Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK) finished Friday’s regular session (Dec. 19, 2025) modestly higher, then eased slightly in after-hours trading as investors digested a headline-heavy day featuring U.S. drug-pricing policy moves and FDA acceleration for two major Merck pipeline assets.
Below is what happened after the bell, why it matters, and the key items to track before the next U.S. market open (Monday, Dec. 22, 2025).
MRK stock price after the bell: the key numbers
Merck shares closed at $101.09, up $0.40 (+0.40%) on Friday. [1]
In after-hours trading, MRK was slightly lower, trading around $100.9–$101.0 in early evening updates (a fractional dip of roughly 0.1%–0.2% from the close). [2]
Other notable tape items from Friday’s session:
- Day range: about $100.11 to $102.19 [3]
- Volume: roughly 43.6 million shares, far above typical recent daily activity [4]
- 52-week range:$73.31 to $105.84 [5]
That elevated volume is consistent with a market reacting to the day’s big catalyst: the Trump administration’s latest drug-pricing agreements involving Merck and other major pharma companies.
Why Merck stock moved: the Trump drug-pricing agreement and tariff relief
What was announced
On Friday, President Donald Trump and nine pharmaceutical companies finalized agreements aimed at reducing prices for certain drugs—particularly for Medicaid and cash-paying consumers—as part of a “most-favored-nation” (MFN) pricing push to narrow the U.S. pricing gap versus other wealthy countries. Merck was among the companies named in Reuters and AP coverage. [6]
A key structure of these deals is a shift toward direct-to-consumer (DTC) purchases (bypassing traditional intermediaries) through the newly publicized federal platform TrumpRx.gov, alongside broad commitments around future launch pricing. [7]
What Merck specifically said it will do
Merck’s own announcement (timestamped Friday afternoon) described an agreement designed to “expand access” and “lower costs,” including:
- Offering JANUVIA and JANUMET (and related products) at ~70% discounts through a direct-to-patient approach for eligible Americans
- Planning to expand the program in the future (including enlicitide decanoate, pending FDA approval)
- Committing more than $70 billion in U.S. investments tied to manufacturing and innovation [8]
Reuters reported that, in exchange for these types of commitments, participating companies receive a three-year exemption/delay from certain new tariffs, reducing a near-term overhang for the group. [9]
Why markets didn’t panic (and why investors may have even been relieved)
Drug-pricing headlines often pressure large pharma, but Friday’s market response looked more like uncertainty coming off the table—at least temporarily. Barron’s noted that investors viewed the framework as limiting disruption while still letting companies “appear” responsive on pricing, and Reuters emphasized the tariff angle and the broad industry participation. [10]
That said, the long-term impact remains debated. Washington Post coverage highlighted skepticism from critics and legal/policy questions—particularly around how far executive-branch tools can go in reshaping pricing and the associated incentive structures. [11]
What this means for MRK into the next session: Investors will likely treat this as a “details matter” story—watching how much of the discounting hits volume that Merck would have captured anyway, versus incremental cash-pay demand that is additive.
Second major catalyst: FDA fast-track vouchers for two Merck pipeline assets
In a separate, market-relevant development on Friday, the U.S. FDA granted national priority review vouchers to Merck for two investigational medicines:
- Enlicitide (a cholesterol-lowering pill targeting PCSK9)
- sac-TMT (a cancer therapy / antibody-drug conjugate candidate) [12]
Reuters reported that the program can compress review timelines from the typical 10–12 months down to roughly 1–2 months in qualifying cases. [13]
Why investors care
- Enlicitide is positioned as a potential oral alternative in a space dominated by injectable PCSK9 drugs (Reuters cited competition like Amgen’s PCSK9 franchise). [14]
- sac-TMT is being advanced across multiple cancers, and Reuters has previously pointed to significant sales potential for these candidates and noted Merck’s partnership structure (including a Blackstone Life Sciences funding agreement and collaboration tied to Sichuan Kelun-Biotech). [15]
What this means for MRK into the next session: Fast-track mechanics can matter most when investors start to model timing—i.e., whether key filings and potential decisions move earlier on the calendar, and how that interacts with Merck’s broader need to offset future patent cliffs.
The broader Medicare pricing backdrop investors are watching
Friday’s drug-pricing narrative didn’t stop at the White House deals.
CMS announced new Medicare pilot programs
Reuters reported that CMS announced two pilot programs intended to align some Medicare drug payments more closely with international reference pricing, with timelines extending into 2026–2031 and beyond depending on the program. [16]
Axios noted the proposals and described projected government savings and a public comment window running into February 2026. [17]
A separate report: Medicare out-of-pocket costs could fall for some drugs in 2026
Reuters also highlighted a report suggesting Medicare enrollees could pay about 50% less out-of-pocket in 2026 for certain drugs under Inflation Reduction Act provisions and plan design changes, naming Merck’s Januvia among the drugs discussed and referencing a new annual out-of-pocket cap. [18]
Why it matters for Merck:
Even if Friday’s TrumpRx/DTC framework is viewed as “manageable,” investors continue to weigh the multi-year drift toward structural pricing pressure—especially on older primary-care brands.
Today’s forecasts and analyses: what Wall Street (and the market) is signaling
Analyst price targets and consensus view
MarketBeat’s current compilation shows Merck with a consensus “Hold”, an average 12‑month price target of $110.13, and a target range running from $85 (low) to $130 (high). [19]
MarketBeat also flags that BMO Capital Markets upgraded Merck on Dec. 18 and raised its target to $130 from $82 (one of the more dramatic recent moves on the name). [20]
How to interpret this going into Monday: A “Hold” consensus with meaningful dispersion in targets usually signals the market is split between:
- confidence in Merck’s pipeline and capital return profile, and
- concern about product-specific headwinds and policy-driven pricing risk.
Fundamental debate: Keytruda, Gardasil, and the “next leg” of growth
A widely-circulated Zacks/Nasdaq analysis posted Friday put the bull/bear framing in plain terms:
- Keytruda remains the central earnings engine, with the piece citing $23.3B in sales in the first nine months of 2025 and highlighting the looming loss of exclusivity in 2028 as the big strategic test. [21]
- Gardasil was cited as another major pressure point, with the same analysis pointing to a sharp year-over-year decline in 2025 tied to weakness in China and Japan demand trends. [22]
- The write-up also discussed the IRA’s impact on diabetes brands such as Januvia/Janumet, reinforcing why Friday’s pricing headlines hit directly at one of Merck’s most policy-exposed categories. [23]
In other words, Friday’s policy news is landing on a stock already trading on a multi-year transition story: replacing (or extending) blockbuster revenue streams as older products face both patent and pricing compression.
What to know before the next market open (Monday, Dec. 22)
Here are the most important items for investors and traders monitoring MRK into the next session:
1) Are Friday’s pricing deals truly margin-negative—or mostly channel shift?
The biggest open question is whether TrumpRx-style direct purchase meaningfully cannibalizes existing reimbursed demand, or mainly targets a smaller cash-pay population. Barron’s pointed out that insured consumers may still find traditional channels cheaper, suggesting the financial impact may be limited even if the headlines are loud. [24]
2) Watch for follow-through headlines and “implementation details”
Deals that look clean in a press conference can get messy in implementation. Expect investor focus on:
- which products are included,
- eligibility definitions,
- timing of discounts, and
- how enforcement works (especially for MFN-type launch commitments). [25]
3) FDA acceleration is real—but milestones still matter
The FDA voucher news is a positive “option value” story, but the stock reaction will depend on:
- when Merck files for enlicitide and sac‑TMT,
- what labels and indications are targeted, and
- whether the accelerated pathways translate into earlier revenue (or just earlier clarity). [26]
4) Key dates: earnings and dividend
Two calendar items worth keeping on the radar:
- Q4 2025 earnings call: scheduled for Feb. 3, 2026 (9:00 a.m. ET) [27]
- Dividend: Merck declared a $0.85/share quarterly dividend payable Jan. 8, 2026 (record date Dec. 15, 2025). [28]
5) Technical context: MRK is still below its recent high
With MRK closing near $101, the stock remains below its $105.84 52-week high—meaning the market still hasn’t fully “reset” to peak optimism levels after 2025’s volatility. [29]
Bottom line: Merck ends the week higher, but the next move hinges on policy details and pipeline timing
Merck stock closed Friday at $101.09 and dipped slightly after hours—hardly a dramatic move, but the news flow was anything but quiet. [30]
The market is trying to price two opposing forces at once:
- Near-term policy headline risk (drug pricing reforms, Medicare pilots, channel shifts)
- Long-term pipeline execution (accelerated FDA pathways, next-generation assets) in the shadow of Keytruda’s 2028 cliff [31]
References
1. www.zacks.com, 2. www.zacks.com, 3. www.merck.com, 4. www.merck.com, 5. www.merck.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.merck.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.barrons.com, 11. www.washingtonpost.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.axios.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. www.nasdaq.com, 22. www.nasdaq.com, 23. www.nasdaq.com, 24. www.barrons.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.merck.com, 28. www.merck.com, 29. www.merck.com, 30. www.zacks.com, 31. www.reuters.com
