Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX:NST) is back in focus on 16 December 2025 as investors weigh a mix of near-term share price volatility against an expanding long-life asset base, major growth capex at Kalgoorlie, and fresh operational and infrastructure developments across the supply chain.
As of 16 December 2025, Northern Star shares were indicated around A$26.07, down about 2.6% on the session, after trading between roughly A$25.93 and A$26.90 (delayed pricing). [1]
That dip comes after a strong year for gold equities overall, with market coverage continuing to highlight precious metals strength as a key macro tailwind for Australian gold producers. [2]
Northern Star share price today: what the market is showing on 16 December 2025
The day’s move in Northern Star is not occurring in isolation: a Reuters market wrap on Tuesday referenced mixed sentiment across Australian equities, with Northern Star modestly lower in early trade as investors positioned around macro catalysts. [3]
From a pure “tape-read” standpoint, the more notable context is where NST sits within its broader trading range:
- 52-week range: roughly A$15.06 to A$27.985 (depending on data vendor) [4]
- Market cap: roughly A$37B (indicative, vendor-estimated) [5]
For Discover/News readers tracking momentum: NST has been one of the most-followed large-cap gold names on the ASX, so even a routine pullback tends to spark renewed “what changed?” attention—especially when it coincides with fresh project and supplier headlines.
The news drivers investors are watching right now
1) Sandvik wins a major underground equipment order linked to Northern Star
A key near-term headline around Northern Star this week is a new underground equipment order awarded to Sandvik, covering trucks and intelligent loaders for Northern Star’s Western Australian operations. Sandvik said the order was booked in Q4 2025, with deliveries expected to start in Q1 2026 and continue through 2026. [6]
Multiple market summaries pegged the order at around SEK 260 million, reinforcing that this is not just routine maintenance spend, but part of a broader modernization cycle aimed at productivity and operating discipline in underground mining. [7]
Why it matters for ASX:NST stock:
While this is not a Northern Star earnings release, investors often treat supplier contracts as a “real economy” signal of capex sequencing, equipment renewal, and operational confidence—especially when a miner is simultaneously executing large expansion projects.
2) Power and decarbonisation: a 25-year renewable PPA for KCGM (plus thermal backup)
Northern Star’s Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines (KCGM)—one of the company’s flagship production hubs—remains at the center of long-duration investment and “cost of power” discussion in the gold sector.
In early December, Zenith Energy announced a 25-year power purchase agreement (PPA) underpinning a large hybrid renewable build intended to supply KCGM. The disclosed system scale includes 256MW wind, 138MW solar, and a 138MW/300MWh battery (BESS). [8]
Zenith also described a thermal generation component via a joint venture structure, positioned as reliability support alongside the renewables buildout. [9]
Why it matters for NST:
For gold producers, energy is not a side issue—it’s a core input cost and a key operational risk variable. Long-dated power structures can influence:
- future operating cost stability,
- reliability and downtime risk at processing plants,
- and the credibility of emissions-reduction pathways (increasingly relevant to large institutional investors).
3) Wärtsilä contract details add depth to the KCGM “reliability + renewables” story
In another power-related development, Wärtsilä disclosed it will supply equipment for a new 120MW engine power plant in Kalgoorlie, contracted by Zenith, to support the power supply expansion for KCGM (owned by Northern Star). Wärtsilä said the plant is expected to begin producing power around mid‑2027 (subject to approvals) and highlighted grid-balancing capabilities designed to support renewable integration. [10]
Why it matters:
This strengthens the market narrative that KCGM’s energy system is being engineered as an integrated package (renewables + storage + firming), rather than a simple “add solar” headline—often a crucial distinction when investors assess execution risk on large operational hubs.
4) Credit signal: Fitch affirms Northern Star at BBB- with a Stable Outlook
On the credit side, Fitch affirmed Northern Star’s rating at BBB- with a Stable Outlook, citing a strong financial profile supported by liquidity and low leverage (per Fitch commentary). [11]
Why it matters for the stock:
Northern Star is running multiple capital-intensive programs (Kalgoorlie expansion work, ongoing mine development, and the Hemi development path). When credit agencies lean stable—rather than warning about balance sheet pressure—equity investors often treat it as a supportive backdrop for “funding the plan” without excessive dilution risk (though that risk never disappears).
What Northern Star has guided: FY26 production, costs, and capital intensity
The most investor-relevant baseline remains Northern Star’s FY26 outlook, as set out in the company’s quarterly reporting.
In its September 2025 quarterly activities report (Q1 FY26), Northern Star reported:
- Gold sold:381,055oz in the quarter
- Group AISC:A$2,522/oz
- Cash and bullion:A$1,511 million, and net cash cited at A$616 million (company-defined) [12]
More importantly for forward-looking positioning, the same report reiterated FY26 group guidance of:
- Gold sold:1,700–1,850koz
- AISC:A$2,300–2,700/oz [13]
It also provided a detailed view of growth spending expectations, including separate line items for the KCGM Mill Expansion Project, KCGM Mill Operational Readiness, Hemi Development Project, and ~A$225M exploration. [14]
The quarterly commentary also stated that the KCGM Mill Expansion remains on track for early FY27 commissioning, and referenced ministerial approval supporting higher future throughput and long-term cost efficiency at KCGM. [15]
Investor takeaway:
NST is not being valued like a static gold producer. The market is continuously repricing the stock based on (1) execution confidence at Kalgoorlie, (2) cost control within guided ranges, and (3) the credibility of its multi-year growth pipeline.
Exploration and growth pipeline: Northern Star’s FY26 exploration update
On 5 December 2025, Northern Star released an exploration update outlining FY26 program priorities and early themes across its operating footprint (Western Australia and Alaska) as well as the recently acquired development project.
Key items highlighted include:
- FY26 exploration spend forecast:A$225 million
- Workstreams spanning near-mine growth, regional targets, and integration work for Hemi, with the company noting inclusion of Hemi mineral resources and reserves in a future annual statement targeted for May 2026. [16]
Why this matters for NST stock (beyond the headline budget):
- Exploration at scale can extend mine life and sustain mill throughput assumptions.
- In the current gold cycle, the market tends to reward producers that can add ounces organically—particularly if those ounces help defend margins rather than merely increase volume.
Analyst forecasts for Northern Star (ASX:NST): targets, ratings, and what “consensus” implies
As of mid-December 2025, consensus snapshots from multiple market-data aggregators broadly cluster around a moderate upside case from spot levels, with meaningful dispersion between bullish and bearish targets.
- MarketScreener shows 16 analysts, a mean consensus rating around Outperform, and an average target price in the high A$28s, with a wide high/low range. [17]
- Investing.com’s consensus view similarly reflects coverage from 16 analysts, with an average target near A$28.54 and a stated high/low range reaching roughly the mid‑A$30s on the upside and low‑teens on the downside (vendor-reported). [18]
For a more “what changed this month?” angle, MarketIndex’s broker-moves coverage recently listed Northern Star as retained at Buy at UBS with a A$29.75 price target (as reported in that roundup). [19]
How to read this as a news-driven investor (not as advice):
- The average target suggests analysts generally see NST as fairly valued to modestly undervalued around current prices.
- The range matters: a very wide spread usually signals that the debate is less about “gold is up/down” and more about execution risk on large projects and the durability of margins under different cost scenarios.
The core bull and bear debate around Northern Star on 16 December 2025
What supports the bull case
Operational scale + leverage to gold: Northern Star’s multi-asset portfolio and unhedging/hedge unwind dynamics can increase sensitivity to spot prices when gold is strong. [20]
KCGM as a long-life cornerstone: The company is positioning KCGM for higher throughput and long-term efficiency, with the mill expansion timeline and approvals remaining a key narrative driver. [21]
Energy strategy that targets reliability and emissions: The 25-year renewable PPA package plus firming solutions feeds a “lower carbon intensity + more stable operating risk” story that many large investors now explicitly price into major miners. [22]
Balance sheet signal from credit markets: A stable investment-grade rating helps the market believe Northern Star can fund multi-year programs without destabilizing leverage metrics. [23]
What bears focus on
Cost inflation and guidance sensitivity: Even with strong gold prices, margins can compress quickly if AISC drifts above guidance or if sustaining and growth capex run hotter than expected—particularly across complex hubs like Kalgoorlie. [24]
Execution risk on multiple fronts: KCGM expansion, mill readiness, power infrastructure, and Hemi’s development path represent parallel workstreams—each individually manageable, but collectively capable of creating schedule and capital stack complexity. [25]
Forecast dispersion: The large gap between high and low targets across data aggregators is a reminder that “consensus” is not a single shared conviction. [26]
What’s next: the dates and events that can move ASX:NST
For near-term watchers, Northern Star’s calendar matters because quarterly and half-year results often reset expectations around costs, throughput, and capex timing.
Northern Star’s investor key dates indicate the December 2025 quarterly results are scheduled for Thursday, 22 January 2026, followed by FY26 half-year results on Thursday, 12 February 2026. [27]
Catalysts likely to dominate into late January:
- any update on KCGM mill expansion progress and commissioning confidence, [28]
- evidence that costs are tracking inside AISC guidance, [29]
- and further detail around the power roadmap and how it interacts with production expansion at Kalgoorlie. [30]
Bottom line on Northern Star Resources stock on 16 December 2025
Northern Star Resources enters the back half of FY26 with a clear market identity: a large-cap, growth-investing gold producer whose valuation is increasingly driven by execution at Kalgoorlie (KCGM), disciplined delivery against AISC ranges, and the credibility of its long-duration development pipeline.
Today’s pullback in NST shares sits alongside a steady stream of “real-world” signals—supplier contracts, energy infrastructure disclosures, exploration program updates, and credit-market commentary—that collectively shape how investors handicap risk and reward into the next results window. [31]
References
1. www.intelligentinvestor.com.au, 2. www.theaustralian.com.au, 3. www.tradingview.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.intelligentinvestor.com.au, 6. www.mining.sandvik, 7. www.marketscreener.com, 8. zenithenergy.com.au, 9. renews.biz, 10. www.wartsila.com, 11. www.fitchratings.com, 12. www.nsrltd.com, 13. www.nsrltd.com, 14. www.nsrltd.com, 15. www.nsrltd.com, 16. www.nsrltd.com, 17. www.marketscreener.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.marketindex.com.au, 20. www.nsrltd.com, 21. www.nsrltd.com, 22. zenithenergy.com.au, 23. www.fitchratings.com, 24. www.nsrltd.com, 25. www.nsrltd.com, 26. www.marketscreener.com, 27. www.nsrltd.com, 28. www.nsrltd.com, 29. www.nsrltd.com, 30. zenithenergy.com.au, 31. www.intelligentinvestor.com.au
