CSL Limited (ASX: CSL) spent much of 2025 reminding investors of a brutal truth: even world-class biopharma franchises can get whacked when costs, policy, and sentiment all lean the wrong way at the same time. On 18 December 2025, the CSL share price was A$174.57 (delayed), up 0.68% on the day after trading between A$171.64 and A$174.65. [1]
The day’s most concrete “fresh” news is a buyback update—but the real story investors are pricing is broader: the post-pandemic reset in flu vaccination demand (and politics around vaccines), margin recovery in plasma, China-linked albumin uncertainty, and whether CSL’s cost-and-capital reset can re-accelerate earnings as FY26 unfolds. [2]
CSL share price today: where CSL is trading on 18 December 2025
As of 15:05 AEDT on 18 Dec 2025, CSL was quoted at:
- A$174.57 last (delayed)
- Day range: A$171.64 to A$174.65
- Previous close: A$173.39
- Market cap: ~A$84.7bn [3]
For context on the drawdown that’s been haunting long-term holders: the same data source lists CSL’s 52-week high at A$288.33 (8 Jan 2025) and 52-week low at A$170.77 (29 Oct 2025). [4]
That “from hero to… still a hero, but currently booed by the market” arc matters, because it frames why even seemingly shareholder-friendly moves (like buybacks) are being judged against a much bigger expectation: a credible path back to stronger, more reliable growth.
The new headline on 18 Dec 2025: CSL updates its on‑market buyback
CSL lodged an Appendix 3C (daily buy-back notification) dated 18/12/2025. [5]
Key details disclosed in the filing include:
- Shares bought back on the previous day (17/12/2025): 65,217
- Total shares bought back before the previous day: 2,955,365 [6]
- Consideration paid (previous day): A$11.37m
- Total consideration paid (before previous day): A$577.05m [7]
- Previous day prices: high A$177.00, low A$172.58 [8]
- The buyback is being executed via UBS Securities Australia Limited. [9]
- CSL’s on‑market buyback is framed as part of a program up to A$750m, with disclosed dates indicating a proposed start 4/9/2025 and end 30/6/2026. [10]
How investors typically interpret this: buybacks can support earnings per share and signal management confidence—but only if the underlying earnings engine is expected to strengthen. In CSL’s case, that engine is basically a three-headed beast (plasma therapies, vaccines, iron/nephrology), and the market’s biggest questions sit in the “vaccines + costs + China” corner of the room.
Why CSL stock has been volatile: Seqirus, vaccination rates, and FY26 guidance risk
The most market-moving CSL moment in recent months came at the late-October 2025 AGM window, when CSL flagged a sharper-than-expected deterioration in U.S. flu immunisation rates and pushed out plans to spin off the Seqirus vaccines business. [11]
Reuters reported CSL cut FY26 guidance ranges at that time, including:
- Revenue growth: reduced to 2%–3% (from 4%–5%)
- NPATA growth: reduced to 4%–7% (from 7%–10%) [12]
Morningstar’s analysis similarly described CSL cutting fiscal 2026 guidance at the midpoint, and highlighted the driver as weaker U.S. immunisation trends and a delayed Seqirus demerger timeline. [13]
One more detail that matters for how investors model the downside: Morningstar notes that Seqirus is <15% of group earnings, implying that vaccines can hurt sentiment and guidance credibility without necessarily being the dominant earnings contributor over the long run. [14]
Still, markets are narrative machines. A vaccine unit that suddenly becomes a political football can weigh on valuation even if it’s “only” a slice of earnings.
Broker and analyst tone in December: Macquarie downgrade stands out
On the sell-side, one of the sharpest resets came from Macquarie, which (via a Reuters item carried by TradingView) said it:
- Cut its price target to A$188 from A$275
- Downgraded CSL to “neutral” from “outperform” [15]
Macquarie also flagged:
- EPS estimate cuts of 4%/5%/5% for FY26/FY27/FY28
- A view that FY26 is riskier because the second half is “reliant on containing China’s albumin impacts”
- A longer-dated risk call: an estimate that 25% of CSL Behring’s immunoglobulin share in CIDP is at risk, which could translate to a ~4% EPS impact by FY33 (Macquarie’s estimate, not company guidance). [16]
That’s a lot of caution packed into a small paragraph—and it helps explain why CSL’s rebound attempts keep running into analyst skepticism. It’s not just “flu shots were weak”; it’s “how many other little leaks are hiding in the hull?”
Another headline investors are watching: ANAO scrutiny of the Seqirus vaccine deal
CSL also got pulled into a political-procurement story through Seqirus, after the Australian National Audit Office (ANAO) examined government procurement relating to onshore vaccine/antivenom capability.
ANAO’s published audit summary states that the procurement did not maximise value for money for taxpayers, citing issues such as lack of an approach to market, lack of an overall value-for-money conclusion due to no comparator, and shortcomings in planning and documentation. [17]
The ANAO report also highlights gaps in longer-term planning—for example, contract management planning that lacked key elements including planning for the conclusion of the Seqirus contract in ten years’ time. [18]
Two important nuances for investors:
- This is not the same thing as “CSL did something illegal.” It’s an audit critique of procurement process/value-for-money justification on the government side. [19]
- Even if it doesn’t change near-term cash flows, it can still add headline risk around Seqirus—exactly the business CSL already decided was better separated (when market conditions allow).
The bull case CSL investors still point to: plasma margins, scale, and long-run demand
Even with all the noise, CSL’s longer-run investment case hasn’t vanished into a puff of disinfectant spray.
Morningstar argues that CSL’s shares were undervalued relative to its fair value estimate (it cited AUD 295 after a cut) and expects plasma margin recovery as efficiency initiatives flow through. [20]
Among the more specific claims in that analysis:
- A forecast that plasma gross margins recover ~600 bps to 57% by FY28
- A view that long-term immunoglobulin demand growth is driven by improving diagnosis rates
- An estimate that CSL owns roughly 30% of plasma collection centres globally [21]
CSL itself has leaned into the “do the boring operational work” narrative via restructuring and capital allocation moves. Reuters reported that, back in August, CSL flagged workforce reductions and targeted A$750m of buybacks, with annualised cost savings of A$500m–A$550m over three years, alongside a one-off pre-tax restructuring charge of A$700m–A$770m. [22]
Growth investments: CSL doubles down on the U.S. plasma manufacturing footprint
One of CSL’s clearest “we’re building, not hiding” signals this cycle has been its U.S. manufacturing push.
Reuters reported CSL planned to invest US$1.5 billion in the United States to manufacture plasma-derived therapies, describing it as an expansion of its U.S. footprint over the next five years. [23]
CSL’s own announcement framed this as approximately US$1.5b in U.S. capital investments intended to strengthen plasma-derived therapy manufacturing capability and help secure the local supply chain (and noted the plans were subject to board approval). [24]
If you’re looking for what management wants you to believe, it’s this: the plasma franchise is the core, and CSL is spending to protect it.
Pipeline momentum: Hemgenix long‑term data adds to the “innovation” side of the story
CSL also highlighted clinical durability in gene therapy—specifically for HEMGENIX (etranacogene dezaparvovec), a gene therapy for haemophilia B.
In a 7 December 2025 release, CSL said five‑year (60‑month) results from the pivotal HOPE‑B Phase 3 study confirmed long‑term durability and safety of a one‑time infusion, and noted publication in the New England Journal of Medicine. [25]
Pipeline progress rarely moves a mega-cap biopharma stock overnight—but it shapes the “multiple” investors are willing to pay, especially when other divisions are wobbling.
CSL stock forecast: what analysts are projecting into 2026
Analyst forecasts are still broadly positive on a 12‑month view, despite the downgrades and headline risk.
Investing.com’s consensus snapshot shows:
- Overall consensus: Buy
- Ratings breakdown: 12 Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell (based on the prior ~3 months of data) [26]
- Average 12‑month price target:A$237.14
- Implied upside from the then-current price:~+35.77% [27]
- Target range (low to high): about A$188.58 to A$292.17 [28]
Notably, that low end (~A$188.6) sits right around Macquarie’s A$188 target after its downgrade—meaning the “bear-ish” sell-side view is now setting the floor of the published target range investors see on aggregator screens. [29]
What this spread tells you: the market isn’t fighting about whether CSL is a “good company.” It’s fighting about timing—how fast margins recover, how ugly the vaccine backdrop gets, and how much China/regulatory/payer friction shows up in the numbers.
What to watch next: the February 2026 half‑year results
CSL’s investor site lists its 2026 half-year financial results webcast for 10:00am Tuesday, 11 February 2026 (AEDT). [30]
Between now and then, the CSL debate is likely to hinge on a few practical indicators:
1) Buyback pace vs. price weakness
Daily Appendix 3C updates make it easy to track how aggressively CSL is buying into dips. [31]
2) Plasma efficiency translating into margins (not just slides)
This is where the long-term bull case lives and dies: operational wins that show up as margin expansion and earnings resilience. [32]
3) Seqirus sentiment and U.S. vaccination data
The October guidance reset was explicitly linked to weaker U.S. flu immunisation trends and volatility. Another leg down in vaccination demand would keep pressure on the “when can Seqirus be demerged?” question. [33]
4) China-linked albumin and therapy-mix risks
Macquarie’s commentary puts China albumin impacts and CIDP-related share risk on the radar for longer-term earnings modelling. [34]
Bottom line for CSL Limited stock on 18.12.2025
On 18 December 2025, CSL stock has a very “two-movies-at-once” vibe:
- Movie A (near-term): vaccine-market volatility, audit headlines, and downgrades pressuring confidence. [35]
- Movie B (medium/long-term): capital returns via buybacks, U.S. manufacturing investment, and a plasma/gene-therapy franchise that analysts still mostly rate as a Buy with substantial upside to consensus targets. [36]
References
1. www.intelligentinvestor.com.au, 2. investors.csl.com, 3. www.intelligentinvestor.com.au, 4. www.intelligentinvestor.com.au, 5. investors.csl.com, 6. investors.csl.com, 7. investors.csl.com, 8. investors.csl.com, 9. investors.csl.com, 10. investors.csl.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.morningstar.com.au, 14. www.morningstar.com.au, 15. www.tradingview.com, 16. www.tradingview.com, 17. www.anao.gov.au, 18. www.anao.gov.au, 19. www.anao.gov.au, 20. www.morningstar.com.au, 21. www.morningstar.com.au, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. newsroom.csl.com, 25. newsroom.csl.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. www.investing.com, 28. www.investing.com, 29. www.tradingview.com, 30. investors.csl.com, 31. investors.csl.com, 32. www.morningstar.com.au, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.tradingview.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. investors.csl.com
