Marvell Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MRVL) ended Friday, December 12, 2025, at $84.43, down 5.59% on the day and about 14.6% lower over the last five trading sessions (from $98.91 on Dec. 5 to $84.43 on Dec. 12). [1]
The selloff wasn’t driven by a single headline. Instead, MRVL faced a one-two punch: renewed investor anxiety about its hyperscaler custom-chip relationships (particularly Microsoft and Amazon) early in the week, followed by a broader semiconductor pullback on Friday as investors digested fresh margin and “AI boom” fears tied to peers in the sector. [2]
Below is a full, publication-ready breakdown of what moved Marvell stock this week, what the company has announced in recent days, what analysts are forecasting, and what to watch in the week ahead.
MRVL stock recap: a volatile week in five sessions
Here’s how the week unfolded for MRVL based on daily pricing:
- Mon, Dec. 8: $92.00 (-6.99%)
- Tue, Dec. 9: $88.90 (-3.37%)
- Wed, Dec. 10: $92.47 (+4.02%)
- Thu, Dec. 11: $89.43 (-3.29%)
- Fri, Dec. 12: $84.43 (-5.59%) [3]
The week’s intraday low was $83.89 on Friday, while the week’s high print was $92.85 (Wednesday). [4]
Why Marvell stock fell this week: hyperscaler “customer risk” headlines returned
1) Microsoft-Broadcom chatter sparked fears around Marvell’s custom silicon pipeline
The week’s first major shock came after reports suggesting Microsoft may be engaging Broadcom on future custom chip work—raising the market’s fear that Marvell could lose or see reduced scope in a hyperscaler relationship investors have been valuing highly. [5]
That report triggered sharp selling and quickly shifted the narrative from “AI infrastructure winner” to “AI concentration risk.”
Importantly, not everyone agreed with the most bearish interpretation. In the same news flow, JPMorgan reiterated an overweight stance, characterizing the concern as “noise” and suggesting Microsoft could be diversifying suppliers rather than fully replacing Marvell. [6]
2) Amazon Trainium rumors and a key downgrade amplified the damage
Separately, investor focus turned back to Amazon-related custom silicon exposure. A prominent catalyst was Benchmark’s downgrade (Buy → Hold), tied to the analyst’s view that Marvell may have lost AWS Trainium 3/4 work to a competitor—an assertion that immediately challenged the bullish “next-generation hyperscaler wins” narrative. [7]
Even though these claims remain contested in the broader analyst community, the market reaction underscored how much MRVL’s valuation is currently linked to expectations for custom AI silicon and data-center connectivity growth.
Friday’s selloff: semiconductors sank on broader AI “margin” anxiety
By Friday, MRVL’s decline looked less like a single-stock story and more like sector de-risking.
Reuters reported that Broadcom’s outlook intensified concerns around the sustainability and profitability of the AI buildout, contributing to a broader pullback in major tech indices and semiconductor names. [8]
In that environment, Marvell’s stock finished the day down about 5.6%, matching the scale of the move seen across several chip-related peers. [9]
The “other side” of the story: Marvell’s recent fundamentals and product momentum
Despite the drawdown, Marvell has not been silent in recent days. In fact, the company has released a steady stream of news that—under different market conditions—could have supported the stock.
Record Q3 results and upbeat Q4 outlook
In its Q3 fiscal 2026 update (released Dec. 2), Marvell reported:
- Q3 net revenue:$2.075 billion (record), up 37% year-on-year
- Q4 revenue outlook:$2.200 billion ± 5%
- Non-GAAP diluted EPS outlook (Q4):$0.79 ± $0.05
- Commentary pointing to robust data-center demand and a forecast that full-year revenue growth will exceed 40% [10]
The same release also noted that Marvell’s Q3 results included impacts from the earlier sale of its automotive ethernet business (sold to Infineon for $2.5B in cash), which influenced comparisons across periods. [11]
Celestial AI acquisition: a long-dated but high-upside AI interconnect bet
Marvell’s biggest strategic swing lately is its planned acquisition of Celestial AI, aimed at strengthening “scale-up” connectivity for next-gen AI data centers.
Key terms disclosed by Marvell include:
- ~$3.25 billion upfront consideration (mix of $1.0B cash + ~27.2M MRVL shares)
- Additional contingent consideration (earnout) payable in shares if revenue milestones are achieved
- Expected close in Q1 calendar 2026, subject to customary conditions and approvals
- Marvell’s expectation that Celestial AI will begin making meaningful revenue contributions in 2H fiscal 2028, reaching an annualized $500M run rate by fiscal Q4 2028 and potentially $1B run rate by fiscal Q4 2029 [12]
Reuters framed the deal as a meaningful AI infrastructure move and highlighted that it helped drive a strong share reaction earlier in the month. [13]
Amazon warrant: a notable commercial signal linked to photonic fabric purchases
A related SEC filing revealed that, in connection with the Celestial AI transaction, Marvell issued Amazon a warrant for up to 1,045,171 shares.
Notable details include:
- Shares vest based on Amazon’s purchases of photonic fabric products through Dec. 31, 2030
- Warrant exercisable (subject to conditions) until Dec. 2, 2031
- Exercise price:$87.0029 per share [14]
For investors, this is an important nuance: even as the market debates potential losses in some hyperscaler sockets, this filing points to structured incentives tied to future purchases for emerging photonic interconnect products.
“Golden Cable” AEC initiative: pushing the near-range interconnect ecosystem
On Dec. 9, Marvell announced its Golden Cable initiative, designed to speed up deployment of active electrical cables (AECs) used in short-reach data-center connections, especially as AI clusters scale.
The company described the program as delivering software, validated reference designs, and support to help partners meet hyperscaler requirements—and positioned AECs as a critical “cost and power” lever as rack density rises. [15]
Marvell also cited an industry projection that the AEC market could grow from $644M in 2025 to $1.4B by 2029, driven by 1.6T networking and AI cluster expansion. [16]
PCIe retimers adoption: Alaska P PCIe 6 named in partner deployments
Also on Dec. 9, Marvell announced industry adoption of its Alaska P PCIe 6 retimers, highlighting use cases across GPU/XPU platforms and cable ecosystems (AEC/AOC), and emphasizing the role of retimers in scaling connectivity inside advanced AI systems. [17]
Dividend update: Marvell declares $0.06 quarterly payment
On Dec. 12, 2025, Marvell declared a quarterly dividend of $0.06 per share, payable Jan. 29, 2026 to shareholders of record as of Jan. 9, 2026. [18]
This is not the core driver of MRVL’s valuation today, but it reinforces the company’s message of balancing growth investment with shareholder returns.
Wall Street forecasts for MRVL: bullish targets, but a wider debate on “who owns the hyperscaler socket”
Even after this week’s drop, broader analyst consensus still leans constructive—though dispersion is meaningful.
According to MarketBeat’s aggregation:
- Consensus rating: Moderate Buy
- Analyst count: 38
- Average 12-month price target: $111.56
- Range of targets: $66 (low) to $156 (high) [19]
Several firms have also reiterated or raised targets after Marvell’s earnings and data-center commentary; for example, Investing.com reported Needham raised its price target to $120 while keeping a Buy rating (post Q3 results and Celestial AI announcement). [20]
At the same time, this week demonstrated that the market will likely continue discounting MRVL whenever uncertainty spikes around:
- Microsoft custom silicon continuity
- AWS Trainium road map participation
- Competitive encroachment from Broadcom and others in custom AI silicon and connectivity [21]
Technical and trading view: where traders may focus next week
From a pure “price action” perspective, MRVL finished the week near its weekly lows ($83.89 intraday Friday; $84.43 close). [22]
TipRanks’ technical page (updated midday Friday) published classic pivot levels that many short-term traders watch:
- Potential support band: ~$83.75 (S3) up through the mid/high $80s
- Potential resistance area: ~$91–$95 (R1–R3 region) [23]
One caution: those technical readings were captured before the day’s full late move was complete, so next week’s levels may shift as fresh data feeds into indicators.
Week-ahead outlook: 6 catalysts likely to drive MRVL next week
1) Any new clarity on Microsoft’s custom chip strategy
If the market receives additional credible reporting—or any official commentary—on whether Microsoft is simply diversifying suppliers versus materially reallocating program scope, MRVL could see sharp swings either way. [24]
2) The AWS Trainium narrative: confirmation vs. continued rumor
The question of whether Marvell retains meaningful participation in Trainium 3/4 remains a central investor debate. Watch for:
- follow-on analyst notes,
- supply chain chatter,
- or more definitive reporting that either validates or refutes the “lost socket” claims. [25]
3) Sector risk appetite after the Broadcom-led scare
If “AI margins” stays the dominant tape narrative, semiconductor stocks can remain under pressure regardless of company-specific execution. [26]
4) Post-Fed positioning and rate sensitivity
The Federal Reserve’s Dec. 9–10 meeting is now in the rearview, and markets are digesting both the policy decision and subsequent commentary from officials. That matters because high-growth semiconductors often trade as a function of both earnings expectations and discount rates. [27]
5) Deal scrutiny: Celestial AI + Amazon warrant structure
Investors will keep modeling (and debating) whether the Celestial AI acquisition meaningfully strengthens Marvell’s long-term AI interconnect positioning—and what the Amazon warrant implies for commercial adoption over time. [28]
6) “Good news vs. great news” problem around product releases
Marvell is shipping a steady cadence of product and ecosystem announcements (AEC initiative, PCIe retimers adoption), but the market may demand clear revenue linkage—especially during a period when fears around hyperscaler design wins dominate. [29]
Bottom line for MRVL stock heading into next week
Marvell’s week was a reminder that AI infrastructure is not just a growth story—it’s a narrative story, where perception about who “owns” the hyperscaler socket can overwhelm fundamentals in the short run.
The company has real momentum on paper—record revenue, strong guidance, a major AI interconnect acquisition, and an expanding ecosystem push in connectivity. [30]
But MRVL’s near-term direction may hinge less on what Marvell announced and more on what the market concludes about Microsoft and Amazon roadmap positioning—plus broader sentiment about AI hardware returns and margins.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investors.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.investors.com, 6. www.investors.com, 7. www.barrons.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.marketwatch.com, 10. investor.marvell.com, 11. investor.marvell.com, 12. investor.marvell.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.sec.gov, 15. www.marvell.com, 16. www.marvell.com, 17. investor.marvell.com, 18. investor.marvell.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. www.investing.com, 21. www.investors.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.tipranks.com, 24. www.investors.com, 25. www.barrons.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.federalreserve.gov, 28. investor.marvell.com, 29. www.marvell.com, 30. investor.marvell.com
