Nike, Inc. (NYSE: NKE) ended Friday, December 19, 2025, under heavy pressure as investors digested the company’s latest quarterly update and what it signals for the all-important holiday quarter. After the closing bell, Nike shares were last seen around $58.71, marking a roughly 10.5% one-day drop from the prior close, after trading as low as $57.82 during the session. [1]
This wasn’t a “missed earnings” story in the traditional sense. Nike’s fiscal Q2 results beat headline expectations, but the market reaction was dominated by concerns about margin compression, China’s ongoing weakness, and softer near-term guidance—the exact mix that tends to hit large consumer brands when investors are demanding visibility. [2]
One important timing note: U.S. stock markets are closed on weekends, so there is no regular-session “open tomorrow” (Saturday, Dec. 20). The next regular session is Monday, Dec. 22, with standard U.S. trading hours running 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET (and extended hours depending on broker access). [3]
Nike stock price check after the bell: where NKE stands heading into the weekend
- After-hours/last trade (Friday evening): about $58.71
- Day move: about -10.5%
- Intraday range:$57.82 to $60.35
- Volume: about 108.5 million shares, signaling intense repositioning
Broader markets were positive Friday, which made Nike’s slide stand out even more. Reuters highlighted that major indexes rose as tech rebounded, while Nike sank on its China and margin issues—against a backdrop of “triple witching” that can amplify volume and volatility. [4]
The catalyst: Nike’s fiscal Q2 2026 results were “good enough” on revenue, but not on the story investors wanted
Nike reported fiscal second-quarter results for the period ending Nov. 30, 2025, with revenue up 1% to $12.427 billion. But profitability weakened sharply: net income fell 32% to $792 million, and gross margin dropped 300 basis points to 40.6%. [5]
Key highlights from Nike’s release:
- Revenue:$12.4B, +1% [6]
- Diluted EPS:$0.53, -32% [7]
- Gross margin:40.6%, down 300 bps (Nike cites higher tariffs in North America as a primary driver) [8]
- Wholesale revenue:$7.5B, +8% [9]
- NIKE Direct revenue:$4.6B, -8%, driven by a 14% decline in NIKE Brand Digital [10]
- Converse revenue:$300M, -30% [11]
- Inventories:$7.7B, -3% [12]
The market’s takeaway: Nike is showing pockets of demand and partner momentum, but it’s paying for the reset through lower margins and weaker direct/digital performance—and investors want clearer timing on when the pain ends. [13]
China is still the pressure point—and the numbers didn’t get easier this quarter
Nike’s biggest single-region concern remains Greater China, where revenue fell 17% to $1.423 billion. Within that, footwear revenue dropped 21% year over year—an especially painful datapoint for a brand where footwear is the flagship engine. [14]
Reuters underscored that this was Nike’s sixth consecutive quarterly sales decline in China, and reported that CEO Elliott Hill signaled the company needs to “reset” its China approach—while also facing intensifying competition from domestic brands such as Anta and Li-Ning. [15]
Business Insider added a key layer to today’s debate: beyond macro and competition, some retail analysts argue Nike is struggling with cultural relevance among Chinese Gen Z, as local players capitalize on the “Guochao” movement and digital-native engagement on platforms like WeChat and Douyin. [16]
Why this matters for the stock:
- China has been a high-margin growth engine historically. When it weakens for multiple quarters, it doesn’t just drag sales—it can distort the whole turnaround timeline. [17]
- Management and analysts can explain near-term weakness as “by design” (inventory resets, fewer promos), but the market wants proof that demand stabilizes without heavy discounting. [18]
Margin compression: tariffs + promotions + channel mix are hitting profitability
Investors have been watching Nike’s gross margin like a scoreboard, and this quarter moved in the wrong direction.
Nike said gross margin fell 300 bps to 40.6%, primarily due to higher tariffs in North America. [19]
Reuters also reported that CFO Matthew Friend reiterated expectations that U.S. tariffs tied to Southeast Asian imports—where much of Nike’s manufacturing sits—could cost the company about $1.5 billion this year, reinforcing tariffs as an ongoing headwind rather than a one-quarter problem. [20]
Add in the channel mix:
- Wholesale is growing (good for rebuilding distribution and shelf presence)
- But wholesale often comes with lower margins than direct channels, especially when Nike is simultaneously clearing older inventory [21]
That combination can make the turnaround feel “real” operationally—yet still look ugly in the income statement.
Nike’s forward outlook: the holiday quarter guidance is what spooked the market
The market reaction on Dec. 19 wasn’t just about what Nike reported—it was about what Nike signaled.
Reuters reported that Nike expects third-quarter revenue (which includes the December holiday period) to be down in the low-single digits, and that management expects another gross margin decline of roughly 175–225 basis points in the current quarter. [22]
Investopedia emphasized that while Nike beat profit expectations, investors focused on the weaker-than-expected outlook and the warning that China headwinds could persist for the rest of the fiscal year before returning to growth. [23]
In plain terms: Nike is telling the Street that the turnaround is still underway, but the next quarter is likely to show more evidence of transition costs than clean acceleration.
Analyst reactions today: price targets came down—yet several firms stayed constructive
Today’s analyst notes largely had the same shape: near-term caution, but not universal capitulation.
Some of the notable updates published Friday:
- BofA Securities: maintained Buy, cut price target to $73 from $84, citing ongoing China challenges and pressure from innovation/store fleet issues (per Investing.com’s summary of the note). [24]
- Truist: kept Buy, cut target to $70 from $85, pointing to China/Converse underperformance and a bumpier outlook even with “green shoots” in running and partner expansion. [25]
- Needham: maintained Buy, cut target to $68 from $78. [26]
- Stifel: kept Hold, cut target to $65 from $68, acknowledging uneven recovery and the guidance miss, while viewing longer-term EBIT margin ambitions as achievable but harder to underwrite at current valuation. [27]
What this tells you ahead of the next session:
- Expect Monday’s premarket narrative to be driven heavily by follow-on analyst commentary (upgrades/downgrades, target cascades, and refreshed models).
- Watch for whether the Street frames the selloff as a capitulation flush or as a new base case of “longer turnaround, lower margins.” [28]
What to know before the next market open
Because regular U.S. trading does not reopen until Monday, Dec. 22, the setup for Nike stock will be shaped by what happens over the weekend—especially in headlines and in analyst model updates. [29]
Here are the key items to track:
1) Any incremental news on tariffs or U.S.-Asia trade policy
Tariffs were explicitly flagged as a meaningful cost headwind in today’s coverage, and Nike itself pointed to higher tariffs as a key driver of margin decline. Any weekend policy headline can feed directly into Monday’s tape. [30]
2) China narrative: demand, competition, and “brand heat”
Investors will be listening for a clearer message on how Nike plans to re-accelerate in China—and how fast. Reuters reported management declined to give a clean timetable, which leaves the market sensitive to every new datapoint and interpretation. [31]
3) Further analyst target changes and rating actions
Friday brought multiple target cuts. That wave can continue into Monday morning as more desks publish updates. The direction matters less than the tone: are analysts saying “valuation is now compelling,” or “we still don’t have the bottom”? [32]
4) Liquidity and calendar effects in the Christmas week
The coming week includes holiday schedule changes: U.S. markets are scheduled for an early close on Dec. 24 and closed on Dec. 25—conditions that can affect liquidity and amplify moves in heavily traded names. [33]
5) The technical backdrop: a sharp drop into multi-month lows
Reuters noted Nike closed Friday at $58.71, its lowest level in seven months, with the stock down sharply year-to-date. Separately, market data outlets cited a 52-week range that puts added focus on whether the stock can hold above the low-$50s area if volatility continues. [34]
Bottom line
Nike stock’s Friday selloff was a clear message from the market: beating estimates isn’t enough when the forward story includes margin pressure, continued China erosion, and softer holiday-quarter guidance.
Going into the next trading session (Monday, Dec. 22), the key question for NKE investors won’t be “Did Nike beat?”—it will be: Is this the messy middle of a turnaround that’s working, or evidence the turnaround takes longer and costs more than the market is willing to discount today? [35]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.fidelity.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. investors.nike.com, 6. investors.nike.com, 7. investors.nike.com, 8. investors.nike.com, 9. investors.nike.com, 10. investors.nike.com, 11. investors.nike.com, 12. investors.nike.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. investors.nike.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.businessinsider.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. investors.nike.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.investopedia.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.tipranks.com, 26. www.marketbeat.com, 27. www.tipranks.com, 28. www.tipranks.com, 29. www.fidelity.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.investing.com, 33. www.nasdaq.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.reuters.com
