SYDNEY — 22 December 2025: National Australia Bank Limited (ASX: NAB) is heading into the final stretch of the year with its share price hovering around the low A$42 range, as investors weigh a familiar (and very bank-stock) tug-of-war: interest-rate expectations versus credit risk and competition. [1]
On Monday, ABC market updates described the big banks as mixed in a shortened Christmas trading week, with NAB lower while some peers held up better. [2]
Below is a full, up-to-date look at the latest NAB stock news, key company catalysts, analyst forecasts, and valuation calls available as of 22.12.2025—including what to watch next as NAB approaches its next major reporting checkpoint.
NAB share price snapshot on 22 December 2025
NAB shares were indicated around A$42.08 on delayed pricing, with the day’s trading range shown roughly between A$41.82 and A$42.25. [3]
For broader context, NAB’s 52‑week range has been roughly A$31.13 to A$45.25, underscoring how much of the past year has been about “rates, rates, rates” (and then—surprise—also “rates”). [4]
ABC’s live market coverage also noted that, at one point during the session, NAB was down while the overall ASX tone was firmer, reflecting a day where sector leadership rotated away from banks. [5]
The big driver right now: rate expectations are back in the driver’s seat
If you’ve followed Australian bank stocks for more than five minutes, you already know the plot: net interest margins (NIM) and loan losses tend to do the heavy lifting. What’s changed recently is the market narrative around where policy rates go next.
A Reuters market report published via TradingView last week said economists at Commonwealth Bank and NAB had pulled forward expectations for rate hikes, pointing to the possibility the RBA could start raising rates as early as February, after a hawkish tilt at the central bank’s final 2025 meeting. [6]
At the same time, the broader forecasting landscape isn’t unanimous. A Reuters poll earlier in December pointed to an expectation the RBA would hold the cash rate at 3.60% and keep it there through 2026—showing the market is still dealing with genuine uncertainty rather than a single clean consensus path. [7]
And just to make things extra “markets,” Reuters also reported in November that NAB expected the RBA to be on hold before a final cut in May 2026, while other major banks had different views on the path. [8]
Why this matters for NAB stock:
- If the market shifts toward higher-for-longer (or hikes returning), bank margins can get support—but borrower stress and impairment risk also rise.
- If the market shifts back toward cuts, credit stress may ease—but margins can compress as pricing competition bites.
That’s why NAB shares can look calm on the surface while investors quietly recalibrate their spreadsheets underneath.
NAB’s latest fundamentals: FY25 results put numbers behind the narrative
NAB’s most recent full-year reporting (FY25) provides a useful baseline for what the market is debating today.
In its 2025 Full Year Results Summary, NAB reported:
- Statutory net profit:A$6,759m
- Cash earnings:A$7,091m (down 0.2% versus FY24)
- Final dividend:85 cents per share, 100% franked
- CET1 ratio:11.70% [9]
On operating performance details, NAB also flagged:
- Revenue up 2.9% (with higher customer-related remediation charges partly offsetting drivers)
- Net interest margin (NIM) up to 1.74% (with mix impacts and deposit costs part of the story)
- Underlying profit up 1.3% year-on-year [10]
This is important for investors because it frames the current question: is NAB already priced for “good-enough” margins and “manageable” impairments—or priced for perfection?
Dividends: what income-focused investors are tracking
NAB’s dividends remain one of the stock’s biggest magnets—particularly in a market where investors still prize bank franked income.
Market Index’s NAB dividend history shows the final dividend of A$0.85 carried an ex-date of 11/11/2025 and a payment date of 12/12/2025, consistent with the bank’s recent dividend pattern. [11]
From a “what’s next” perspective, NAB’s published financial calendar points to the next major dividend milestones in 2026 (including ex‑dividend and payment timing) alongside reporting events. [12]
The next major catalyst: NAB’s FY26 first-quarter trading update (date confirmed)
The next near-term “hard event” for NAB stock is a scheduled update rather than an earnings surprise.
In an ASX announcement dated 8 December 2025, NAB said it will release its FY26 first-quarter trading update on Wednesday, 18 February 2026, with the announcement to be lodged the morning of that date. [13]
NAB’s own financial calendar lists the same 18 February 2026 trading update date. [14]
Why markets care: trading updates often reset expectations on:
- business and mortgage credit growth,
- margin trends (deposit pricing vs lending competition),
- early impairment signals, and
- cost growth (especially technology and compliance spend).
Analyst forecasts on 22.12.2025: consensus view, price targets, and what they imply
Analyst forecasts aren’t prophecy, but they are a real-time map of what professional forecasters disagree about.
As of the latest consensus data shown by Investing.com:
- Overall consensus:Sell
- Ratings mix: 2 Buy, 5 Hold, 7 Sell (based on a poll of the past 3 months)
- Average 12‑month price target:A$38.07 (about ‑9.53% downside from the reference price shown) [15]
The same page lists examples of broker views and targets (illustrative of the spread):
- Jefferies: Buy (target around A$45.52)
- Goldman Sachs: Sell (target around A$38.00)
- Citi: Sell (target around A$36.00)
- CLSA: Hold (targets shown around A$38.60–A$40.00) [16]
What this dispersion tells you: the market is not arguing about whether NAB is a “real bank that will exist next year.” It’s arguing about valuation—specifically how sustainable earnings are if the rate path turns less friendly and competition stays intense.
A prominent valuation call: Morningstar says NAB is “materially overvalued”
One of the sharper recent pieces of analysis comes from Morningstar.
In a November 2025 note, Morningstar said NAB’s fiscal 2025 profit was stable (it cites $7.1 billion) and described a mix of lending and deposit growth and higher margins offset by higher impairments and operating expenses (including wage inflation, technology spending, and financial crime-related costs). [17]
Morningstar’s bottom-line stance was blunt: it lifted its fair value estimate to A$33 and said shares were “materially overvalued,” pointing to a forward P/E around 18 times and dividend yield around 4% as “rich” given its expectation for ~5% average EPS growth per year out to fiscal 2030. [18]
It also noted NAB’s final fully franked dividend of A$0.85 and referenced a payout ratio around 73%, with an expectation payout averages around 70% over the next five years. [19]
A cross-border twist: New Zealand bank capital settings could matter for NAB
Because NAB has a major New Zealand banking operation (via BNZ), regulatory settings across the Tasman can affect group capital, returns, and risk posture.
Reuters reported that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s capital review would lower some capital requirements—reducing common equity tier 1 (CET1) requirements for the largest Australian-owned banks in New Zealand while adjusting other buffers upward. [20]
This isn’t an overnight earnings catalyst, but it’s part of the slow-moving “capital physics” that influences how much flexibility banks have for dividends, buybacks, and balance sheet growth.
What investors are watching now: the practical checklist for NAB stock
Heading into year-end and early 2026, most NAB-focused debates collapse into a few core variables:
1) Net interest margin durability
FY25 NIM was reported around 1.74% in the results summary, and small shifts matter because they scale across a massive balance sheet. [21]
2) Credit quality and impairments
NAB flagged FY25 credit impairment charges and discussed asset quality trends, including signs of improvement over 2H25 in some areas. [22]
3) Costs: technology, remediation, compliance
NAB explicitly referenced expense pressures in FY25, including remediation and higher personnel/technology-related costs. [23]
4) The RBA path and the inflation data that drives it
This is where forecasts diverge: some banks’ economists have brought forward hike timing, while other economist surveys have leaned toward a prolonged hold. [24]
5) February 2026 trading update
NAB has already locked in the date: 18 February 2026. [25]
Bottom line for 22 December 2025
NAB stock is ending 2025 in a zone where “good” may already be priced in—and that’s why so much of the published analyst framing today revolves around valuation rather than survival.
- The bank’s FY25 numbers show steady earnings, a fully franked dividend, and a solid capital position. [26]
- The macro conversation is swinging again toward “what if rates rise sooner than expected,” which can help margins while raising credit risk. [27]
- Analyst consensus data currently leans cautious on valuation, and at least one major research house (Morningstar) says the shares look meaningfully expensive versus its estimate of fair value. [28]
The next concrete checkpoint on the calendar is NAB’s FY26 first‑quarter trading update on 18 February 2026, which is likely to be the moment the market stops arguing in hypotheticals and starts arguing in numbers again. [29]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.abc.net.au, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.abc.net.au, 6. www.tradingview.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.nab.com.au, 10. www.nab.com.au, 11. www.marketindex.com.au, 12. www.nab.com.au, 13. data-api.marketindex.com.au, 14. www.nab.com.au, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.morningstar.com.au, 18. www.morningstar.com.au, 19. www.morningstar.com.au, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.nab.com.au, 22. www.nab.com.au, 23. www.nab.com.au, 24. www.tradingview.com, 25. data-api.marketindex.com.au, 26. www.nab.com.au, 27. www.tradingview.com, 28. www.investing.com, 29. data-api.marketindex.com.au
