TORONTO (Dec. 15, 2025) — Canada’s stock market ended Monday on a softer note after a session that revolved around inflation data, sliding crude prices, and another strong day for precious metals.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index unofficially closed down 43.95 points, or 0.14%, at 31,483.44 in Toronto trading, finishing just a hair below the record-close neighborhood the benchmark has hovered around in recent sessions. 1
TSX market close: A modest dip, but still near record territory
While the day’s decline was small in percentage terms, it was notable because it came as investors digested a mixed set of domestic signals: inflation held steady but cooled on key core measures, the Canadian dollar steadied near a multi-month high, and oil prices retreated again—pressuring energy-heavy parts of the TSX.
The late-day close also left the TSX just below the record close of 31,490.85 set on Dec. 10, underscoring how tight the index’s trading range has become heading into the second half of December. 2
What moved Canadian stocks today
1) Canada inflation: Headline steady at 2.2%, but core measures eased
Canada’s annual inflation rate held at 2.2% in November, matching October and coming in slightly under expectations of 2.3%, according to Statistics Canada. 3
Beneath the headline, investors found both comfort and caution:
- Core CPI-median and CPI-trim slowed to 2.8%, down from 3.0%—an important marker because both gauges are closely watched by the Bank of Canada. 3
- Food inflation accelerated: food prices were up 4.2% year-over-year, the fastest pace since December 2023, with economists pointing to weather impacts and U.S. import tariffs as key factors. 3
Why it mattered for the TSX: Cooling core readings can support equities by reducing the odds of further tightening. But sticky food inflation keeps “mission accomplished” narratives in check—particularly as households remain sensitive to grocery costs.
2) Bank of Canada expectations: Rate-hike pricing backed off
Following the inflation report, market pricing reflected a more cautious policy outlook. Investors were pricing roughly 23 basis points of tightening over the next year, down from 35 basis points before the Bank of Canada’s decision last week to hold its benchmark rate at 2.25%. 4
That shift is meaningful for Canada’s market leaders—especially banks, insurers, and other rate-sensitive financials—because it influences expectations around net interest margins, credit conditions, and consumer demand.
3) Oil prices fell again, weighing on energy-linked shares
Oil was a clear headwind into the close. U.S. crude settled down 1.08% at $56.82 a barrel, with traders balancing supply disruptions tied to U.S.-Venezuelan tensions against broader oversupply worries and Russia–Ukraine peace-talk headlines. 5
For the TSX—where energy remains a major weight—sliding crude prices often translate into immediate pressure on large producers and oilfield service names, even when the broader market is stable.
4) Gold and silver stayed strong, supporting miners
If oil dragged, precious metals helped cushion the downside.
Gold climbed to a more-than-seven-week high, with spot gold cited around $4,344 per ounce in Monday trading, supported by a softer U.S. dollar and lower yields. Silver remained elevated as well, trading around $63 per ounce after recently hitting record territory. 6
That matters for Bay Street because Canada’s market includes a deep bench of globally significant gold and silver miners, streamers, and royalty firms. When bullion prices rise, those groups often become a defensive “bid” inside the TSX—especially on risk-off days.
Canadian dollar and bonds: The loonie steadied near a three-month high
Currency markets were also part of the day’s story.
The Canadian dollar traded near unchanged around 1.3775 per U.S. dollar (about 72.60 U.S. cents), after touching an intraday level near its strongest since mid-September. 4
Meanwhile, Canadian yields drifted lower, with the 10-year government bond yield down about 3 basis points to 3.413%. 4
Why it matters for investors: A steadier loonie can reduce currency volatility for international investors in Canadian equities, while softer yields can support valuation-sensitive sectors—though the effect can be muted when commodity swings dominate the tape.
Today’s Canada market headlines: Mining deals took center stage
Beyond macro data, two major mining transactions shaped the day’s “corporate Canada” narrative—both reinforcing the market’s 2025 theme: strategic dealmaking around metals tied to electrification and commodities demand.
Fortescue moves for Alta Copper in a C$139 million deal
Australia’s Fortescue said it would acquire the remaining stake in Toronto-listed Alta Copper, valuing the company at C$139 million and offering C$1.40 per share. Alta’s key asset is the Cañariaco copper project in northern Peru. 7
Copper has been at the center of the global “critical metals” narrative, and the bid highlights the continued push by major miners to secure long-duration copper resources.
China’s CMOC agrees to buy Equinox Gold’s Brazil operations for $1.015 billion
Equinox Gold announced it agreed to sell its Brazil operations—including the Aurizona Mine, RDM Mine, and the Bahia Complex—to a CMOC subsidiary for total consideration of $1.015 billion (including $900 million cash plus contingent consideration). 8
For Equinox, the sale was framed as a balance-sheet and strategy reset, aiming to refocus toward North American growth and reduce debt. 8
Market takeaway: When deal flow clusters in mining names, it can lift sentiment across the materials complex—even on days when the overall index drifts.
More key Canada economic signals released today
Canada also received fresh data points that help shape the economic outlook heading into year-end:
- Housing starts rose 9.4% in November to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 254,058 units, exceeding expectations, according to CMHC. 9
- Factory sales fell 1.0% in October, led by weakness in chemicals and wood products; excluding autos, sales fell 1.1%. 10
These releases help explain why markets are having a tougher time picking a single “rates narrative”: parts of the economy are proving resilient (housing starts), while other areas are cooling (manufacturing output/sales).
Forecasts and analysis: What strategists are watching next
Inflation trend: “Mixed details” could keep the BoC cautious
RBC Economics characterized the inflation report as steady but nuanced, highlighting easing shelter inflation and softer core measures—data that can support the view that rate policy may stay on hold longer if core inflation continues trending lower. 11
The bigger question for markets is whether food inflation proves persistent enough to complicate the path ahead—especially as supply shocks and tariff effects can behave differently from demand-driven inflation.
Year-end playbook: Can the TSX keep outperforming into the “Santa Claus rally” window?
RBC Direct Investing noted that 2025 has been a strong year for Canadian equities and flagged the possibility that a traditional late-December “Santa Claus rally” could push the market higher into year-end—particularly if sentiment stabilizes and commodities cooperate. 12
Still, the TSX’s short-term performance has become increasingly dependent on a narrow set of daily drivers: oil direction, precious-metals momentum, and interest-rate expectations.
What to watch this week: U.S. data risk, central banks, and commodities
Even though today’s move was modest, volatility risk is rising because the next several sessions are packed with catalysts that can spill into Canadian equities:
- Delayed U.S. employment and inflation reports are due this week, which investors are using to recalibrate expectations for the U.S. interest-rate path. 13
- Global central bank decisions (including in Europe and Japan) are also in focus, adding potential pressure to bond yields and currency markets. 5
- On commodities, traders remain locked on whether crude can stabilize after sliding to the mid-$50s, and whether gold and silver can hold record-adjacent levels. 5
For TSX investors, the near-term setup is clear: if energy continues to fade while precious metals remain strong, leadership inside the index could keep rotating toward miners and defensives—especially with policy and macro uncertainty still dominating the narrative.
Bottom line after the bell
Canada’s stock market ended slightly lower on Monday, closing at 31,483.44, as falling oil prices weighed on energy-heavy parts of the TSX. TradingView+1 At the same time, cooler core inflation measures and another powerful day for gold and silver helped prevent a deeper pullback. 3
With the benchmark still hovering close to record levels and a data-heavy week ahead, Bay Street’s next direction may come down to a familiar trio: rates expectations, commodities, and risk sentiment from the U.S. macro calendar. 13
