ZURICH — 21 December 2025 — Switzerland’s stock market is heading into the final holiday‑shortened trading stretch of the year with the Swiss Market Index (SMI) still hovering near the upper end of its recent range. The benchmark closed at 13,171.85 on Friday (19 Dec), up 0.27%, with the broader SPI also slightly higher and mid-caps mixed, according to SIX market data. [1]
That’s the headline number investors will carry into year‑end positioning — but the more interesting story is the one behind the tape: SIX Swiss Exchange is closing 2025 after a year of record turnover milestones, product‑market tweaks aimed at retail participation, and market‑infrastructure moves designed to give the Swiss exchange group more scale in Europe. [2]
Below is what matters right now for the Swiss Exchange ecosystem — market levels, infrastructure and regulation, key index changes, and the main forecasts shaping expectations for 2026.
Where the Swiss Market Index stands heading into year‑end
The SMI is Switzerland’s flagship blue‑chip gauge: it tracks 20 of the largest and most liquid stocks on the Swiss equity market and covers roughly three‑quarters of Swiss equity market capitalisation, making it the main reference point for Swiss equity exposure globally. [3]
SIX’s own November “B1G Numbers” release offered a useful marker for how the year’s momentum built: the SMI rose 4.9% in November to 12,834, which SIX said contributed to a 10.6% increase for 2025 year‑to‑date as of the end of November. [4]
By late December, the index level has edged higher again, but the calendar now matters almost as much as fundamentals: holiday weeks can compress liquidity and amplify moves driven by positioning, index flows, or a small set of heavyweight names — and the SMI is famously top‑heavy (healthcare and defensive staples dominate the conversation in any serious Swiss equity debrief).
SIX Swiss Exchange: record turnover milestones and a retail‑oriented trading tweak
SIX has been public about how active 2025 has been in its cash equity and ETF ecosystem.
In its November 2025 key figures, SIX said equities trading turnover on SIX Swiss Exchange surpassed the entire 2024 total on 11 November, reaching CHF 809.4 billion since the start of 2025 by month‑end. Across the Swiss market as a whole, SIX said turnover cleared CHF 1.0 trillion year‑to‑date, up 13.2% versus January–November 2024, with the ETF segment showing the strongest rise (up 54.4% YTD). [5]
Then came a notable microstructure change aimed squarely at how Swiss retail investors actually trade: extended trading hours for structured products. As of 1 December 2025, SIX launched a segment that allows trading in eligible structured products from 08:00 to 21:45 CET, a near six‑hour extension versus the long‑standing daytime window, explicitly framed as enabling investors to react more flexibly to developments — especially during U.S. market hours. [6]
This doesn’t turn Swiss equities into a 24/7 bazaar — but it’s a concrete step in the direction global exchanges keep inching toward: more time, more access, and more competition for the retail investor’s attention.
Clearing consolidation: SIX’s “SIX Clearing” plan is a big strategic signal
SIX’s most consequential late‑year market‑infrastructure announcement wasn’t about listings or index marketing — it was about post‑trade plumbing.
On 4 December 2025, SIX announced plans to integrate SIX x‑clear (Switzerland) and BME Clearing (Spain) into a single multi‑asset central counterparty (CCP) branded “SIX Clearing,” subject to regulatory approvals. SIX said the consolidated CCP would be headquartered in Madrid with presences in Zurich and Oslo, combining x‑clear’s interoperable cash‑equity model with BME’s multi‑asset footprint. The release also highlighted that operating under an EU licence would provide access to ECB euro liquidity and core EU market infrastructure (including T2/T2S access), positioning the group to compete more directly in European post‑trade. [7]
Translation: SIX is trying to be “more European” where it counts — in scale, interoperability, and regulatory reach — without giving up its Swiss home base or its control of the Swiss blue‑chip order book.
Governance: SIX names its next chairman
Also in early December, SIX confirmed a top governance transition: André Helfenstein will become Chairman of the Board of Directors of SIX effective 1 January 2026, replacing Thomas Wellauer, who will remain on the board through the AGM in May 2026 to support continuity. [8]
Leadership transitions don’t move the SMI directly, but they matter for how the exchange group prioritises capital allocation, acquisitions, and longer‑horizon infrastructure bets — especially at a moment when exchange operators increasingly make money from data, post‑trade, and technology as much as from pure trading fees.
Europe’s data shift: EuroCTP selection puts consolidated tape back in the spotlight — with SIX inside the tent
One of the most significant Europe‑wide market‑structure developments this month is the EU’s consolidated tape project for equities and ETFs — and it has a Swiss angle.
On 19 December 2025, ESMA (the EU’s markets regulator) announced it had selected EuroCTP as the first Consolidated Tape Provider (CTP) for shares and ETFs in the EU, describing it as a milestone for transparency and a consolidated view of market activity across Europe. ESMA said EuroCTP is a Netherlands‑based joint venture with 15 European exchange groups as shareholders, and invited it to proceed to authorisation, after which it would operate under ESMA supervision for five years. [9]
Industry coverage has noted that SIX is among the exchange groups backing EuroCTP, and that the project is working toward a July 2026 launch timeline, subject to authorisation. [10]
For SIX, the consolidated tape is not just a policy headline — it’s a strategic lever. A well‑implemented tape can reshape market‑data economics across Europe. Exchange groups that are shareholders in the tape provider are, at minimum, closer to the centre of the conversation about pricing, governance, and the technical rails that will carry the data.
Index mechanics: Swatch leaves the Swiss Leader Index as Helvetia Baloise joins
A very practical, near‑term market event arrives on Monday:
Swatch Group is set to be removed from the Swiss Leader Index (SLI) effective 22 December 2025, after trading volumes and market capitalisation declined. Reuters reported the watchmaker will be replaced by Helvetia Baloise Holding, created through the merger of Helvetia and Baloise. [11]
Index composition changes matter because they can create mechanical flows — especially into the close — from index funds, structured products, and other vehicles that track Swiss benchmarks. In a holiday‑thin tape, those flows can look bigger than they “should” in normal conditions.
Macro backdrop: tariffs, rates, and the Swiss franc are still the three‑body problem
Swiss equities don’t trade in a vacuum; they trade in a world where the franc can strengthen when everyone else panics, and where export exposure is both a strength and a sensitivity.
Swiss growth expectations improved — but remain modest
Switzerland’s official economic outlook improved slightly in mid‑December. In a government release, the Expert Group projected Swiss GDP growth of 1.1% in 2026 (following 1.4% in 2025, adjusted for sporting events), and pointed to reduced U.S. tariffs as improving planning certainty for affected sectors, even as uncertainty remains elevated and the franc remains strong. The same release forecast inflation averaging 0.2% in both 2025 and 2026. [12]
Separately, the KOF Swiss Economic Institute also projected 1.1% growth in 2026, with Reuters noting the forecast assumes a weaker international environment despite the tariff relief headline. [13]
The SNB stays at zero — and keeps the FX option on the table
On 11 December 2025, the Swiss National Bank left the SNB policy rate unchanged at 0%, stating it remains willing to be active in foreign exchange markets as necessary. The SNB’s press release also set out its baseline expectation for Swiss GDP growth of just under 1.5% in 2025 and around 1% in 2026, while noting unemployment has been rising. [14]
The corporate drivers investors are watching: UBS capital rules and pharma pricing spillovers
Swiss indices are dominated by a handful of giants, so policy stories that hit those giants matter disproportionately.
UBS and the capital rule debate
UBS has been a major Swiss market narrative again this month, but for regulatory reasons rather than earnings drama. Reuters reported that Swiss lawmakers proposed a compromise approach to UBS capital requirements that helped lift the stock, following earlier proposals that could have required substantially more capital to back foreign subsidiaries. [15]
That debate is not purely a bank‑regulation story; it’s also a Swiss financial‑centre story. Reuters also reported Canton Zurich urged the federal government to soften proposed UBS capital requirements, warning about competitiveness and economic effects. [16]
Pharma pricing: Roche highlights a potential Switzerland knock‑on effect
Healthcare is the other gravitational centre of Swiss indices. On 20 December, Reuters reported Roche’s CEO warned that new drug prices in Switzerland could rise in the future following a U.S. deal aimed at reducing certain U.S. drug prices, arguing pricing may increasingly reflect countries’ economic strength. [17]
Even if such pricing dynamics take years to show up in realised revenues, investors tend to price “policy drift” early — especially in heavily regulated sectors.
2026 forecasts: modest upside, low rates, and “don’t ignore the weird stuff”
Forecasts should always be treated like weather models: useful, probabilistic, and occasionally hilarious. Still, they shape positioning.
A widely‑circulated late‑year call comes from UBS, which wrote on 17 December that it sees potential for Swiss equity prices to rise around 5% in 2026 (for the SMI), alongside around 10% for the global MSCI AC World index — while arguing that low Swiss rates make “investing” more attractive than “saving.” [18]
The same UBS note explicitly tied part of its Swiss macro framing to (1) the expectation that the SNB remains at 0% and (2) the U.S.–Switzerland tariff agreement reducing the tariff rate from 39% to 15%, while still acknowledging that even the reduced tariff is a burden for exporters. [19]
Globally, the interest‑rate regime looks less supportive than it did earlier in the easing cycle. Reuters reported that several major central banks have been signaling the rate‑cut cycle is ending, which raises the bar for broad multiple expansion across equities in 2026. [20]
Put together, the dominant “base case” implied by current public analysis looks like this:
- Swiss equities retain their defensive appeal (healthcare, quality industrials, cash returns).
- Monetary policy stays supportive in Switzerland (0% policy rate, low inflation).
- Upside exists — but it’s more likely to come from earnings resilience and selectivity than from a pure liquidity‑driven melt‑up.
Holiday trading schedule: when SIX closes — and why it matters for liquidity
The last part of December is not business as usual for Swiss markets.
SIX’s Trading Calendar 2025 shows market holidays (market closed) on 24–26 December and 31 December. [21]
On normal days, SIX notes that the Swiss stock exchange “trading day” runs 06:00 to 22:00 CET with segment‑specific trading periods, including auctions and continuous trading. [22]
Those closures and irregularities tend to compress liquidity into fewer sessions — and with the SLI rebalance arriving 22 December, investors should not be surprised if the market’s microstructure (spreads, depth, auction dynamics) becomes a bigger part of the story than usual. [23]
Bottom line for the Swiss Exchange on 21 Dec 2025
As Switzerland heads into year‑end, the Swiss Exchange story is a blend of steady index levels and busy infrastructure politics:
- The SMI is near 13,200 and closing 2025 on a constructive footing. [24]
- SIX is pushing on turnover growth, product access, and post‑trade scale, including extended hours for structured products and a planned clearing consolidation. [25]
- Europe’s consolidated tape project is real now — and SIX is positioned inside the EuroCTP shareholder group as ESMA moves the initiative toward authorisation. [26]
- The near‑term tape may be driven by index flows (Swatch leaving the SLI), while the 2026 narrative will likely hinge on rates staying low, export policy uncertainty, and whether Switzerland’s heavyweight sectors keep delivering the kind of earnings durability that global investors buy Swiss stocks for in the first place. [27]
References
1. www.six-group.com, 2. www.six-group.com, 3. www.six-group.com, 4. www.six-group.com, 5. www.six-group.com, 6. www.six-group.com, 7. www.six-group.com, 8. www.six-group.com, 9. www.esma.europa.eu, 10. www.fnlondon.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.news.admin.ch, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.snb.ch, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.ubs.com, 19. www.ubs.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.six-group.com, 22. www.six-group.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.six-group.com, 25. www.six-group.com, 26. www.esma.europa.eu, 27. www.reuters.com
