NEW YORK — As of 4:46 p.m. ET on Friday, December 19, 2025, the U.S. stock market finished the session higher after a volatile week, with big gains in technology and semiconductors overpowering sharp declines in several consumer names. The rally came on one of the year’s busiest trading sessions—“triple witching”—when large blocks of options and futures expired, amplifying turnover and, at times, intraday swings. [1]
US stock market today: Where the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq closed
By the closing bell:
- S&P 500: 6,834.50, up 0.88%
- Nasdaq Composite: 23,307.62, up 1.31%
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: 48,134.89, up 0.38% [2]
For the week, performance was mixed: the S&P 500 rose 0.11%, the Nasdaq gained 0.48%, and the Dow fell 0.67%. [3]
Why the stock market rose: The AI trade snapped back
Friday’s advance was powered by a renewed surge in the market’s most influential theme of 2025: artificial intelligence and the infrastructure behind it.
Micron’s momentum kept rolling
A major catalyst was Micron Technology, which extended gains after upbeat forecasts earlier in the week re-energized confidence in AI-related demand. Micron ended Friday up about 7%, marking a record closing high. [4]
Nvidia climbed on chip headlines and broader semi strength
Nvidia rose 3.9%, as investors weighed Washington’s latest moves involving advanced AI chip exports. Reuters reported that the Trump administration launched an inter-agency review that could pave the way for shipments of Nvidia’s H200 chips to China—an issue with major implications for AI supply chains, revenue growth, and geopolitical risk premiums in semiconductor valuations. [5]
Oracle jumped as TikTok’s U.S. future took shape
Another high-profile driver was Oracle, which gained 6.6% after ByteDance signed binding agreements to shift control of TikTok’s U.S. operations into a new joint venture structure involving Oracle and other investors. Beyond the headline, traders focused on what the deal could mean for cloud infrastructure workloads and long-term enterprise contracts tied to U.S. data security requirements. [6]
Why trading felt “louder” than usual: Triple witching supercharged volume
Friday also brought triple witching, when stock options, index options, and index futures expire simultaneously—often leading to heavy rebalancing, hedging adjustments, and rapid intraday repositioning.
- One widely cited estimate put expirations at about $7.1 trillion in equity options. [7]
- On U.S. exchanges, share volume reached roughly 24.6 billion, far above the recent average of about 17.2 billion shares. [8]
In plain English: more activity doesn’t always mean more chaos, but it can make the tape feel unusually fast—especially when markets are already sensitive to rates, AI spending concerns, and year-end positioning.
Big movers: Winners and losers driving the story
Friday’s session was a reminder that the market is still two-speed—with capital crowding into AI-linked leaders while punishing weaker consumer and packaged-food names.
Notable gainers
- Micron: up ~7%, continued AI-driven tailwind [9]
- Nvidia: up 3.9%, semis lifted alongside export-policy headlines [10]
- Oracle: up 6.6%, boosted by TikTok U.S. joint venture agreements [11]
Notable decliners
- Nike: down 10.5% after reporting a second straight quarterly decline in gross margins, with management citing pressure tied to its China business and efforts to reset product mix. [12]
- Lamb Weston: down nearly 26% after warning of muted demand for the rest of the fiscal year. [13]
- Conagra: down about 2.5% after weak earnings and subdued consumer demand signals. [14]
Sector-wise, seven of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors finished higher, while utilities and consumer staples were among the notable laggards. [15]
Inflation and the Fed: The real “forecast engine” behind stocks
Even on a headline-heavy day, the market’s longer-term direction still revolves around one question: How quickly and how far will the Federal Reserve cut rates in 2026?
CPI cooled—but the shutdown distorted the view
A key support for risk assets this week was a November inflation report showing the Consumer Price Index up 2.7% year over year, below forecasts in a Reuters survey. Core CPI rose 2.6% year over year. However, the report came with major caveats because the 43-day federal government shutdown disrupted data collection and even led to the cancellation of October’s CPI release, making month-to-month trend analysis unusually difficult. [16]
Markets are still pricing rate cuts—but timing is debated
Reuters reporting reflected a market that continues to lean toward easing in 2026, even if there’s disagreement about the first cut’s timing:
- In rates markets, fed funds futures suggested about a 22% chance of a cut at the late-January Fed meeting and around 60% odds of a cut in March. [17]
- In equities coverage, Reuters also noted traders weighing multiple cuts next year, with some probability assigned to an early move. [18]
A fresh reminder of the Fed’s cautious posture came Friday from New York Fed President John Williams, who said in a CNBC interview that he saw no urgent need to cut again immediately after last week’s reduction, pointing to the need for clearer data. [19]
Bonds and global backdrop: Yields rose as Japan moved
While U.S. stocks climbed, Treasury yields moved higher on Friday, tracking a global bond selloff after the Bank of Japan raised rates to the highest level in decades.
- U.S. 10-year yield: about 4.151%, up 3.5 basis points on the day
- U.S. 2-year yield: about 3.486%, up 2.6 basis points [20]
The global link matters for equities: rising yields can pressure high-growth valuations, especially in tech, which is why Friday’s AI-led rally stood out—it pushed higher despite a firmer rate backdrop.
Housing check-in: Existing home sales ticked up, but the market remains tight
In economic news released Friday, U.S. existing home sales rose 0.5% in November to an annual rate of 4.13 million units. Inventory fell to 1.43 million units, and the median existing-home price increased 1.2% year over year to $409,200. The report reinforced a theme investors have watched all year: affordability remains strained, supply remains constrained, and the housing market’s recovery is likely to be uneven unless borrowing costs fall more decisively. [21]
Other market-moving headlines investors watched on Dec. 19
Even with tech leading, several additional stories shaped risk sentiment and single-stock volatility:
- Carnival surged after forecasting annual profit above estimates and reinstating its dividend, highlighting resilient travel demand. [22]
- Tesla / Elon Musk: a Delaware Supreme Court ruling reinstated Musk’s 2018 Tesla pay package—an attention-grabbing governance headline with potential implications for investor sentiment around mega-cap leadership and corporate legal risk. [23]
- Crypto-adjacent equities: Reuters reported MSCI is considering excluding companies whose digital asset holdings exceed 50% of assets from some indexes, a move that could affect passive flows into so-called bitcoin “treasury” firms. [24]
- Holiday trading logistics: major U.S. exchanges said they will remain open Dec. 24 (early close) and Dec. 26 (full day), despite a federal government closure order for those dates—important for liquidity planning into year-end. [25]
- Oil prices: crude headed for a second straight weekly decline, with Reuters citing easing supply fears and geopolitical crosscurrents; Brent traded around $59.73 and WTI around $56.02. [26]
Stock market forecast: What Wall Street is watching next week
With the final full week of December approaching, investors are effectively balancing three forces: seasonality, rates, and AI concentration risk.
1) The “Santa Claus rally” window begins Dec. 24
The classic Santa rally period—the last five trading days of the year plus the first two of January—starts Wednesday, Dec. 24, and runs through Jan. 5, 2026. Historically, the S&P 500 has risen an average of about 1.3% during that window, though history is not a promise. [27]
2) Thin liquidity can exaggerate moves
Between the holiday schedule and the triple witching reset, liquidity can get patchy. That can mean calm sessions—or, occasionally, outsized swings on seemingly modest headlines. Reuters also flagged the possibility that post-expiration positioning can leave markets “more vulnerable” after Christmas, as hedges roll off and dealers rebalance exposure. [28]
3) A delayed data dump could reshape the Fed narrative
Reuters highlighted that investors are still digesting economic data delayed by the shutdown and are now preparing for additional major releases, including Q3 GDP, durable goods orders, and consumer confidence, all of which could influence rate expectations into early 2026. [29]
4) Watch the bond market—and the global rate story
Next week also brings sizable Treasury auctions totaling about $183 billion in 2-, 5-, and 7-year notes, and global yields remain sensitive after Japan’s rate hike. If yields climb further, equity leadership could narrow again—making the market more dependent on a small group of mega-cap tech winners. [30]
Bottom line
At 4:46 p.m. ET, the U.S. stock market today ended on a constructive note: a tech-and-AI rebound lifted the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, even as Nike’s sharp drop and heavy triple witching flows made for a noisy session. The next phase of the year-end story is likely to hinge on whether cooling inflation (despite data distortions) keeps the Fed on a cutting path in 2026, and whether the market can broaden beyond a handful of AI-linked giants as holiday liquidity thins. [31]
References
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