Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock is trading around $447 on Friday, December 12, 2025, down about 1% from the previous close as investors weigh a fresh demand warning in the U.S. against continued enthusiasm for Tesla’s autonomy and “AI platform” narrative.
Today’s Tesla story is a familiar one: vehicle demand is softening in key markets, but robotaxi and full self-driving headlines keep the long-term bull case alive, leaving Wall Street forecasts widely split.
Tesla stock price today: TSLA wobbles as investors digest demand data
TSLA is changing hands near $446–$447 in early Friday trading (as of the latest available quote), reflecting ongoing volatility around growth-stock sentiment and Tesla-specific catalysts.
For additional context on where Tesla sits in its recent range, third-party market data shows TSLA’s 52-week range has been roughly $214 to $489—a reminder of how sharply the stock can re-rate on changing narratives about EV demand and autonomy timelines. [1]
The biggest TSLA-moving headline: U.S. November Tesla sales fall to a multi-year low
A Reuters report published late Thursday (U.S. time) is setting the tone into Friday: Tesla’s U.S. sales fell nearly 23% year-over-year in November to about 39,800 vehicles, the lowest since January 2022, based on Cox Automotive estimates shared exclusively with Reuters. [2]
Two details in that report stand out for investors:
- The EV incentive cliff is biting. Reuters notes U.S. EV sales broadly weakened after the $7,500 federal tax credit ended and that Tesla introduced lower-priced “Standard” versions of the Model Y and Model 3 in October to defend demand. [3]
- Lower-cost trims may be cannibalizing higher-margin demand. Cox Automotive’s analysis (as reported by Reuters) suggested the Standard variants didn’t provide the hoped-for volume lift and instead pulled demand away from Premium versions. [4]
Reuters also highlights that Tesla has been advertising aggressive promotions—such as 0% financing on the Standard Model Y—which some market participants interpret as a sign that demand remains under pressure even for newly introduced trims. [5]
Why this matters for Tesla stock
Tesla’s valuation debate has increasingly shifted from “car company” metrics to autonomy/AI metrics—but vehicle sales and pricing still pay the bills. When demand softens, investors immediately focus on the risk of margin pressure, inventory growth, and slower cash generation, especially if Tesla must keep leaning on price cuts or subsidized financing.
The policy backdrop: the EV tax credit is gone—and Tesla is adjusting pricing
Reuters previously reported that Tesla raised U.S. lease prices after the $7,500 federal tax credit expired, following sweeping legislation that eliminated credits for new EV purchases and leases (and also removed a used EV credit) effective September 30, 2025. [6]
That timing matters because it aligns with the demand slump described in the Cox/Reuters November data—and helps explain why investors are treating late-2025 sales trends as a leading indicator for how difficult 2026 could be without incentives.
Global demand pressures: Europe and China remain difficult battlegrounds
Tesla’s U.S. weakness isn’t happening in isolation.
A Reuters analysis in late November summarized Tesla’s challenge across the three biggest car markets (U.S., Europe, China), noting:
- Tesla’s European sales fell 48.5% in October versus the prior year (per ACEA data cited by Reuters), and were down about 30% year-to-date in the region—even as industrywide EV sales rose 26%. [7]
- Global Tesla deliveries are expected to decline about 7% in 2025, according to Visible Alpha figures cited by Reuters. [8]
Tesla’s China picture has also been described as highly competitive and volatile in recent reporting, with Reuters noting periods where local rivals gained share rapidly and Tesla’s monthly sales fell sharply. [9]
Meanwhile, Barron’s framed Tesla’s 2025 issue more bluntly: EV sales are falling, competition is intensifying, and the company faces a “global headache,” even as investors increasingly look past car sales toward autonomy and AI-driven optionality. [10]
Autonomy headlines are back in focus: robotaxi “safety monitors” could be removed soon, Musk says
On the bullish side of the ledger, Tesla’s autonomy story is getting fresh oxygen.
Investors.com reported on December 12 that Elon Musk said Tesla plans to remove “safety monitors” from its Austin robotaxi fleet within about three weeks, positioning that as a step toward a more fully autonomous service. The report also notes Musk discussed a new FSD model coming in early 2026 and spoke confidently about progress—while the current system remains “supervised.” [11]
Separately, Reuters reporting earlier in 2025 described Tesla’s robotaxi rollout as initially constrained and carefully monitored—such as a Texas trial that could involve a small number of Model Y vehicles, with remote monitoring, and potential limitations in bad weather or other conditions. [12]
Why this matters for TSLA forecasts
For many institutional investors, the autonomy thesis is the key reason Tesla can trade at a valuation far above traditional automakers. Any credible milestone—expanded service areas, reduced human intervention, regulatory progress—can quickly become the dominant driver of TSLA’s near-term price action, sometimes overshadowing weak EV demand.
Wall Street is split: a “Hold” consensus, but a very wide range of price targets
The most important thing to know about Tesla stock forecasts right now: there isn’t one Tesla story—there are several, and analyst models diverge sharply depending on how much value they assign to autonomy, robotics, and network effects.
One widely-cited snapshot of the Street shows:
- Consensus stance: “Hold”
- Average 12‑month price target: about $399
- High-end target: about $600
- Low-end target: extremely bearish outliers exist [13]
That spread is not a rounding error—it’s a sign that Tesla is being valued simultaneously as:
- an EV manufacturer exposed to demand cycles and pricing pressure, and
- an AI/robotics platform with potential winner-take-most economics.
Key analyst calls shaping the December 12, 2025 narrative
Morgan Stanley: downgrade to “Hold” on valuation concerns
Business Insider reported that Morgan Stanley downgraded Tesla to an “Equal Weight/Hold” stance on December 8, 2025, citing valuation concerns—even while nudging its price target up to $425. The report also says Morgan Stanley reduced its 2026 volume expectations and expressed concern that AI optimism may already be priced in. [14]
Barron’s similarly summarized the call as part of a broader “EV winter” view, with Morgan Stanley arguing that EV makers face a tougher demand backdrop into 2026 and that Tesla’s upside depends heavily on the pace of its autonomy rollout. [15]
Bullish targets remain anchored to autonomy + “physical AI”
In recent months, bullish analysts have defended higher targets by emphasizing Tesla’s “AI revolution” framing—robotaxi services, software/network revenue, and Optimus humanoid robotics. For example, Investing.com reported that Wedbush raised its Tesla target to $600 on an AI-and-robotics-driven thesis. [16]
(Other firms have also issued optimistic notes around “physical AI” positioning, often pairing upgrades with sharply higher targets.) [17]
The bear case hasn’t gone away: valuation, dilution, and “Musk risk” remain recurring themes
Michael Burry’s critique: “ridiculously overvalued”
Reuters reported in early December that investor Michael Burry argued Tesla was “ridiculously overvalued,” citing ongoing share dilution, the potential impact of Musk’s compensation, and Tesla’s very high forward earnings multiple compared with the broader market. [18]
Whether or not investors agree with Burry’s conclusion, the underlying point is central to Tesla’s volatility: when the market mood turns against high-multiple “AI” stories, Tesla can get hit on valuation compression alone, even without a single new negative development at the company.
The “Musk attention” discount: SpaceX headlines can spill over
A Reuters story published December 12 about a potential SpaceX IPO underscores an evergreen Tesla investing theme: Musk’s attention is spread across multiple high-intensity ventures, and public shareholders can struggle to price that governance and execution risk. Reuters explicitly notes that Tesla investors have long had to balance ambitious parallel bets—and Musk’s framing of Tesla as an AI/robotics platform rather than simply an automaker. [19]
Macro context on December 12: AI sentiment is wobbling again
Even for Tesla, the macro tape matters.
On December 12, Reuters reported U.S. index futures softened after Broadcom’s results reignited concerns about an AI bubble and margins—pressuring parts of the AI-linked trade. [20]
That’s relevant for TSLA because a significant portion of Tesla’s premium valuation is supported by AI expectations (robotaxi software economics, neural networks, robotics). When investors rotate away from high-multiple AI narratives, Tesla often trades with that cohort—even if the day’s news is primarily about cars.
Tesla stock outlook: what investors are watching next
Here are the practical catalysts most likely to drive Tesla stock forecasting over the next several weeks:
- Evidence demand is stabilizing without incentives
With tax credits gone, investors will scrutinize whether Tesla can maintain volumes without escalating price cuts and subsidized financing. [21] - Robotaxi expansion and “supervised vs. unsupervised” milestones
Markets will watch whether Tesla can reduce human oversight, expand geographically, and sustain safety performance—especially as Musk signals aggressive timelines. [22] - New-vehicle cadence (or lack thereof)
Reuters and industry analysts continue to emphasize that Tesla may need fresh models to reignite demand as competitors roll out newer, cheaper options. [23] - How investors price the “two Teslas”
The central question for 2026 forecasts is whether Tesla is valued primarily on:- auto cycles and margins, or
- AI platform optionality (robotaxi + robotics).
That split is the reason analyst price targets range so widely. [24]
Bottom line for December 12, 2025
Tesla stock is being pulled in opposite directions today:
- Bearish pressure: U.S. sales data points to a demand slowdown after the EV incentive cliff, and analysts warn that cheaper trims and promotions may not be enough to restore growth. [25]
- Bullish support: Autonomy headlines—especially around robotaxi operations—keep the “Tesla as AI platform” thesis in play, which is crucial for TSLA’s premium valuation. [26]
- Forecast reality: Wall Street remains deeply divided, with a “Hold”-leaning consensus and a very wide distribution of price targets reflecting radically different assumptions about autonomy and robotics commercialization. [27]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.barrons.com, 11. www.investors.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. www.businessinsider.com, 15. www.barrons.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.investors.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.investors.com, 27. www.marketbeat.com
