CSL Limited Stock (ASX:CSL) Today: Buyback Update, Macquarie Downgrade, and What Analysts Forecast for 2026 (Dec 17, 2025)

CSL Limited shares ended Wednesday, December 17, 2025 lower as investors digested a fresh on-market buyback update and the lingering impact of broker downgrades that have reshaped sentiment around one of Australia’s most widely held healthcare names. CSL (ASX: CSL; USOTC: CSLLY) closed at A$172.77, down 2.47% on the day, after trading between A$172.75 and A$176.83 with roughly 800,720 shares changing hands. ^[1]

The move keeps CSL near the bottom end of its recent range. Investing.com’s data shows a 52‑week span of A$168.00 to A$290.32, and a -38.60% change over the past year, illustrating just how sharply the market has repriced the stock in 2025. ^[2]

CSL share price today: why CSL stock is moving

Two forces are dominating the CSL narrative heading into year-end:

Capital returns are accelerating via an on-market buyback that’s steadily soaking up shares.
Growth confidence has been dented by repeated concerns around CSL’s vaccines business (Seqirus), China albumin dynamics, and competitive threats in immunology—issues that have prompted high-profile target-price cuts.

That push-pull—supportive buybacks versus a more skeptical growth outlook—has become the defining setup for CSL stock into 2026.

ASX update: CSL’s on-market buyback continues (Appendix 3C, Dec 17)

Before markets opened, CSL released an Appendix 3C daily buy-back notification dated 17/12/2025, confirming ongoing activity under its on-market buyback program. ^[3]

Key takeaways from the filing:

CSL disclosed it bought back 74,399 shares on the previous day (16/12/2025). ^[4]
Total shares repurchased were 2,880,966 before that day, implying 2,955,365 shares repurchased in total as of the end of 16/12/2025 (summing the figures in the form). ^[5]
Total consideration paid was A$563.82m before the previous day, plus A$13.23m on the previous day—about A$577.05m spent in aggregate based on the filing’s figures. ^[6]
The buyback is an on-market buy-back using UBS Securities Australia Limited as broker. ^[7]
The disclosed program runs from a proposed start date of 4/9/2025 to a proposed end date of 30/6/2026. ^[8]
CSL stated it intends to buy back up to A$750 million of ordinary shares under the program. ^[9]

Because the cap is expressed in dollars (A$750m) rather than a maximum number of shares, the form’s “remaining number of securities” field is left blank (it only applies where a maximum share count is disclosed). ^[10]

Why it matters for investors: buybacks can be a meaningful support when a stock is under pressure—reducing share count over time and potentially boosting per-share metrics—if earnings expectations stabilize.

Broker action: Macquarie downgrades CSL and slashes its target price

The biggest “tone-setting” research catalyst in the past few sessions came from Macquarie, which downgraded CSL to Neutral from Outperform and cut its price target to A$188 from A$275. ^[11]

In Reuters reporting carried by TradingView, Macquarie’s thesis focused on a cluster of risks: ^[12]

Lowered earnings expectations: Macquarie trimmed EPS estimates by 4% (FY26), 5% (FY27), and 5% (FY28). ^[13]
Seqirus softness: downgraded guidance tied partly to weaker performance at the vaccines unit. ^[14]
China albumin sensitivity: risk to FY26 guidance with the second half dependent on containing China albumin impacts. ^[15]
CIDP competition risk: Macquarie estimated roughly 25% of CSL Behring’s immunoglobulin share in CIDP could be at risk, with a potential ~4% EPS impact by FY33. ^[16]

Market Index’s live commentary added more color on the competitive backdrop, pointing to pressure from FcRn antagonists and complement inhibitors and describing a broader market framing of CSL as “ex‑growth” after R&D setbacks and structural shifts. ^[17]

Analyst forecasts: consensus still leans “Buy,” but the range has narrowed

Despite Macquarie’s downgrade, broader sell-side consensus remains supportive—at least on paper.

Reuters cited LSEG-compiled data showing CSL is rated “buy” on average, with a median price target of A$237 (from 16 analysts). ^[18]

Investing.com’s consensus snapshot is directionally similar:

Overall consensus: Buy
12 Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell (based on a poll of the past three months)
Average 12-month price target: A$236.67 (about +36% upside from the reference price shown on the page)
Target range: ~A$188 to ~A$292 ^[19]

That spread is telling. The low-end target (around A$188) now sits close to Macquarie’s call, while the high end implies a very different view: that CSL can re-establish a cleaner growth trajectory once near-term disruptions fade.

The 2025 backdrop: why CSL stock was repriced so aggressively

To understand the current CSL stock setup, you have to rewind through two major 2025 “shock” moments:

August 2025: restructuring, job cuts, buyback—and a vaccines spin-off plan

In August, Reuters reported CSL would cut up to 3,000 employees, seek annualised savings up to $550m over three years, and take a one-off pre-tax charge up to $770m, alongside a plan to spin off its CSL Seqirus vaccines unit and commence an A$750m share buyback. ^[20]

The same Reuters report noted CSL delivered 14% annual profit growth but flagged volatility and softness in the U.S. vaccines market—an early signal that Seqirus would remain a swing factor for sentiment. ^[21]

October 2025: Seqirus spin-off delayed and FY26 outlook downgraded

In late October, Reuters reported CSL delayed the Seqirus spin-off amid “heightened volatility” and cut its FY26 outlook after an “unprecedented” fall in U.S. flu immunisation rates. ^[22]

CSL also cut guidance at that time to:

FY26 revenue growth: 2%–3% (down from 4%–5%)
FY26 NPATA growth: 4%–7% (down from 7%–10% on a constant currency basis) ^[23]

That reset mattered because CSL has historically traded like a premium “durable growth” compounder. When the market stops believing the “durable” and the “growth” parts at the same time, valuation multiples get… unsentimental.

CSL’s long-term bet: doubling down on plasma-derived therapies in the US

While near-term debate fixates on Seqirus and guidance risk, CSL is also making long-cycle moves to reinforce its core.

In November, Reuters reported CSL plans to invest US$1.5 billion in the United States over the next five years to expand manufacturing of plasma-derived therapies, strengthening its U.S. manufacturing capabilities and supply chain. ^[24]

CSL’s own newsroom release framed the investment as a push to meet “growing clinical need” for immunoglobulin over the long term, saying the plan would support U.S. manufacturing capacity and jobs, and noting CSL has invested over US$3 billion into U.S. operations since 2018 (with the new investments subject to board approval). ^[25]

For CSL stock watchers, this matters for two reasons:

It reinforces that management is still planning around structural demand growth in key therapy areas (especially immunoglobulin).
It also highlights capital intensity—big investments can support future capacity and reliability, but they raise the bar on execution and returns.

CSL stock outlook for 2026: catalysts investors are watching next

As of Dec 17, 2025, the next phase for CSL Limited stock likely comes down to whether the company can shrink the “uncertainty discount” that has crept into the share price.

Here are the most market-relevant catalysts:

1) Half-year results (next major reporting checkpoint)

MarketScreener’s company calendar points to a 10/02 earnings event (listed as “Q2 2026 Earnings Release”). ^[26]
That’s a key date for any update on:

Seqirus performance and demand signals in the U.S.
Progress on restructuring and cost-out delivery
Management’s tone on China albumin and immunoglobulin demand

2) Seqirus strategy and timing clarity

CSL has already shown willingness to delay the spin-off when conditions don’t support “maximisation of shareholder value,” per Reuters’ October report. ^[27]
Investors now want a clearer answer to: Is Seqirus a value-unlocking demerger story—or an earnings volatility story that won’t go away?

3) China albumin: stabilisation vs. structural drag

China albumin has become an investor shorthand for “hard-to-model downside.” Macquarie explicitly flagged it as a risk to FY26 guidance if not contained in the second half. ^[28]
Separately, at least one broker headline suggests improvement expectations into fiscal H2 2026 (Jefferies, via MarketScreener/MT Newswires). ^[29]

4) Competitive threats in immunology and CIDP

The market is increasingly focused on whether newer mechanisms (including those highlighted by Market Index) can chip away at CSL’s immunoglobulin franchise in specific indications like CIDP. ^[30]
This doesn’t necessarily mean CSL’s core business is broken—but it does mean the “default premium” investors used to pay is no longer automatic.

5) Buyback pace and remaining capacity

With CSL indicating a A$750m buyback program and filings showing roughly A$577m of consideration paid to date (based on the Appendix 3C figures), investors will watch how much of the remaining capacity is deployed while the stock trades at depressed levels. ^[31]

The bull case vs. bear case for CSL shares right now

Bull case (why some see CSL stock as “value” again):

Significant buyback support while the share price is near the lower end of its 52‑week range. ^[32]
Consensus analyst targets still point to meaningful upside (mid‑A$230s on average). ^[33]
Long-term investment into U.S. plasma-derived therapy manufacturing signals conviction in durable demand. ^[34]

Bear case (why the stock can stay “cheap”):

Guidance cuts and Seqirus volatility have shifted CSL from “defensive growth” toward “execution-risk healthcare.” ^[35]
China albumin and immunology competition are complex headwinds that can keep earnings revisions trending negative. ^[36]
Broker target cuts—especially high-profile ones like Macquarie—can cap near-term re-rating until the data turns. ^[37]

Bottom line on CSL Limited stock (Dec 17, 2025)

CSL stock is closing out 2025 in an unusual place: still widely regarded as a high-quality global biopharma company, but priced as if its growth engine is no longer dependable. The company is actively buying back shares, and the broader analyst community still leans “Buy” with targets clustered well above today’s level. ^[38]

Whether that upside materialises in 2026 is likely to hinge on three things: Seqirus visibility, containment of China albumin impacts, and evidence that CSL’s core immunoglobulin franchise can keep compounding despite a tougher competitive landscape. ^[39]