Sydney, 18 December 2025 — Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares traded lower on Thursday as Australian equities softened and gold-miner sentiment cooled, even with bullion still hovering near historic highs. By late afternoon in Australia, spot gold was steady around US$4,332/oz, with investors focused on upcoming US inflation data and what it could mean for interest rates and the US dollar. [1]
That macro backdrop matters for Northern Star because gold miners are, in practice, a hybrid of commodity exposure and operational execution: the gold price can lift revenue quickly, but costs, project delivery, and mine performance decide whether that revenue becomes free cash flow.
Below is what’s moving Northern Star stock today, what the company has most recently told the market, and how analysts are framing the upside-and-risk equation going into 2026.
Northern Star share price today (18 December 2025)
Northern Star was trading around A$26.66 on 18 December, versus a previous close near A$27.12. The session range was roughly A$26.345 to A$27.140, and the stock’s 52-week range was listed around A$15.06 to A$27.985. [2]
Market commentary on Thursday pointed to broad weakness in gold miners, with Northern Star cited among the laggards during the session. [3]
What’s driving Northern Star stock on 18 December
1) Gold is high, but the market is waiting on US inflation signals
Reuters reported spot gold easing slightly to about US$4,332/oz, supported by dovish Fed expectations but capped by a firmer US dollar ahead of key inflation releases. [4]
For gold equities, this “pause-and-watch” setup often translates into choppy trading: the metal can be strong, yet miners can drift if the market thinks the next move in rates or FX could tighten financial conditions.
2) ASX risk-off tone hit gold miners despite bullion strength
In Australian market coverage during Thursday’s trade, Northern Star was specifically mentioned among gold miners sliding on the day. [5]
That matters because gold shares don’t always track bullion tick-for-tick—especially after strong runs—since investors also rotate based on broader equity risk appetite, earnings expectations, and sector flows.
3) Investor focus is still on execution: Kalgoorlie upgrades and the growth pipeline
Northern Star’s current narrative is dominated by growth and expansion work—particularly around Kalgoorlie’s Super Pit (“Fimiston”) system and longer-dated growth projects—where the market tends to demand proof of schedule discipline and cost control.
A Livewire Markets analysis published today captured the mood: it argued Northern Star has been marked down by concerns tied to the Kalgoorlie expansion (including issues referenced as a wall event) and the capital intensity of its post–De Grey/Hemi growth pipeline, even as the author sees potential for a “catch-up” trade if gold remains elevated and key headwinds fade in 2026. [6]
The latest official updates from Northern Star
While there was no new company ASX release dated 18 December, Northern Star’s website lists its most recent ASX items as an Exploration Update (5 Dec 2025) and an Investor Presentation (24 Nov 2025), among other notices. [7]
Here are the key takeaways from the latest operational and exploration disclosures that investors are still pricing today.
September 2025 quarterly: production, costs, guidance, and cash position
In its September 2025 Quarterly Activities Report (released 23 October 2025), Northern Star reported:
- Gold sold: ~381 koz
- AISC: ~A$2,522/oz
- FY26 guidance:1,700–1,850 koz gold sold, with AISC A$2,300–2,700/oz
- Net cash: ~A$616 million, with cash and bullion ~A$1.511 billion (after dividends and tax instalments)
- Notes that hedge commitments continue to unwind
[8]
The report also flagged operational disruptions early in the December quarter at Jundee and South Kalgoorlie Operations, estimating an impact of up to ~20 koz of December-quarter gold sales, with volumes scheduled to be processed later in the year. [9]
December 2025 exploration update: A$225m program and Hemi-region work
Northern Star’s 5 December 2025 Exploration Update positioned exploration spending as a central pillar of its “organic growth” strategy, with FY26 exploration spend guided at ~A$225 million (unchanged). [10]
The update highlighted multiple areas across the portfolio, including:
- KCGM / Kalgoorlie: ongoing drilling and new underground access enabling increased activity; commentary included depth extension references for Fimiston South. [11]
- Hemi region: the company noted regional exploration success and described drilling results and follow-up plans in the Hemi area, including Diucon–Crow discussion and intercept reporting. [12]
It also stated the company intends to include Hemi Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves in its group annual statement targeted for May 2026, reflecting the ongoing technical review work post-acquisition. [13]
New this week: Sandvik fleet investment for WA operations
A notable equipment and services development came from Sandvik, which said Northern Star selected Sandvik to supply Toro TH663i underground trucks and Toro LH621i / LH517i loaders for its operations in Western Australia. Sandvik said the order was booked in Q4 2025, with deliveries expected to begin in Q1 2026 and continue through the year. [14]
This type of fleet investment is rarely a single-handed share-price catalyst, but it feeds into the market’s bigger question about 2026: can Northern Star expand and modernise while protecting unit costs and operational reliability?
Analyst forecasts and price targets for Northern Star stock
Consensus targets point to moderate upside—but dispersion is wide
Analyst consensus compiled by Investing.com on 18 December shows an average 12‑month price target around A$29.04, with a high estimate near A$35.15 and a low estimate around A$13.70, and an overall “Buy”-tilted recommendation mix. [15]
That wide spread is telling. It suggests analysts broadly agree Northern Star has leverage to a high gold price environment, but disagree on how much value will flow through after considering:
- growth capital intensity,
- execution risk at Kalgoorlie and other hubs,
- and how sustainable margins remain if costs rise.
Broker/research headlines in the market
A research aggregation note circulated this week said Macquarie maintained an “Outperform” stance (as tracked by Fintel), and it referenced a one‑year target average around A$29.17 from a broader set of forecasts. [16]
Separately, Simply Wall St’s recent commentary framed Northern Star as a battleground stock where valuation outcomes can vary materially depending on assumptions for gold prices, project delivery, and long-term cash flows. [17]
The “big 2026” debate: hedging unwind, costs, and Kalgoorlie transformation
One of the more discussed swing factors is how quickly Northern Star’s realized pricing can reflect spot gold. In Livewire’s analysis published today, the author claimed Northern Star had hedged about 41% of early‑2026 production, with those fixed-price contracts gradually expiring into 2026, potentially increasing leverage to prevailing gold prices. [18]
On the cost side, Northern Star’s own quarterly disclosures point to cost pressure and capital intensity (including growth projects and sustaining capital) even as it maintains FY26 guidance ranges. [19]
In plain language: if gold stays high, Northern Star has a tailwind. But share performance in 2026 is likely to be decided by execution—hitting throughput targets, managing disruptions, and converting big capital programs into lower unit costs and higher free cash flow.
What investors are watching next
Northern Star’s published calendar lists these upcoming milestones:
- December 2025 Quarterly Results:22 January 2026
- FY26 Half Year Results:12 February 2026
- March 2026 Quarterly Results:22 April 2026
- June 2026 Quarterly Results:22 July 2026
[20]
Other practical “watch items” for Northern Star stock into 2026 include:
- evidence that December-quarter disruptions were resolved within the expected timeframe, [21]
- continued progress on Kalgoorlie / KCGM expansion and readiness, [22]
- updates on the Hemi integration and resource/reserve reporting path, [23]
- and whether the company’s hedge position continues to unwind, increasing sensitivity to spot bullion. [24]
Key risks to keep in mind
Northern Star’s investment case is compelling in a high-gold world—but it’s not a free lunch:
- Gold price and USD volatility: gold is currently elevated, but macro turning points can move fast. [25]
- Cost inflation and royalties: higher costs and price-linked royalties can compress margins even when gold rises. [26]
- Project execution risk: delays or overruns at major upgrades can weigh on sentiment and valuation. [27]
- Operational disruptions: temporary mine issues can shift ounces between quarters and complicate guidance confidence. [28]
Bottom line
On 18 December 2025, Northern Star Resources stock is trading lower with the gold sector, even as bullion remains near record territory and analysts still see moderate upside on consensus targets. [29]
For investors, the 2026 question is less “Is gold high?” and more: Can Northern Star translate high gold prices into cleaner margins and free cash flow while delivering its Kalgoorlie upgrades and advancing the Hemi-driven growth pipeline? The next major checkpoint is the December-quarter update on 22 January 2026. [30]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.rttnews.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.rttnews.com, 6. www.livewiremarkets.com, 7. www.nsrltd.com, 8. www.nsrltd.com, 9. www.nsrltd.com, 10. www.nsrltd.com, 11. www.nsrltd.com, 12. www.nsrltd.com, 13. www.nsrltd.com, 14. www.mining.sandvik, 15. www.investing.com, 16. fintel.io, 17. simplywall.st, 18. www.livewiremarkets.com, 19. www.nsrltd.com, 20. www.nsrltd.com, 21. www.nsrltd.com, 22. www.nsrltd.com, 23. www.nsrltd.com, 24. www.nsrltd.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.nsrltd.com, 27. www.nsrltd.com, 28. www.nsrltd.com, 29. www.rttnews.com, 30. www.nsrltd.com
