Carvana Co. (NYSE: CVNA) ended Friday, December 12, 2025, on a sharp reversal day after printing fresh highs earlier in the session. The stock closed at $455.68, down $17.05 (-3.61%), and was little changed in the early after-hours session at about $455.25 shortly after the closing bell. [1]
One important calendar note: December 13, 2025 is a Saturday, so U.S. stock markets are closed. The next regular session begins Monday, December 15, 2025 (with premarket trading starting earlier that morning for most brokers).
Below is what investors and traders are watching after the bell—and what matters most heading into the next open.
What happened to Carvana stock after the bell on Dec. 12, 2025?
CVNA finished the regular session lower despite a much stronger start. On StockAnalysis data, Carvana traded with a wide range on Friday—opening around $471.68, hitting an intraday high near $485.33, and sliding to a low around $455.00 before settling near $455.68 at the close. Trading volume was roughly 6.0 million shares. [2]
In the early after-hours market, CVNA was essentially flat versus the close—down just a fraction of a percent to roughly $455.25 shortly after 4:00 p.m. ET. [3]
Why that matters: Friday’s drop came at a time when the stock had been pushing to record levels and attracting intense attention ahead of a major index event (more below). The result is a more complicated setup into next week: strong momentum still exists, but volatility is rising and headlines are piling up.
The biggest driver in the background: Carvana’s S&P 500 inclusion
Carvana is set to join the S&P 500, effective December 22, 2025, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices (as reported by Reuters). [4]
That inclusion has been a major narrative tailwind across the past week because index additions can create mechanical demand from passive funds and benchmarked strategies that need to hold the new member. Reuters framed the move as a striking turnaround after Carvana’s 2022 distress period, noting the company’s shift toward tighter cost controls, debt reduction, and a return to profitability. [5]
Market commentary leading into Friday also emphasized just how extended the run had become. Barron’s highlighted Carvana’s longest winning streak as a public company earlier this week, powered largely by the S&P 500 inclusion theme and upbeat sentiment. [6]
What to watch next: Stocks that surge into a widely anticipated catalyst sometimes see “buy the rumor, sell the news” dynamics—especially if positioning becomes crowded. That doesn’t mean the index event stops being important; it means price action can become hypersensitive to any incremental data point (analyst notes, filings, macro risk-off moves).
Fresh analyst forecast updates on Dec. 12: Citi lifts its target to $550
One of the most notable “today” items for CVNA was a new analyst action:
- Citi raised Carvana’s price target to $550 (from $445) while maintaining a positive stance, per TheFly/TipRanks early Friday. [7]
That follows additional very recent target increases from other firms earlier in the week, including:
- Jefferies: raised target to $550 (from $475) [8]
- Barclays: raised target to $465 (from $390) [9]
- Evercore ISI: raised target to $420 (from $395) [10]
- BofA reiterated Buy and raised its target to $455 in commentary tied to the S&P 500 catalyst, according to Barron’s. [11]
The “forecast gap” investors should understand
Even with upgrades, some widely referenced consensus snapshots still cluster around the low-to-mid $400s. For example, StockAnalysis lists a consensus price target around the mid-$400s (roughly $426–$450 depending on the source snapshot) with a high end at $550 and a low at $275. [12]
Translation: Wall Street is not speaking with one voice. Bulls argue Carvana’s model and operating leverage justify a premium; skeptics argue the stock is already pricing in a lot of perfection.
A real-time headline risk on Dec. 12: insider selling filings (Form 144)
Another item crossing the tape on December 12: a Form 144 filing (notice of proposed sale of restricted securities).
Refinitiv/Reuters reporting via TradingView noted that Taira Thomas, an officer of Carvana, filed a Form 144 on Dec. 12, 2025 proposing to sell 10,000 shares, and that the transaction was pursuant to a prearranged 10b5-1 trading plan. [13]
How to interpret it:
Form 144 headlines can spook momentum names because they are easy to reduce to “insider selling.” But context matters—10b5-1 plans are typically scheduled in advance, and executives sell for many non-bearish reasons (taxes, diversification, liquidity). Still, in a stock that has sprinted higher into a major index event, filings like these can amplify volatility because traders react quickly.
Options market action on Dec. 12: a $2.2 million bullish call spread
Carvana’s options market continues to flash “high attention.” MarketChameleon reported that on December 12, a trader put more than $2.2 million into a 450–490 call spread (a bet structured to benefit if the stock rises, but with defined risk versus outright calls). [14]
Why it matters before the next open:
Large, visible option structures can influence short-term flows—especially in stocks with heavy retail participation and elevated implied volatility. It’s not a guarantee of direction, but it’s a signal that big-money speculation is still active even after Friday’s reversal.
Market context: Friday was a risk-off day for high-momentum trades
While Carvana is not an “AI stock,” it does trade like a high-beta momentum name at times—meaning broad swings in risk appetite can spill into CVNA.
On Friday, U.S. markets saw renewed volatility as tech slid and investors reassessed parts of the AI rally. Reuters pointed to pressure after Broadcom’s outlook reignited valuation fears, helping pull down major indexes. [15]
The Associated Press likewise described it as Wall Street’s worst day in weeks, driven by sharp drops in prominent tech names and higher yields. [16]
Why that matters for CVNA: When markets rotate away from “crowded winners,” stocks that have run hard—regardless of sector—can become sources of quick profit-taking.
Fundamentals check: what Carvana’s last reported results say (and what the debate is)
Momentum aside, Carvana’s rally has been anchored to a real operational turnaround.
In its Q3 2025 results, Carvana reported:
- 155,941 retail units sold (+44% YoY)
- Revenue of $5.647 billion (+55% YoY)
- Net income of $263 million (4.7% margin)
- Adjusted EBITDA of $637 million (11.3% margin) [17]
The bull case: scale + operating leverage + share gains.
The bear case: valuation is rich and expectations may be getting ahead of the cycle; any wobble in credit, used-car pricing, or funding conditions can hit sentiment quickly.
What to know before the next market open (Monday, Dec. 15, 2025)
Here’s a practical checklist for the next session after the Dec. 13 weekend:
1) Watch whether $455 becomes a “line in the sand”
Friday’s action pulled CVNA down to the mid-$450s, with the session low near $455 and an early after-hours print still around that level. [18]
If the stock can reclaim higher levels quickly, bulls may argue Friday was a shakeout. If it fails to bounce, traders may treat it as a momentum break.
2) Expect headlines tied to the S&P 500 rebalance window
The inclusion date (Dec. 22) is set. [19]
As that date approaches, investors will debate:
- how much passive buying is still “ahead,”
- whether the trade is already crowded, and
- whether the stock sees pre-inclusion volatility.
3) More analyst notes can move the tape
Citi’s $550 target is fresh as of Friday. [20]
Given how headline-sensitive CVNA has been, any follow-on notes, target changes, or “valuation caution” pieces can trigger outsized moves.
4) Keep an eye on filings and insider-related headlines
The Form 144 story is out there, and the market is primed to react to additional filings—fairly or not. [21]
5) Be aware of event-driven visibility next week
A separate TheFly/TipRanks item notes that Carvana is scheduled to participate in a BTIG conference call with management on Dec. 17 at 2 p.m. [22]
Even if no “news” is expected, investors often trade around Q&A events when a stock is this hot.
Bottom line
Carvana stock heads into the weekend with a new reality: the rally is still the story, but volatility is back. The stock fell to about $455 at Friday’s close, stayed roughly flat after-hours, and remains in the spotlight ahead of its S&P 500 inclusion on Dec. 22. [23]
Going into the next trading session (Monday, Dec. 15), the most important themes are:
(1) whether the pullback is contained, (2) how the market digests the flood of new price targets (including Citi’s $550), and (3) whether filings and positioning create additional headline-driven swings. [24]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.barrons.com, 7. www.tipranks.com, 8. www.tipranks.com, 9. www.tipranks.com, 10. www.tipranks.com, 11. www.barrons.com, 12. stockanalysis.com, 13. www.tradingview.com, 14. marketchameleon.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. apnews.com, 17. investors.carvana.com, 18. stockanalysis.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.tipranks.com, 21. www.tradingview.com, 22. www.tipranks.com, 23. stockanalysis.com, 24. www.tipranks.com
