Rigetti Computing Stock (RGTI) News Today: Analyst Price Targets, Fresh Forecasts, and What Matters for 2026 (Dec. 21, 2025)

Rigetti Computing, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGTI) has spent 2025 doing what quantum computing stocks do: swinging violently between “the future is now” optimism and “the future is expensive” reality. As of Sunday, Dec. 21, 2025 (with U.S. markets closed for the weekend), the most important drivers of the story are new Wall Street coverage with sharply different takes, a company roadmap packed with near-term milestones, and a balance sheet that has become unusually liquid for a pre-profit quantum hardware name—largely because Rigetti raised a lot of capital during the year.

Below is a full, up-to-date roundup of the current news, forecasts, and analyses shaping RGTI as of 21.12.2025, with the key numbers and what to watch next.

RGTI stock: where things stand heading into the new week

Because today is a Sunday, the most recent official pricing reflects Friday’s session.

Last close (Dec. 19, 2025): $23.76, up 4.12% on the day
Day range (Dec. 19): $22.82 to $24.03
Volume (Dec. 19): ~31.9M shares ^[1]

Even a quick glance at the last two weeks tells you why RGTI keeps landing in Google Discover feeds: it’s a high-beta stock with major daily moves—down sharply mid-week and then bouncing into Friday’s close. ^[2]

The big headline theme: Wall Street is “initiating” quantum—Rigetti included

A major reason Rigetti is back in the spotlight this week is simple: big firms are finally treating quantum pure-plays like a real coverage category.

Wedbush goes bullish: Outperform, $35 target

Wedbush initiated coverage of Rigetti with an Outperform rating and a $35 price target (published Dec. 17). ^[3]

In broader sector commentary, Wedbush framed quantum computing as a long-run “transformational” technology that could materially expand its share of total compute spending by the end of the decade—starting from a very small base today. ^[4]

Jefferies is more cautious: Hold, $30 target

Jefferies took a more measured stance, rating Rigetti Hold with a $30 price target (as referenced in multiple recaps of the new quantum coverage wave). ^[5]

The core caution: Rigetti’s revenue has historically leaned heavily on government contracts, which can be lumpy and exposed to budget timing and appropriations cycles. ^[6]

Mizuho swings big: Outperform, $50 target—and a huge market forecast

Mizuho initiated with an Outperform rating and a $50 price target for Rigetti, positioning quantum as a possible “next big compute revolution” theme—while emphasizing that patience is required. ^[7]

Mizuho’s framing is aggressively long-term: forecasts cited in coverage place the quantum computing market expanding from roughly $1B today to ~$205B by 2035, with meaningful revenue still expected to take years. ^[8]

One key takeaway: targets are wide because uncertainty is wide

Across the most-circulated target set this month, published targets for Rigetti range from the high teens to $50, depending on the analyst and methodology—illustrating how much of the “valuation” is really a bet on milestones and adoption timing. ^[9]

Why the sector pulled back, and why Rigetti stays volatile

A recurring explanation in mainstream coverage: quantum stocks sold off during a broader risk-off moment in high-growth tech, with some commentary linking the pullback to renewed worries about an AI bubble pressuring sentiment across speculative tech trades. ^[10]

Barron’s coverage also emphasizes that quantum stocks remain nascent, volatile, and still heavily retail-owned, which tends to amplify swings when sentiment shifts. ^[11]

Rigetti’s most important company update: a detailed roadmap (and a very liquid balance sheet)

The most “official” foundational document shaping how analysts model Rigetti right now is the company’s Q3 2025 results release (Nov. 10, 2025), which includes explicit technical milestones through 2027.

The roadmap milestones (what Rigetti is promising)

Rigetti says it remains on track to deliver:

100+ qubit chiplet-based system by end of 2025, targeting 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity
150+ qubit system by or around end of 2026, targeting 99.7% median two-qubit gate fidelity
1,000+ qubit system by or around end of 2027, targeting 99.8% median two-qubit gate fidelity ^[12]

If you’re not steeped in quantum jargon: two-qubit gate fidelity is a measure of how accurately the system performs key operations. Higher fidelity is crucial because it reduces errors—and error rates are one of the main reasons useful, scalable quantum computing remains hard.

The financial reality check (what the business looks like today)

For Q3 2025 (ended Sept. 30), Rigetti reported:

Revenue: $1.9M
Operating loss: $20.5M
GAAP net loss: $201.0M vs non-GAAP net loss: $10.7M (large GAAP loss driven heavily by non-cash fair-value changes in warrant/earn-out liabilities) ^[13]

This is the central tension in the RGTI story: the stock trades on a future vision; the income statement still looks like a research organization.

The balance sheet surprise: roughly $600M in cash + investments

Here’s the number that jumps off the page and explains why some analysts view Rigetti as “funded to fight”:

Cash, cash equivalents, and available-for-sale investments: $558.9M as of Sept. 30, 2025
After additional warrant exercise proceeds, Rigetti reported ~$600.0M as of Nov. 6, 2025 ^[14]

Important nuance: “cash and investments” doesn’t mean it’s all sitting as idle cash in a checking account—Rigetti reported $26.1M in cash and hundreds of millions parked in available-for-sale investments (short- and long-term). ^[15]

How Rigetti got there (and what shareholders should remember)

Rigetti’s 2025 cash build was fueled by equity-linked capital flows, including:

ATM (at-the-market) share sales (proceeds shown in the cash flow statement)
A $35M private placement involving Quanta
Warrant exercises, including $46.5M in proceeds received after quarter end through Nov. 6 ^[16]

The tradeoff is dilution risk: Rigetti reported 325.3M shares outstanding at Sept. 30, 2025 vs 283.5M at Dec. 31, 2024. ^[17]

Commercial traction: two Novera system orders and delivery timing

One of the most tangible “this is not just a lab demo” data points in late 2025 was Rigetti’s announcement of two purchase orders totaling ~$5.7M for 9-qubit Novera™ on-premises systems, with deliveries expected in the first half of 2026. ^[18]

Rigetti disclosed the buyer profiles:

An Asian technology manufacturing company using the system as a testbed to build internal quantum expertise and benchmark its own technologies
A California applied physics and AI startup using it for quantum hardware and error correction research ^[19]

That matters because many quantum companies still generate the bulk of revenue from research contracts; hardware system sales (even small ones) are the early breadcrumbs of commercial adoption.

Government and defense work: AFRL contract and the funding timing risk

Rigetti also highlighted a three-year, $5.8M contract from the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) to advance superconducting quantum networking, collaborating with Dutch startup QphoX on microwave-to-optical signal conversion challenges. ^[20]

This kind of contract supports credibility and R&D progress—but it also underlines what skeptics keep pointing to: government timelines can be slow and politically exposed (budget cycles, procurement timing, shifting priorities). That risk shows up repeatedly in cautious analyst notes and coverage commentary. ^[21]

DARPA QBI update: not selected for Stage B (yet)

Another underappreciated but meaningful update from the Q3 release: Rigetti said it remained engaged with DARPA in Stage A of the Quantum Benchmarking Initiative (QBI), but was not initially selected for Stage B as of Nov. 6—while noting ongoing dialogue and optimism about being chosen later. ^[22]

For investors, this sits in the “signal vs. revenue” bucket: QBI participation isn’t a near-term sales engine, but it can influence reputation and ecosystem positioning.

NVIDIA NVQLink: why Rigetti keeps getting mentioned alongside AI infrastructure

Rigetti has leaned into a narrative that resonates in 2025 markets: hybrid quantum + AI/HPC (high-performance computing).

Rigetti says it supports NVIDIA NVQLink

Rigetti announced it is supporting NVIDIA NVQLink, describing it as an open platform aimed at low-latency, high-throughput integration between quantum hardware and AI supercomputing—positioning it as a resource to accelerate hybrid computation development. ^[23]

NVIDIA’s positioning: NVQLink as an “open” quantum-GPU bridge

NVIDIA’s own release describes NVQLink as an open architecture for coupling GPU computing with quantum processors, developed with input from major U.S. national labs and supporting multiple quantum builders. ^[24]

Later NVIDIA communications also highlighted broader adoption of NVQLink by additional scientific supercomputing centers, reinforcing the “ecosystem catalyst” story quantum bulls keep leaning on. ^[25]

For RGTI stock watchers, the key point isn’t “Rigetti becomes NVIDIA.” It’s that Rigetti can ride mindshare when markets get excited about the plumbing that might make quantum useful—especially if hybrid architectures become the practical near-term path.

Insider activity: a notable Form 4 sale (and what it does—and doesn’t—mean)

On Dec. 9, 2025, director Michael S. Clifton reported selling:

150,000 shares at a weighted average price of $27.3387
Sales of warrant-related positions as well (as shown in the same filing)

The filing states the transactions were made under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan adopted March 10, 2025. ^[26]

Context matters here: 10b5-1 plans can reduce the “signal” of insider selling (because they’re pre-scheduled), but large sales can still influence short-term sentiment in a retail-heavy, high-volatility stock.

Short interest: a structural volatility amplifier

As of Nov. 28, 2025, MarketBeat reported:

43.49M shares sold short
About 13.18% of the public float
Roughly 1.1 days to cover at average volume ^[27]

High short interest doesn’t automatically mean “squeeze incoming,” but it does mean positioning is crowded enough that sharp moves—up or down—can feed on themselves.

What the bullish case looks like in late 2025

The optimistic thesis (as reflected in bullish initiations and pro-quantum commentary) generally rests on four pillars:

Roadmap credibility: explicit fidelity targets and a stepped path to 1,000+ qubits by 2027 ^[28]
Funding runway: ~$600M in cash + investments, giving Rigetti time to iterate ^[29]
Early commercial traction: the $5.7M Novera orders and upcoming deliveries in H1 2026 ^[30]
Ecosystem catalysts: NVQLink / hybrid compute narratives and broader institutional attention to quantum as a “compute category” ^[31]

In this framing, the stock is less about next quarter’s revenue and more about whether Rigetti is building a platform that could matter if quantum adoption accelerates later in the decade.

What the bearish (or cautious) case looks like

The skeptical view is also coherent—and frequently repeated in mainstream analysis:

Fundamentals are still small: $1.9M quarterly revenue against a $20.5M quarterly operating loss is a long bridge to profitability ^[32]
Valuation depends on future promise: several analyses argue the stock remains speculative, with sentiment and volumes driving large moves ^[33]
Revenue concentration risk: reliance on government contracts creates timing uncertainty; even bulls acknowledge near-term pressure is possible ^[34]
Dilution and equity overhang: substantial capital raises and warrant dynamics strengthen liquidity but can weigh on per-share economics ^[35]

Even some “constructive” takes boil down to: Rigetti may be a better trading vehicle than a fundamentals-driven compounder—at least until clearer recurring revenue emerges. ^[36]

The 2026 watchlist: catalysts that could move RGTI next

Heading into 2026, the near-term drivers that matter most (based on what the company and covering analysts are emphasizing) are:

Delivery and recognition of revenue from the two Novera system orders expected in H1 2026 ^[37]
Proof of progress toward the 100+ qubit / 99.5% fidelity milestone by end of 2025 (and how the company reports it) ^[38]
Any update on DARPA QBI Stage B selection after the “not initially selected” note ^[39]
Additional commercial orders (the fastest way to change the “it’s all contracts” narrative) ^[40]
Sector sentiment: quantum stocks have been trading as a cohort—when the theme is in favor, they often move together ^[41]

Bottom line for Dec. 21, 2025

Rigetti stock is being repriced in real time as Wall Street starts to formalize the quantum category: Wedbush is bullish, Jefferies is cautious, and Mizuho is aggressively optimistic on the long-term market size. ^[42]

Rigetti itself is offering a clear milestone ladder—100+ qubits by end of 2025, 150+ by end of 2026, and 1,000+ by end of 2027—and it now has ~$600M in cash and investments to pursue it. ^[43]

But the company’s current revenue base is still small, and the stock remains fundamentally a bet on execution, adoption timelines, and whether quantum’s “hybrid e

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