NEW YORK — 6:15 a.m. ET, Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2025. U.S. stock futures are edging higher early Wednesday after a mixed Tuesday session, as investors recalibrate expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and brace for a late-week burst of inflation data. The pre-market tone is being shaped by three forces: a “noisy” jobs report that revived easing bets, a rebound in oil after fresh Venezuela headlines, and a busy stretch for earnings and deal-driven single-stock moves. [1]
US stock futures rise modestly ahead of the opening bell
As of roughly 5:50 a.m. ET, futures pointed to a slightly stronger start for Wall Street:
- Dow Jones futures: 48,234, +0.21%
- S&P 500 futures: 6,824, +0.34%
- Nasdaq 100 futures: 25,240.5, +0.40% [2]
The modest uptick comes after Tuesday’s uneven close, when the Dow fell about 0.6%, the S&P 500 slipped about 0.2%, and the Nasdaq finished slightly higher, reflecting a market that’s struggling to pick a clear direction into year-end while macro uncertainty remains elevated. [3]
Why markets are hesitant: inflation reports are about to take over the tape
The next big test for risk assets is inflation—and the calendar is unusually concentrated late in the week.
Reuters reports markets are focused on U.S. CPI on Thursday and PCE inflation on Friday, data that could quickly reshape the outlook for 2026 rate cuts. [4]
That matters because traders have been leaning more dovish again after the latest labor data and the Fed’s most recent decision. Reuters notes the Fed delivered its third quarter-point cut of 2025 last week, and markets are still pricing about two quarter-point cuts in 2026. [5]
The tension: the Fed’s “higher-for-longer” credibility is being tested by signs of a cooling labor market, while inflation has not fully disappeared as a risk. That push-pull is why each major data point is landing harder than it normally would in mid-December.
Fed speakers in focus: Waller and Williams set the tone before CPI
Wednesday also brings key Fed communication risk, starting early in the U.S. session.
Investing.com reports Fed Governor Christopher Waller is scheduled to speak at 8:15 a.m. ET, his first remarks since last week’s rate cut—an appearance that could influence how aggressively markets price the next leg of easing. [6]
Separately, MarketWatch’s calendar highlights that New York Fed President John Williams is also slated to speak this morning (listed at 9:05 a.m. ET). [7]
Investors are also tracking Fed leadership speculation: Investing.com says a Wall Street Journal report indicates President Donald Trump is set to interview Waller regarding the next Fed chair, with Powell’s term scheduled to end in May. [8]
Commodities are back in the driver’s seat: oil jumps, metals surge
Oil rebounds on Venezuela blockade headlines
Energy is back in focus after crude bounced sharply. Reuters reports oil rose more than 2% after President Trump ordered a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, injecting new supply uncertainty into a market already grappling with shifting geopolitics. [9]
At around 6:00 a.m. ET, Markets Insider showed:
- WTI crude futures: $56.57, +2.35%
- Brent crude futures: $60.34, +2.55% [10]
Traders will also watch U.S. inventory signals: Reuters notes API data showed U.S. crude stocks fell 9.3 million barrelslast week, with official EIA figures due later Wednesday for confirmation. [11]
Silver and gold stay red-hot
Meanwhile, precious metals continue to post outsized moves. Reuters reports silver surged past $65/oz and hit an intraday record $66.52, with gold also advancing as rate-cut expectations firmed and investors positioned ahead of CPI/PCE. [12]
Markets Insider data around 6:00 a.m. ET showed silver futures near $65.91 (+3.39%) and gold futures near $4,317.71 (+0.36%). [13]
For equities, that combination typically boosts interest in energy and mining/metal-linked stocks, while complicating the inflation narrative (higher energy prices can filter into inflation expectations).
Stocks to watch today: AI deal chatter, media M&A drama, and key earnings
Amazon–OpenAI investment report adds another AI catalyst
A notable pre-market storyline: Reuters reports Amazon is in talks to invest about $10 billion in OpenAI, a headline that could ripple across megacap tech sentiment and the broader “AI trade.” [14]
Warner Bros–Paramount–Netflix: takeover tensions remain in play
Media and streaming names are also active. Reuters reports Warner Bros Discovery shares rose pre-market on talk the company may reject Paramount’s bid and back Netflix in a bidding dispute. [15]
Investing.com similarly notes reports that Warner Bros’ board may recommend rejecting a $108.4 billion hostile bid and supporting a Netflix-linked deal structure. [16]
Earnings spotlight: General Mills and Jabil before the bell; Micron after close
Before the opening bell, investors are watching consumer staples and industrial/tech manufacturing prints:
- General Mills (GIS): Nasdaq lists a consensus EPS estimate of $1.02 for the quarter ending Nov. 30, 2025. [17]
- Jabil (JBL): Nasdaq lists consensus EPS of $2.27 for the same quarter timing. [18]
After the close, the market’s attention swings to semiconductors:
- Micron (MU) reports after the bell; Investing.com frames it as a late-year read-through on AI-linked demand, especially for high-bandwidth memory used in advanced AI systems. [19]
And looking ahead to Thursday, consumer discretionary traders are positioning around a major retail brand:
- Nike (NKE) reports Thursday after the close, and Investopedia notes options pricing implies a potential ~7% movefollowing results as investors gauge progress on Nike’s turnaround and tariff pressure. [20]
Market outlook for today: two scenarios that matter most
With liquidity often thinning into the holiday stretch, markets can feel calm—until a catalyst hits. For Wednesday, two “if/then” setups dominate:
1) If inflation runs cooler than expected…
A softer CPI print Thursday would likely pull Treasury yields down, reinforce expectations for multiple cuts in 2026, and could help rate-sensitive growth regain traction—especially in beaten-up pockets of tech. Reuters notes markets are already leaning toward two cuts next year, so a benign print could validate that stance. [21]
2) If inflation surprises hotter…
A hotter CPI would challenge the market’s dovish pricing and could reignite pressure on richly valued segments—particularly those that rallied hardest on falling-rate assumptions. It could also support the U.S. dollar and keep bond yields elevated, tightening financial conditions at the margin. [22]
Either way, Fed messaging today (Waller/Williams) becomes more important because it sets expectations before the data lands.
What to watch today: the Wednesday checklist
- 6:15 a.m. ET: Futures modestly higher; commodities notably strong (oil, silver). [23]
- 8:15 a.m. ET: Fed Gov. Christopher Waller speaks. [24]
- Morning: NY Fed President John Williams scheduled to speak (MarketWatch listing: 9:05 a.m. ET). [25]
- Before the bell: Earnings from General Mills and Jabil. [26]
- Later today: Watch for official U.S. inventory data after API’s reported crude draw (energy sensitivity remains high). [27]
- After the close: Micron earnings as an AI/semiconductor sentiment barometer. [28]
- Thursday/Friday: CPI then PCE—the main macro event risk for the rest of the week. [29]
As of early Wednesday, Wall Street is signaling a cautious rebound attempt—but the day’s real direction may depend less on the opening print and more on what Fed officials say ahead of inflation data that could reset rate expectations into 2026. [30]
References
1. markets.businessinsider.com, 2. markets.businessinsider.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.marketwatch.com, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. markets.businessinsider.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. markets.businessinsider.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.nasdaq.com, 18. www.nasdaq.com, 19. www.investing.com, 20. www.investopedia.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. markets.businessinsider.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.marketwatch.com, 26. www.nasdaq.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.investing.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.investing.com
