GSK plc (LSE: GSK; NYSE: GSK) is ending 2025 with a busy headline tape—exactly the kind of environment where investors tend to re-check both the “story” and the spreadsheet. On Thursday, December 18, 2025, GSK published a fresh share buyback update, while markets continue to digest a string of regulatory milestones across respiratory, vaccines, and infectious diseases that could shape the company’s growth profile into 2026.
Below is what’s new as of 18.12.2025, what analysts are forecasting, and what matters most for GSK stock next.
GSK stock snapshot on Dec. 18, 2025
In US trading, GSK’s ADR (NYSE: GSK) was at $48.71 at the latest reported trade time, down about 0.13% versus the previous close, with an intraday range of $48.68 to $49.45 and volume above 5.2 million shares (timestamp: 00:55 UTC, Dec. 18).
That price action is happening alongside a capital-returns program that’s still actively reducing share count—and a pipeline/news cycle that’s been unusually catalyst-heavy for a large-cap pharma name.
What happened today: GSK reports another buyback tranche
GSK’s most time-stamped “today” news (18 December 2025) is a regulatory announcement detailing another slice of its ongoing repurchase program.
According to the company’s Transaction in Own Shares update dated 18 December 2025, GSK said it bought 235,000 ordinary shares on 17 December 2025 (through BNP Paribas as broker) at a volume-weighted average price of 1,841.56 pence, with prices ranging from 1,824.00p to 1,850.00p. The shares will be held in treasury. [1]
Two numbers in that statement matter for stock-watchers who track capital returns like hawks:
- Since 30 September 2025, GSK reports it has repurchased 14,086,733 shares under the current buyback arrangement. [2]
- After this purchase, GSK said it held 239,551,577 shares in treasury, and reported total voting rights of 4,075,889,506 (with 5.88% of voting rights attributable to treasury shares). [3]
Buybacks don’t magically fix a business model—but for a mature, cash-generative pharma company, consistent repurchases can meaningfully support per-share metrics (EPS, dividends per share capacity, and valuation optics), especially when paired with late-stage pipeline conversions into marketed products.
The real stock catalyst: a cluster of regulatory wins in respiratory, vaccines, and antibiotics
While today’s buyback disclosure is the “official” Dec. 18 news item, the bigger market conversation around GSK stock this week is being driven by product and pipeline momentum.
1) Exdensur (depemokimab) gets US FDA approval in severe asthma
GSK announced on 16 December 2025 that the US FDA approved Exdensur (depemokimab-ulaa) as an add-on maintenance treatment for severe asthma with an eosinophilic phenotype in patients 12 years and older. GSK positions Exdensur as the first ultra-long-acting biologic in this setting with twice-yearly dosing, supported by Phase III SWIFT trial data. [4]
The SWIFT data cited by GSK is attention-grabbing: the company reported 58% and 48% reductions in annualized asthma exacerbation rates versus placebo in SWIFT-1 and SWIFT-2, respectively, along with a pooled-analysis signal for fewer hospitalizations/ED visits. [5]
Reuters’ coverage adds two investor-relevant wrinkles:
- The FDA approval is a growth positive, but the agency did not approve depemokimab for chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP) at this time, which can affect near-term label breadth expectations. [6]
- Analysts noted adoption will hinge on whether patients and prescribers embrace the twice-yearly model in a market filled with established biologics. [7]
For GSK stock, the simple framing is: a differentiated dosing schedule can be commercially powerful—if payers and clinicians accept it and if real-world persistence matches the clinical promise.
2) Europe: CHMP momentum for depemokimab, Nucala, and Arexvy
GSK is also stacking up European regulatory tailwinds.
- The EMA’s CHMP recommended approval of depemokimab in Europe, with a European Commission decision expected in early 2026, according to Reuters reporting earlier this month. [8]
- Separately, GSK said CHMP issued a positive opinion for expanding Nucala (mepolizumab) into COPD. [9]
- And CHMP backed an expanded indication for GSK’s RSV vaccine Arexvy to cover all adults 18+, with a final EU decision expected February 2026 (confirmed via both GSK and EMA materials). [10]
Nucala is especially interesting because COPD is a large, high-burden market where biologics have historically struggled to establish clean, widely accepted “biomarker-targeted” footholds. GSK’s materials point to the MATINEE Phase III study supporting the filing, and third-party reporting noted a reduction in exacerbations versus placebo on top of inhaled triple therapy. [11]
Arexvy’s potential label expansion is a more straightforward “commercial chess” story: CHMP support for 18+ would bring it onto a more comparable footing (by age range) versus key competitors, and Reuters highlighted the competitive set including Pfizer and Moderna. [12]
3) Blujepa (gepotidacin): expanded FDA use for gonorrhea
In infectious diseases, GSK announced that Blujepa (gepotidacin) has been approved by the US FDA as an oral option for uncomplicated urogenital gonorrhea in certain patients 12+ (meeting weight criteria) who have limited or no alternative options. [13]
This matters for two reasons investors tend to care about:
- It strengthens GSK’s anti-infectives positioning with an additional approved use-case. [14]
- It lands amid growing public-health concern over antibiotic resistance, which can influence uptake, guidelines, and procurement dynamics over time (even if initial commercial ramps are rarely linear). [15]
Fundamentals check: GSK’s 2025 guidance and shareholder returns framing
To understand whether these pipeline wins can translate into stock performance, investors usually triangulate them against the company’s most recent operational guidance and capital return policy.
In its Q3 update, GSK said it upgraded 2025 guidance and outlined expectations of:
- Turnover growth: 6% to 7%
- Core operating profit growth: 9% to 11%
- Core EPS growth: 10% to 12% [16]
On shareholder returns, GSK also stated:
- A Q3 2025 dividend of 16p, and 64p expected for full-year 2025
- £1.1 billion spent year-to-date 2025 under the £2 billion buyback program announced at FY 2024 [17]
Put those next to today’s buyback disclosure, and the message is consistent: GSK is trying to run a two-engine strategy—(1) scale launches and label expansions, while (2) returning capital through dividends and repurchases.
Analyst forecasts for GSK stock: price targets remain mixed
Wall Street’s view on GSK stock is not a one-note chorus.
MarketBeat, which tracks published analyst targets for the ADR, reports:
- Average 12-month price target: $44.13
- High target: $53.00
- Low target: $35.25 [18]
Relative to the ADR’s current trading level around the high-$40s, that consensus implies a modestly cautious average stance—even while the high-end target suggests some analysts see upside if launches and label expansions perform.
One important nuance for readers: price targets can lag fast-moving catalysts (like FDA approvals) and often reflect different valuation frameworks (DCF models, peer multiples, or pipeline probability adjustments). In plain English: two smart analysts can look at the same asthma approval and disagree on whether it’s worth $1 billion or $5 billion in risk-adjusted value—because the “adoption curve” is the entire ballgame.
Technical and momentum analysis: IBD flags improving stock characteristics
On the technical/momentum side, Investor’s Business Daily reported that GSK’s ADR Composite Rating rose to 96 (from 92), noting the stock moved above a buy zone tied to a cup-with-handle base entry at 40.57 and highlighting supportive metrics like an EPS Rating of 86 and an Accumulation/Distribution Rating of B. [19]
Even if you’re not a chart devotee, the takeaway is still useful: GSK has been screening better on blended fundamental/technical measures than it recently did—often a sign that institutional demand has improved or that earnings stability is reasserting itself.
The macro overlay: investment geography, UK pricing, and policy risk
GSK’s story isn’t only science and buybacks; it’s also geopolitics and reimbursement math.
The Guardian reported recent commentary from CEO Emma Walmsley emphasizing the US as the most attractive market for pharma investment and stating GSK plans to invest $30 billion in the US by 2030. [20]
The same reporting also pointed to the UK government reducing the clawback rate paid by drugmakers to the NHS (from 22.5% to 14.5% in 2026) and changes around NICE thresholds—policy moves aimed at keeping the UK competitive for life-sciences investment. [21]
For GSK stock, policy shifts like these typically show up in valuation through two channels:
- Expected net pricing / rebates (affecting margins)
- Willingness to invest (affecting long-term pipeline productivity and manufacturing footprint)
Risks investors are watching (because biotech miracles still have boring failure modes)
Even with a strong week of headlines, the risk list remains real:
- Commercial execution risk for Exdensur: twice-yearly dosing is a differentiator, but adoption depends on payer coverage, physician comfort, and competitive responses. [22]
- Label-scope risk: the FDA’s non-approval in CRSwNP (for now) narrows near-term breadth versus what some investors may have modeled. [23]
- Competitive pressure in asthma biologics and RSV vaccines, where incumbents are deeply embedded and pricing/contracting can be aggressive. [24]
- Patent-expiry and tariff uncertainty, highlighted in Reuters coverage as part of the backdrop for why GSK is leaning hard into new growth drivers. [25]
What to watch next for GSK plc stock into early 2026
The next few months present a clean checklist of potential stock-moving events:
- EU decisions (Q1 2026) tied to CHMP opinions in respiratory (including depemokimab) and COPD expansion dynamics. [26]
- Arexvy EU timing: marketing authorization for the expanded adult indication is expected around February 2026, per GSK/EMA materials. [27]
- Leadership transition: Luke Miels is set to assume full CEO responsibilities and join the board on January 1, 2026, a governance event markets will parse for strategy and capital allocation priorities. [28]
- Ongoing buyback cadence: today’s announcement reinforces that repurchases are active and measurable, not merely “authorized.” [29]
Bottom line: As of 18.12.2025, GSK stock is being supported by a tangible capital-returns program and a meaningful burst of regulatory momentum—especially the FDA approval of Exdensur (depemokimab) in severe eosinophilic asthma—while analyst targets remain mixed and execution risk (adoption, competition, reimbursement) remains the deciding factor for whether this turns into a sustained re-rating. [30]
References
1. www.investegate.co.uk, 2. www.investegate.co.uk, 3. www.investegate.co.uk, 4. www.gsk.com, 5. www.gsk.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.gsk.com, 10. www.gsk.com, 11. www.gsk.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.gsk.com, 14. www.gsk.com, 15. www.fda.gov, 16. www.gsk.com, 17. www.gsk.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.investors.com, 20. www.theguardian.com, 21. www.theguardian.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.gsk.com, 28. www.gsk.com, 29. www.investegate.co.uk, 30. www.gsk.com
