Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ: NBIS) stock is ending the week with a loud reminder that the “AI infrastructure” trade is still very much alive—and still extremely volatile. Shares jumped roughly 14.6% on Friday, Dec. 19, to around $89.46 after closing near $78 the prior session, with trading volume running above typical levels. [1]
That move follows a choppy stretch for “neocloud” names (specialist GPU cloud providers) as investors debate whether the sector’s growth is worth the capital intensity—and debt risk—required to build it. Nebius is sitting right in the blast radius of that debate, because the company is simultaneously (1) rolling out cutting-edge NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra capacity and new AI cloud tooling and (2) spending aggressively to meet demand from hyperscalers and AI-native customers. [2]
Below is a detailed look at the latest Nebius headlines, the key financial and strategic milestones behind NBIS stock, and the most-cited forecasts and analyst targets circulating as of Dec. 20, 2025.
What is Nebius Group—and why NBIS stock has become a 2025 AI bellwether
Nebius is an Amsterdam-headquartered AI infrastructure company building “full-stack” cloud services optimized for intensive AI workloads—compute, storage, managed services, and tooling designed for training and inference. The company is listed on Nasdaq under the ticker NBIS. [3]
Nebius also controls or owns several adjacent businesses and stakes. In its Q3 2025 results materials, the company described consolidated results that include: Nebius (core AI infrastructure), Avride (autonomous vehicle platform), and TripleTen (edtech), and it also noted equity stakes including ClickHouse and Toloka. [4]
For many market participants, Nebius has become one of the most visible public proxies for a simple, high-stakes question: how valuable is scarce, AI-grade compute when everyone—from startups to Big Tech—wants more GPUs than exist? Reuters has described Nebius as Europe’s biggest “neocloud” provider, competing both with other specialists and with hyperscalers like Amazon and Google. [5]
A major part of the company’s modern market narrative is its corporate reset. Commentary in December 2025 noted that Nebius was once known as Yandex, later divested Russian assets, kept non-Russian businesses, and rebranded as Nebius, resuming trading on Nasdaq in October 2024. [6]
Current news (through Dec. 20, 2025): AI Cloud 3.1 and NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra take center stage
Nebius AI Cloud 3.1 launches with Blackwell Ultra compute and “capacity visibility” tools
The most concrete near-term catalyst in December has been Nebius’s release of Nebius AI Cloud 3.1 (its “Aether” platform update), which the company says delivers next-generation NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra compute and adds operational tooling aimed at enterprise-scale deployments. [7]
Nebius’s announcement emphasized three things that matter to customers running AI in production:
- Next-gen systems: NVIDIA HGX B300 and GB300 NVL72 systems (Blackwell Ultra generation). [8]
- Networking throughput: Nebius said it is the first provider globally to run production GB300 NVL72 systems on 800 Gbps NVIDIA Quantum‑X800 InfiniBand, and the first cloud in Europe operating both GB300 NVL72 and HGX B300 in production. [9]
- Operational transparency: “Capacity Blocks” and a real-time “Capacity Dashboard” designed to show GPU availability and reserved capacity across regions (in other words: fewer surprises when your training run needs 1,024 GPUs now). [10]
Nebius also scheduled a technical walkthrough webinar for Jan. 29, 2026, signaling that the company wants developers and enterprises to treat this as a platform milestone, not just a press-release bullet point. [11]
Europe’s first live NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 deployment (Finland data center)
In parallel, Nebius published details about what it called Europe’s first operational production deployment of NVIDIA’s GB300 NVL72 platform, hosted at its expanded Finland data center. The blog post frames this as expanding the “compute foundation” available to European AI builders and sovereign AI initiatives. [12]
The deal flow that re-rated Nebius: Microsoft + Meta contracts reshape expectations
Microsoft: multi-year agreement tied to a New Jersey data center
Nebius announced in September 2025 a multi-year agreement to deliver dedicated AI infrastructure capacity to Microsoft from a new data center in Vineland, New Jersey, beginning later in 2025. [13]
On reported deal size, different reputable outlets have cited slightly different figures. Reuters referenced a $17 billion Microsoft deal, while Investopedia reported Microsoft would pay $17.4 billion over five years, with the possibility of an additional $2 billion tied to extra services or capacity (for a potential $19.4 billion total). [14]
Why this matters for NBIS stock: for a capital-hungry neocloud model, a hyperscaler contract isn’t just revenue—it can also become collateral for financing. In a September 2025 announcement about its financings, Nebius explicitly pointed to debt financing “secured against the contract and related infrastructure” as part of how it expects to fund capex associated with the Microsoft arrangement. [15]
Meta: $3 billion over five years—capacity constraints included
Nebius also signed a five-year agreement valued at approximately $3 billion to deliver AI infrastructure to Meta, disclosed alongside the company’s Q3 2025 results. Reuters reported that Nebius said the deal’s size was limited by the capacity Nebius had available, with deployment planned over the next three months after announcement. [16]
Latest financial snapshot: explosive revenue growth, widening losses, massive capex
Nebius’s Q3 2025 results show the classic AI infrastructure trade-off: demand is real, revenue is ramping—and the cost of building supply is enormous.
From the company’s Q3 2025 financial highlights:
- Revenue: $146.1 million in Q3 2025 (up from $32.1 million in Q3 2024). [17]
- Adjusted EBITDA: loss of $5.2 million (improved vs. a $45.9 million loss in Q3 2024). [18]
- Net loss from continuing operations: $119.6 million in Q3 2025. [19]
- Capex (purchases of property, plant & equipment): $955.5 million in Q3 2025, versus $172.1 million a year earlier. [20]
The company also disclosed an at-the-market (ATM) equity program for up to 25 million Class A shares, highlighting that dilution sensitivity remains part of the financing story. [21]
And the share structure is not trivial: as of Sept. 30, 2025, Nebius reported 251,807,222 shares issued and outstanding (including 218,158,548 Class A and 33,648,674 Class B), excluding 110,233,722 Class A shares held in treasury. [22]
The 2025 capex supercycle: why spending is rising—and what management/analysts say about EBITDA
Capex guidance raised to ~$5 billion for 2025
A recurring focus in December coverage is the sheer size of Nebius’s buildout plan. Nasdaq-hosted analysis (attributed to Zacks) highlighted that Nebius raised 2025 capex guidance from roughly $2 billion to around $5 billion, as it tries to secure power, land, sites, and hardware to expand data centers and GPU deployments. [23]
The same coverage also broke down capex mix in a way investors obsess over: land and power around ~1% of spending, data center buildout roughly ~18–20%, and GPU deployment around ~80%. [24]
EBITDA “exit” target: positive adjusted EBITDA by year-end 2025 (but not for the full year)
That same Nasdaq-hosted analysis said Nebius reiterated expectations to exit 2025 with positive adjusted EBITDA at the group level, while remaining negative for the full year—effectively arguing that scaling and utilization should start catching up to the buildout pace. [25]
Power targets: connected vs. contracted power ambitions
Nebius’s ability to grow is ultimately constrained by electricity and grid connections. Reuters reported Nebius plans to secure 2.5 gigawatts of contracted power for facilities across the U.S. and Europe by end of 2026. Separately, Nasdaq-hosted analysis cited targets of 800 MW to 1 GW of connected power and 2.5 GW of contracted power by end of 2026. [26]
Why NBIS jumped this week: a sentiment snapback in neoclouds (and takeover chatter)
The Friday surge in NBIS looks like a cocktail of three forces:
- A “risk reset” rebound after neocloud anxiety
Neocloud peers have been whipsawing on debt and financing concerns. Reuters Breakingviews recently framed the sector’s biggest systemic risk as credit conditions, warning that smaller, debt-heavier neocloud tenants can raise financing costs for data center developers and potentially create negative feedback loops if delivery delays hit cash flow. [27] - Platform momentum (Blackwell Ultra) meeting scarcity economics
The AI Cloud 3.1 launch is aimed directly at enterprise buyers who care about predictable access to GPUs—not just raw performance. If customers believe Nebius can reliably deliver GB300/HGX B300 capacity and manage it transparently, that supports the “premium neocloud” thesis the stock trades on. [28] - M&A speculation: “a hyperscaler buys a neocloud” in 2026
A widely circulated note summarized by Business Insider described Wedbush analyst Dan Ives naming Nebius as his top pick to be acquired by a hyperscaler in 2026, citing Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon as potential buyers. That is not a forecast anyone can bank on—but it’s the kind of narrative accelerant that can matter for a high-beta, story-driven stock. [29]
Other current Nebius headlines investors are tracking
Avride robotaxi launches on Uber in Dallas
Nebius’s autonomous vehicle unit, Avride, went live with robotaxi rides on Uber in Dallas. Uber’s press release said riders requesting certain Uber tiers (UberX, Uber Comfort, Uber Comfort Electric) may be matched with an Avride robotaxi at no additional cost, with an onboard specialist monitoring at launch. [30]
Nebius Robotics & Physical AI Awards: $1.5 million in compute credits
Nebius also announced winners of its Robotics & Physical AI Awards and Summit, awarding $1.5 million in AI Cloud compute and inference credits (accelerated by NVIDIA AI infrastructure) across selected startups. [31]
Token Factory: inference platform for open and custom models
Earlier in November, Nebius launched “Nebius Token Factory,” positioned as a production inference platform for deploying and optimizing open-source and custom models with enterprise-grade security and governance. Nebius highlighted supported models including DeepSeek, “GPT‑OSS by OpenAI,” Llama, NVIDIA Nemotron and Qwen, and claimed 99.9% uptime and sub-second latency (as described in its release). [32]
Wall Street forecasts for NBIS stock: price targets cluster well above the current price, but spreads are wide
Analyst targets for Nebius are unusually dispersed—typical for a company where outcomes are dominated by execution and financing.
Consensus targets (examples cited in widely used trackers)
- MarketBeat shows a consensus “Buy” rating and an average 12-month price target of $144.71, with the highest target at $211 and the lowest at $84 (based on 10 analysts in its dataset). [33]
- Investing.com shows an average target of 151.50 with a high of 211 and low of 70 (based on 8 analysts in its dataset), and lists several recent firm targets (e.g., Citizens 175, Goldman Sachs 155, DA Davidson 150). [34]
The headline here isn’t just “upside”—it’s uncertainty. A $70 low target alongside a $211 high target is basically Wall Street admitting: this is a throughput-and-financing equation with multiple possible endings.
Longer-range operating forecasts (growth is the point; profitability timing is the fight)
Some market commentary citing analyst models expects dramatic revenue expansion through 2026–2027 as capacity comes online, with adjusted EBITDA turning positive in 2026 in those projections. [35]
Nebius itself has pointed to aggressive demand dynamics; Reuters reported Nebius targeted $7–$9 billion in annualized run-rate revenue by the end of 2026 (against a much smaller run-rate baseline at Sept. 2025). [36]
The core bull case vs. the core bear case for Nebius stock (as of Dec. 20, 2025)
The cleanest way to understand NBIS is that it trades like a levered claim on a scarce resource: AI-grade compute + power-connected data centers + the software layer to operate them at scale.
The bull case
Nebius is landing hyperscaler-scale contracts (Microsoft, Meta) while also upgrading its platform to Blackwell Ultra generation systems and improving enterprise-grade capacity management. If GPU scarcity persists and Nebius executes its buildout, utilization can rise faster than operating costs—supporting the goal to exit 2025 with positive adjusted EBITDA while scaling into 2026. [37]
The bear case
This is still a capital-intensive model with real financing and timing risk. Reuters Breakingviews has warned that weaker-credit neocloud tenants and the long-duration nature of data center leases can stress credit markets, and rising borrowing costs can quickly change the economics of expansion. Meanwhile, Nebius’s own results show massive capex and sizable losses during ramp, alongside equity tools like an ATM program that can dilute shareholders if capital needs remain high. [38]
What to watch next for NBIS stock
Several near-term signposts matter more than generic “AI hype” headlines:
- Evidence that Blackwell Ultra capacity is actually being delivered and utilized (not just announced), including customer adoption of Capacity Blocks/Dashboard tooling. [39]
- Financing terms and structure for the expansion—especially asset-backed debt tied to large counterparties. [40]
- Progress on power (connected and contracted) and data center delivery timelines into 2026. [41]
- Any new long-term committed contracts with “AI labs and big tech companies,” which CEO Arkady Volozh explicitly suggested could follow the Microsoft agreement. [42]
- Optionality from Avride (robotaxi expansion) and Nebius’s adjacent initiatives (Token Factory inference, vertical programs like robotics/physical AI). [43]
Nebius Group N.V. stock is behaving exactly like the business it represents: fast, expensive, strategically important—and prone to violent repricings when markets get nervous about credit, capex, or timelines. The December rebound shows investors still want exposure to scarce AI compute. The next phase—especially into early 2026—will hinge on whether Nebius can convert its contract momentum and platform upgrades into durable, financed-attractive scaling rather than simply bigger revenue numbers with bigger bills attached. [44]
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. nebius.com, 3. assets.nebius.com, 4. assets.nebius.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.fool.com, 7. nebius.com, 8. nebius.com, 9. nebius.com, 10. nebius.com, 11. nebius.com, 12. nebius.com, 13. nebius.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. nebius.com, 16. assets.nebius.com, 17. assets.nebius.com, 18. assets.nebius.com, 19. assets.nebius.com, 20. assets.nebius.com, 21. assets.nebius.com, 22. assets.nebius.com, 23. www.nasdaq.com, 24. www.nasdaq.com, 25. www.nasdaq.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. nebius.com, 29. www.businessinsider.com, 30. investor.uber.com, 31. www.businesswire.com, 32. nebius.com, 33. www.marketbeat.com, 34. www.investing.com, 35. www.fool.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. nebius.com, 40. nebius.com, 41. www.reuters.com, 42. nebius.com, 43. investor.uber.com, 44. assets.nebius.com
