Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (NYSE: AMR) — one of the most closely watched U.S. metallurgical (coking) coal producers — is back in the spotlight on December 17, 2025, after a sharp move higher that has traders revisiting the company’s newly issued 2026 guidance and a fresh wave of insider-trading headlines.
In Wednesday trading, AMR shares were up solidly, trading around the mid-$190s after opening near $190 and printing an intraday range that pushed toward the high-$190s. [1]
What follows is a full, publication-ready roundup of today’s news, forecasts, and analyses (17.12.2025) — including the key numbers from Alpha’s 2026 outlook, what recent insider filings actually show, and where Wall Street’s limited analyst coverage currently puts fair value.
AMR stock today (Dec. 17, 2025): price action and trading context
AMR’s rally on Wednesday has been notable both for its size and for how quickly sentiment has improved since the stock’s prior close. Market coverage today described AMR as up roughly mid-single digits intraday, with trading reaching as high as roughly $199 in some reports. [2]
Real-time market data also shows AMR trading around $195 during the session, with a roughly $191–$199 type range on the day and a strong gain versus the prior close.
One important detail: volume has been a talking point in today’s write-ups. Market coverage highlighted that midday share volume looked well below typical averages, suggesting the move may be more about price discovery and positioning than a broad “everyone piling in” risk-on session. [3]
Why Alpha Metallurgical Resources is in focus: 2026 guidance meets a met-coal reality check
Today’s AMR coverage is largely an aftershock of Alpha’s 2026 calendar-year guidance issued last week — a roadmap that matters because met coal is famously cyclical, and investors tend to re-rate miners when they can see:
- shipment volumes,
- cost assumptions,
- capex intensity,
- and management’s tone about near-term conditions.
In its 2026 outlook, Alpha’s CEO explicitly acknowledged that near-term market conditions “appear challenging”, while emphasizing internal levers: safe production, efficiency/cost containment, and investment in the Kingston Wildcat low-vol mine to improve portfolio mix. [4]
That combination — “challenging now, building for the next turn” — is the center of gravity for most of today’s AMR analysis.
The numbers investors are parsing: Alpha’s 2026 guidance (volumes, costs, capex)
Alpha’s 2026 guidance provided unusually specific ranges across operations and cash items. The headline operational target:
- Metallurgical coal shipments:14.4 to 15.4 million tons
- Incidental thermal coal shipments:0.7 to 1.1 million tons
- Total shipments:15.1 to 16.5 million tons [5]
On costs and spending, Alpha guided to:
- Cost of coal sales:$95 to $101 per ton (and notably, the company said the estimated impact of the Section 45X credit is inherent in this per-ton guidance) [6]
- SG&A:$53 million to $59 million (excluding non-recurring expenses and non-cash stock comp) [7]
- Idle operations expense:$24 million to $32 million [8]
- Depreciation, depletion & amortization:$160 million to $174 million [9]
- Capital expenditures:$148 million to $168 million, including sustaining capex and development capex to complete the Kingston Wildcat mine [10]
- Contributions to equity affiliates:$35 million to $45 million, including items tied to Dominion Terminal Associates (DTA) and facility upgrade investments [11]
- Expected 2026 cash tax rate:0% to 5% [12]
For a coal name, this matters because the market doesn’t just price this quarter — it prices perceived durability of cash generation across the cycle. Guidance that shows cost discipline and controlled capex can support a higher “through-cycle” valuation, even if near-term pricing is soft.
Contracting update that still matters in today’s read-through: 2026 domestic commitments
In late November, Alpha also announced 2026 domestic sales commitments of approximately:
- 3.6 million tons of met coal to domestic customers
- at an average price of $136.75 per ton [13]
That domestic contracting data has continued to show up in current AMR commentary because it helps frame how much of 2026 is already “visible,” and at what pricing level — a key anchor when export markets are uncertain.
Insider activity: what today’s AMR coverage highlights (and what the filings show)
1) Director buying: amended Form 4/A and a large ownership stake
A major element in AMR’s current narrative is director insider buying, including an amended SEC filing.
The SEC Form 4/A states it amends a Form 4 originally filed December 12, 2025, to correct an error in the reported post-transaction ownership, noting that lines were revised to reflect accurate dates, share amounts, and weighted average prices. [14]
The filing also shows that after the final reported transaction on December 12, 2025, the reporting person beneficially owned 807,537 shares held directly, after a sequence of open-market purchases across multiple days in December. [15]
This is a key reason insider buying keeps appearing in AMR analysis: it’s not a token purchase — it’s a meaningful ownership position being increased.
Market coverage today also pointed to a specific purchase example: a director purchase of 12,760 shares at an average price around $181.85 (transaction date: Dec. 11, 2025), a detail that helped frame “insider conviction” in many summaries. [16]
2) Insider selling: CCO Daniel E. Horn sale highlighted in “major holdings changes”
At the same time, recent insider selling has also been flagged. Coverage summarized that Alpha’s Chief Commercial Officer sold roughly 8,125 shares at about $188.32 (roughly $1.53 million total), leaving just under 5,000 shares directly owned. [17]
How sophisticated investors tend to read this mix:
- Director buying, especially in size and over multiple days, is often interpreted as higher-signal.
- Executive selling can be neutral (taxes/portfolio), but size and timing always get attention.
- The market typically reacts most when the buying/selling appears lopsided or clustered.
Right now, the storyline is “meaningful director buying” remains the stronger headline driver.
Wall Street forecasts for AMR: price targets cluster around the mid-$180s — but coverage is thin
Because AMR is a niche, cyclical commodity equity, analyst coverage is limited — and that’s why consensus numbers vary depending on the data provider and which research notes they include.
Here’s the current snapshot cited across major forecasting/consensus pages:
Investing.com consensus (analyst-based)
- Overall consensus: Buy
- Ratings mix shown: 1 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell
- Average 12-month target:$184.50 [18]
TradingView / FactSet-based consensus display
- Price target:$184.67
- High / low target:$204 / $165 [19]
MarketBeat consensus (different inclusion set)
- Consensus rating: Hold (based on 3 analyst ratings displayed)
- Average target price:$160.50 [20]
TipRanks (headline summary tied to 2026 guidance coverage)
TipRanks’ coverage tied to the guidance announcement noted the “most recent” analyst rating as Hold with a $180 price target (as presented in that write-up). [21]
What to take away from the dispersion:
This isn’t a case where analysts wildly disagree on the company’s existence — it’s a case where a small number of ratings creates a wide swing in “consensus,” depending on which provider you read. For AMR, it’s smart to treat analyst targets as a range of scenarios rather than a single authoritative “fair value.”
Valuation debate: “near fair value” arguments emerge after the guidance reset
One of the more widely circulated analysis pieces dated December 17, 2025 comes from Simply Wall St, which framed today’s question as a “valuation check after 2026 guidance, capex plans and insider buying.”
That analysis put a fair value estimate at $184.50 and described the shares as roughly around fair value (slightly over) based on its model assumptions at the time of publication. [22]
Whether you agree with that framework or not, it highlights the market’s current tension:
- If met coal remains weak longer than expected, the stock can look “cheap” and still drift.
- If steel demand improves and met pricing normalizes, the same asset base and cost discipline can re-rate quickly.
Technical and algorithmic forecasts dated Dec. 17, 2025: bullish signals — but treat as secondary
Several algorithmic/technical forecast sites updated today also leaned bullish:
- CoinCodex displayed a bullish technical sentiment (majority of indicators signaling bullish) and noted its analysis was updated on Dec. 17, 2025. [23]
- Hexn similarly showed a “bullish” sentiment reading (with a neutral Fear & Greed-style indicator) and short-term path assumptions around the high-$190s. [24]
These tools can be useful for describing momentum and volatility expectations, but for a commodity producer like AMR, they generally shouldn’t outweigh the fundamental drivers: steel demand, met coal pricing, realized margins, and shipment execution versus guidance.
What investors will watch next: the real catalysts for AMR stock
As of Dec. 17, 2025, the next set of AMR-moving catalysts looks less about headlines and more about follow-through:
- Execution vs. 2026 guidance
- Shipment volumes (met vs incidental thermal)
- Cost-per-ton performance vs the $95–$101 range
- Capex discipline vs the $148–$168 million plan [25]
- Signals from contracting and pricing
- Whether domestic commitments expand beyond the ~3.6M tons already disclosed
- Export market pricing and volume mix (often the swing factor in downcycles) [26]
- Insider tape
- Whether director buying continues (or spreads to other insiders)
- Whether additional executive selling appears and at what scale [27]
- Earnings timing
- Several market calendars list the next earnings timing as estimated, not confirmed. MarketBeat, for example, shows an estimated next earnings date of Feb. 27, 2026 based on historical schedules. [28]
Bottom line on AMR stock on Dec. 17, 2025
AMR’s move today is less about a single breaking headline and more about investors re-pricing the stock after three overlapping developments:
- A detailed 2026 operational and financial outlook that anchors volumes, costs, and capex, even while acknowledging near-term market pressure. [29]
- Insider activity that includes material director buying (and a corrected, amended filing) alongside a notable executive sale. [30]
- A scattered but informative set of forecasts, with many consensus-style targets clustering around the mid-$180s, while some provider datasets point lower — largely due to thin coverage. [31]
For investors and traders, the practical question isn’t just “why is AMR up today?” It’s whether Alpha’s 2026 plan — particularly cost control and portfolio improvements — can bridge the company to the next upcycle in steel demand without eroding balance-sheet flexibility.
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. www.prnewswire.com, 5. www.prnewswire.com, 6. www.prnewswire.com, 7. www.prnewswire.com, 8. www.prnewswire.com, 9. www.prnewswire.com, 10. www.prnewswire.com, 11. www.prnewswire.com, 12. www.prnewswire.com, 13. alphametresources.com, 14. www.sec.gov, 15. www.sec.gov, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.tradingview.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. www.tipranks.com, 22. simplywall.st, 23. coincodex.com, 24. hexn.io, 25. www.prnewswire.com, 26. alphametresources.com, 27. www.sec.gov, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. www.prnewswire.com, 30. www.sec.gov, 31. www.tradingview.com
