The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) is moving sharply in December 2025. Here’s the latest MOS stock news, analyst price targets, earnings outlook, dividend details, and key risks for 2026.
Mosaic stock price today: MOS jumps as fertilizer headlines hit the tape
The Mosaic Company’s stock (NYSE: MOS ) was trading around $26.10 on Friday, December 12, 2025 , up about $0.91 (roughly +3.6% ) in the session. The day’s trading range was approximately $25.51 to $26.23 .
That move follows a sharp rebound in fertilizer names late this week, with investors reacting to geopolitics, tightening supply narratives, and a fresh round of analyst updates heading into 2026. [1]
Why is Mosaic stock rising? A geopolitical “supply shock” theme returns
The catalyst dominating the latest fertilizer trade is renewed concern over potential disruptions to Russian-linked fertilizer supply , after Ukraine said its drones struck two fertilizer plants in western Russia . TipRanks/TheFly also cited reporting around a fire at a chemical plant in Veliky Novgorod following a drone attack overnight on December 11 . [2]
In market terms, this kind of headline tends to move fertilizer equities quickly because prices for crop nutrients can react to even short-lived supply fears—especially when global inventories are perceived as tight or when export flows are already constrained by policy and logistics. That sensitivity was visible in Thursday’s broad fertilizer rally, which placed Mosaic among the notable gainers. [3]
What investors are effectively pricing in:
- If supply risk escalates, fertilizer prices can firm , improving realized pricing for producers.
- If the event proves isolated and supply continues normally, the move can fade—meaning this is a catalyst with high headline risk rather than a “set-and-forget” thesis. [4]
Phosphate pricing update: Mosaic’s winter fill offer suggests softer near-term pricing
Not all the latest Mosaic-linked headlines are bullish for pricing. On December 2, 2025 , Argus reported that Mosaic rolled out a phosphate winter fill program with December-loading offers at New Orleans (NOLA) :
- DAP:$650/st fob
- MAP:$630/st fob
Argus noted these were significantly below the prior month’s average levels (down $70/st for DAP and $63/st for MAP versus the Argus November monthly average), and that the program was open until December 5 . [5]
Why this matters for MOS stock: phosphate pricing is a major earnings driver, and winter fill programs can signal that producers are working to stimulate seasonal demand (or defend share) when buyers are cautious.
At the same time, Mosaic’s own outlook commentary has emphasized that global fertilizer markets have often been “balanced to tight,” while noting that affordability can pull demand forward when prices reset lower. [6]
Mosaic’s latest earnings and guidance: what the company told investors
Mosaic’s most recent quarterly detail (Third Quarter 2025 release filed as an exhibit) included both segment performance and forward-looking volume/price expectations—key inputs for any MOS stock forecast discussion.
Potash: higher volumes, lower unit costs—and a watchful eye on North America
In potash for Q3 2025 , Mosaic reported (segment figures):
- Net sales:$695 million
- Sales volumes:2.3 million tonnes
- MOP selling price (FOB mine):$271/ton
- MOP cash cost of production:$71/ton
- Segment Adjusted EBITDA:$329 million [7]
For the full year 2025 , Mosaic guided potash production volumes to 9.1–9.4 million tonnes , explicitly flagging potential deferral demand in North America . For Q4 , Mosaic expected:
- Potash sales volumes:2.3–2.6 million tonnes
- Realized mine-gate MOP prices:$270–$280/ton [8]
Phosphate: pricing strong vs. last year, but costs and seasonality matter
For Q3 2025 phosphate, Mosaic reported:
- Net sales:$1.3 billion
- Sales volumes:1.6 million tonnes
- DAP selling price (FOB plant):$714/ton
- Cash cost of conversion:$131/ton
- Segment Adjusted EBITDA:$280 million [9]
For Q4 2025 , Mosaic expected:
- Phosphate sales volumes:1.7–1.9 million tonnes
- DAP prices (FOB basis):$700–$730/ton (expected average) [10]
Brazil (Mosaic Fertilizantes): volume strength, credit discipline remains key
Mosaic Fertilizers in Q3 2025 included:
- Net sales:$1.6 billion
- Sales volumes:2.8 million tonnes
- Segment Adjusted EBITDA:$241 million
The company also referenced recovering $27 million of prior bad debt expense in the quarter and highlighted continued credit constraints in Brazil as a risk factor for near-term profitability. [11]
Strategic actions: portfolio reshaping and optionality
In the same release, Mosaic described several actions and “watch items” investors often miss:
- Sale of the Patos de Minas mine for $111 million (with $51 million collected at closing; remaining proceeds over four years)
- Sale of the Taquari potash mine for $27 million (expected to eliminate capital investments exceeding $25 million and asset retirement obligations of $22 million )
- Continued work on strategic alternatives for the Carlsbad, New Mexico potash mine
- Studies related to a niobium opportunity at certain Brazil phosphate operations, with the company expecting to reengage parties in H1 2026 [12]
Dividend and balance sheet: what income investors are watching
MOS dividend: payment date and record date
Mosaic’s board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.22 per share , payable December 18, 2025 , to shareholders of record as of December 4, 2025 . [13]
At a ~$26 share price, that implies an annualized dividend of $0.88 and a yield in the mid-3% range—although the yield will move with the stock price. [14]
Liquidity move: Mosaic’s $900 million senior notes offering
In November, Mosaic also completed an underwritten public offering of:
- $500 million of 4.350% senior notes due January 2029
- $400 million of 4,600% senior notes due November 2030
Mosaic said proceeds would be used for general corporate purposes , potentially including debt repayment , and the CFO characterized the company’s credit metrics as supportive of its investment grade rating. [15]
Analyst forecasts for Mosaic stock: price targets reset, but consensus still sees upside
The analyst picture around Mosaic has been evolving, with several firms trimming targets into year-end while keeping ratings mostly neutral-to-positive.
RBC: $27 target, “Sector Perform,” and a 2026 fertilizer preview
On December 10 , RBC Capital lowered its price target to $27 from $30 and maintained a Sector Perform rating. In its broader 2026 fertilizer outlook, RBC pointed to steady ag/fertilizer fundamentals (constructive ag backdrop, solid demand, limited new supply), but suggested Mosaic’s potential operational improvements in phosphate could be offset by lower prices and input costs . [16]
Street consensus: “Moderate Buy,” targets in the low $30s (on average)
MarketBeat’s compilation (based on 18 analysts) lists Mosaic with a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating and a $32.13 average 12-month price target (high $43 , low $24 ). [17]
Fintel-based summaries published via Nasdaq have also shown mid-$30s average target estimates in recent snapshots (methodologies differ by platform and timing). [18]
Options and “sentiment” indicators: calls surge, short interest stays moderate
Two sentiment cross-currents stood out this week:
- Options activity: MarketBeat reported unusually heavy call buying on December 11 (about 18,192 call options , roughly 96% above average daily call volume). [19]
- Short interest: MarketBeat’s latest short-interest update showed ~14.34 million shares sold short ( ~4.54% of float) with an estimated 1.7 days to cover as of November 14, 2025 —not “crowded” by typical short-squeeze standards, but still meaningful. [20]
Valuation debate: is Mosaic stock “cheap,” or just cyclical?
One reason MOS keeps showing up on screens: valuation multiples often look compressed late in a cycle. A Simply Wall St note published on December 12, 2025 argued Mosaic screens as undervalued on multiple checks, citing:
- A DCF-based intrinsic value estimate around $34.77/share
- A stated implied discount vs. market price of roughly 31.7%
- A cited P/E around 6.1x (vs higher broader/industry comparables in its framework) [21]
That said, investors should treat any single valuation model as a scenario , not a conclusion—particularly for fertilizer producers where earnings can swing materially with nutrient prices, export policy, and weather-driven demand.
The longer-term “critical minerals” tailwind: phosphate and potash get a strategic label
A unique element in Mosaic’s longer-term narrative: phosphate and potash are increasingly framed as strategic inputs tied to food security and industrial supply chains.
Mosaic highlighted that the US Department of the Interior decision on November 6, 2025 added phosphate and potash to the nation’s Critical Minerals List , with Mosaic’s CEO summarizing the theme as “food security is national security.” Mosaic also pointed to the potential strategic value of byproducts such as phosphogypsum , which it says contains meaningful amounts of certain rare earth elements, and stated it supports research into responsible recovery. [22]
The Interior Department’s release on the final 2025 list noted the list added 10 new minerals , including phosphate and potash . [23]The USGS “About” page states the 2025 list includes the prior 50 minerals plus 10 additional ones. [24]
For MOS stock investors, the practical takeaway: the “critical minerals” label doesn’t instantly change quarterly earnings, but it can influence longer-term policy, permitting priorities, and how markets value domestic producers over time.
Key risks for Mosaic stock investors heading into 2026
Even after this week’s rally, Mosaic remains a stock where fundamentals can pivot fast. The main risks in the current setup:
- Phosphate price slippage: Winter fill pricing and softer offers can pressure realized margins if demand doesn’t re-accelerate in spring. [25]
- Demand deferral: Mosaic has explicitly warned that North American demand could shift timing depending on economics and uncertainty. [26]
- Brazil credit environment: Management commentary highlighted the need for ongoing credit discipline, and it remains a swing factor for distribution profitability. [27]
- Geopolitical volatility (two-sided): Supply disruptions can lift fertilizer prices (helping producers), but easing tensions or increased exports can reverse the move quickly. [28]
- Execution and cost control: Mosaic’s quarter included commentary on operational issues being addressed and expectations for improved production rates—execution matters if prices soften. [29]
Bottom line: MOS is trading the news, but the 2026 thesis is bigger than one headline
As of December 12, 2025 , Mosaic stock is being pulled by two forces at once:
- Short-term: a geopolitics-driven supply-risk trade pushing fertilizer names higher. [30]
- Medium-term: a more nuanced fundamentals picture where Mosaic expects solid potash volumes and improving phosphate operations, but acknowledges demand timing issues and pricing/cost offsets. [31]
Wall Street’s aggregated view remains broadly constructive (often “Moderate Buy” with targets in the low-$30s on average), yet recent target trims highlight that analysts still see Mosaic as a cyclical stock that must be timed and risk-managed—not simply “held forever.” [32]
References
1. www.tipranks.com, 2. www.tipranks.com, 3. www.tipranks.com, 4. www.tipranks.com, 5. www.argusmedia.com, 6. www.sec.gov, 7. www.sec.gov, 8. www.sec.gov, 9. www.sec.gov, 10. www.sec.gov, 11. www.sec.gov, 12. www.sec.gov, 13. investors.mosaicco.com, 14. investors.mosaicco.com, 15. investors.mosaicco.com, 16. www.tipranks.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.nasdaq.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. simplywall.st, 22. investors.mosaicco.com, 23. www.doi.gov, 24. www.usgs.gov, 25. www.argusmedia.com, 26. www.sec.gov, 27. www.sec.gov, 28. www.tipranks.com, 29. www.sec.gov, 30. www.tipranks.com, 31. www.sec.gov, 32. www.marketbeat.com
