Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN) Stock Update: POSCO Lithium Deal, Onslow Iron Ramp-Up, Debt Path and Latest Forecasts (21 December 2025)

Mineral Resources Limited (ASX: MIN) — “MinRes” — is back in the spotlight as investors weigh a very 2025 kind of trade-off: strong operational momentum (Onslow Iron hitting scale, new Pilbara projects starting) versus balance-sheet gravity and governance headlines.

As of 21 December 2025, MinRes shares are trading around A$52.65, near the top of their 52‑week range (A$14.05 to A$53.38), with a listed market cap around A$10.36 billion. ^[1]

Below is a detailed roundup of the latest news, the key catalysts, and the most widely referenced forecasts and analyst-style valuations shaping MinRes sentiment right now.

Mineral Resources share price snapshot (as of 21.12.2025)

MinRes is trading around A$52.65 on the ASX, after a prior close around A$52.50, and has recently moved within an intraday range roughly A$51.34–A$53.37. ^[2]

MinRes’ own investor materials also display MIN around A$52.70 (pricing on corporate sites is typically delayed and indicative, but it matches the broader quote neighborhood). ^[3]

Why it matters: MIN is no longer priced like a distressed turnaround. The market is actively assigning value to MinRes’ “debt repair + Onslow cash flow” narrative — but that confidence can wobble quickly if lithium weakens again or governance risk flares up.

The big moving pieces behind MIN right now

1) The POSCO lithium partnership: cash today, optionality tomorrow

MinRes’ most market-moving corporate development in recent months is its binding lithium joint venture framework with POSCO Holdings, designed to bring in significant cash and reduce balance-sheet stress.

In short: MinRes agreed to sell a 30% interest in a new incorporated JV holding MinRes’ existing lithium interests (at an underlying level, POSCO ends up with an indirect slice of key assets), while MinRes retains control and most economic exposure. The deal headline is US$765 million in consideration, and Reuters reported the market read it as a debt-reduction move that strengthened MinRes’ financial position. ^[4]

From MinRes’ ASX materials, the structure is explicit: MinRes retains a 70% interest in the new JV and remains operator, while POSCO receives offtake aligned with its stake. ^[5]

Timing to watch: multiple sources frame completion as a first-half 2026 event subject to approvals (including Australia’s foreign investment process). ^[6]

Why investors care: This is “capital recycling” with a strategic partner — not a fire sale. Bulls see it as a path to faster deleveraging without sacrificing MinRes’ upside if lithium improves.

2) Onslow Iron is doing the heavy lifting — and it just hit major milestones

MinRes’ operational story is increasingly dominated by Onslow Iron, which management has been pushing toward nameplate scale.

In its Q1 FY26 Quarterly Activity Report (period to 30 September 2025), MinRes said:

Onslow Iron shipped 8.6 Mt (100% basis) in Q1
Onslow operated at its 35 Mtpa nameplate capacity over August–October 2025
Liquidity reported at A$1.1B and net debt A$5.4B (including A$400M capex in Q1) ^[7]

That same report notes the 35 Mtpa milestone triggered a A$200M contingent payment from Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners (linked to the Onslow haul-road transaction). ^[8]

Then, in December, MinRes added another “industrial plumbing works” milestone: Port of Ashburton operations are now running entirely on natural gas, supported by a 14MW gas-fired power station connected to the Wheatstone Ashburton West Gas Pipeline. MinRes also flagged the capacity to displace ~60 million litres of diesel per year for port power generation. ^[9]

Why it matters: If Onslow stays stable at scale and costs fall as construction transitions to steady-state operations, Onslow becomes the engine for debt reduction — and that is central to almost every bullish thesis on MIN.

3) Pilbara growth pipeline: Lamb Creek breaks ground

While Onslow gets the headlines, MinRes is also extending and reshaping its Pilbara Hub footprint.

On 4 December 2025, MinRes said it broke ground at its Lamb Creek iron ore project after receiving approvals. Key details from the company:

7.5 Mtpa open pit mine
Expected to extend the Pilbara Hub production profile by over five years
Product to be blended with Iron Valley ore and shipped via Utah Point / Port Hedland
First ore targeted in Q4 FY26
Wonmunna to wind down, with staff transferring and “no impact to jobs anticipated” ^[10]

This is less “surprise catalyst” and more “execution and continuity,” but it reinforces the idea that MinRes is still building — even while paying down.

Balance sheet and refinancing: what has changed, and what hasn’t

MinRes’ leverage remains a core debate: some investors see manageable maturity spacing and improving cash flow; others see a company still walking a tightrope in a cyclical sector.

What we know from MinRes’ own disclosures

MinRes’ debt investor overview (stated as correct as of 1 December 2025) lists:

Credit ratings: Moody’s Ba3 (Negative outlook) and Fitch BB‑ (Stable outlook) ^[11]
A target minimum liquidity of A$1 billion and a long-term target of Net Debt/EBITDA < 2.0x ^[12]
Access to an A$800M revolving credit facility maturing 30 June 2027, with covenants tested 30 June and 31 December ^[13]
Bond maturities spanning Nov 2027, Oct 2028, May 2030, Apr 2031 ^[14]

In the Q1 FY26 activity report, MinRes also disclosed it refinanced its US$700M 8.125% notes (May 2027) into US$700M 7.000% notes (April 2031), and said the company then had more than two years until the next US$625M bond maturity in November 2027. ^[15]

How analysts/commentators are framing it

A September debt-market article citing Fitch said the refinancing was expected to be leverage-neutral and forecast improvement as Onslow ramps. It also reported Fitch commentary suggesting leverage could stabilise below 4.0x by 2026/27 (conditional on no fresh major investments), and noted governance as a lingering risk even as oversight improves. ^[16]

A separate October market briefing on the completed debt raise described the refinancing as swapping nearer-term, higher-interest debt for longer-term, lower-interest debt, and quoted an analyst view that it improved maturity alignment and signaled improved credit perception. ^[17]

The market’s simple scoreboard: MinRes needs (1) Onslow cash flow to keep arriving, (2) lithium not to implode again, and (3) no nasty surprises from governance/regulatory fronts.

Governance and regulatory headlines: the “risk premium” that won’t go away

MinRes is also dealing with reputational and regulatory noise that can widen its valuation discount even when operations are running well.

A recent Australian report said the Federal Court allowed the ATO access to certain affidavits tied to a case involving a former employee, which may assist an ATO investigation into potential tax issues involving MinRes and co-founder Chris Ellison; it also referenced a separate ASIC investigation. ^[18]

At the same time, MinRes has highlighted board renewal and the appointment of multiple independent non-executive directors during 2025. ^[19]

Why investors care: Markets can forgive cyclical earnings swings; they’re less forgiving of “unknown unknowns” that could trigger fines, leadership disruption, or constraints on capital access.

Forecasts and valuation: where the bulls and bears are anchoring

Here’s the unusual thing about MinRes right now: the company can look cheap or expensive depending on which future you believe. Most forecasts are essentially different answers to one question: Does lithium recover on a timeline that overlaps with MinRes’ deleveraging window?

Morningstar: “opportunity despite debt concerns”

A December 2025 Morningstar analysis argued the market’s debt fears may be overdone and published a fair value estimate of A$68 per share, tied to assumptions including:

Lithium improving materially by the late-2020s (their model references lithium carbonate rising sharply by fiscal 2028)
Onslow reaching ~38 Mtpa by fiscal 2027 with lower costs
Group capex falling toward more “sustainment-only” levels by fiscal 2027
No dilutive equity raising ^[20]

“Street” target ranges: wide dispersion, neutral-to-mixed tone

Aggregators show how divided the external analyst universe is:

TipRanks shows an average target around A$50.80, with a very wide band (high A$81.03, low A$17.33) based on analysts it tracks. ^[21]
Investing.com lists an average price target around the high‑40s (with high ~A$68 and low ~A$17.3) and an overall Neutral stance, while also noting MIN sits near its 52‑week highs. ^[22]

How to interpret this: When targets range from “teens” to “80+,” the stock is not being valued on next quarter’s shipments. It’s being valued on survivability + commodity-cycle timing + execution confidence.

The commodity backdrop: lithium is the swing factor

Reuters captured the core lithium problem (and why the POSCO deal mattered so much): lithium prices fell dramatically from the boom-era highs to far lower levels by 2025, pressuring Australian producers and pushing them toward asset sales, JV structures, or production cuts. ^[23]

MinRes’ Q1 FY26 report did note a quarter-on-quarter improvement in achieved spodumene pricing (SC6) — but lithium remains the part of the story that can change MIN’s earnings mood fastest. ^[24]

What to watch next for Mineral Resources stock

Over the coming weeks and months, MIN investors will likely key in on:

POSCO JV progress and approvals (and any update to timing for first-half 2026 completion). ^[25]
Onslow performance consistency at scale — shipments, cost guidance, and operational reliability. ^[26]
Debt and liquidity markers, especially around covenant testing points and refinancing momentum. ^[27]
Governance/regulatory developments that could shift the risk premium. ^[28]
Pilbara project execution, including Lamb Creek’s build and any capex/cost commentary in upcoming updates. ^[29]

Bottom line (as of 21 December 2025)

Mineral Resources stock is behaving like a company in the middle of a controlled transformation: operationally stronger and strategically funded, but still carrying debt, lithium-cycle exposure, and governance headline risk.

That combination explains why MIN can sit near 52‑week highs while analyst targets and valuations still look like a weather forecast drawn by committee: some see clearing skies, some see a cyclone, and everyone agrees the atmosphere is weird.