Greatland Resources Limited Stock Surges to Record High: Havieron Feasibility, Telfer South JV, and Analyst Forecasts (21 Dec 2025)

Greatland Resources Limited stock (ASX:GGP, AIM:GGP) has pushed into fresh record territory going into the final stretch of 2025, powered by a rapid sequence of company and project catalysts in Western Australia’s gold-copper Paterson Province. Shares last traded around A$10.55 on the ASX, a level TradingView flagged as a new all‑time high reached on 19 December 2025. ^[1]

On the UK line, Greatland Resources traded around 509 GBX on 19 December (Google Finance), while LSE data showed the stock near 507.40p with a market capitalisation around £3.41 billion. ^[2]

So what’s actually moving Greatland Resources Limited stock right now—and what do today’s forecasts suggest after a blockbuster month of announcements?

Why Greatland Resources Limited stock is in focus heading into 2026

Greatland’s recent momentum isn’t coming from a single headline. It’s the classic “stacking catalysts” story—one that markets love because it converts a mining narrative from possibility into scheduled execution.

Here are the big three themes behind the December surge:

Havieron Feasibility Study (Dec 1, 2025): a detailed development plan with big stated economics and a funding pathway. ^[3]
Rincon “Telfer South” farm‑in and JV (Dec 18, 2025): expanding the exploration footprint close to Telfer, with optionality to feed future ore into existing infrastructure. ^[4]
Telfer optimisation + mine‑life optionality (Nov/Dec 2025): particularly the West Dome Underground program, where Greatland is drilling for a potential second underground mining front. ^[5]

Add a strong gold tape (and the fact that Greatland has become a dual‑listed “institutional‑screenable” producer/developer story), and you get a share price that doesn’t drift—it snaps.

Havieron Feasibility Study: the numbers that changed the conversation

On 1 December 2025, Greatland released its Havieron Project Feasibility Study—the kind of document that, in mining markets, functions like a credibility deposit: it doesn’t guarantee success, but it shows the work has been done and the assumptions are on the table.

Key disclosed highlights include:

Steady‑state annual production target:266koz gold + 9.6kt copper
AISC:$1,610/oz gold
Steady‑state pre‑tax free cash flow:$739m per annum (and $1,197m p.a. at spot gold cited in the release highlights)
Updated Ore Reserve:38.5Mt at 2.63g/t Au and 0.33% Cu, containing 3.3Moz gold and 128kt copper
Pre‑production capex:$1,065m
Funding pathway described: from $750m existing cash, ongoing Telfer cash flows, and a $500m debt commitment from a Tier‑1 lending syndicate
Base‑case post‑tax valuation metrics cited:$2.9b NPV (5% discount) and 22.5% IRR, rising to $5.4b NPV and 31.5% IRR at spot gold in the same highlight set ^[6]

A subtle but market‑moving point: the feasibility highlights explicitly frame Havieron as leveraging existing Telfer infrastructure, which is a big deal in Australia because “new plant + new approvals + new power/water logistics” is often where schedules go to die. Plugging into existing infrastructure can compress timelines and reduce capital risk—if execution holds.

MiningWeekly’s coverage leaned into that same thesis, describing Havieron as positioned as a “long‑life, low‑cost” mine underpinned by the use of Telfer’s established processing infrastructure. ^[7]

The Rincon “Telfer South” JV: more ground, closer to the mill, structured for optionality

On 18 December 2025, Rincon Resources announced a multi‑stage, multi‑year farm‑in and joint venture with Greatland over the Telfer South tenements. The structure is designed to let Greatland “pay” for increasing ownership through exploration spend—i.e., risk capital up front, equity later.

The key terms disclosed include:

Greatland can earn 51% by spending $2.0 million
Greatland can earn a further 19% with an additional $2.0 million spend
Greatland can increase to 75% by sole‑funding through to a decision to mine
If a mine is developed and Rincon remains in the JV, ore would be toll‑processed at Greatland’s Telfer mine under a toll arrangement aligned to the farm‑in principles ^[8]

Why the market cares: ore near a big existing plant is like finding an electrical outlet in a hotel room—you suddenly stop planning your entire day around scarcity. If Greatland can define satellite resources that can be processed through Telfer, it potentially supports:

higher plant utilisation,
smoother production profiles,
and (in the best case) a longer life for the broader Telfer-Havieron operating hub.

MiningWeekly also quantified the land package: the JV covers about 200.8 km² of Rincon’s broader 215 km² Telfer South project, across multiple licences spanning more than 40 km of prospective strike, while Rincon retains 100% of its Hasties project and deposits. ^[9]

Proactive’s write‑up emphasized the location and strategic fit: expanding Greatland’s footprint south of Telfer and within roughly 30 km of the processing facility. ^[10]

West Dome Underground: the “mine-life torque” lever investors are watching

If Havieron is the future engine, then Telfer is the current cash-and-infrastructure platform—and West Dome Underground is one of the clearest “optionality levers” on that platform.

In the 27 November 2025 West Dome Underground update, Greatland reported continued expansion of the drilling footprint and described three mineralised domains (Western Stockwork Corridor, Western Limb, Eastern Limb). Highlights included long intercepts such as:

56.6m @ 2.24 g/t Au and 1.26% Cu
82.2m @ 1.90 g/t Au and 0.31% Cu ^[11]

The operational angle is as important as the geology: Greatland stated that existing Telfer underground infrastructure could potentially support faster development pathways, with a pre‑feasibility study underway, and it flagged a target for a maiden Mineral Resource Estimate in the March 2026 quarter. ^[12]

Markets tend to price these programs like call options: low certainty early, but high convexity if a mineable resource emerges that can be fed into existing systems.

Ownership shifts: Tembo trims, BlackRock pops above 5% and then drops back

Alongside project headlines, December also delivered a mini‑drama in the register—useful context for anyone trying to interpret volume and volatility.

Tembo Capital: ceasing to be a substantial holder

A Form 605 filing shows Tembo Capital Holdings Guernsey Ltd ceased to be a substantial holder on 3 December 2025, citing a sale of 6,217,000 ordinary shares for A$25,056,893. ^[13]

BlackRock: brief move above 5%, then below again

A Form 603 filing shows the BlackRock Group became a substantial holder on 15 December 2025, reporting 34,608,116 shares and 5.14% voting power. ^[14]

Then, a subsequent Form 605 indicates BlackRock ceased to be a substantial holder on 16 December 2025 (with the notice dated 18 December). ^[15]

This sort of “in and out” above a disclosure threshold can happen for several reasons (flows, rebalancing, securities lending mechanics), but the market effect is straightforward: it often amplifies short‑term price discovery—especially in a stock already moving fast.

Greatland Resources stock forecast: what analysts are projecting now

After a sharp rerating, the natural question becomes: is Greatland priced for perfection—or still priced for execution?

Different platforms slice the analyst picture differently, especially because Greatland is dual‑listed and coverage can sit across Australian and UK broker ecosystems. Still, there are some clear signals.

Analyst consensus and price targets (ASX line)

Investing.com’s consensus snapshot for Greatland Resources (GGP) shows:

Overall consensus:Buy
Ratings tally:5 Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell
Average 12‑month price target:A$9.86
Range of targets shown:A$5 to A$13 ^[16]

Notably, with the ASX price around A$10.55, that average target implies the market has already done a lot of the near‑term work.

UK targets (AIM/LSE line)

Investors Chronicle (with data provided by LSEG) lists two analysts with a median 12‑month target around 578.22p, versus the last price around 507.40p (implying roughly 14% upside in that snapshot). ^[17]

Growth outlook models

Simply Wall St (as of 19 Dec 2025) flags a forecast profile of:

Revenue growth:~10.7% per year
Earnings growth:-1.9% per annum (decline)
Forecast ROE:~14% in 3 years ^[18]

That combination—revenue up, earnings pressured—often reflects the mining reality: growth phases can be capital‑intensive, and accounting earnings can wobble while spending ramps, even when long‑term value is being built.

The strategic picture: why Greatland is being treated like a “gold-copper hub” stock

In plain language, Greatland’s market appeal heading into 2026 is that it’s starting to look less like a single-asset story and more like a regional hub:

Telfer = operating base + processing + existing underground infrastructure options
Havieron = long-life development project with stated robust feasibility economics and a funding pathway
Telfer South / regional exploration = satellite optionality that could keep the mill busy longer

The company’s own shareholder information page (updated “correct as at 5 December 2025”) lists 672,906,505 shares in issue and identifies significant shareholders including Newmont (9.95%) and Wyloo (8.24%), with Tembo shown at 4.99% in that snapshot. ^[19]

Large, recognisable holders can matter for liquidity and for the “institutional comfort factor,” though it’s never a guarantee of future performance.

Key risks to watch (because mining stories always have boss fights)

Even with strong momentum, Greatland Resources Limited stock is still exposed to the classic mining risk stack:

Execution risk: feasibility studies are a blueprint; reality is a construction site. Timelines and costs matter.
Commodity risk: gold and copper prices cut both ways; “robust at spot” can become “tight at trend” quickly.
Permitting and approvals: Havieron’s schedule will be sensitive to environmental and regulatory milestones.
Funding and dilution risk: Greatland describes a funding pathway (cash + cash flow + debt), but the final mix and terms matter. ^[20]
Operational variability at Telfer: the platform asset must keep performing to support the broader hub strategy.

If you want one simple mental model: the bull case is “Havieron + satellites turn Telfer into a long-duration processing hub.” The bear case is “costs and timelines slip while the market stops paying upfront for future ounces.”

What to watch next for Greatland Resources Limited stock in early 2026

The next set of potential price-moving milestones is relatively clear:

Havieron development steps: detailed engineering, approvals progress, financing finalisation, and clarity on FID timing (final investment decision). ^[21]
West Dome Underground: additional drill results, progress on the pre‑feasibility study, and whether Greatland delivers the maiden resource estimate targeted for the March 2026 quarter. ^[22]
Telfer South JV activity: early exploration programs and targets, plus any signals that the ground can realistically produce mill-feed material over time. ^[23]
Register stability: after Tembo’s reduction and BlackRock’s brief move above 5%, investors will watch whether ownership settles or stays “flow-driven.” ^[24]

Greatland Resources Limited stock ends 2025 with something rare: a producing base, a feasibility-backed development project, and expanding near-mine optionality—all while the market is actively repricing the story. Whether that repricing proves durable will come down to one thing that markets never stop obsessing over: delivery.