UK Stock Market Today: FTSE 100 Braces for a Softer Open as UK GDP Holds at 0.1% and Commodities Hit Fresh Records (22 December 2025)

London’s equity market heads into the Christmas week with a very different feel from the one investors have grown used to in recent years: the FTSE 100 is sitting close to record territory after a powerful 2025, but the domestic economic backdrop is deteriorating, and liquidity is thinning fast as the holiday break approaches. ^[1]

Early indications on Monday, 22 December 2025, point to a cautious start for UK stocks. FTSE 100 futures were signalling a modest dip (around -0.2%), as traders balance a late-year “Santa” mood in global risk assets against downbeat UK surveys and fresh economic data that underlines how sluggish growth remains. ^[2]

FTSE 100 and FTSE 250: the starting point for UK shares this morning

By the end of last week, the UK market had put in one of its strongest bursts in months. On Friday, the FTSE 100 finished up 0.61%, wrapping a 2.6% weekly gain—its best week since mid-October—helped by strength in miners and defence names amid a data-heavy stretch and a Bank of England rate cut. ^[3]

The latest widely quoted “market overview” readings still reflect that closing position: FTSE 100 at 9,897.42 and FTSE 250 at 22,312.71 (delayed). ^[4]

Into today’s open, the tone is more measured. Reuters’ morning “factors to watch” note the FTSE 100 is seen opening lower, while Proactive Investors flagged the index being called about 10 points down after last week’s jump. ^[5]

Why this “pause for breath” matters

This is a classic year-end setup: big moves can happen on thin volumes, and even modest headlines can provoke outsized reactions—especially in sectors like miners, oil & gas, and large-cap defensives that dominate the FTSE 100. IG also warned that reduced holiday liquidity can amplify swings across asset classes. ^[6]

UK economy: GDP stays at 0.1%, but the message is still “stagnation”

The biggest scheduled UK macro headline today is the confirmation that the economy hasn’t found momentum. The Office for National Statistics said UK GDP grew 0.1% in Q3 (July–September 2025), unrevised, while Q2 growth was revised down to 0.2%. On the year, GDP was 1.3% higher than a year earlier (and 0.9% higher per capita). ^[7]

That’s not a recession print—but it’s not a growth story, either. The Bank of England has already been signalling that the economy is weak: last week, it said it expected zero growth in Q4, even as it judged underlying growth to be modestly positive. ^[8]

The external position improved—but trade remains a drag

Alongside GDP, the ONS also published balance of payments detail showing the current account deficit narrowed to £12.1bn (1.6% of GDP) in Q3, and the “underlying” measure excluding precious metals narrowed to £10.5bn (1.4% of GDP). ^[9]

However, the same release underlines the UK’s persistent structural challenge: the trade deficit excluding precious metals widened to £4.6bn (0.6% of GDP), with the goods deficit at £57.4bn even as the services surplus rose to £52.8bn. ^[10]

For UK equities, this mix matters because the FTSE 100 is globally exposed (many constituents earn revenues in dollars and euros), while the FTSE 250 is more domestically sensitive—and therefore more directly tied to UK demand, hiring, and household confidence. ^[11]

Business surveys turn gloomier: CBI signals a weak handover into 2026

If the GDP release is “stagnant but stable,” the forward-looking surveys are more uncomfortable reading. The CBI’s latest Growth Indicator pointed to a private-sector downturn into year-end, with its weighted balance falling to -30% in December and weakness reported across sectors. ^[12]

Proactive Investors reported the same CBI finding as part of today’s market setup, noting that the survey implied no growth expected this quarter or next and echoed the Bank of England’s own staff forecasts for a flat finish to 2025. ^[13]

Jobs: vacancies keep shrinking even as pay pressures persist

The labour market narrative is also splitting in two. Adzuna data cited in UK reporting showed vacancies fell again in November—down 6.4% month-on-month and down 15% year-on-year, with entry-level roles particularly weak. ^[14]

For investors, that combination—cooling hiring demand with still-elevated wage growth—feeds directly into the debate about how quickly the Bank of England can cut rates in 2026 without reigniting inflation pressure. ^[15]

Global backdrop: rate-cut bets, a weak yen, and a commodity surge set the tone

UK stocks are opening into a global market that still looks supportive for risk assets, even as central banks diverge. IG’s weekly note highlighted that US inflation eased to 2.7% year-on-year while US unemployment rose to 4.6%, strengthening expectations for faster Federal Reserve easing into 2026 (with a caveat that shutdown-disrupted data may be noisy). ^[16]

Asia started the week upbeat, with Reuters reporting broad gains led by tech and Japan, even after the Bank of Japan’s rate move to 0.75%—a shift that still left the yen weak and bond yields rising. ^[17]

Commodities are the big swing factor for London today

For London in particular, commodities are the “fastest transmission channel” from global macro to FTSE performance.

Gold pushed above $4,400/oz and silver hit a record high in UK live coverage, driven by safe-haven demand, geopolitical tension, and rate-cut expectations. ^[18]
Reuters’ global markets report also highlighted metals strength and noted silver’s powerful year-to-date performance. ^[19]
In the Reuters UK “factors to watch,” copper was described as setting a record, with a key catalyst coming from 2026 pricing terms in the copper supply chain. ^[20]

Because the FTSE 100 has heavyweight exposure to miners and commodities-linked names, a continuation of the metals rally can quickly reshape the index’s intraday leadership—sometimes overpowering weaker domestic news. ^[21]

Company news moving UK stocks today: pharma, energy, miners, and a mid-cap shock

Here are the corporate headlines and sector stories most likely to influence trading on 22 December 2025.

AstraZeneca: late-stage lung cancer trial miss

A key potential drag for the FTSE 100 early on: Reuters reported AstraZeneca said a late-stage trial of Imfinzi plus ceralasertib failed to improve overall survival versus standard treatments in previously treated advanced non-small cell lung cancer. ^[22]

Given AstraZeneca’s size in the index, even a modest share move can matter for the broader FTSE 100 direction—especially on low-volume holiday sessions.

Harbour Energy: a $3.2bn deal changes the growth map

In UK-listed energy, Harbour Energy said it would buy LLOG Exploration for $3.2bn, a deal that expands it beyond the North Sea into deepwater oil and gas. ^[23]

For investors, the timing is notable: oil prices have been volatile, and Reuters pointed to renewed supply uncertainty tied to US actions around Venezuelan oil shipments—exactly the kind of geopolitical driver that can swing sentiment in energy names. ^[24]

Antofagasta and the copper squeeze: 2026 terms go to zero

A headline with broader implications for miners (and global industrial supply chains): Reuters reported that Antofagasta and a Chinese copper smelter agreed 2026 treatment and refining charges at $0 / 0 cents, a sign of tight concentrate conditions that helped propel copper to record levels. ^[25]

In market terms, this is bullish for well-positioned copper miners, but it can pressure the economics of smelters—highlighting how commodity rallies can create winners and losers across the same value chain.

GSK: two separate headlines—manufacturing and US drug pricing

GSK is in focus on multiple fronts:

Reuters reported Samsung Biologics is acquiring its first US drug production facility from GSK for $280m. ^[26]
Proactive Investors reported GSK became the latest pharma group to agree to the US government’s “most favoured nation” drug pricing approach in exchange for an exemption from tariffs, including reported discounts on certain respiratory medicines. ^[27]

These stories land at a sensitive moment for global pharma pricing, with Reuters also noting broader US pricing agreements involving major drugmakers. ^[28]

Rank Group: €7.1m payment fraud hits a FTSE 250 name

In the mid-cap space, Rank Group warned its Spanish business had been the victim of a €7.1m payment fraud, with local police investigating. ^[29]

On a normal trading day, that’s a meaningful single-stock story. In a holiday week, it can become a focal point for FTSE 250 risk sentiment.

FTSE index reshuffle: British Land in, WPP out—what changes today

One of the most practical “today-only” market mechanics is the FTSE UK Index Series quarterly review taking effect. FTSE Russell confirmed earlier this month that British Land will join the FTSE 100 and WPP will leave the FTSE 100 for the FTSE 250 as part of the December 2025 rebalance. ^[30]

This kind of reshuffle matters because index trackers (ETFs and passive funds) must buy and sell accordingly, which can create outsized volumes and price swings in the affected stocks—particularly around the effective date.

Why WPP’s move is getting extra attention

WPP has also been in the spotlight for 2025 performance narratives. The Financial Times’ year-end review of market winners and losers highlighted WPP as a notable decliner, linking the weakness to pressures including AI disruption in advertising. ^[31]

That context adds a fundamental “story layer” to what would otherwise be a purely technical index-change event.

Outlook: what investors are watching into the year-end and early 2026

1) The Bank of England’s next steps—and how clear the message really is

The BoE cut rates last week, and IG noted the decision was a 25bp cut to 3.75% on a 5–4 vote, while still signalling caution on the pace of future easing. ^[32]

But the policy debate is getting more complicated. The Financial Times reported economists warning that the BoE’s increased reliance on alternative scenarios (rather than a single central forecast) risks muddying guidance and weakening accountability—precisely when investors are trying to price the 2026 rate path. ^[33]

2) UK equities have outperformed in 2025—can the lead hold?

Reuters reported the FTSE 100 was up about 21.1% year-to-date as of 19 December, outperforming the S&P 500’s gain over the same period, helped by financials and other rate-sensitive winners earlier in the year. ^[34]

That outperformance is part of why today’s open matters. A soft start isn’t unusual—but investors will be watching to see whether London maintains leadership into year-end, or whether profit-taking takes over as portfolios “window dress” into 2026.

3) Holiday liquidity: small headlines can move big indices

Reduced trading activity is a feature, not a bug, of this week. IG explicitly warned that thin liquidity can exaggerate market moves around data surprises. ^[35]

For UK investors, that’s a reminder to pay close attention to:

commodity prices (gold, silver, copper, oil),
sterling swings, and
any last-minute corporate updates that land when the market is lightly staffed.

Bottom line for the UK stock market today

The UK stock market on 22 December 2025 is opening with a “two-speed” narrative:

Globally exposed FTSE 100 sectors—especially miners and energy—are being pulled around by record-setting commodity moves and shifting rate-cut expectations. ^[36]
UK domestic signals—GDP stuck at 0.1%, business surveys weakening, and job vacancies declining—reinforce the view that the economy is limping into 2026, even as the BoE starts to cut. ^[37]

With the FTSE 100 near its highs after a standout week, today looks less like the start of a new trend and more like a test of whether the rally can hold together under thinner liquidity and mixed news flow. ^[38]