuters reported the FDA is initiating a new safety review involving Merck (Enflonsia) and peers’ products, in a policy climate that has become politically and publicly charged. [10]
The Associated Press similarly described the FDA review as a safety review of injectable RSV drugs used to protect babies and toddlers, noting companies have said no new safety signals were reported, but that labeling updates could occur if needed. [11]
For MRK stock, this isn’t just “health policy noise.” Investors tend to price in two practical questions:
- Does scrutiny change uptake? Even a “routine” review can create physician hesitation or payer friction.
- Does it change the label or rollout? Label changes don’t always crush revenue—but they can alter growth curves.
The key nuance: the news flow here can swing sentiment quickly, even if the underlying science remains stable. Pharma stocks are allergic to uncertainty, and regulators are the universe’s most efficient uncertainty machines.
The Keytruda cliff gets more real: a new biosimilar partnership targets the US and Canada
Merck’s biggest long-run stock debate remains: how the company navigates Keytruda’s loss of exclusivity, widely framed around 2028. [12]
That debate sharpened this week with a concrete competitive signal:
- Formycon and Zydus announced an exclusive licensing and supply partnership for FYB206, a biosimilar to Keytruda (pembrolizumab), for the U.S. and Canada. [13]
- Formycon stated the clinical development phase is nearly completed, with primary endpoint data expected in Q1 2026. [14]
This doesn’t mean Keytruda revenue collapses tomorrow. But from a stock-valuation perspective, it makes the timeline feel less abstract: competitors are building the plumbing now.
Translation for MRK investors: the “2028 story” is increasingly becoming a “2026–2027 de-risking story,” because that’s when biosimilar programs and regulatory filings can start to crystallize into credible launch expectations.
Merck’s counterpunch: diversification via deals (Verona) and a big flu bet (Cidara)
Merck’s strategic response to Keytruda concentration risk has been twofold: buy assets and push late-stage pipeline. 2025 has delivered multiple datapoints supporting that approach.
1) Verona Pharma acquisition is done
Merck completed its acquisition of Verona Pharma in early October, paying $107 per ADS for a total transaction value of roughly $10 billion. [15]
This deal has been widely framed as part of Merck’s effort to deepen its respiratory franchise and build growth platforms beyond oncology. [16]
2) Cidara Therapeutics: a $9.2B deal aimed at flu prevention
In November, Reuters reported Merck agreed to acquire Cidara Therapeutics in a deal valued around $9.2 billion, anchored by CD388, an experimental long‑acting antiviral designed to provide season‑long protection against influenza. [17]
Merck has described CD388 as a >$5 billion commercial opportunity, and Reuters noted Merck expects the acquisition to close in Q1 2026. [18]
From a stock lens, this matters because it’s the kind of program investors can model: a potentially large market, an asset in late-stage trials, and a timeline that overlaps the period when MRK needs visible new growth engines.
Another bullish pillar: Winrevair’s expanding story (and why analysts cite it)
Winrevair has become a recurring character in Merck’s “future revenue map.”
Barron’s reported Merck stock jumped in November after positive Phase 2 results for Winrevair in a new setting, reinforcing investor hope that Merck can build meaningful growth beyond Keytruda—though upside depends heavily on expanding indications. [19]
Investors.com also highlighted the same dynamic: encouraging early data, but a longer regulatory path ahead, with analysts urging caution about how quickly such results translate into filings and revenue. [20]
This is likely why Guggenheim specifically referenced Winrevair potential in its December price-target raise. [21]
The “quiet” fundamentals: earnings beat, guidance, and the Gardasil China drag
Merck’s most recent quarterly results are still part of how analysts frame the stock:
- MarketBeat reported Merck’s Q3 2025 EPS was $2.58, topping consensus expectations (with revenue also slightly ahead). [22]
- Merck’s 2025 adjusted EPS guidance was reported around $8.93–$8.98. [23]
But one operational headwind has also been prominent in recent analysis: Gardasil in China.
A Nasdaq/Zacks analysis noted Merck does not expect to resume Gardasil shipments in China through at least the end of 2025, which is expected to weigh on Gardasil sales (and it also flagged softer demand in Japan). [24]
Meanwhile, Reuters’ October 30 earnings coverage noted Merck shares were down about 5% year-to-date at that time, reflecting investor tension between Keytruda reliance and diversification efforts, amid broader industry concerns like potential U.S. drug pricing reforms. [25]
Dividend catalyst: key dates and what it means for MRK stock traders
Merck also has a near-term shareholder-return catalyst: the next dividend window.
Merck announced a $0.85 quarterly dividend (first quarter 2026), payable January 8, 2026, to shareholders of record as of December 15, 2025. [26]
Multiple market calendars list the ex-dividend date as December 15, 2025 (consistent with the current U.S. settlement convention where ex-date commonly aligns with record date). [27]
Dividend mechanics don’t change long-term value by themselves, but they can influence short-term flows—especially in a market that’s increasingly bifurcated between “growth at any price” and “cash returns + defensiveness.”
MRK stock forecast: consensus targets, base-case math, and what could break the model
Where price targets cluster now
Across common market aggregators, the consensus one‑year price target for Merck has generally clustered around the mid‑$100s, with a wide range between bearish and bullish views:
- MarketBeat lists an average target around $107 (with a range roughly $85–$125). [28]
- TradingView lists an analyst target near $107 with a wide range (max estimates substantially higher, min lower). [29]
- Fintel similarly shows an average target around $106, with lows in the low‑$80s and highs well above $140 depending on the firm/model. [30]
How to read this: the Street isn’t fighting over whether Merck is “real”; it’s fighting over how fast Merck can replace (or reshape) Keytruda-era cash flows.
A practical “what matters next” framework (not financial advice)
For MRK stock, the next 6–12 months often come down to a handful of yes/no questions:
- Regulatory sentiment: Does the RSV safety review stay procedural, or does it turn into policy-driven restriction? [31]
- Pipeline credibility: Do programs like Winrevair expansion and other late-stage assets keep producing data that support multi‑billion‑dollar expectations? [32]
- Competition timeline: Do Keytruda biosimilar programs advance smoothly (e.g., FYB206 data in Q1 2026), tightening the market’s discount rate on Keytruda? [33]
- Execution risk: Can Merck integrate acquisitions (Verona now; Cidara proposed) without diluting returns? [34]
- Vaccine normalization: Does the Gardasil China situation stabilize after inventory digestion, and does demand re-accelerate? [35]
The next MRK catalysts to watch (late 2025 into early 2026)
Here are the cleanest “calendar” items investors may track from here:
- Dec. 15, 2025: Ex-dividend/record date window for the $0.85 quarterly dividend (per Merck and major dividend calendars). [36]
- Q1 2026: Expected close timing for Merck’s Cidara acquisition (per Reuters) and a period when CD388 narrative could intensify. [37]
- Q1 2026: Formycon expects primary endpoint data for FYB206 (Keytruda biosimilar), which could affect how investors model Keytruda’s durability. [38]
- Feb. 3, 2026: MarketWatch lists Merck’s next major earnings date for full‑year 2025 reporting. [39]
Bottom line: Merck stock is being repriced—by catalysts, not vibes
MRK is in one of those classic big-pharma moments where the stock can look “boring” day-to-day while the underlying chessboard is anything but:
- Bull case fuel: rising price targets, Winrevair optimism, and deal-driven diversification that gives investors something concrete to model. [40]
- Bear case fuel: regulatory scrutiny around RSV products, clear signals of biosimilar momentum against Keytruda, and operational softness in vaccines (notably Gardasil China). [41]
Merck doesn’t need everything to go perfectly for the stock to work. But it does need enough things to go non-catastrophically—which, in pharma, is basically the closest thing we have to a love story.
References
1. www.marketwatch.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. www.marketwatch.com, 4. www.marketwatch.com, 5. www.marketwatch.com, 6. finance.yahoo.com, 7. www.marketbeat.com, 8. www.benzinga.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. apnews.com, 12. www.barrons.com, 13. www.formycon.com, 14. www.formycon.com, 15. www.merck.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.barrons.com, 20. www.investors.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.nasdaq.com, 24. www.nasdaq.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.merck.com, 27. www.dividend.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. www.tradingview.com, 30. fintel.io, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.barrons.com, 33. www.formycon.com, 34. www.merck.com, 35. www.nasdaq.com, 36. www.merck.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.formycon.com, 39. www.marketwatch.com, 40. www.investing.com, 41. www.reuters.com
