Dec. 21, 2025 — NuScale Power Corporation stock (NYSE: SMR) heads into the final full trading week of 2025 with a familiar cocktail of big long-term ambitions and near-term capital-market reality. Shares last closed at $16.07 on Friday, Dec. 19 after a volatile stretch that included double-digit down days and heavy volume. [1]
So what’s actually driving SMR stock right now? The short version: investors are pricing the company’s funding needs and dilution risk today, while still trying not to miss the “nuclear-for-AI” narrative and multi-gigawatt project headlines that could matter later this decade.
Below is a full roundup of the most current news, forecasts, and analyses available as of Dec. 21, 2025—with the key filings and datapoints that moved the stock.
Where NuScale stock stands today
Because U.S. markets are closed on Sunday, the freshest “official” pricing context is Friday’s close:
- Close (Dec. 19, 2025): $16.07 (after-hours shown at $16.29 on the same day) [2]
- A whiplash week: from $18.34 (Dec. 12 close) to $16.07 (Dec. 19 close)—a drop of about 12% in five sessions, despite a bounce into the weekend. [3]
What jumps out isn’t just direction—it’s intensity. On Dec. 12, the stock fell 13.57%; on Dec. 17, it dropped another 8.12%. [4]
The biggest near-term catalyst: NuScale’s authorized share increase (and the dilution math everyone is doing)
What happened (and what the company actually filed)
NuScale disclosed that shareholders approved an amendment to increase authorized Class A shares from 332,000,000 to 662,000,000 at a special meeting held Dec. 16, 2025. In an 8‑K, the company reported the vote and stated it filed the certificate of amendment in Delaware to implement the increase. [5]
This is the key nuance markets wrestle with:
- Authorized shares ≠ immediate dilution.
- But authorized shares do expand the capacity to issue equity (and NuScale has been using equity issuance to fund operations).
Why NuScale framed the vote as existential
In its SEC proxy materials for the special meeting, NuScale explicitly warned that failure to approve the share increase could severely limit financing flexibility and “may create substantial doubt” about its ability to continue as a going concern. [6]
The same proxy explains why funding flexibility matters so much: NuScale states it has not yet commercialized or sold its NuScale Power Module, and its revenue has come largely from DOE cost-sharing awards and work as a subcontractor on the RoPower FEED project in Romania. It also notes that operations have primarily been financed through net proceeds from selling Class A common stock via at‑the‑market (ATM) programs. [7]
That combination—pre-commercial core product + cash burn + equity-funded operations—is why the market treated the share authorization vote like a dilution weather forecast.
The funding overhang: ATM programs and the “capital treadmill” problem
NuScale’s recent disclosures reinforce that equity issuance is not theoretical.
A newer $750 million ATM program (and what it signals)
A recent filing summary notes the company entered a new sales agreement that allows it to issue up to $750 million in Class A common stock through an ATM offering, terminating a prior agreement. [8]
Q3 cash position: strong, but paired with meaningful share issuance
In its third-quarter 2025 release, NuScale reported ending the quarter with $753.8 million in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments. It also reported selling 13.2 million shares through an ATM program during the quarter for $475.2 million in gross proceeds. [9]
From an equity investor’s perspective, this is the central tension: NuScale has raised substantial cash, but the path to commercialization is still long, and dilution is a recurring tool in the toolbox.
Another supply-side pressure point: Fluor’s stake monetization plan
NuScale’s stock story in late 2025 also includes Fluor, a long-time backer.
Fluor and NuScale announced an agreement in which Fluor will convert remaining Class B units into Class A shares and begin a structured monetization, with Fluor expecting to complete monetization by the end of Q2 2026 (subject to volume restrictions). [10]
The same announcement notes Fluor agreed to vote in favor of NuScale’s authorized share increase and that the parties also agreed to limitations on NuScale equity issuances through February 2026 intended to help align interests and reduce instability while both access capital markets. [11]
Translation into plain market-English: even with restrictions, investors are aware that a major holder intends to monetize over time, which can create perceived “future supply” pressure.
The long-term bull case: regulatory progress and the TVA mega-program narrative
If the bear case is “dilution and distance,” the bull case is “regulatory de-risking and giant offtake ambition.”
NRC milestone: US460 Standard Design Approval (77 MWe)
NuScale announced in May 2025 that the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission approved its second small modular reactor design via Standard Design Approval for the US460 (reflecting uprated output of 77 MWe per module, up from the earlier 50 MWe design), and said it remained on track for deployment by 2030. [12]
Regulatory approvals don’t automatically produce revenue, but they reduce one of the most brutal risks in nuclear: the “never gets licensed” tail.
TVA + ENTRA1: up to 6 GW under proposed PPAs
In September 2025, NuScale announced that TVA and ENTRA1 signed an agreement to develop a deployment program targeting up to 6 gigawatts of NuScale SMR generation under proposed power purchase agreements. [13]
A Reuters Events analysis later characterized the ENTRA1 agreement as potentially implying more than 70 NuScale Power Modules (given 77 MW nameplate per module), calling it potentially the biggest SMR deployment agreement to date. [14]
That’s the “dream fuel” for bulls: big numbers, big customers, big geography.
But here’s the sober subtext: Reuters also notes many of these SMR timelines still push into the 2030s, and much hinges on financing, permitting, and converting proposed structures into binding commitments. [15]
The broader backdrop: AI data centers are rewriting power demand, but SMRs may miss the earliest wave
NuScale trades partly on a macro story that’s bigger than NuScale: the idea that AI-driven electricity demand will force a new buildout of 24/7 power.
Reuters reported that global data center power demand is expected to double by 2030, and cited projections that U.S. data center demand could rise to 100–130 GW by 2030—with a potential shortfall of up to 80 GW if supply can’t keep up. The same report notes that SMR developers may struggle to deploy units before the 2030s, which could mean missing some near-term demand. [16]
For NuScale investors, this matters because it reframes the investment question:
- Not “Will nuclear be useful?” (probably yes)
- But “Will NuScale capture revenue in time—and on terms that don’t crush shareholders with dilution?”
What analysts and forecasts are saying about SMR stock now
This is where things get… delightfully messy, because coverage varies by data provider.
StockAnalysis consensus: “Hold,” but with huge upside implied
StockAnalysis reports 7 analysts covering SMR with a consensus “Hold” and an average 12‑month price target of $38.36, with targets ranging from $20 to $60. [17]
That implied upside looks enormous mainly because the stock price is currently so depressed versus prior highs.
MarketBeat: “Reduce,” mixed ratings, and named targets
MarketBeat describes sentiment as mixed/negative overall: 3 Buy / 7 Hold / 6 Sell, with an average rating of “Reduce” and an average target around $36.04. It also lists several notable targets and ratings, including:
- UBS target $20 (Neutral)
- Bank of America Underperform with $34 target (reduced from $38)
- RBC $32 (Sector Perform)
- Citigroup Sell with $37.50 target (reduced from $46)
- Cantor Fitzgerald initiation with Overweight and $55 target [18]
Quant-style “fair value” analysis: a bearish reminder
One InvestingPro/Investing.com analysis highlights that its fair value model had previously flagged NuScale as significantly overvalued and describes a predicted decline of about 47% from $30.21 to $16.06. [19]
This doesn’t “prove” the stock is overvalued today—but it reflects the kind of model-driven skepticism that tends to show up when a company is pre-commercial and equity-financed.
Another perspective: “this slide is about execution risk”
Simply Wall St summarized the recent move as a sharp valuation reassessment, describing SMR as down roughly 27% for the month and about 66% over the past three months, with investors focused on execution risk and the need to turn headline partnerships into firm commitments. [20]
Why SMR stock is so reactive: NuScale is trading like a “financing story” more than a “revenue story”
NuScale’s filings themselves explain why the stock behaves the way it does:
- It hasn’t yet sold commercial reactor modules. [21]
- It has relied heavily on ATM equity programs to fund operations. [22]
- It sought—and obtained—room to issue more shares, and warned that failure could raise going-concern doubt. [23]
So investors are effectively running two models in their heads at all times:
- The technology + demand model (AI power demand, nuclear tailwinds, TVA scale)
- The capitalization model (how many shares get issued before meaningful reactor revenue arrives)
When model #2 dominates the narrative, the stock often sells off on “capital flexibility” news—even if that flexibility is strategically necessary.
What to watch next for NuScale stock into 2026
Here are the near-term checkpoints that matter most for SMR shareholders:
1) Financing and dilution cadence
Now that the authorized share ceiling is higher, the key question becomes how aggressively NuScale uses that flexibility—especially alongside any ATM sales activity. [24]
2) TVA/ENTRA1: movement from “agreement” to bankable milestones
Investors will be watching for specifics: site selection, timeline clarity, and anything that upgrades proposed PPAs into more binding structures. [25]
3) Fluor monetization timeline
Fluor expects to complete monetization by the end of Q2 2026; the market will watch actual pacing versus restrictions. [26]
4) Earnings and cash burn updates
Investing.com lists the next earnings date as March 12, 2026—a likely moment for investors to re-check runway, burn rate, and financing plans. [27]
5) The U.S. SMR policy landscape (including who gets funded)
The Department of Energy selected TVA and Holtec for up to $800 million in cost-shared funding for early U.S. SMR deployments—important context for the sector, even though it’s tied to TVA’s BWRX‑300 pathway and Holtec’s SMR‑300 plans rather than NuScale’s design. [28]
Bottom line on Dec. 21, 2025
NuScale Power stock is in a classic “high-voltage pre-commercial” phase: the addressable market story is enormous, the regulatory progress is real, and the project headlines can be genuinely massive—but the stock can still get punched in the face by the simple physics of fundraising.
In late 2025, SMR’s price action is saying: markets want proof that big partnerships become bankable projects before dilution becomes the dominant product.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. www.sec.gov, 6. www.sec.gov, 7. www.sec.gov, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.nuscalepower.com, 10. newsroom.fluor.com, 11. newsroom.fluor.com, 12. www.nuscalepower.com, 13. www.nuscalepower.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. stockanalysis.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.investing.com, 20. simplywall.st, 21. www.sec.gov, 22. www.sec.gov, 23. www.sec.gov, 24. www.sec.gov, 25. www.nuscalepower.com, 26. newsroom.fluor.com, 27. www.investing.com, 28. www.energy.gov
