Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX: S68)—the listed operator of Singapore’s main stock and derivatives markets—was trading softer on 18 December 2025, even as fresh market data points to a livelier local bourse and sell-side analysts lift price targets on expectations that Singapore’s equity-market reboot is beginning to bite.
On Dec 18, 2025, SGX shares were indicated at S$16.68, down 0.18%, after trading between S$16.65 and S$16.83 with about 743.6k shares in volume (as captured in the day’s historical tape). [1]
That small pullback doesn’t change the bigger story investors have been trading for most of 2025: SGX is effectively a “picks-and-shovels” play on market activity—and market activity has been picking up. The question now stalking the stock is less “Is momentum improving?” and more “How much of this is structural—versus a volatility cycle that can fade as quickly as it arrives?”
What moved SGX shares on 18 December 2025
Unlike a bank or a property developer, SGX’s earnings engine is tightly linked to trading volumes, clearing activity, listings, and the broader appetite for hedging and risk management. As a result, SGX shares often react not just to earnings releases, but also to monthly market statistics, policy signals, and shifts in volatility.
The most recent hard datapoint feeding into the Dec 18 narrative is SGX’s November 2025 market snapshot, released earlier in the month. In SGX’s own summary, securities market turnover value rose 18% year-on-year to S$35.5 billion, while securities daily average value climbed 24% year-on-year to S$1.8 billion—with SGX pointing to strong interest in index stocks and REITs alongside a constructive market backdrop. [2]
That matters because, for SGX, higher cash-equities turnover is not just “nice to have”—it’s central to the bull thesis that Singapore’s equity market can regain relevance after years of thin liquidity and delistings.
The “Singapore market revival” thesis—now with actual numbers
SGX’s detailed Monthly Market Statistics Report for November 2025 backs up the headline momentum with more texture.
Some of the most investor-relevant lines in the November report:
- Securities market turnover value:S$35,545 million in Nov 2025 (vs S$33,932 million in Oct 2025)
- Securities daily average value:S$1,777 million in Nov (vs S$1,542 million in Oct)
- Total market capitalisation:S$1,034,736 million (Nov)
- Derivatives volume:25,901,263 contracts (Nov) with daily average volume of 1,310,947 [3]
One key nuance: while equity turnover improved meaningfully, SGX also flagged that regional market consolidation moderated some equity-derivatives activity—a reminder that parts of SGX’s business are inherently cyclical. [4]
Analyst forecasts: higher target prices, but not universal “buy” calls
Broker commentary in mid-December shows analysts becoming more constructive—especially around the idea that Singapore’s reforms may be pushing the market into a higher-liquidity regime.
In a Dec 15, 2025 roundup of broker views, The Edge Singapore reported that multiple houses raised target prices on SGX:
- UOB Kay Hian kept a “hold” call, but lifted target price to S$17.30.
- Maybank Research reiterated “buy” and raised its target to S$18.81.
- RHB maintained a “neutral” stance while raising target price to S$17.90. [5]
A particularly important thread in those notes is the idea of operating leverage: if trading activity stays elevated while costs remain comparatively steady, incremental revenue can translate into outsized profit and dividend upside. That’s one reason targets have been moving up. [6]
But even in bullish notes, there’s a repeated caveat: valuation is no longer “cheap.” Several analysts framed the stock as attractive on dips rather than a table-pounding buy at any price. [7]
Morningstar’s pushback: improved fundamentals, but “overvalued” signals
The counterweight to rising broker targets has been valuation discipline—and Morningstar has been one of the louder voices on that side.
According to a Dec 16, 2025 report published by The Edge, Morningstar’s equity research raised SGX’s fair value estimate to S$15 (a modest increase), but still described the shares as screening “overvalued” versus that estimate. The same piece notes Morningstar lifted its FY2026 revenue forecast to S$1.5 billion, while cautioning against assuming today’s volatility and hedging demand will persist indefinitely. [8]
That tension—better business, richer price—is exactly the kind of “two-true-things” situation markets love to argue about.
Where “consensus” sits on 18 December 2025
Snapshot-style consensus trackers show the Street leaning positive overall, though with dispersion depending on methodology.
One consensus compilation (as displayed on Dec 18, 2025) indicated an average share price target of S$18.27 versus a S$16.71 reference price—implying roughly 9% upside from that level. [9]
Take these aggregations as directional rather than definitive—different platforms weight different analyst universes, and targets can lag fast-moving narratives. But the message is consistent with broker commentary: upside cases still exist, yet the “easy rerating” may already be behind us.
Strategic catalysts investors are watching now
SGX’s 2025 story hasn’t been powered by a single catalyst. It’s been more like a stack of reinforcing drivers—policy, products, and macro uncertainty—all funnelling into “more activity, more hedging.”
1) Singapore’s market reform agenda and liquidity programs
Singapore’s authorities have been explicit about wanting a stronger equity market, and Reuters has reported on initiatives aimed at making listings and capital formation more attractive—part of a broader effort that includes easing frictions and encouraging liquidity. [10]
For SGX shareholders, that matters because reforms that increase participation can lift the exchange’s core metrics: turnover, clearing, and data revenues.
2) Product expansion: crypto perpetual futures for institutional participants
SGX has also kept pushing into “volatility-friendly” products. Reuters reported SGX would launch bitcoin and ether perpetual futures (available to institutional and accredited investors) starting Nov 24, 2025, extending SGX’s derivatives franchise into crypto-linked instruments. [11]
Separately, SGX’s own November market commentary highlighted early activity in these institutional-only crypto perpetuals and framed them as part of its broader positioning as a hub for volatility-driven trading. [12]
3) Corporate clarity: denying a Cboe Australia bid narrative
M&A rumors can briefly move exchange stocks—especially if investors start sketching integration risks or capital deployment questions. Reuters reported in early December that SGX said it was not interested in acquiring Cboe Australia, after media speculation. [13]
In other words: the market has been nudged back toward focusing on fundamentals rather than deal drama.
Dividend outlook: a key reason SGX has a loyal shareholder base
SGX is widely held as a yield-and-quality compounder: steady cash generation, a strong competitive position in certain derivatives niches, and a history of shareholder returns.
Earlier in 2025, Reuters reported SGX declared a final quarterly dividend and signalled an intention to increase dividends gradually through FY2028—a policy direction that supports the “income + growth” narrative when volumes cooperate. [14]
Dividends aren’t a guarantee, of course—SGX’s payout capacity ultimately traces back to activity levels and the broader market environment. But this is one reason the stock tends to hold investor attention even when price momentum cools.
Valuation and the “how much is already priced in?” problem
After a strong run, SGX has drifted into the uncomfortable zone where almost everyone likes the business, but fewer people love the price.
A market snapshot around mid-December put SGX at roughly S$17.9 billion in market capitalisation with a high-20s P/E (depending on the exact timing and measure). [15]
That doesn’t mean the stock must fall. It does mean the market is demanding proof that:
- higher turnover isn’t a one-off,
- derivatives volumes remain resilient even if macro volatility fades, and
- reforms translate into sustained liquidity and listings—rather than a brief headline cycle.
Morningstar’s fair value framing (S$15 vs. trading levels above that) captures this skepticism in a single number. [16]
Key risks for SGX shareholders heading into 2026
A sober SGX bull case needs a risk section, because the business model is clean—but not immune to cycles.
Volatility normalization: If geopolitical or macro volatility falls, hedging demand can cool, which may pressure derivatives volumes (a point echoed in analyst caution about extrapolating elevated activity). [17]
Reform implementation risk: Liquidity programs and market-structure changes can help, but effects may take time and can be uneven—especially if global risk sentiment turns.
Competitive dynamics: Regional exchanges keep innovating, and global capital doesn’t owe any market its attention. SGX must keep differentiating—particularly in cross-asset hedging and connectivity products. [18]
Valuation compression: Even with solid fundamentals, a premium multiple can compress if growth expectations soften.
What to watch next after 18 December 2025
If you’re tracking Singapore Exchange Ltd stock into year-end and early 2026, the next signals are likely to come from the same places that have powered the story so far:
- Monthly market statistics: do equity turnover and SDAV remain elevated beyond the “reform excitement” window? [19]
- IPO and listing momentum: does pipeline activity translate into sustained listing fees and secondary-market engagement? [20]
- Derivatives franchise health: are commodities, FX, and index derivatives still drawing institutional flows? [21]
- Rate expectations and REIT activity: lower rate expectations can revive yield-trades and cash-equities turnover—an element SGX itself and analysts have pointed to as supportive. [22]
SGX on Dec 18 looks like a stock in a classic “good company, harder valuation” phase: it has credible tailwinds, supportive policy narratives, and improving activity metrics—yet it’s now priced for execution. Markets love this setup because it forces everyone to argue with spreadsheets instead of slogans.
References
1. ng.investing.com, 2. repository.shareinvestor.com, 3. repository.shareinvestor.com, 4. repository.shareinvestor.com, 5. www.theedgesingapore.com, 6. www.theedgesingapore.com, 7. www.theedgesingapore.com, 8. www.theedgesingapore.com, 9. growbeansprout.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. repository.shareinvestor.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. stockanalysis.com, 16. www.theedgesingapore.com, 17. www.theedgesingapore.com, 18. repository.shareinvestor.com, 19. repository.shareinvestor.com, 20. www.theedgesingapore.com, 21. repository.shareinvestor.com, 22. www.theedgesingapore.com
