Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) is back in the spotlight on Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2025, as investors digest a fresh set of financial targets for 2026, updated 2025 revenue expectations, and a growing pile of “what matters next” questions about the company’s post-COVID trajectory.
In late-morning trading, Pfizer stock hovered around $25.53, down about 3.4% on the day, reflecting a cautious market reaction to management’s outlook and the company’s longer roadmap through a multi-year patent-expiration cycle.
Below is what’s moving Pfizer stock today, what the company just guided for 2026, how analysts are framing the setup, and the pipeline and policy catalysts investors are watching closely.
Why Pfizer stock is moving today: 2026 guidance resets expectations
The immediate trigger for the latest move in Pfizer shares is the company’s newly issued full-year 2026 guidance, paired with a revision to full-year 2025 revenue (while keeping 2025 adjusted EPS intact). In its guidance materials, Pfizer put 2026 revenue in a range of $59.5 billion to $62.5 billion and 2026 adjusted diluted EPS at $2.80 to $3.00. [1]
At the same time, Pfizer said 2025 revenue is now expected to be approximately $62.0 billion (down from the prior range), while 2025 adjusted diluted EPS remains $3.00 to $3.15. [2]
Wall Street’s first read: the 2026 profit outlook landed below the average analyst estimate tracked by LSEG, a key reason the stock has struggled to find a durable bid despite Pfizer’s aggressive dealmaking and cost-cutting narrative. [3]
The numbers: what Pfizer’s 2026 outlook actually says
Pfizer’s own framing is that 2026 is a “bridge year” — a period of continued investment and restructuring while core products face pressure from waning COVID demand and increasing competition.
Here are the guidance items investors are keying in on:
- 2026 revenue:$59.5B–$62.5B [4]
- 2026 adjusted diluted EPS:$2.80–$3.00 [5]
- 2026 adjusted SI&A expense:$12.5B–$13.5B [6]
- 2026 adjusted R&D expense:$10.5B–$11.5B [7]
- 2026 effective tax rate on adjusted income:~15% (vs ~11% in 2025) [8]
- Share repurchases: guidance assumptions include no share repurchases in 2025 or 2026 [9]
One detail that matters for the “COVID reset” debate: Pfizer’s table breaks out COVID-19 product revenue at roughly $6.5B for 2025 and roughly $5.0B for 2026. [10]
Pfizer also emphasized that at the midpoint, it expects about 4% operational revenue growth excluding COVID-19 products and products facing loss of exclusivity (LOE)—a way of saying the underlying business is intended to grow even if the headline total looks sluggish. [11]
What’s pressuring the outlook: COVID erosion, LOE, and margin headwinds
On the call and in coverage afterward, the big theme is that Pfizer is trying to manage two fades at once:
- A continuing decline in COVID vaccine and treatment demand
- A growing loss-of-exclusivity problem as competition hits certain products
Reuters reported Pfizer expects about a $1.5B revenue drop from COVID products and about a $1.5B revenue impact from products losing exclusivity, while also signaling that the next few years could be “bumpy.” [12]
Another factor investors are weighing is policy-driven margin pressure. Reuters highlighted that Pfizer struck an agreement with the Trump administration tied to Medicaid pricing in exchange for tariff relief, and Pfizer warned that the related discounts would contribute to price and margin compression next year. [13]
Meanwhile, Pfizer continues to tout an aggressive cost program: Reuters noted the company’s objective to generate more than $7 billion in annual savings through 2027 as it tries to protect profitability while rebuilding growth drivers. [14]
Analyst forecasts and price targets: “Hold” vibes, with catalysts pushed out
A lot of the most-read “Pfizer stock forecast” commentary right now boils down to a single question: How long does investors’ patience last while the company waits for its next wave of blockbusters?
Several analysts see the near-term setup as limited:
- Reuters quoted Bernstein analyst Courtney Breen arguing the stock may remain range-bound in the mid-$20s until investors see a clearer growth trajectory. [15]
- Leerink Partners’ David Risinger told Investors Business Daily that the guidance miss was “not a major surprise,” citing acquisition and licensing impacts; the same report points to a looming patent cliff for several large Pfizer products by 2028. [16]
- On the price-target front, Investing.com reports BofA Securities lowered its price target to $27 while keeping a Neutral stance, pointing to faster-than-expected COVID product erosion and the need to “de-risk” key obesity and oncology programs. [17]
For a broader snapshot of Street expectations, a Nasdaq/Fintel item cited an average one-year target of about $29.69, with a wide range between roughly $24 and $39 (figures that can vary depending on the analyst set and timing). [18]
The market’s current message to Pfizer is fairly blunt: “Show me the next durable revenue engine.”
Pipeline and deals: oncology and obesity are the two big “prove it” arenas
Pfizer’s story for 2026–2030 is increasingly a story about capital allocation and R&D conversion—especially after its big strategic moves in oncology and obesity.
Oncology: leveraging Seagen assets and combos
Pfizer’s guidance materials explicitly point to investment in programs such as PF-08634404, a PD-1 x VEGF bispecific antibody in-licensed from 3SBio, as part of its 2026 R&D spending plan. [19]
Obesity: Metsera integration and clinical milestones
Pfizer is also pouring resources into obesity, with Reuters noting that 2026 R&D spend is expected to rise partly due to programs from Metsera, which Pfizer acquired to establish a stronger position in weight-loss therapeutics. [20]
(Separately, Pfizer has said it completed the Metsera acquisition, describing the company as a wholly owned subsidiary and outlining milestone-based contingent payments tied to clinical and regulatory events.) [21]
A fresh catalyst today: Keytruda + Padcev posts positive Phase 3 topline results in MIBC
While the stock is trading primarily on financial guidance, Pfizer investors also got meaningful pipeline news on Dec. 17 that touches a key oncology franchise.
Merck announced positive topline results from the Phase 3 KEYNOTE‑B15 / EV‑304 trial in muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) for KEYTRUDA (pembrolizumab) plus Padcev (enfortumab vedotin-ejfv), reporting statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvements in event-free survival (EFS), overall survival (OS), and pathologic complete response (pCR) versus neoadjuvant chemotherapy and surgery. Merck notes the trial was conducted in collaboration with Pfizer and Astellas. [22]
Why this matters for Pfizer stock:
- Padcev is a major antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) asset tied to Pfizer’s oncology ambitions, and positive data in earlier-stage disease can expand the commercial runway if regulators approve additional indications. [23]
- The press release also states the companies plan to share results with regulators for potential filings—exact timing matters, but the direction is what investors care about today. [24]
This doesn’t “solve” Pfizer’s near-term growth debate by itself, but it strengthens the argument that Pfizer’s oncology portfolio can generate meaningful new value over time—especially if more label expansions move from topline headlines to approvals and revenue.
Dividend watch: Pfizer declares $0.43 quarterly payout
Income investors are also watching Pfizer for a simpler reason: the dividend.
Pfizer announced its board declared a $0.43 first-quarter 2026 dividend, payable March 6, 2026, to shareholders of record as of Jan. 23, 2026, marking what Pfizer described as its 349th consecutive quarterly dividend. [25]
For many shareholders, the dividend is a key part of the “why hold PFE during the rebuild” thesis—though the market will continue to weigh dividend strength against the need for R&D investment and dealmaking through the patent cliff.
Cost cutting and restructuring: the other lever investors want to see working
Beyond top-line growth, Pfizer’s ability to protect earnings depends heavily on execution: simplifying operations, reducing costs, and optimizing business units.
Reuters recently reported Pfizer planned to cut over 200 jobs in Switzerland as part of broader cost-reduction efforts. [26]
Reuters also reported Pfizer plans to create a new hospital and biosimilars unit, with at least one analyst describing it as a sign the company may be positioning those businesses for potential disposal or restructuring. [27]
The big picture for Pfizer stock: a “prove the next era” moment
As of Dec. 17, 2025, the market’s verdict on Pfizer is not that the company lacks assets or scientific capability. It’s that Pfizer is in a high-stakes transition where investors need clarity on three timelines:
- How fast COVID revenue stabilizes at a “new normal.” [28]
- How hard LOE and competition hit between now and the end of the decade. [29]
- When oncology and obesity programs become visible, repeatable growth engines rather than future-tense PowerPoint promises. [30]
Or, to put it in plain English: Pfizer is trying to jump a canyon while rebuilding the bridge behind it.
What investors will watch next
The next set of catalysts for Pfizer stock will likely cluster around:
- Execution against 2026 guidance (especially margins, tax rate impact, and cost savings) [31]
- Clinical and regulatory updates across oncology (including Padcev-related programs) and obesity [32]
- Business development decisions: whether Pfizer adds assets, sells non-core units, or adjusts capital return priorities [33]
References
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