Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE) ended Thursday, December 18, 2025, with a quiet-but-important setup for Friday’s session: the stock closed at $355.81 and then eased modestly in after-hours trading—while investors digested a fresh AI-video partnership announcement and continued to weigh legal risks tied to AI training data. [1]
With U.S. markets opening again tomorrow, Friday, December 19, 2025, here’s what matters most for anyone tracking Adobe stock pre-market: the after-hours tape, the day’s biggest headlines, where analyst expectations sit now, and the catalysts that can move ADBE at (or shortly after) the opening bell.
Adobe stock price after the bell: where ADBE stands heading into Friday
Regular-session close (Thu, Dec. 18):
- $355.81 at 4:00 p.m. ET, up about 0.32% on the day [2]
After-hours (as of early evening updates):
- Around $355.00 at ~7:01 p.m. ET (down about 0.23% from the close) [3]
- Another after-hours print shows $354.92 at ~7:15 p.m. ET (down about 0.25%) [4]
Thursday’s trading range and context:
- Intraday range roughly $351.36 to $358.34 [5]
- The stock’s 52-week range is approximately $311.58 to $465.70 [6]
- MarketScreener data also indicated Adobe is down about ~20% year-to-date (as of this week), which helps explain why positive AI/product headlines don’t always translate into immediate, outsized price spikes. [7]
Bottom line: After-hours trading is slightly negative—but not “panic” negative. The move looks more like position-adjusting than a repricing of Adobe’s outlook.
The biggest Adobe headlines from today that investors are reacting to
1) Adobe partners with Runway on next-generation AI video (today’s top product catalyst)
Adobe announced a multi-year strategic partnership with Runway aimed at powering “the next generation of AI-driven video workflows” across creators, studios, brands, and enterprises. Key details include:
- Adobe will be Runway’s preferred API creativity partner
- Exclusive early access in Adobe workflows to new Runway models—starting with Runway Gen-4.5, now available in the Adobe Firefly app
- Joint work on specialized AI capabilities intended for professional video workflows, rolling out “exclusively” in Adobe apps starting with Firefly [8]
Why it matters for the stock: Wall Street has been pressing Adobe to prove AI is not just “defensive,” but monetizable at scale. A partnership that pulls a high-profile video model into Adobe’s ecosystem is one more signal that Adobe is leaning into premium, pro-grade AI workflows (where pricing power is typically better than consumer novelty features).
2) Legal overhang: Adobe hit with proposed AI training class action (still fresh)
A proposed class action alleges Adobe’s AI tools were trained on writers’ copyrighted works without permission—specifically referencing claims about pirated copies of books used to train Adobe’s SlimLM small language models (used for document-related tasks). Adobe did not immediately comment to Reuters at the time of reporting. [9]
Why it matters for Friday: even if the case takes months (or years), the market often prices legal uncertainty quickly when it involves AI training data—because outcomes can influence future model development costs, licensing strategy, and product roadmaps.
3) Analyst and forecast chatter stayed active into the close
One of the most-circulated “end of day” writeups highlighted Phillip Securities:
- Maintained a Buy rating, but cut its price target to $487 from $560 (dated Dec. 15, resurfacing strongly today)
- The note framed the change as more valuation-driven than thesis-breaking, and cited expectations of roughly 10% revenue growth and 6% earnings growth in fiscal 2026 [10]
Separately, Citi also adjusted its view recently, keeping a more cautious stance while lifting its target (details below).
The real debate on Adobe right now: AI monetization vs. AI disruption (and where the numbers land)
Even as the stock has been choppy in 2025, Adobe’s most recent company guidance and commentary have been pointing to durable demand—plus AI usage that is actually scaling.
From Reuters’ coverage of Adobe’s latest outlook:
- Adobe expects fiscal 2026 revenue of $25.90B to $26.10B
- Adjusted EPS expected at $23.30 to $23.50
- CFO Dan Durn said monthly active users for Adobe’s freemium offerings rose 35% year over year to 70M+
- Adobe also agreed to buy Semrush for $1.9B to strengthen marketing intelligence across web search and GenAI-driven discovery [11]
How investors interpret this:
- The bull case: Adobe is using AI to widen its moat—embedding generative features inside workflows where professionals already pay and where switching costs are high.
- The bear case: AI lowers barriers for competitors (especially in image/video generation), forcing Adobe to invest heavily to keep its edge—potentially pressuring margins and slowing near-term multiple expansion.
The market’s muted reaction after-hours today suggests traders see the Runway partnership as strategically positive—but not a single headline that instantly resolves that bigger tug-of-war.
Adobe stock forecast check: where Wall Street price targets and ratings sit now
There isn’t one “official” forecast—there’s a range. And the spread is a story by itself.
Consensus targets (broad market view)
MarketBeat’s compiled analyst data shows:
- Consensus price target: $417.93
- Highest target noted: $540
- Lowest target noted: $280
- Consensus rating described as Hold based on its tracked analyst mix [12]
In other words: analysts, in aggregate, still see upside from current levels—but the overall rating mix implies many firms want more proof that AI monetization will accelerate fast enough to justify a meaningfully higher multiple.
Notable recent target changes that investors are circulating
- Citi: Maintained Neutral/Hold, raising the target to $387 from $366 (Tyler Radke) [13]
- Phillip Securities (as discussed above): kept Buy, lowered target to $487 [14]
What to take from this: targets are being revised in both directions, and many changes appear tied to valuation frameworks and pacing of AI ROI—less about Adobe’s core franchise suddenly weakening.
Technical levels and volatility: what traders may watch into Friday
If you’re looking at Adobe strictly through a “tomorrow morning” lens, the last two sessions give clean reference points:
- Near-term support zone: around $351–$352 (Thursday’s low near $351.36) [15]
- Near-term resistance zone: around $358–$359 (Thursday’s high near $358.34) [16]
Options-implied move into Dec. 19 expiration
One widely followed options-data source pegged Adobe’s implied move into the Dec. 19, 2025 expiration at roughly $7.19 (about 2.07%). [17]
That doesn’t “predict direction,” but it’s useful context for what the options market is pricing as a plausible short-horizon move.
Why Friday could be noisier than usual: triple witching dynamics
December 19, 2025 is the third Friday of December, which is commonly associated with “triple witching” (a major derivatives expiration event), a setup that can increase volatility and volume—especially near the open and close. [18]
What to know before the stock market opens tomorrow (Fri, Dec. 19, 2025)
Here’s a practical pre-market checklist for Adobe watchers:
1) Watch whether after-hours softness turns into a pre-market trend
As of the evening of Dec. 18, ADBE was slightly lower after-hours (roughly -0.2% to -0.3%). [19]
If pre-market volume pushes it back above the close, that often signals the market treated the dip as routine. If it accelerates lower (especially below the ~$351–$352 area), traders may start leaning into a “risk-off” interpretation tied to legal headlines or broader market flows.
2) Track follow-on coverage and commentary on the Runway partnership
The partnership is strategically important because it touches a high-growth battleground—AI video—and plugs into Adobe’s professional distribution channels (Firefly/Premiere/After Effects workflows). [20]
Tomorrow’s question is simple: do investors treat this as additive revenue potential, or just another cost/complexity layer in the AI arms race?
3) Don’t ignore the AI copyright lawsuit narrative
Legal risk around AI training data has been moving multiple stocks across the AI stack. If Adobe comments, files a response, or if additional plaintiffs/law firms pile in, the headline risk can expand quickly. [21]
4) Macro can still move Adobe—especially when rates are the story
Thursday’s broader market tone was shaped by inflation news. Reuters reported November CPI inflation came in below expectations (with caveats tied to government shutdown-related data issues). [22]
For high-quality software names like Adobe, rate expectations matter because they influence how investors value long-duration earnings streams.
5) Know the key scheduled U.S. data points on Friday
A widely followed calendar for Friday, Dec. 19, 2025 lists:
- Existing Home Sales (10:00 a.m. ET)
- University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, final (10:00 a.m. ET) [23]
These aren’t “Adobe-specific,” but they can shift yields and index direction—both of which can pull ADBE around, particularly on a derivatives-heavy expiration day.
The takeaway for Adobe stock into Friday’s session
Adobe goes into Friday with:
- A mild after-hours dip (not a breakdown) [24]
- A meaningful AI-video partnership catalyst (Runway + Firefly / Gen-4.5) [25]
- An active legal overhang tied to AI training data (SlimLM-related claims) [26]
- A mixed—but still upward-tilted—analyst target landscape, with consensus targets well above spot but ratings that imply “show me” skepticism [27]
- A potentially higher-volatility Friday due to the calendar (data releases + triple witching dynamics) [28]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.marketscreener.com, 8. news.adobe.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. finviz.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. finance.yahoo.com, 14. finviz.com, 15. stockanalysis.com, 16. stockanalysis.com, 17. unusualwhales.com, 18. www.britannica.com, 19. stockanalysis.com, 20. news.adobe.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.scotiabank.com, 24. stockanalysis.com, 25. news.adobe.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. www.scotiabank.com
