Ahead of the U.S. stock market open on Monday, December 22, 2025 (noting some readers use the date format 22/12/2025), Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) is back in focus as crude prices swing near multi-year lows, Wall Street updates targets after Exxon’s 2030 plan refresh, and several headline-driven catalysts—from LNG commissioning to governance changes—remain in play. [1]
Below is what investors should know before the bell—from the latest macro backdrop to company-specific developments and the newest analyst outlooks.
Where Exxon Mobil stock stands heading into the open
XOM’s most recent available quote in this feed is around $116.69, after a -1.02% move (down about $1.20) in the latest session recorded, with the timestamp reflecting late Friday U.S. time (00:15 UTC on Dec. 20) rather than Monday’s premarket.
That price context matters because energy stocks have been unusually sensitive to fast-moving crude headlines in December, and Exxon is one of the most heavily owned “core” names in the sector—meaning positioning can amplify moves around oil shocks, rating changes, or big project updates. [2]
Oil prices: the biggest near-term driver for XOM remains the tape
A late-December crude whipsaw is back on traders’ screens
Oil prices have been volatile this month. In the latest Reuters reporting early Dec. 22, crude rose after the U.S. intercepted a Venezuelan oil tanker over the weekend: Brent +0.73% to about $60.91 and WTI +0.71% to about $56.92 in early trade. [3]
But the bounce comes after a sharp drawdown: on Dec. 16, Reuters reported oil settling at its lowest level since February 2021 amid oversupply jitters and rising expectations that Russia-Ukraine peace progress could eventually ease supply constraints. [4]
What this means for Exxon
For Exxon, the oil tape affects more than just upstream earnings: it influences investor sentiment around buybacks, capex discipline, and valuation (especially for integrated majors). Exxon itself highlighted in earlier quarterly guidance that changes in crude prices can swing upstream earnings meaningfully from quarter to quarter. [5]
The headline catalyst: Exxon’s upgraded 2030 plan and a CFO transition
Exxon’s Dec. 9, 2025 corporate plan update is still the central narrative anchor for analysts:
- Exxon is now targeting $25 billion in earnings growth from 2024 to 2030 and $35 billion in cash flow growth (constant prices/margins basis), with no increase in capital spending versus its prior plan. [6]
- The company raised its upstream production ambition to 5.5 million boe/d by 2030 and expects Permian production to reach about 2.5 million boe/d by 2030, leaning heavily on “advantaged” barrels (Permian, Guyana, LNG). [7]
- Exxon also disclosed that CFO Kathy Mikells will retire effective Feb. 1, 2026, to be succeeded by Neil Hansen (currently president of global business solutions), citing a non-life-threatening health issue. [8]
For investors, the plan refresh is important not just because it sets a multi-year framework—but because it gives banks and buy-side models a “new base case” for capital returns and production growth even in a lower-oil regime.
Capital returns: dividend strength plus buyback pace stays in focus
Exxon remains one of the market’s most watched dividend-and-buyback stories:
- In Q3 2025, Exxon reported $7.5B in earnings and returned $9.4B to shareholders in the quarter (including $4.2B dividends and $5.1B share repurchases). [9]
- Year-to-date (through Q3), Exxon said shareholder distributions totaled $27.8B—including $12.9B dividends and $14.9B share repurchases—consistent with its plan to repurchase $20B of stock in 2025. [10]
- Exxon declared a $1.03/share quarterly dividend for Q4 (paid Dec. 10, 2025, to holders of record Nov. 14, 2025) and noted 43 consecutive years of annual dividend-per-share growth. [11]
- In the updated 2030 plan materials, Exxon said it remains on track to repurchase $20B in 2025 and expects to maintain that pace through 2026, assuming reasonable market conditions. [12]
At the latest quoted price near $116.69, the annualized dividend run-rate of $4.12 ($1.03 × 4) implies a yield of roughly 3.5% (before taxes, and excluding buybacks). [13]
Operations and growth projects: Guyana, the Permian, and LNG are the engines
Guyana: execution speed continues to be a differentiator
Exxon’s Guyana story remains one of its strongest “quality premium” arguments on Wall Street.
- Reuters reported Exxon started production at its fourth floating oil vessel in Guyana (“One Guyana”) four months ahead of schedule in August 2025, with output marketed as Golden Arrowhead crude. [14]
- Exxon’s own release said the Yellowtail project brought Guyana’s total installed capacity to above 900,000 bopd, with initial annual average production of 250,000 bopd, and the startup was achieved four months early. [15]
In a commodity tape where investors punish cost overruns, “ahead of schedule and under budget” execution continues to matter.
Permian: Pioneer integration and higher targets
Exxon’s Permian growth outlook was also raised in its 2030 plan update. The company explicitly tied the improved outlook to technology and integration benefits from the Pioneer acquisition, and it expects Pioneer synergies of $4B annually, double initial estimates. [16]
LNG: Golden Pass commissioning is nearing the “real” catalyst moment
Golden Pass LNG (QatarEnergy 70% / Exxon 30%) is one of the most watched near-term operational milestones because it can add meaningful earnings power and diversify cash flows, but it has also been delayed and over budget.
Key recent datapoints:
- Reuters previously reported Golden Pass asked regulators for permission to re-export LNG as part of importing a cool-down cargo—often a late-stage step before first LNG. [17]
- Golden Pass LNG said in an Oct. 29 statement that it expected a cool down cargo arriving in early December as part of commissioning and start-up activities. [18]
- Argus reported FERC granted approvals related to introducing hazardous fluids and receiving the cool-down cargo, and developers anticipated the facility would start production by end-2025 or early 2026, with trains coming online in ~six-month intervals. [19]
- Reuters has also noted Golden Pass aims to begin producing LNG in late 2025 and export after that, following DOE actions on timing extensions. [20]
Investors should expect heightened sensitivity in XOM to any confirmation about first LNG, commissioning progress, or further schedule slippage.
Mozambique LNG: force majeure lifted, but first LNG is a long-dated event
Reuters reported Exxon lifted force majeure on its Rovuma LNG project in Mozambique and still expects a final investment decision in 2026, with first LNG targeted for 2030. [21]
That is a longer-duration catalyst, but the force majeure lift may reduce “tail risk” in forward LNG optionality.
The AI power boom is now touching Exxon: carbon capture + gas plants for data centers
One of the more underappreciated storylines for Exxon in late 2025 is its push to turn its carbon capture and CO₂ transport footprint into a commercial platform tied to rising power demand.
Reuters reported on Dec. 8 that NextEra plans to partner with Exxon on natural-gas-fired power plants for data centers that use carbon capture, including an initial 1.2-gigawatt plant located near Exxon’s CO₂ pipeline in the Southeast U.S., jointly marketed to data centers. [22]
This matters because it connects Exxon’s Low Carbon Solutions business to a demand wave that is being driven by hyperscale computing and AI infrastructure—an angle that could influence investor perception of Exxon’s longer-term growth mix.
Mixed transition signals: hydrogen pause adds nuance to “low carbon” expectations
Reuters reported on Nov. 21 that Exxon paused plans for what would have been one of the world’s largest hydrogen production facilities, citing weak customer demand, in the context of broader industry difficulty monetizing certain transition projects. [23]
For XOM shareholders, this can cut both ways:
- Bulls may see it as capital discipline (don’t fund low-return projects).
- Critics may view it as reduced momentum in decarbonization investments.
Either way, it’s part of the 2025 narrative shift toward “returns-first” energy transition strategies.
Governance and headline risk: auto-voting program and restructuring headlines
Retail “auto-voting” program could reshape 2026 proxy dynamics
Exxon’s shareholder-voting initiative remains controversial and is likely to come up again as the 2026 proxy season approaches:
- Reuters reported the SEC would not object (under conditions) to Exxon’s retail program that allows investors to opt into automatically voting in line with board recommendations; activists worry it could tilt corporate elections. [24]
- The SEC no-action materials describe guardrails such as availability to retail owners at no cost, exclusions for registered investment advisers, and annual reminders about opt-in status and the ability to opt out. [25]
Restructuring and job cuts
Reuters reported Exxon planned to cut about 2,000 jobs globally (about 3–4% of workforce), particularly in Canada and the EU, as part of a longer-term restructuring effort. [26]
Cost actions can support margins, but headlines can also affect sentiment—especially when investors are already debating the sustainability of buybacks in a softer oil-price environment.
M&A optionality: Exxon listed among bidders for Lukoil’s overseas assets
In a separate developing story, Reuters reported the U.S. Treasury rejected a bid by one group for Lukoil’s overseas assets, but that Exxon Mobil was among other bidders still in the race for assets valued around $22 billion, with a negotiation deadline extended to Jan. 17, 2026. [27]
It’s not an Exxon deal—yet—but it’s a reminder that Exxon has publicly signaled interest in acquisitions when it believes it can create value (and the sector is seeing consolidation pressure amid weaker crude prices). [28]
Analyst forecasts and price targets: the Street is positive—but oil assumptions matter
Consensus snapshot
One widely cited compilation shows:
- Consensus rating: “Buy”
- Average 12‑month price target: $130.74
- Range: $105 to $158 [29]
That spread is a clue: analysts are disagreeing less about Exxon’s quality and more about the commodity deck and how much “premium multiple” a major deserves.
Recent target changes after the 2030 plan update
Several banks raised targets in mid-December following Exxon’s plan refresh:
- Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $137 and maintained an Overweight rating, citing the updated long-range growth targets (as reported by Investing.com). [30]
- Wells Fargo raised its target to $158 and kept an Overweight rating; in the same report, Wells Fargo outlined a 2026 EPS estimate of $7.97 based on $60 Brent, and discussed capital return capacity supported by organic free cash flow (as reported by Investing.com). [31]
A key takeaway for traders before the open
A meaningful portion of the bullish price-target math assumes a crude environment around $60 Brent in 2026 (or at least not much worse). That’s worth weighing against macro forecasts like Goldman’s, which sees 2026 averages near $56 Brent and $52 WTI, absent major disruptions or OPEC cuts. [32]
Insider activity: small sale, but investors will notice
Insider selling is rarely decisive by itself, but it often becomes a talking point when a stock is rangebound.
Investing.com reported that Exxon VP Darrin L. Talley sold 3,000 shares on Dec. 15, 2025, valued around $356,250 (transaction price cited at $118.75). [33]
What to watch in the hours before the bell on Dec. 22, 2025
If you’re tracking XOM into the open, these are the most practical “drivers to monitor”:
- WTI/Brent direction and headlines
Any escalation/de-escalation tied to Venezuela enforcement actions or Russia‑Ukraine developments can move oil quickly—and XOM often follows. [34] - Narrative around Exxon’s 2030 plan update
Expect continued analyst commentary on whether Exxon can hit the updated growth targets without increasing capex, and how resilient returns are at lower oil prices. [35] - Golden Pass LNG commissioning progress
Any confirmation of “first LNG,” commissioning steps, or revised timing can move sentiment because Golden Pass has been delayed and is closely watched. [36] - Data-center power / CCS storyline
The NextEra partnership is a fresh angle that links Exxon’s CO₂ transport and CCS to AI-era power demand. Investors will be watching for details on commercialization and timelines. [37] - Any M&A or sanctions-related developments
The Lukoil asset-sale process has deadlines and regulatory complexity; any credible update could affect “Exxon as consolidator” sentiment. [38]
Bottom line for Dec. 22: Exxon enters the session with a strong plan, strong returns—but crude remains the swing factor
Exxon’s story into the Dec. 22 open is a classic late-cycle energy setup: a company emphasizing scale, low-cost barrels, and shareholder returns, while the market debates how long oil stays pressured by supply/demand uncertainty and geopolitics. [39]
The “bull case” rests on execution (Guyana/Permian/LNG), sustained buybacks and dividend reliability, and incremental upside from CCS-related projects tied to data-center power demand. The “bear case” is mostly macro: a prolonged lower-oil regime that forces the market to discount 2026–2027 cash flows more aggressively than current targets imply. [40]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 10. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 11. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 12. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 13. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 16. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.goldenpasslng.com, 19. www.argusmedia.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.sec.gov, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. stockanalysis.com, 30. www.investing.com, 31. www.investing.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.investing.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 40. corporate.exxonmobil.com
