Updated 4:15 PM EST — Thursday, December 18, 2025
U.S. natural gas prices ended Thursday’s session with a familiar winter headline: storage fell sharply, but not as sharply as some traders expected — and the market sold off anyway.
The January NYMEX Henry Hub contract (the U.S. benchmark) whipsawed after a morning rally and ultimately finished lower, with late-session pricing around $3.89/MMBtu and down roughly 3% on the day. 1
The turning point was the weekly U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage report, released at 10:30 a.m. ET, which showed a 167 billion cubic feet (Bcf) withdrawal for the week ending December 12—a winter-sized pull, but slightly under some market expectations. 2
Natural gas market recap: Why prices fell even with a big withdrawal
Early Thursday, U.S. futures were higher on two supportive fundamentals:
- Near-record feedgas demand for U.S. LNG export plants
- A sense that last week’s cold delivered a larger-than-usual storage draw for mid-December
Reuters reported that futures climbed about 3% in the morning trade ahead of the government data, supported by strong LNG flows and a modest dip in output. 3
But after the EIA report hit the tape, the market’s tone shifted. Barchart’s market commentary said the January contract closed down 0.116 (about -2.9%), arguing that the withdrawal was smaller than the consensus it was tracking and that traders continued to weigh milder near-term weather against export demand. 1
In short: the market wanted “bullish enough” storage plus “cold enough” forecasts. On Thursday, it got the first part… but not a clean second part.
EIA storage report (Dec. 18): The numbers traders focused on
Here’s what the EIA reported for the week ending Dec. 12, 2025 (Lower 48):
- Working gas in storage:3,579 Bcf
- Weekly change:-167 Bcf
- Versus last year:61 Bcf lower
- Versus five-year average:32 Bcf higher
- EIA also noted inventories were within the five-year historical range. 2
The regional breakdown showed withdrawals concentrated in major consuming regions:
- Midwest: -64 Bcf
- South Central: -48 Bcf
- East: -46 Bcf 2
Why this matters: The headline withdrawal confirms winter demand is real, but the “still above the five-year average” storage cushion is a psychological cap—especially when weather models turn warmer in the near term.
Also, the next EIA storage report arrives December 24, which means next week’s update will compete with holiday-thinned liquidity and potentially sharper moves if forecasts swing. 2
LNG exports: A strong floor under U.S. demand
Even as prices slid, one pillar stayed firm: U.S. LNG export demand.
Reuters cited LSEG data showing average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants at about 18.5 Bcf/d so far this month, above November’s previous record average of 18.2 Bcf/d. 3
Barchart, citing BNEF data, put estimated LNG net flows to U.S. LNG export terminals at about 17.5 Bcf/d for Thursday (a different methodology, but the same message: exports remain very strong). 1
Market takeaway: LNG continues to act like a structural demand “bid” for U.S. gas—helping explain why the market can rally quickly on cold risks—yet it hasn’t eliminated the winter reality that weather still dominates day-to-day price direction.
Production: Still near record highs, even when it dips
The supply story remains one of the most stubborn headwinds for bulls.
Reuters reported Lower 48 output averaging roughly 109.5 Bcf/d so far in December, just under November’s record monthly level. 3
Barchart, using BNEF, cited Lower 48 dry gas production around 112.9 Bcf/d on Thursday and described production as “near a record high,” reinforcing why traders have been quick to sell rallies when warmth returns. 1
Bottom line: Production is high enough that the market often needs either sustained cold or sustained LNG strength (or both) to keep prices trending higher.
Weather outlook: The near-term warm risk vs. late-December cold risk
Thursday’s price action was a real-time demonstration of how traders split the weather picture into two windows:
1) The next 1–2 weeks (price-sensitive, day-to-day)
Reuters highlighted that milder forecasts were expected to reduce demand, even as the market watched storage. 3
2) The late-December / New Year window (optionality, tail risk)
Barchart cited forecaster Vaisala saying below-normal temperatures were expected in the eastern U.S. for Dec. 28–Jan. 1, a reminder that winter risk hasn’t left the chat. 1
How traders often interpret this mix:
Warmth in the near term can depress front-month futures, but credible late-month cold threats can keep volatility elevated—especially when LNG export demand is already running hot.
Technical and sentiment check: “Oversold” signals are flashing — but trend is still heavy
By Thursday evening GMT time, Investing.com’s technical dashboard for U.S. natural gas futures showed a “Strong Sell” summary, with multiple momentum gauges in bearish territory (including an RSI in the low 30s and “oversold” flags on certain oscillators). 4
Meanwhile, Charles Schwab’s daily futures commentary also framed the current market as a pullback from a recent three-year high (Dec. 5) as warmer temperatures undercut early winter cold fears—again emphasizing weather as the biggest variable for gas pricing. 5
Practical takeaway for readers: Technical “oversold” conditions can spark rebounds, but in natural gas those bounces typically need a fresh catalyst—most often a meaningful change in weather models, LNG feedgas surprises, or a shift in production trajectory.
Europe natural gas today: TTF edges higher, but supply looks steady
In Europe, the story was calmer than the U.S. screen.
Reuters reported Dutch and British gas prices posted small gains, with the benchmark Dutch TTF front-month up to around €27.57/MWh (about $9.48/MMBtu) as colder demand increased—but with pipeline and LNG deliveries viewed as sufficient to meet that demand, leaving the market broadly rangebound. 6
Why it matters for U.S. readers: European prices influence global LNG flows. A stable or softer Europe can reduce the urgency for incremental LNG cargoes—while a sudden European cold shock can quickly pull LNG (and pricing power) across the Atlantic.
Global LNG and natural gas headlines from Dec. 18, 2025
Beyond today’s price and storage action, several gas and LNG news items landed on December 18 that shape the longer narrative:
Egypt-Israel gas trade: Cairo calls Leviathan export deal “strictly commercial”
Egypt said a recently approved gas export arrangement with Israel has no political dimension, describing it as a private-sector commercial deal. Reuters noted the agreement involves supply of up to $35 billion of gas from Israel’s Leviathan field to Egypt. 7
ADNOC financing: $11 billion structured deal tied to future gas output
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) secured $11 billion in structured financing tied to future gas production from its Hail and Ghasha development, using a pre-export finance model. Reuters reported the project targets 1.8 Bcf/d of gas and expects first production before the end of the decade. 8
Woodside leadership change: LNG project execution meets “glut risk” debate
Reuters reported Woodside’s incoming CEO will need to navigate execution risk on major LNG projects—especially Louisiana LNG—amid growing market discussion about a future LNG supply glut and uncertain demand growth. 9
Asia’s U.S. LNG imports: 2025 volumes trend lower
A Reuters analysis focused on trade and tariffs said Asia’s LNG imports from the U.S. dropped to about 19.08 million tons in 2025 from 29.78 million tons in 2024, with China’s U.S. LNG intake particularly reduced. 10
Forecasts: Goldman’s natural gas outlook adds a longer horizon
In a broader commodities outlook note, Goldman Sachs included specific gas price forecasts:
- TTF (Europe):€29/MWh in 2026, €20/MWh in 2027
- U.S. natural gas:$4.60/MMBtu in 2026, $3.80/MMBtu in 2027 (levels it framed as incentivizing production growth) 11
These are bank forecasts—not market settlements—but they matter because they help shape how large investors think about future equilibrium prices, especially as LNG capacity expands and power demand grows.
What to watch next in natural gas
With Thursday’s storage report behind the market, the next catalysts are clear:
- Weather model runs (daily): Watch for confirmation (or reversal) of the late-December cold risk flagged by forecasters. 1
- LNG feedgas levels: Near-record flows have been supportive; any sustained dip (maintenance, outages, shipping issues) can change sentiment quickly. 3
- Production resilience: Traders will continue to test whether high output can offset winter demand surges. 3
- Next EIA storage report (Dec. 24): Holiday timing can amplify volatility if the number surprises. 2
- Europe’s TTF stability: A quiet Europe keeps global LNG competition contained; a cold European pivot can tighten the entire Atlantic basin. 6
This article is a news and market overview, not investment advice.
