Updated: Sunday, 14 December 2025 (AEST context). With the ASX closed over the weekend, Santos Limited shares were last priced off Friday’s close (12 December 2025).
Santos Limited (ASX:STO) ended the week with its share price sitting around A$6.26, as investors weighed a familiar mix of factors: softer crude oil and LNG pricing, Australia’s intensifying east coast gas policy debate, and the ever-important execution narrative around Santos’ near-term growth projects—especially Barossa. [1]
Below is what moved Santos stock in the past few days, what analysts are forecasting now, and what the market will likely be watching as trading resumes in the week ahead.
Santos share price today (14.12.2025): where the stock sits after this week’s trade
Santos was indicated around A$6.26 on the last available ASX pricing, with the stock’s 52-week range cited around A$5.20 to A$8.06 by some market data providers. [2]
The late-week tape also shows a clear short-term drift lower: data points around A$6.47 (Dec 9) down to A$6.26 (Dec 12) imply roughly a ~3% slide across four sessions. [3]
That’s not a “Santos-specific collapse” story so much as a classic energy-stock cocktail: commodity prices easing, policy headlines heating up, and investors staying cautious while waiting for confirmation of the next operational milestone.
What’s in the news for Santos right now (last few days)
1) Santos’ Bedout Basin drilling plan moves into public consultation
One of the clearest Santos-specific headlines this week is regulatory process-driven: NOPSEMA opened public comment (9 Dec 2025) on Santos’ Bedout Multi-Well Exploration and Appraisal Drilling environment plan.
Key details as stated in the consultation summary:
- Santos proposes drilling up to seven exploration and/or appraisal wells
- Proposed timing: Q3 2026 to Q3 2031
- A five-year EP validity is sought to allow drilling across multiple operational areas and campaigns
- Public consultation opened 9 Dec 2025 and closes 8 Jan 2026 [4]
Industry coverage quickly amplified the same story, framing it as Santos “going large” offshore and pointing to NOPSEMA’s role and the multi-well scope. [5]
Why it matters for the stock: Bedout is not a next-quarter earnings lever—it’s longer-dated exploration optionality. But it does shape the market’s view of Santos’ medium-term growth pipeline and capital allocation priorities (especially at a time when investors are increasingly picky about capex discipline).
2) Australia’s east coast gas policy debate is back in the market’s crosshairs
The other major theme swirling around Santos—again—is Canberra’s east coast gas market reform / reservation-style policy discussion.
In recent days, Australian reporting has described “down-to-the-wire” negotiations around a scheme that would push exporters to set aside gas for domestic use, amid concerns about whether it will reduce prices as intended. [6]
This is not just abstract politics for Santos. Santos is a major LNG participant on the east coast (including GLNG exposure), so any mechanism that tightens domestic supply obligations or changes export economics can land directly in valuation models, risk premia, and sentiment.
Why it matters for the stock: Policy risk can compress multiples even when operational performance is strong—because it’s hard to hedge, hard to model, and headline-driven.
3) CEO messaging: gas, regulatory uncertainty, and a 2026 investment horizon
In a recent interview-style report, Santos’ CEO emphasised gas as a “critical enabler” of the energy transition, while also pointing to regulatory complexity as a headwind for investment decisions. The report also referenced Barossa commissioning cost pressures and flagged future investment focus areas (including Narrabri and Beetaloo) in 2026. [7]
Why it matters for the stock: When management leans heavily into policy and regulatory messaging, it often reflects what they believe is the most material swing factor the market is underpricing—or mispricing.
The macro backdrop this week: oil down, LNG softer, sentiment cautious
Energy equities rarely trade in isolation, and this week’s commodity tape leaned against the sector.
- Oil: Reuters reported Brent around $61–$62/bbl late week and noted crude was on track for a weekly decline (contracts down ~3% on the week in that report’s framing). [8]
- Asian LNG pricing proxies: The Japan/Korea Marker (Platts) futures data showed prices around $10.70/MMBtu on Dec 12, drifting down versus early December levels. [9]
- US gas context (relevant for global LNG spreads and sentiment): The US EIA’s weekly update for week ending Dec 10 noted a fall in the Henry Hub spot price (a key input into many LNG margin conversations globally). [10]
Why it matters for Santos: Lower oil and softer LNG benchmarks can pressure near-term revenue expectations and reduce “risk appetite” for project-execution stories—especially if investors suspect the market is moving toward oversupply narratives.
Barossa remains the near-term swing factor investors care about most
Even when the daily headlines are about policy or exploration, Santos’ most important near-term narrative has remained consistent: deliver the next major operational milestone on Barossa / Darwin LNG.
Recent reporting and prior company updates have repeatedly pointed to Barossa being targeted for first LNG cargo in Q4 2025, even after earlier commissioning disruptions (including safety-system software issues and downtime referenced in past reports). [11]
There has also been press coverage in recent weeks describing pressure on Santos to meet the year-end window and investor sensitivity to any further delays—especially given Barossa’s central role in the company’s growth story. [12]
Market logic in plain English:
If the market gets high-confidence signals that Barossa is ramping reliably and the “first cargo” moment is real, Santos can re-rate quickly because execution risk comes out of the discount rate. If uncertainty rises (technical issues, timing slippage, cost creep), the stock can stay range-bound even with supportive analyst targets.
Analyst forecasts and price targets: where the consensus sits now
Across widely cited consensus aggregators, Santos’ analyst targets generally cluster above the current ~A$6.26 level, implying a meaningful upside case on paper:
- One consensus snapshot (14 analysts) put the average 12‑month target around A$7.53, with a high estimate near A$10.27 and a low around A$5.95, and a “Buy”-leaning mix of recommendations. [13]
- Other consensus/forecast pages broadly align with a ~A$7.3–A$7.6 “central” target-zone. [14]
Broker views can still diverge sharply depending on how they handicap policy risk and capex visibility:
- Morgans (example broker note in the public domain): “Hold” with a A$6.80 target (dated Nov 19, 2025 in the cited summary), with commentary referencing softer Brent expectations and rising domestic gas policy risk as part of the near-term caution. [15]
- Jarden (example): “Underweight” with a A$6.10 target in the same research-summary page, explicitly tying caution to operational performance versus consensus and assumptions about LNG cargo timing/volumes. [16]
- JPMorgan: resumed coverage earlier with an Overweight and a A$7.90 target (December 2026), calling Santos a top pick in Australian Oil & Gas (per the cited report summary). [17]
- Goldman Sachs: reinstated a Buy rating after takeover-related volatility, highlighting discount-to-valuation metrics and a shareholder return framework tied to free cash flow (per the cited report summary). [18]
How to interpret this: The market isn’t “ignoring” upside targets—it’s charging Santos a premium for uncertainty. The two biggest uncertainty buckets right now are (1) policy and (2) project delivery.
Week ahead for Santos stock: what matters most (15–19 Dec 2025)
1) Any concrete move on the east coast gas reservation / reform package
Reporting suggests the government is working toward a policy reveal on a near-term timeline (Christmas was referenced), and markets typically react most to specifics: who is covered, what exemptions exist, and what enforcement looks like. [19]
2) Barossa/Darwin LNG execution signals
Investors will be hypersensitive to any credible confirmation (or doubt) around the Q4 first-cargo ambition. Prior disruptions have made “trust the schedule” a higher bar, so even small operational updates can move the stock.
3) Commodity direction and risk appetite
A modest rebound in oil/LNG often lifts the whole sector; continued weakness can keep STO pinned—even if company-specific fundamentals look intact. This week’s oil decline is the kind of background pressure that can linger into Monday’s open. [20]
The setup: why Santos is a classic “catalyst stock” right now
Santos shares are sitting in a zone where upside targets exist across analyst models, but the market is waiting for clarity:
- Clarity on regulation (domestic gas obligations and export economics), and
- Clarity on execution (Barossa ramp-up, reliability, and cash flow translation).
That’s why the coming week could be less about broad “energy sector vibes” and more about whether new information reduces uncertainty—or adds to it.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. finance.yahoo.com, 4. consultation.nopsema.gov.au, 5. www.offshore-energy.biz, 6. www.abc.net.au, 7. www.theaustralian.com.au, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. www.eia.gov, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.theaustralian.com.au, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.tradingview.com, 15. fnarena.com, 16. fnarena.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.abc.net.au, 20. www.reuters.com
