MUMBAI, December 12, 2025 — Indian equities extended Thursday’s rebound on Dalal Street on Friday, with the Nifty 50 trading above the 26,000 mark and the Sensex hovering near the 85,200 zone in a session shaped by two competing forces: supportive global risk sentiment after the US Federal Reserve’s rate cut, and renewed caution as the rupee slipped to fresh record lows ahead of key domestic inflation data due later today. [1]
Below is a consolidated, publication-ready wrap of today’s market action, the biggest headlines moving stocks, and the latest forecasts and technical levels shaping trader strategy on 12.12.2025.
India stock market today: Sensex and Nifty trade higher, broader market stays firm
By mid-morning trade, the Nifty 50 rose 0.41% to 26,005.50 and the BSE Sensex gained 0.42% to 85,166.16, supported by broad-based buying across most sectors. Importantly for market sentiment, mid-caps and small-caps outperformed, each up around 0.8% at that point, signalling healthy risk appetite beyond the index heavyweights. [2]
Around midday, live market tracking showed the Nifty continuing to hold above 26,000 as metals and cyclicals stayed in the driver’s seat, while investors awaited the inflation print. [3]
Market breadth also pointed to constructive participation: data shared through intraday updates showed advancers outnumbering decliners on the BSE and broader indices remaining in the green. [4]
What this means for investors: Friday’s move looked less like a narrow relief rally and more like a “participation day,” with leadership rotating into metals, financials, and select industrial names—though the currency shock remained a clear overhang.
Why Dalal Street is rising today: Fed cut lifts global mood, but India-specific risks persist
A major tailwind for Indian risk assets is the global “risk-on” tone following the Fed’s rate cut and a less aggressive trajectory being priced for 2026. US benchmarks have been flirting with record highs, feeding into improved sentiment across Asian markets. [5]
At the same time, global investors are not ignoring volatility pockets—particularly around big tech and AI-linked spending. Reuters flagged renewed jitters after weak forward signals from parts of the tech complex, even as broader markets remained supported by the policy backdrop. [6]
For India, the “good news” from global rates comes with a qualifier: foreign flows and the rupee remain the pressure points.
Rupee hits record low: the biggest risk factor shaping today’s trade
While equities rose, the Indian rupee weakened to record lows around 90.55–90.56 per US dollar on Friday, according to multiple market reports, reflecting a mix of trade uncertainty and portfolio outflows. [7]
What’s driving the rupee slide on 12.12.2025?
- US–India trade stalemate and tariff-related concerns have weighed on export visibility and foreign investor sentiment. Reuters reported US tariffs of up to 50% on Indian goods as a key macro headwind cited by market participants. [8]
- Foreign portfolio outflows remain significant. Reuters cited $18 billion pulled from Indian equities so far in 2025, while another Reuters report pointed to nearly $2.5 billion of outflows from stocks and bonds this month. [9]
- Traders also pointed to importer dollar demand and offshore market dynamics (including NDF activity) keeping the currency under pressure. [10]
Business Standard reported the rupee was down 1.15% so far this month and about 5.7% lower in calendar year 2025, making it among the weakest performers in Asia this year. [11]
RBI intervention watch
Market watchers believe the RBI likely intervened via state-run banks to smooth volatility as the currency tested new lows. [12]
Why this matters for stocks: A weaker rupee can support select exporters in theory, but sharp depreciation tends to raise “risk premium” concerns, complicate inflation expectations (especially via imported inputs), and can discourage incremental foreign buying—particularly when tariffs and trade headlines are already in play.
India inflation data today: CPI release due on December 12, 2025
The market’s next big trigger is India’s November 2025 CPI inflation, scheduled for release on Friday, December 12, 2025, per the Government of India’s release calendar communication. [13]
What economists expect (today’s preview)
A CPI preview report cited a median forecast of ~0.7% for November inflation (after October’s exceptionally low print), with expectations that inflation remains well below the RBI’s 2%–6% tolerance band. [14]
The same preview highlighted that:
- the modest rise is largely attributed to base effects and a narrowing of food deflation,
- core inflation (excluding food and fuel) is expected to remain elevated around the mid-4% range, influenced in part by high gold prices. [15]
Why CPI matters today: With markets still debating the RBI’s room to ease (or stay cautious), today’s inflation reading is a direct input into expectations on rates, liquidity, and valuation comfort—especially after the Fed’s move set the global backdrop.
Sector check: Metals, cyclicals and consumer durables lead; FMCG/IT show relative lag
Friday’s leadership was clearly cyclical.
- Live market commentary pointed to metals as a top-performing pocket, with sector strength visible across major trackers during the session. [16]
- Another market note described the metal sector leading while IT lagged marginally, reflecting rotation rather than broad risk-off selling. [17]
Consumer durables rally adds to the risk-on tone
Business Standard’s intraday update highlighted the Nifty Consumer Durables index up around 1%, with gains in names such as Dixon Technologies, Blue Star, Titan, Kalyan Jewellers, and Amber Enterprises among others. [18]
Takeaway: The day’s tape suggested investors were comfortable leaning into growth/cyclicals even as the rupee weakened—an important signal that global cues and domestic liquidity continue to provide a cushion.
Stocks in focus today: upgrades, privatisation chatter, and resource wins
Several single-stock stories stood out on 12.12.2025:
L&T and Thermax gain on brokerage action
Reuters highlighted Larsen & Toubro rising (around 2%+) and Thermax jumping (around 4%) following brokerage upgrades citing valuation and upside potential. [19]
IDBI Bank jumps as stake sale process heats up
IDBI Bank remained a market talking point after reports said Fairfax Financial and Kotak Mahindra Bank were among the remaining serious contenders as the government and LIC move forward with their divestment plan. Business Standard reported the plan involves selling a 60.72% stake, valued at nearly $7 billion at prevailing prices, and noted IDBI Bank shares have risen strongly over time as privatisation expectations built. [20]
Vedanta rises after critical mineral auction win
Vedanta shares moved higher after it emerged as the successful bidder for a critical mineral block (nickel, chromium and PGEs) under India’s auction programme—an announcement that helped sentiment around the stock and the broader metals complex. [21]
IPO tracker today: ICICI Prudential AMC in focus, alongside active issues
Primary markets were also part of the day’s financial conversation.
ICICI Prudential AMC IPO opens (one of the biggest deals in focus)
The ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company IPO opened on December 12, 2025, structured as an Offer for Sale (no fresh issue) with a price band of ₹2,061–₹2,165 and a minimum lot size of six shares, according to Business Standard. [22]
By early afternoon, reporting indicated the issue was booked in the low double-digits percentage-wise (around the 11% mark at one checkpoint), reflecting a measured start as investors weighed valuation and market conditions. [23]
Reuters had previously flagged the IPO as targeting roughly $1.2 billion and a valuation near $12 billion, underlining its significance for India’s capital markets narrative. [24]
Other IPO updates in today’s tape
Intraday IPO tracking also showed:
- Park Medi World seeing subscription above 1x (with bidding closing today),
- Nephrocare Health Services below full subscription at the time of the update. [25]
Why IPOs matter to the secondary market: Large IPOs can influence near-term liquidity, sentiment in financials, and risk appetite across high-beta names—especially when benchmark indices are hovering near psychological levels like 26,000.
Nifty and Bank Nifty outlook: key levels, support and resistance (technical view)
Technical levels were widely watched today because the index was testing a round-number zone.
According to Moneycontrol’s trading plan for December 12:
- Nifty resistance:26,000–26,100, with a sustained breakout opening a path toward 26,300
- Nifty support:25,800 and 25,700
- Strategy discussed: buy-on-dips while holding above 25,700 on a closing basis, with disciplined stop-losses until a decisive breakout occurs. [26]
For Bank Nifty, the same plan highlighted a consolidation range and spotlighted:
- key resistance near 59,500 (with higher targets cited above that zone),
- key supports clustered around 59,000 and below. [27]
What traders are watching into the close: whether Nifty can sustain above 26,000 decisively, or whether profit-taking returns near resistance—particularly if the rupee keeps weakening and CPI surprises.
Market forecasts and big-picture calls: Jefferies turns constructive on 2026 India equities
One of the most notable forward-looking notes on 12 December 2025 came from Jefferies, which argued Indian equities could fare better in 2026 as earnings improve and domestic flows remain supportive.
Key points reported:
- Nifty 50 year-end 2026 target: 28,300 (about ~10% upside from current levels at the time of the note)
- Domestic inflows estimated at roughly $7–8 billion per month across institutions and direct equity flows, seen as a buffer against foreign outflows
- Sector preferences: more positive on banking, autos, cement, hospitality, telecom, and real estate, while more cautious on staples, IT, industrials and pharma
- Currency view: the rupee expected to hover around 90 per US dollar over the next 6–12 months in their framework. [28]
Why this matters today: With the rupee at record lows and foreign flows still fragile, forecasts emphasizing domestic flow strength help explain why dips have been relatively contained and why broader-market participation remains resilient.
What to watch next: the catalysts that can move markets after today
As the market digests Friday’s moves, these are the most immediate drivers investors are tracking:
- India CPI inflation (Nov 2025) — the key domestic macro print due today. [29]
- Rupee path and RBI response — whether intervention keeps USD/INR volatility contained or if new lows trigger risk-off positioning. [30]
- US–India trade headlines — any tangible progress could ease pressure on both the rupee and foreign investor risk appetite. [31]
- Positioning around 26,000 on Nifty — a technical breakout vs. a “sell-the-resistance” fade remains the near-term tactical question. [32]
- IPO liquidity and sentiment — especially with a large financial-sector offering in the spotlight. [33]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. m.economictimes.com, 4. www.business-standard.com, 5. apnews.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.business-standard.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.pib.gov.in, 14. www.ndtvprofit.com, 15. www.ndtvprofit.com, 16. m.economictimes.com, 17. www.marketsmojo.com, 18. www.business-standard.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.business-standard.com, 21. m.economictimes.com, 22. www.business-standard.com, 23. www.business-standard.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.business-standard.com, 26. www.moneycontrol.com, 27. www.moneycontrol.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.pib.gov.in, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.moneycontrol.com, 33. www.business-standard.com
