ANZ Group Holdings Limited (ASX: ANZ) heads into the Christmas week with its share price holding around the mid‑A$36 level, while investors digest a sharp mix of catalysts: a record combined penalty tied to long-running compliance failures, a second consecutive “strike” against executive pay at the AGM, and a still-evolving earnings outlook shaped by mortgage competition, cost-cutting and shifting capital rules in New Zealand. [1]
Below is a comprehensive, up-to-date wrap of the current news, forecasts and market analysis shaping ANZ stock as of 21 December 2025.
ANZ share price today: where ANZ stock sits entering the holiday week
ANZ shares were indicated around A$36.03 as of 21 December 2025, with a prior close near A$36.04. The stock’s 52‑week range has run roughly from A$26.22 to A$38.93, reflecting a year dominated by bank-margin debates, regulatory overhang and a still-competitive home-loan market. [2]
On this pricing snapshot, Investing.com lists ANZ’s market capitalisation at about A$107.43 billion and a headline dividend yield near 4.61% (noting that yield figures can move with price, exchange rates for foreign holders, and franking assumptions). [3]
The biggest ANZ catalyst right now: Federal Court orders A$250 million combined penalties
What happened
On 19 December 2025, Australia’s corporate regulator ASIC confirmed the Federal Court ordered ANZ to pay A$250 million in combined penalties for “widespread misconduct and systemic risk failures,” spanning both Institutional and Retail divisions. ASIC described this as the largest combined penalties it has secured against a single entity. [4]
The court’s orders covered four proceedings, including:
- institutional/markets misconduct tied to the management of a A$14 billion government bond deal and inaccurate reporting of secondary bond market data, and
- retail-related failures including hardship processes, interest-rate/bonus interest issues, and conduct involving deceased estates. [5]
Why the number rose above the earlier A$240 million settlement figure
ANZ said the Court imposed an additional A$10 million penalty for inaccurate monthly secondary bond turnover data, lifting the penalty for that specific matter from A$40 million to A$50 million and taking the total to A$250 million. [6]
What ANZ says it’s doing now
ANZ stated the financial impact of the revised civil penalties and ASIC’s costs are almost wholly covered by existing provisions, including a A$240 million penalty provision already booked. It also flagged major workstreams under its Root Cause Remediation Plan, an ASIC Matters Resolution Program in Australia Retail, and independent reviews by Promontory to report on progress. [7]
Investor takeaway: The market tends to dislike uncertainty more than bad news. The court outcome is a big headline, but it may also reduce “unknown-unknowns” if ANZ executes cleanly on remediation and avoids fresh regulatory surprises.
AGM fallout: ANZ hit with a second “strike” on executive pay, CEO scraps bonus
At ANZ’s 18 December 2025 annual general meeting, shareholders voted 32.36% against the remuneration report—above the 25% threshold that constitutes a “strike” under Australian rules, and the second consecutive strike for ANZ. [8]
In response, CEO Nuno Matos proposed to forgo his short‑term bonus for the year, even though the contributing issues predated his arrival as CEO (he started in May). Reuters also reported the shares were volatile early, then steadied around A$36.13 on the day. [9]
Why this matters for ANZ stock: Pay strikes are not just PR noise—they’re often a proxy vote on governance credibility, risk culture, and whether investors believe management’s turnaround story. If ANZ’s “fix the basics” narrative lands, the governance discount can shrink; if not, it can persist for years.
Former CEO lawsuit adds another governance thread investors are watching
Former CEO Shayne Elliott has commenced legal action in the NSW Supreme Court relating to his remuneration outcomes for FY2025. ANZ said that, under APRA’s remuneration standard CPS 511, the board determined no Australian‑based Group Executive would receive short‑term variable remuneration (excluding acting roles), and that some long‑term variable remuneration due to vest to Elliott would be adjusted down to zero for 2025 and 2026. [10]
ANZ’s chair Paul O’Sullivan said the board is confident in its position and will defend the matter. [11]
Market lens: The dollar amounts matter, but the deeper issue is precedent: boards across Australia’s financial sector are under pressure to demonstrate meaningful accountability when control failures occur.
Dividend update: ANZ paid its 83c final dividend on 19 December 2025
ANZ confirms it paid a 2025 final dividend of 83 cents per share, partially franked at 70%, on 19 December 2025, and applied a 1.5% discount to the Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP) and Bonus Option Plan (BOP). [12]
ANZ’s FY2025 full-year result announcement also reiterated the proposed final dividend of 83c, taking the full-year dividend to 166c (partially franked at 70%). [13]
New shares issued under the Bonus Option Plan
In an ASX filing dated 19 December 2025, ANZ applied for quotation of 2,007,267 ordinary fully paid shares issued under a dividend/distribution plan. [14]
Why investors care: DRP/BOP participation can slightly lift the share count (dilution), but it also conserves cash inside the bank—often viewed as supportive for capital ratios during heavy remediation/investment periods.
Earnings, margins and cost cuts: the operating story behind ANZ stock
ANZ’s FY2025 narrative is a tale of “strong franchise, messy execution.”
FY2025 results: headline vs underlying
ANZ reported FY2025 statutory profit of A$5.89 billion, down year-on-year, with results impacted by “significant items” tied to regulatory settlements and restructuring. [15]
On an underlying basis, ANZ said that excluding significant items totaling A$1,109 million, cash profit was flat on the prior year at A$6.896 billion. [16]
Reuters’ reporting aligns with that bridge: it cited cash earnings around A$5.79 billion, with a roughly A$1.11 billion post-tax hit including redundancy and legal settlement impacts—numbers that reconcile to the underlying ~A$6.9 billion result when you strip the one-offs. [17]
The margin problem (and why it’s not just an ANZ issue)
Reuters reported ANZ’s net interest margin declined to 1.55%, pressured by competition—especially in home loans—alongside the impact of rate cuts. [18]
ANZ’s own commentary has been blunt: competition and a falling interest-rate environment squeezed margins in its underperforming Australia Retail and Business & Private Bank divisions, despite growth in assets and deposits. [19]
The cost-cutting plan
ANZ has guided toward a 3% reduction in total costs in FY2026, part of CEO Matos’ early push to simplify operations and reduce duplication. [20]
Investor takeaway: For bank stocks, small movements in margin and cost-to-income can dominate the share price more than flashy product launches. ANZ’s near-term bull case leans heavily on execution: cost discipline plus fewer compliance surprises.
Strategy and transformation: ANZ 2030, Suncorp integration and the “back to basics” pledge
In his AGM address, CEO Nuno Matos framed ANZ 2025 as “necessary change” laying foundations for growth, anchored around ANZ 2030 and four pillars: Customer First, Simplicity, Resilience and Delivering Value. [21]
He also set out two major delivery timelines:
- completing the migration of Suncorp Bank customers to ANZ by June 2027, and
- rolling out the ANZ Plus single-customer digital front end to 8 million retail and SME customers by September 2027. [22]
Matos additionally said ANZ plans to increase bankers in Australia Retail and Business & Private Banking by up to 50% over five years, while equipping them with better tools—an explicitly human-capital-heavy bet in a sector that often sells “digital transformation” as a headcount story. [23]
Customer access and spending signals: Bank@Post launch and ANZ’s holiday spending forecast
Bank@Post: ANZ expands physical access via Australia Post
ANZ launched a Bank@Post service with Australia Post, giving customers access to basic banking at over 3,300 participating Post Offices nationwide—including many open Saturdays. Services include cash deposits and withdrawals (within stated limits), and balance checks for eligible Visa Debit card holders. [24]
For investors, this sits at the intersection of politics, customer satisfaction, and competition: banks are under pressure to preserve access to essential services, particularly in regional areas, even as branches decline.
“Festive spending” forecast: ANZ sees a A$5.1b holiday shutdown boost
ANZ forecast that customers would inject A$5.1 billion into the economy during the holiday shutdown period 21 December 2025 to 5 January 2026, a 4.7% increase on the same period last year, led by categories including food and beverages, travel and leisure, digital goods and luxury-related spending. [25]
This is not earnings guidance, but it’s a real-time pulse check on consumer behaviour—particularly relevant when investors are trying to judge whether household spending is stabilising after cost-of-living stress.
New Zealand tailwinds: RBNZ eases capital rules and business confidence surges
ANZ’s New Zealand business is a meaningful earnings pillar, so macro and regulatory shifts across the Tasman matter to ANZ stock.
RBNZ lowers some capital requirements (but still conservative globally)
Reuters reported the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will lower some capital requirements after reviewing rules introduced in 2019. For the top four Australian-owned banks (including ANZ), the RBNZ indicated common equity tier 1 requirements of 12% (down from 16%), while also changing other layers such as tier 2 and internal loss-absorbing capacity requirements. [26]
The RBNZ estimated the changes reduce average funding costs by about 12 basis points, with additional details expected in February and full implementation still not expected until 2028. [27]
RNZ similarly framed the move as reducing required capital and lowering funding costs, with the central bank expecting banks to pass savings on via lending and rates. [28]
ANZ NZ welcomes the review—but notes capital still rises vs today
ANZ Bank New Zealand said the revised approach appears likely to reduce upward pressure on interest rates versus the previous settings, while acknowledging that it still requires more capital than ANZ NZ holds today. [29]
Business confidence hits a 30-year high (ANZ survey)
Reuters also reported ANZ’s survey showed New Zealand business confidence surged in December to the highest level in 30 years, with a net 73.6% expecting the economy to improve over the year ahead and 60.9% expecting their own businesses to grow. [30]
Investor takeaway: Easing capital pressure and improving business sentiment can support credit growth and asset quality, but the benefit to bank earnings depends on competition, pricing discipline, and how quickly lower funding costs are competed away.
ANZ stock forecast: what analysts are projecting for 2026
Analyst sentiment on ANZ stock is currently clustered around “neutral/hold.”
Investing.com’s consensus view lists an overall “Neutral” stance, with 4 Buy, 7 Hold, and 3 Sell ratings (based on a poll of the past three months). The average 12-month price target is approximately A$35.21, with a high estimate near A$40.40 and a low estimate near A$30.00—implying modest downside from the A$36 area, depending on the exact price used. [31]
In other words: the market is not pricing ANZ as a high-conviction turnaround yet—it’s pricing it as a bank that could execute, but must prove it.
One widely shared thematic view: cost discipline + capital returns (with caveats)
A Simply Wall St narrative update dated mid‑December notes analysts “modestly increased” the target price by around A$0.07 and frames the forward debate around cost discipline, capital strength and execution risk. It also explicitly labels the narrative as produced via an LLM-based tool, so it’s best treated as a structured summary of consensus inputs rather than original analyst research. [32]
What could move ANZ shares next: the 2026 catalyst checklist
ANZ stock’s next re-rating—up or down—likely hinges on a handful of measurable items:
- Regulatory remediation progress: evidence that risk culture reforms are working, and that Promontory/oversight reviews are showing real improvement rather than box-ticking. [33]
- Margin resilience: whether ANZ can defend pricing amid mortgage competition and further rate moves (ANZ NIM was reported at 1.55% in FY2025). [34]
- Cost-out delivery: execution against the FY2026 cost reduction ambition, without breaking service quality (always the bank-tradeoff). [35]
- Suncorp integration milestones: hitting key program gates while avoiding customer disruption. [36]
- New Zealand regulatory detail: February’s additional RBNZ information could clarify competitive impacts and capital planning. [37]
- Governance temperature: after a second strike, how ANZ engages investors on accountability and remuneration design will remain in focus. [38]
Bottom line on ANZ Group Holdings Limited stock (ASX: ANZ) right now
As of 21 December 2025, ANZ stock is balancing two competing realities:
- On one side: a strong franchise, solid capital metrics, a paid final dividend, and a strategy agenda built around simplification and customer experience. [39]
- On the other: a heavy governance and compliance overhang that has now crystallised into record penalties and a second remuneration strike—issues that can weigh on valuation multiples until the market sees sustained proof of change. [40]
Analysts, for now, are largely sitting on the fence: consensus is Neutral, with an average target price slightly below the current trading level. [41]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.asic.gov.au, 5. www.asic.gov.au, 6. www.anz.com.au, 7. www.anz.com.au, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.anz.com.au, 11. www.anz.com.au, 12. www.anz.com, 13. www.anz.com.au, 14. company-announcements.afr.com, 15. www.anz.com.au, 16. www.anz.com.au, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.anz.com.au, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.anz.com.au, 22. www.anz.com.au, 23. www.anz.com.au, 24. www.anz.com.au, 25. www.anz.com.au, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.rnz.co.nz, 29. exclusives.anz.com.au, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.investing.com, 32. simplywall.st, 33. www.anz.com.au, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.anz.com.au, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.anz.com.au, 40. www.asic.gov.au, 41. www.investing.com
