As of mid-afternoon Friday (Dec. 12, 2025, around 3:30 p.m. ET), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is down about 0.4%–0.5% near 48,487, after briefly setting a fresh intraday record earlier in the session. 1
The story of “Dow Jones today” is less about an economic shock—and more about a sharp rotation away from high-flying AI and tech stocks, just one day after record closes, with Treasury yields rising and investors bracing for a crucial week of delayed U.S. economic data. 2
Dow Jones live update at 3:30 PM ET
Here’s where major markets stand in late-afternoon trade:
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: ~48,487 (down roughly 0.4%–0.5%) 1
- S&P 500: ~6,828 (down roughly ~1.1%) 1
- Nasdaq Composite: ~23,220 (down roughly ~1.6%) 1
- CBOE Volatility Index (VIX): ~15.96 (up roughly ~7%) 1
- U.S. 10-year yield: ~4.19% (higher on the day) 1
- WTI crude oil: ~$57 (lower on the day) 1
The Dow’s day range has been wide: roughly 48,334 to 48,887, with the index opening near 48,715 before the reversal lower. 1
Why the Dow is down today: the market’s “AI reality check”
1) Broadcom and Oracle spark a fresh wave of “AI bubble” anxiety
A major catalyst Friday has been renewed concern about whether the massive AI spending boom can keep delivering profits at the pace the market has priced in.
- Broadcom dropped sharply after warning that future margins could come under pressure, reigniting debate about the profitability of AI hardware and infrastructure buildouts. 2
- Oracle extended its slide after a weak forecast, and while it denied a report about OpenAI data center delays, the broader fear—soaring capex and uncertain payoff timelines—has been hard to shake. 2
In Reuters’ afternoon snapshot, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were at more than two-week lows, reflecting how concentrated the pressure has been in growth and tech leadership. 2
2) Higher Treasury yields add pressure to expensive growth stocks
Stocks also faced a headwind from the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed toward ~4.19%, which can raise the bar for richly valued equities—especially the kinds of long-duration growth names that dominated much of 2025’s rally. 3
3) Fed dissenters push back on “easy money” assumptions
Even after the Federal Reserve’s rate cut earlier this week, the day’s tone has been shaped by public dissents and inflation caution:
- Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said he opposed the cut because inflation remains too hot and policy should stay modestly restrictive. 4
- Reuters reported that the rise in yields on Friday followed comments from Fed officials who voted against easing, reinforcing the idea that the path of cuts in 2026 could be contested. 2
Bottom line: the market may like lower rates—but it likes confidence and clarity even more. Today delivered neither.
Dow vs. Nasdaq: the rotation trade is back
One of the most important “Dow Jones today” dynamics is index composition.
The Dow is less dominated by mega-cap tech than the Nasdaq, but it’s also price-weighted, meaning high-priced constituents can move the index disproportionately. That matters on days like today.
MarketWatch’s breakdown shows the Dow’s downside has been heavily influenced by a handful of components:
- Caterpillar and NVIDIA were among the biggest drags, with additional pressure from names such as IBM, Amazon, and Cisco (also highlighted as notable contributors to the decline). 5
At the same time, early-session Dow strength was supported by defensive and consumer-linked components:
- UnitedHealth and Nike helped lift the index earlier Friday, alongside other contributors like Disney, Verizon, and Boeing. 6
This split helps explain the day’s “tug of war”: tech-heavy benchmarks fell harder, while the Dow tried to hold up better—but still cracked as selling broadened.
Sector snapshot: tech hit hard while defensives try to stabilize the tape
Reuters reported that eight of 11 S&P 500 sectors were lower, with technology leading declines—a sign that this isn’t a random dip, but a targeted de-risking in the market’s most crowded trade. 2
At the same time, defensive areas such as consumer staples and parts of healthcare showed relative resilience as investors looked for shelter after Thursday’s record closes. 2
Biggest single-stock headlines moving markets today
Even amid the tech selloff, a few stock-specific stories are helping shape the day’s narrative:
- Lululemon surged after raising its annual profit forecast and announcing CEO Calvin McDonald will depart. 2
- Costco slipped despite beating quarterly revenue and profit estimates—suggesting the market’s bar for “good news” remains high. 2
- Cannabis stocks jumped after a report that President Donald Trump is expected to push for easing federal marijuana restrictions (a separate pocket of risk-on behavior in a market otherwise rotating away from speculative tech). 7
What’s next: why next week’s data could reset the Dow’s direction
A key reason traders are hesitant to “buy the dip” aggressively is that next week brings a rare cluster of high-impact reports—especially because parts of the calendar have been distorted by earlier government funding disruptions.
Reuters noted that investors are looking ahead to non-farm payrolls, inflation, and retail sales due next week, following a period in which the October shutdown reduced the flow of official releases. 2
S&P Global’s week-ahead preview also highlights:
- A delayed U.S. October employment report (including payrolls) expected Tuesday
- U.S. CPI inflation expected Thursday
- Additional global indicators (including flash PMIs) that could influence risk sentiment into year-end 8
This matters for the Dow because the index’s best runs typically come when markets can simultaneously believe two things:
- the economy is holding up, and
- rates are headed lower without inflation re-accelerating.
Next week’s data will test that balance.
Forecasts and analysis: what strategists are saying on Dec. 12, 2025
Today’s market action is also landing as Wall Street ramps up its 2026 outlooks.
Goldman’s big call: “Mag 7” still matter, but leadership may broaden
A Barron’s report citing Goldman Sachs suggests the Magnificent Seven are expected to remain a major earnings engine in 2026, but with a growing case that gains broaden beyond megacap tech. Goldman’s cited S&P 500 2026 target of 7,600 reflects optimism—but not a straight-line replay of 2025. 9
Rotation + seasonality: can a “Santa rally” survive the AI shakeout?
MarketPulse’s analysis frames today as a potential “reality check” inside a still-bullish seasonal window, noting historical late-December strength while emphasizing that investors may need confirmation from next week’s jobs and inflation data before risk appetite returns. 10
Financials lens: a more constructive 2026 setup for banks
On the single-name side, Reuters reported J.P. Morgan upgraded Citigroup, pointing to progress on its turnaround and a view that 2026 could be supported by a solid economy, active markets, and shifting regulatory conditions—an angle that matters for Dow financial components and broader cyclicals. 11
The takeaway for “Dow Jones today” readers
At 3:30 p.m. ET on Dec. 12, the Dow is not collapsing—it’s digesting:
- Tech/AI leaders are being repriced after another round of capex-and-margins scrutiny. 2
- Yields are rising as Fed dissenters underline that inflation risk hasn’t vanished. 4
- Investors are wary heading into a data-packed week that could validate—or challenge—the market’s “soft landing + lower rates” storyline. 8
If the upcoming reports show cooling inflation without a sharp growth slowdown, today’s pullback could end up looking like a late-week reset after record highs. If not, the Dow’s recent resilience could face a tougher test into year-end.
Market data referenced is as of approximately 3:30 p.m. ET and can change rapidly. This article is for informational purposes only, not investment advice. 1
