As of late morning on Monday, December 15, 2025 (latest available quote around 10:43–10:45 a.m. ET, just ahead of 11 a.m.), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was slightly lower, trading near 48,406, down about 52 points (-0.11%) after an early lift at the open. [1]
That “up-then-down” pattern has been the story of the morning: Wall Street opened higher as investors tried to stabilize after last week’s tech-led wobble, but sentiment has quickly shifted into wait-and-see mode ahead of a data-packed week that could reshape expectations for interest-rate cuts going into 2026. [2]
Dow Jones today: What’s happening right now
Early on, major indexes were modestly positive as dip-buying returned to large-cap names, with Reuters reporting the Dow up about 0.2% in early trading as investors positioned for a busy macro calendar. [3]
By mid-morning, however, the Dow drifted back into the red, with markets digesting three cross-currents at once:
- The “AI trade” is still wobbling, keeping pressure on the broader risk mood and raising fresh questions about whether the typical year-end “Santa rally” can stick. [4]
- Rates remain the key variable, especially long-term yields and how investors interpret the Federal Reserve’s next steps after last week’s cut. [5]
- This week’s delayed economic data (especially jobs and inflation) could reset the market’s playbook for early 2026. [6]
Why the Dow is moving: Jobs report and inflation are back in the driver’s seat
The biggest reason the Dow is trading nervously isn’t earnings or a single company headline—it’s the return of major U.S. macro releases after disruption from the government shutdown.
Reuters reports investors are bracing for delayed nonfarm payroll figures for October and November, alongside other high-impact releases (inflation data, business activity, jobless claims) that could influence the next leg for rates. [7]
Investopedia also flagged tomorrow’s employment data as a major focus, and pointed to additional reads on consumer demand through items like retail sales and business inventories. [8]
Meanwhile, Business Insider’s weekly preview highlighted that jobs and inflation will dominate the narrative, with markets watching for signals on whether rate cuts continue into 2026—and how quickly. [9]
The market’s “bad is good” dilemma
One of the defining late-cycle dynamics is back: slower data can sometimes be bullish for stocks if it convinces investors that the Fed will cut rates more aggressively. Business Insider cited strategists describing a “bad is good” regime in which moderate labor weakness can lift equities via lower-rate expectations. [10]
But there’s a limit: data that looks too weak can revive recession fears, while data that looks too strong can push yields higher and tighten financial conditions—both of which can rattle equity valuations.
The Fed backdrop: A recent rate cut, “neutral” talk, and 2026 uncertainty
Markets are still digesting the Fed’s latest pivot point.
New York Fed President John Williams said on December 15 that the Fed’s recent quarter-point cut leaves policy “well positioned” heading into 2026 and that the Fed has moved policy toward neutral. He also said he expects inflation to moderate, with a path toward 2.5% next year and 2% in 2027, while describing the labor market as “clearly cooling” in a gradual way. [11]
At the same time, Interactive Brokers’ weekly macro note emphasized the December cut to a 3.50%–3.75% target range, highlighted dissenting votes, and suggested the Fed may be less active in 2026 than markets assume—especially with risks like tariffs, valuation pressure, and “AI bubble” concerns still in play. [12]
Why this matters for the Dow specifically
The Dow is often more sensitive to “real economy” and rate expectations than tech-heavy indexes. When investors rotate out of high-multiple growth stocks and into value, dividends, or cyclicals, the Dow can look sturdier than the Nasdaq—even if the broader market feels unsettled.
AI jitters and year-end positioning: The backdrop behind today’s churn
The Dow’s choppiness today is also happening against a bigger narrative: late-2025 anxiety about AI expectations.
Reuters noted that Wall Street remains on edge after gloomy signals from key AI-linked names and highlighted broader concerns that AI jitters and fiscal worries could disrupt the last full trading week of the year. [13]
Investopedia similarly reported that AI bubble fears weighed on tech shares late last week and continued to influence index leadership to begin the week. [14]
Reuters also flagged a possible bright spot for the AI ecosystem: Nvidia regained some ground after Reuters sources said it is evaluating adding production capacity for H200 AI chips due to demand exceeding current output levels. [15]
The takeaway for Dow watchers: even though the DJIA isn’t as tech-dominant as the Nasdaq, the market’s AI narrative still impacts risk appetite, and risk appetite still impacts the Dow.
Dow movers today: Goldman Sachs and Amgen help, while other components pull the other way
Because the Dow is price-weighted, a handful of higher-priced stocks can disproportionately move the index—sometimes even when the broader tape is mixed.
A MarketWatch update said Goldman Sachs and Amgen were major drivers of the Dow’s intraday lift, together accounting for a meaningful share of the index’s upside during the morning. [16]
At the same time, component performance has been mixed. Markets Insider’s Dow page showed notable divergences among big-name constituents in mid-morning trading—some green, some firmly red—matching the “record-high neighborhood, but not a clean breakout” feel of the session. [17]
What happened last Friday matters: The market is still recovering from a tech-driven pullback
To understand why investors are so sensitive to this week’s data, it helps to remember where the market came from:
On Friday, December 12, U.S. stocks pulled back from recent highs as AI-linked tech weakened. The Dow fell about 0.5% to 48,458.05, while the S&P 500 dropped about 1.1% and the Nasdaq fell about 1.7%, according to an Associated Press market recap. [18]
That Friday close is also visible in historical price data for the Dow. [19]
This context helps explain why Monday’s trading has felt like a balancing act: investors are trying to decide whether Friday was a healthy reset—or the beginning of a deeper de-risking.
Rates, gold, oil, and bitcoin: The cross-asset signals investors are tracking alongside the Dow
Even if you only trade the Dow, you can’t ignore the cross-asset tape right now.
Investopedia reported that gold futures rose toward record territory, with prices around $4,345/oz and an intraday push toward the prior all-time high near $4,398 (set Oct. 20)—a sign that some investors are still buying hedges while equities churn. [20]
The same update noted the 10-year Treasury yield easing to around 4.16% from about 4.19% at Friday’s close—important because yields influence borrowing costs, valuation math, and sector leadership. [21]
Oil was softer as well, with Investopedia citing WTI around $56.85—a move that can cool inflation expectations but also pressures energy-linked earnings. [22]
And crypto remains volatile: Investopedia put bitcoin near $87,900 after struggling to hold shows of strength around $90,000—another “risk appetite” barometer for traders. [23]
Wall Street forecasts: Citi’s 2026 target and what it suggests about the next phase of the bull market
Even as markets fixate on this week’s data, strategists are already framing the bigger story: how far the bull market can run in 2026—and whether AI remains the primary engine.
Citigroup set a 2026 year-end target of 7,700 for the S&P 500, implying a low-double-digit upside from the index’s recent close, and projected 2026 year-end EPS of $320. Citi expects AI to remain a key theme but suggested leadership could evolve from “AI enablers” to “AI adopters,” while warning that high starting valuations raise the pressure on fundamentals. [24]
For Dow investors, that matters in two ways:
- If leadership broadens from mega-cap tech into adopters, industrials, healthcare, financials, and consumer names could attract fresh flows—often a tailwind for Dow-style exposure.
- If high valuations and rates volatility persist, the market may keep rewarding cash flow, balance sheets, and dividends—also typically “Dow-friendly.”
The political subplot: Markets watch who could lead the Fed next
One underappreciated factor creeping into market psychology is the politics around the Fed’s future leadership.
Reuters’ Morning News callout noted that President Donald Trump told the Wall Street Journal he had narrowed his search for the next Fed chair to Kevin Warsh or Kevin Hassett, a development traders are digesting for what it could imply about the future reaction function of monetary policy. [25]
This isn’t a day-trading input on its own, but in a market already highly sensitive to rates, any credible signal about the Fed’s future direction can show up quickly in yields, banks, and index leadership.
What to watch next: A fast, high-stakes week for the Dow Jones
Here’s the practical checklist for Dow traders and long-term investors over the next few sessions:
1) The delayed jobs report(s)
Reuters highlighted the release of delayed payroll figures as a central event risk this week. [26]
Business Insider also framed the jobs report as the key market narrative driver, tied directly to rate-cut expectations. [27]
2) Inflation data and how it changes the “cuts vs. caution” balance
Business Insider pointed to fresh inflation data as another dominant catalyst for markets this week. [28]
3) Fed speakers (and whether they validate the market’s pricing)
Business Insider highlighted that a lineup of Fed speakers could influence expectations for 2026 policy. [29]
Separately, Williams’ comments today already gave markets a new anchor point on how at least one key official is thinking about inflation, tariffs, and the labor market. [30]
4) Year-end flows and “Santa rally” positioning
Reuters’ market commentary warned that AI jitters and fiscal concerns are creating a bumpier runway into year-end than many investors expected. [31]
Outlook: Three near-term scenarios for the Dow into year-end
No one data print decides a market, but in December—when liquidity thins and positioning matters—surprises can have oversized impact. Here are the most realistic near-term paths:
Scenario A: Jobs cool, inflation behaves
Yields likely drift lower, easing pressure on valuations and encouraging a broader “risk-on” tone. That environment often supports a steadier climb in the Dow, especially if financials and healthcare participate.
Scenario B: Jobs hot, inflation sticky
Long-term yields could jump again, reigniting the valuation debate and pushing markets into another rotation—potentially away from rate-sensitive areas and into defensives. The Dow may hold up relatively better than the Nasdaq, but could still struggle to advance.
Scenario C: Mixed data, mixed tape
Expect more of what we’ve seen this morning: rallies that fade, dips that get bought, and leadership that changes by the hour—especially with investors trying to lock in year-end performance.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
References
1. markets.businessinsider.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.investopedia.com, 9. www.businessinsider.com, 10. www.businessinsider.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.interactivebrokers.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.investopedia.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.marketwatch.com, 17. markets.businessinsider.com, 18. apnews.com, 19. finance.yahoo.com, 20. www.investopedia.com, 21. www.investopedia.com, 22. www.investopedia.com, 23. www.investopedia.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.businessinsider.com, 28. www.businessinsider.com, 29. www.businessinsider.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com
