Commonwealth Bank of Australia Stock (ASX:CBA): Latest Share Price, News, Analyst Forecasts and 2026 Outlook (20 Dec 2025)

Commonwealth Bank of Australia stock (ASX:CBA) heads into the final stretch of 2025 with a familiar split-screen story: resilient day-to-day trading support on the ASX, but a valuation debate that refuses to go away.

Because 20 December 2025 is a Saturday, Australian equities aren’t trading today. The most recent on-market reference point is Friday, 19 December 2025, when CBA closed at A$157.75, up +1.77% on the day, with reported volume around 5.81 million shares. ^[1]

That late-week strength came as the broader market finished higher, with Market Index flagging a rebound led by tech and banks and explicitly calling out CBA (+1.8%) among the major banks. ^[2]

CBA share price snapshot: where Commonwealth Bank stock stands heading into year-end

Using the latest available close (19 Dec 2025), here are the numbers investors are anchoring to:

Last close:A$157.75 (19 Dec 2025) ^[3]
52‑week range:A$140.21 to A$192.00 ^[4]
Market capitalisation: about A$263.76 billion (as of 19 Dec 2025) ^[5]
P/E ratio: about 26.11 (as of 19 Dec 2025, per GuruFocus) ^[6]

The shape of the year matters for sentiment. From the 52‑week high near A$192, the stock is down roughly 18%, even after December’s firmer sessions—yet it still trades at multiples that keep analysts arguing about how much “quality” is already in the price. ^[7]

The biggest near-term driver: interest rates are on hold, but the narrative is turning

CBA is fundamentally a spread business. When the rate outlook shifts, bank stocks usually notice.

The Reserve Bank of Australia held the cash rate at 3.60% at its December 2025 meeting. ^[8]
The RBA’s official series also shows the cash rate at 3.60% effective 10 Dec 2025, unchanged from prior decisions in late 2025. ^[9]
ABC coverage noted the next RBA meeting is not until 2–3 February 2026, implying at least a short window of rate stability. ^[10]

What’s changed into late December isn’t the cash rate itself—it’s the direction of travel investors are gaming out for 2026. In CBA’s own newsroom content, CBA economists now expect a 0.25 percentage point rate rise in February (to help bring inflation under control, per their framing). ^[11]

For Commonwealth Bank stock, that sets up an interesting tension:

Higher rates can support margins (depending on deposit competition and pass-through),
but higher rates can also raise credit stress risk at the edges of the loan book, especially after a long period of cost-of-living pressure.

What’s in the news now: compliance, technology, and the “price vs quality” debate

1) ACCC/Consumer Data Right penalty and remediation timeline

One of the clearest CBA-specific headlines in December is regulatory: CBA entered an Administrative Resolution with the ACCC and paid A$792,000 in penalties tied to alleged Consumer Data Right (CDR) rule contraventions. ^[12]

CBA’s statement says it identified and voluntarily reported the issue, and that impacted customers may have been unable to share certain data; it also says the bank expects to begin contacting affected customers from the week commencing 19 January 2026 regarding remediation eligibility. ^[13]

From a share-price perspective, the dollar amount is not existential. The bigger issue for investors is what it implies about:

ongoing compliance cost,
operational complexity as “open banking” expands,
and the risk of repeat enforcement across the sector.

2) AI rollout at scale: productivity story (and cost story)

CBA has also been pushing hard into productivity tooling. OpenAI published a case study dated 9 December 2025 describing CBA rolling out ChatGPT Enterprise across nearly 50,000 employees, aiming to make AI a core capability across the workforce rather than a limited pilot. ^[14]

Strategically, this matters because cost-to-income is one of the few levers that could justify premium valuation—if management can demonstrate durable efficiency gains without creating new operational risk.

3) New Zealand capital settings: a potential tailwind via ASB

CBA’s exposure isn’t only Australia. In New Zealand, Reuters reported the Reserve Bank of New Zealand would lower some capital requirements, with the top four Australian-owned banks in NZ—including ASB (part of CBA)—moving to 12% common equity tier 1 (CET1) from 16%, while other elements of the framework change. ^[15]

Reuters also reported the central bank estimated the changes could reduce average funding costs by 12 basis points, with implementation stretching out toward 2028. ^[16]
This is not a “tomorrow” catalyst, but it is the kind of slow-burn structural factor equity analysts fold into multi-year profitability assumptions.

4) Alleged loan fraud case linked to former banker: reputational and control focus

The Australian reported (via its published summary) that a former CBA and NAB banker was charged with multiple offences linked to an alleged loan fraud scheme, with the report stating CBA discovered the fraud and dismissed the banker in 2022. ^[17]
Even when not financially material to group earnings, these stories keep investor focus on controls, monitoring, and operational risk—especially at a time when banks are under pressure to prevent scams and fraud.

Fundamentals check: earnings strength, margin pressure, and credit quality

FY25 results set a high bar

CBA’s most recent full-year scorecard (FY25) was strong in absolute terms:

Reuters reported FY25 cash earnings of A$10.25 billion. ^[18]
It also reported a record full-year dividend payout of A$4.85 per share, including a final dividend of A$2.60 per share. ^[19]
Reuters reported net interest margin (NIM) of 2.08% and a CET1 ratio of 12.3% at that time. ^[20]

But FY25 also reinforced the central argument bears keep making: the bank may be excellent, yet the stock can still be expensive. Reuters quoted fund managers saying valuation looked disconnected from growth/ROE, and noted CBA’s size in the index can mechanically attract flows. ^[21]

Q1 FY26 trading update: the margin squeeze storyline returns

In the first-quarter FY26 update (July–September), Reuters reported:

Q1 cash profit of A$2.6 billion (up 2% year-on-year) ^[22]
Operating costs up 4% (wages and tech costs) ^[23]
Margin pressure from deposit switching, competition, and a lower cash-rate environment, with the bank not disclosing the NIM figure in that update. ^[24]

There are also granular credit and balance sheet datapoints that matter because they shape the “soft landing vs nasty surprise” debate:

Home lending expanded A$9.3 billion in the quarter; household deposits rose A$17.8 billion ^[25]
The bank set aside A$220 million for potential loan losses (Reuters described this as 9 bps of the loan book) ^[26]
Overdue home loans were 0.66% of the portfolio; problem business loans 0.94% of total corporate lending ^[27]

In plain English: credit stress exists, but it’s not screaming. The bigger near-term earnings variable is still margin and competition.

Analyst forecasts and price targets: why “Strong Sell” keeps showing up

Here’s where the story gets spicy (in a calm, spreadsheet kind of way).

On Investing.com’s consensus page for CBA:

it lists 14 analysts with an average target of A$121.62, a high estimate of A$146, and a low estimate around A$99.81, and labels the consensus as “Strong Sell.” ^[28]

TradingView shows a similar ballpark, listing a price target around A$124.37, with the same high/low band (A$146 / A$99.81) and an overall “strong sell” style rating derived from recent analyst inputs. ^[29]

That gap between the market price (~A$158) and consensus targets (~A$122–124) is why CBA remains one of the most hotly debated blue chips on the ASX.

What major bearish notes are pointing to

A few examples of the caution showing up in published research summaries:

UBS reiterated a Sell rating with a A$125 target, arguing that to justify the premium valuation the bank would likely need more dramatic productivity and cost outcomes than are realistic near term; UBS flagged the cost-to-income ratio as a critical yardstick. ^[30]
Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a Sell rating and A$130.18 target, pointing to valuation stretch and the idea that the rally had been driven largely by multiple expansion. ^[31]
Morningstar’s view (as reported by Investor Daily earlier in 2025) put a fair value estimate around A$98 and projected margins stabilising around ~2.1% by FY2025–26, with long-run cost control gradually improving the cost/income ratio. ^[32]

Even in a world where forecasts differ, there’s a consistent through-line: analysts aren’t usually calling CBA a bad bank—just an expensive stock.

Why CBA can trade “too expensive” for longer than critics expect

If the bear case is “valuation mean reversion,” the bull case is basically “yes, but what if the mean is changing?”

Reasons CBA’s premium can persist longer than valuation models predict include:

Index gravity and liquidity: CBA is one of the most-owned and most-traded Australian companies, which can keep demand deep even when valuation looks stretched. Reuters explicitly noted its large share of the market index as a structural factor. ^[33]
Asset quality and franchise strength: Credit metrics in the latest trading update looked contained, and CBA remains central to Australian housing and transaction banking. ^[34]
Operational leverage via technology: The AI rollout story is not just PR—it’s a signal to investors that management is chasing productivity at scale. If that translates into measurable cost outcomes, it can defend a higher multiple. ^[35]

That said, premium valuations can be unforgiving. When a stock is priced for near-perfection, it doesn’t take a catastrophe to cause pain—sometimes it only takes “good, not great.”

The next big catalysts: CBA’s February results and 2026 dividend timetable

If you’re tracking Commonwealth Bank stock into 2026, the company’s official calendar gives clear, market-moving dates:

Half-year results & interim dividend announcement:11 February 2026 ^[36]
Ex-dividend date (interim dividend):18 February 2026 ^[37]
Record date (interim dividend):19 February 2026 ^[38]
Interim dividend payment date:30 March 2026 (on or around) ^[39]
Full-year results & final dividend announcement:12 August 2026 ^[40]

These dates matter because they’re the moments when CBA can either:

prove the premium is still deserved (via margin resilience, costs, and credit),
or confirm the bear thesis (solid bank, but earnings not strong enough to justify the multiple).

Outlook for Commonwealth Bank of Australia stock: the 2026 setup

As of 20 December 2025, the cleanest way to frame CBA is this:

The fundamentals are not broken. FY25 was record-strong by several measures, and Q1 FY26 didn’t show a credit blow-up. ^[41]
The margin narrative is fragile. Competition and deposit dynamics are pressuring NIM, and costs are rising with wage and technology spend. ^[42]
The valuation debate is the main event. With the stock around A$158 and many published consensus targets clustered closer to A$120–125, any disappointment can matter more than usual. ^[43]
Macro is back in play. The RBA is holding at 3.60% for now, but CBA economists publicly expect a February hike—exactly the kind of pivot that can move bank stocks quickly. ^[44]

None of that guarantees what CBA shares will do next—markets are allergic to certainty. But it does explain why the stock remains permanently newsworthy: it’s a high-quality franchise priced like a high-quality franchise, and investors are continuously re-negotiating what that quality is worth.

References

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BHP Group Ltd Stock (BHP): Latest News, Key Risks, and 2026 Forecasts as of Dec. 20, 2025

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