Gold prices are holding near record territory on Friday, December 19, 2025, as traders weigh a softer U.S. inflation print and rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts against a U.S. dollar that remains stubbornly firm. At 4:48 p.m. New York time (UTC-05:00), spot gold was $4,338.20 per ounce, with 24K gold around $139.48 per gram. [1]
While today’s move looks modest on the surface, it lands in the middle of a much bigger story: gold has already delivered a blockbuster 2025 performance, and the market is now debating whether the rally can extend into 2026—or whether prices consolidate after such a powerful run. [2]
Gold price today at 4:48 PM ET: spot, gram, and key benchmarks
Here’s where the gold price stood in late U.S. trade:
- Spot gold:$4,338.20/oz (4:48 PM ET) [3]
- Gold (24K):$139.48/gram [4]
- Gold (22K):$127.85/gram [5]
- Gold (18K):$104.61/gram [6]
Earlier in the afternoon, spot gold traded higher: Reuters reported $4,347.07/oz at 2:17 p.m. ET, and gold still finished the week with a gain as markets leaned into the “cuts are coming” narrative for 2026. [7]
On the futures side, U.S. gold futures settled at $4,387.3 (per Reuters), highlighting the market’s sensitivity to shifting expectations around rates, the dollar, and risk sentiment. [8]
Why gold moved today: inflation cooled, but the dollar stayed firm
The day’s macro headline was U.S. inflation: Reuters noted U.S. consumer prices rose 2.7% year-on-year in November, below economists’ expectations cited in the report. That softer inflation reading helped reinforce the idea that the Fed can keep easing in 2026. [9]
But gold didn’t simply rip higher, because the other side of the equation—the dollar and yields—didn’t fully cooperate:
- In broader markets, Reuters reported the U.S. dollar index at 98.62, with the dollar supported in part by a weaker yen after the Bank of Japan raised rates and signaled the possibility of more tightening. [10]
- U.S. Treasury yields also edged up alongside global yields (another headwind for non-yielding assets like gold). [11]
That push-pull explains today’s “steady-to-slightly lower” feel in gold: cooling inflation supports rate-cut expectations (bullish), while a firmer dollar and resilient yields can cap upside in the short run (bearish). [12]
Silver stole the spotlight—and that matters for gold sentiment
One of the most important cross-currents on December 19 wasn’t gold at all—it was silver.
Reuters reported silver hit a record intraday high of $67.45/oz, ending the session around $67.14/oz, with the move tied to a combination of investment demand and supply tightness. [13]
Why does that matter for gold?
- In today’s commentary, Reuters quoted market voices describing gold and silver as highly correlated, with silver leading recently—and that can pull attention (and flows) toward precious metals broadly. [14]
- Goldpricez’s snapshot at 4:48 PM ET also showed silver at $67.16, keeping the “precious metals strength” theme intact into the close. [15]
India gold rate today: MCX prices dip, while physical demand faces sticker shock
In India, domestic pricing stayed elevated even as the day’s direction turned slightly lower.
Financial Express reported that on December 19, 2025, 24K gold in India was ₹133,730 per 10 grams and 22K gold was ₹122,586 per 10 grams, both down 0.56% from the prior close in its update. [16]
The same report highlighted a notable premium versus Dubai—India’s gold price was cited as roughly 18.54% higher than Dubai on that day (before fees, duties, and taxes), underscoring how domestic buyers are dealing with elevated prices. [17]
On the trading/technical side, The Times of India’s market note said MCX gold February futures were near ₹1,34,100, with analysts pointing to resistance in the ₹1,34,000–₹1,34,600 zone and supports around ₹1,33,000 and ₹1,32,500. [18]
Meanwhile, the Economic Times reported that India’s gold demand is expected to fall as prices surge, even as investment-related buying rises—a pattern consistent with what typically happens when jewelry demand gets priced out but investors still seek hedges and diversification. [19]
The big question now: what do 2026 forecasts say for gold?
After a year packed with new highs, forecasters are increasingly focused on whether gold can hold these levels—or push toward the next psychological milestone.
Major bank calls: $4,450 to $4,900 (and higher in bullish scenarios)
- Goldman Sachs sees gold rising to $4,900/oz by December 2026 in its base case, citing structurally strong central-bank demand and cyclical support from Fed rate cuts. [20]
- Deutsche Bank raised its 2026 forecast to $4,450/oz, outlining a $3,950–$4,950 range for next year and keeping a $5,150 forecast for 2027. [21]
The “$5,000 gold” conversation is no longer fringe
Reuters reported that some analysts—JP Morgan, Bank of America, and consultancy Metals Focus—see bullion reaching $5,000/oz in 2026, with central-bank reserve diversification described as a key foundation for the market. [22]
State Street Global Advisors (SSGA) also framed a similar debate: it expects the 2025 surge to moderate, with gold potentially consolidating in a $4,000–$4,500 zone, but it still assigns a meaningful probability to an upside run toward $5,000/oz in 2026 under supportive conditions. [23]
World Gold Council: rangebound isn’t bearish—it’s realistic after a huge run
The World Gold Council’s 2026 outlook argues that gold’s 2025 performance was fueled by uncertainty, dollar dynamics, and momentum—and that 2026 could be more rangebound if macro conditions broadly match consensus. But it also notes gold can post moderate gains if growth slows and rates fall further, and it can perform strongly in a sharper downturn with rising global risks. [24]
What to watch next: the catalysts that could move gold quickly
Gold can drift for days—and then move violently on a handful of triggers. After today’s inflation-driven reassessment, traders will likely keep these in focus:
- Fed path for 2026: the market is leaning toward multiple cuts next year, and any repricing (fewer cuts, later cuts, or more cuts) can hit gold quickly. [25]
- Dollar direction: today’s firm USD backdrop mattered. Continued dollar strength can cap gold rallies; renewed weakness can magnify them. [26]
- Central-bank demand and ETF flows: both remain central to the 2026 bull-case narrative laid out by banks and strategists. [27]
- Geopolitics and fiscal headlines: from European funding decisions to broader geopolitical risk, the “uncertainty premium” is still part of the gold story. [28]
Bottom line
As of 4:48 PM ET on December 19, 2025, gold remains firmly in the $4,300s, balancing a supportive rate-cut narrative against a dollar that hasn’t broken down. [29]
The bigger takeaway for readers tracking “gold price today” isn’t the small intraday wiggle—it’s that 2026 forecasts are now clustering in historically high territory, with major institutions laying out scenarios that range from consolidation around $4,000–$4,500 to renewed upside that could test $5,000/oz if central-bank buying, investor diversification, and Fed easing remain aligned. [30]
References
1. goldpricez.com, 2. www.gold.org, 3. goldpricez.com, 4. goldpricez.com, 5. goldpricez.com, 6. goldpricez.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. goldpricez.com, 16. www.financialexpress.com, 17. www.financialexpress.com, 18. timesofindia.indiatimes.com, 19. m.economictimes.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.ssga.com, 24. www.gold.org, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. goldpricez.com, 30. www.ssga.com
