Gold Price Today at 1:16 p.m. ET (Dec 19, 2025): Spot Gold Holds Near $4,350 as Fed Cut Bets Clash With a Firmer Dollar

NEW YORK — December 19, 2025 — Gold prices are steady-to-firmer in Friday trade, with the market balancing a “rate-cuts-are-coming” narrative against a U.S. dollar that refuses to roll over for long.

At 1:16 p.m. ET, spot gold (XAU/USD) traded at about $4,353.42 per ounce, up roughly 0.48% on the day, after moving within a $4,309.52–$4,356.27 session range. ^[1]

A separate U.S. pricing snapshot around 1:15 p.m. New York time also showed gold around $4,354/oz, reinforcing that the metal is hovering in the mid‑$4,300s into the early afternoon. ^[2]

Gold price today: the key levels traders are watching

With gold still near record territory into year-end, the market’s focus has shifted from “is the trend up?” to “how clean is the next breakout?”

Here are the levels dominating price talk today:

Immediate resistance:$4,355–$4,356 (today’s highs and a well-advertised cap in intraday commentary) ^[3]
Near-term support:~$4,310 (today’s lower bound) and the broader $4,300 psychological level ^[4]
52‑week high area:~$4,381.60 (a reminder that upside “air pockets” can open quickly if the market clears resistance) ^[5]

The tone: gold is not collapsing on good news for risk assets, but it’s also not sprinting higher without a catalyst.

What’s moving gold on Dec 19, 2025

1) Cooling inflation keeps rate-cut expectations alive

Today’s dominant macro driver remains the view that U.S. inflation is cooling and policy can keep easing into 2026. Reuters noted that lower inflation readings have reinforced expectations of continued easing, which is typically supportive for non‑yielding assets like gold. ^[6]

The Economic Times also framed the rally as part of a broader precious-metals surge driven by cooling inflation and the market’s growing confidence that borrowing costs will fall further—reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold. ^[7]

2) A firmer dollar and higher yields are limiting the upside

Gold’s headwind today is that the U.S. dollar is firmer and Treasury yields are edging higher, a combination that can dampen demand for dollar-priced metals, especially from non‑U.S. buyers.

Reuters’ global markets report tied part of Friday’s cross‑asset moves to Japan’s latest policy shift, with the Bank of Japan raising rates and global yields responding—helping support the dollar and weighing on gold’s momentum. ^[8]

3) “Choppy, not broken”: gold is up, but not in a straight line

Gold has been nudged by supportive macro signals but held back by short-term currency and yield swings—resulting in a market that can look indecisive on the chart even while remaining structurally bid.

That’s why you’re seeing an intraday tape that’s more about holding key floors than launching a fresh surge.

Silver is stealing the spotlight, and it matters for gold

One of the most important storylines on 19.12.2025 is not just gold—it’s silver’s breakout.

Reuters reported silver surged to a fresh record, with spot silver hitting $67.20/oz in the session and remaining sharply higher on the week, fueled by investment demand and supply tightness. ^[9]

Why gold traders care:

Silver’s rally tends to pull attention (and sometimes capital) across the precious-metals complex.
Reuters quoted market voices emphasizing that when the spread between gold and silver performance gets dramatic, traders often look for gold to “catch up” in the short run. ^[10]

In other words, even if gold feels range‑bound today, silver’s strength is a supportive backdrop—especially if broader “hard asset” allocation continues into year-end.

Gold prices in India today: MCX opens softer despite global resilience

Gold’s global stability is not translating into a uniform move in local markets.

In India, MCX gold opened lower on Friday, with The Times of India reporting an opening around ₹1,34,027 per 10 grams, down about ₹494 (roughly ‑0.37%), while highlighting that traders were still watching the ₹1.34 lakh level closely. ^[11]

TOI also cited international pricing context—spot gold around the low‑$4,300s and U.S. gold futures in the mid‑$4,300s—as the day began. ^[12]

The takeaway: local price action is being shaped not only by global spot moves, but also by currency moves, premiums, and domestic positioning.

Today’s news round-up: the biggest gold headlines on Dec 19

Gold steadier for the week as rate-cut bets grow

Reuters reported spot gold around $4,346.69 late morning U.S. time and positioned for a weekly gain, supported by expectations of future Fed cuts. ^[13]

Cross-asset context: markets digest central bank moves

In a broader markets wrap, Reuters also noted spot gold in the $4,342–$4,354 neighborhood, while the dollar and yields reflected global central bank developments—especially Japan. ^[14]

Political gold headline: Italy’s central bank gold becomes a flashpoint

Not directly a price driver for today’s tape, but still notable: Reuters reported an Italian parliamentary committee approved language asserting the country’s central bank gold “belongs to the people,” despite ECB criticism—highlighting how politically sensitive sovereign gold holdings can be. ^[15]

Gold price forecast: what analysts are saying now

Even with gold already at historically elevated levels, forecasts are still being revised higher—often with the same core logic: central bank demand + policy easing + diversification flows.

Goldman Sachs: $4,900 by December 2026 (base case)

In a commodities outlook note published Dec 18, Reuters reported Goldman Sachs sees gold rising about 14% to $4,900/oz by December 2026, pointing to structurally high central bank demand and cyclical support from Fed rate cuts. ^[16]

State Street’s 2026 outlook: base $4,000–$4,500, bull $4,500–$5,000

State Street’s gold strategy team argues the 2025 surge may moderate, but still sees a supportive structure for 2026, with:

Base case:$4,000–$4,500
Bull case:$4,500–$5,000
…and a set of “structural bull cycle” forces including Fed easing, central bank/retail demand, ETF restocking, and debt concerns. ^[17]

Put simply: forecasters aren’t calling for a straight line up—but many still see the medium-term path pointing higher than lower.

Technical analysis today: where the chart points next

Friday’s technical commentary converges on one main idea: gold is bullish, but capped—until it isn’t.

FXStreet: range-bound between $4,300 and $4,355

FXStreet described gold as “treading water” between $4,300 and $4,355, with the U.S. Dollar Index firmer and price action showing hesitation (not a breakdown). ^[18]

CentralCharts: bullish above ~$4,304, targets into the $4,370s (and beyond)

A CentralCharts technical note published 12/19/2025 (GMT) framed the setup as bullish above $4,304.31, with targets around $4,339.51 and $4,370.48, and the possibility of extending higher if resistance breaks cleanly. ^[19]

Investing.com: “Strong Buy” technical summary

Investing.com’s technical dashboard showed a “Strong Buy” summary across multiple timeframes and detailed momentum readings—useful as a sentiment gauge given how crowded the trend has become. ^[20]

What to watch next: catalysts that could move gold into the close (and into 2026)

Gold’s next decisive move likely depends on whether today’s cross‑currents resolve into a single dominant theme:

U.S. dollar direction: If the dollar continues to firm, it can cap rallies; if it fades, gold can break higher quickly. ^[21]
Real yields and global rates: Moves triggered by major central banks (including Japan’s shift) can ripple into gold via the opportunity-cost channel. ^[22]
ETF/investment flows: Reuters highlighted how ETF flows are part of the current precious-metals story—especially in silver, but relevant across the complex. ^[23]
Geopolitics and policy uncertainty: These remain “evergreen” supports for gold’s role as a portfolio hedge, even when inflation is easing. ^[24]

Bottom line

At 1:16 p.m. ET on Dec 19, 2025, gold is holding near $4,353/oz, near the top of today’s range and within striking distance of key resistance. ^[25]

The market’s message is clear:

Rate-cut expectations are supportive,
A firmer dollar and shifting yields are restraining momentum,
And silver’s record run is keeping the entire precious-metals complex in the spotlight. ^[26]

If gold clears the well-watched $4,355–$4,356 ceiling convincingly, attention will quickly shift to whether the market can challenge the upper band of its recent highs. If it fails again, the story remains consolidation—bullish, but patient. ^[27]