As of December 22, 2025, GSK plc (LSE: GSK / NYSE: GSK) is getting an unusually dense cluster of “headline risk + catalyst potential” — the kind of mix that can make a defensive pharma stock trade like it just drank three espressos.
In the last two weeks alone, investors have had to price in:
- a U.S. drug-pricing agreement tied to tariff relief,
- FDA approval of a twice‑yearly asthma biologic (a rare dosing cadence in the category), and
- a U.S. manufacturing-site transaction that sits right on the fault line of the tariff narrative.
Below is the most complete, publication-ready breakdown of current GSK stock news, forecasts, and analyst takes available as of today, plus what to watch next.
GSK stock price check
On the NYSE, GSK’s American Depositary Shares (ADS) last traded around $48.61. (Each GSK ADS represents two ordinary shares.) [1]
The three headlines driving GSK sentiment right now
1) GSK’s U.S. drug-pricing deal: tariff relief in exchange for lower prices
On Dec. 19, 2025, the Trump administration announced new agreements with multiple drugmakers — including GSK — aimed at lowering certain drug prices while also tying the deals to manufacturing/onshoring commitments and tariff relief for participating companies. [2]
A White House fact sheet describing the framework says the deals include Medicaid-focused price changes and points to specific respiratory products where U.S. patient prices could be reduced (examples given include Advair Diskus and other inhaled medicines), alongside broader access measures. [3]
Market coverage also notes the quid pro quo: pricing concessions in exchange for a three‑year tariff-free period, with parts of the commercial terms remaining undisclosed. [4]
Why this matters for the stock:
GSK is a major respiratory player. If pricing pressure hits inhaled products harder, that can pinch margins. But tariff clarity (even temporary) can reduce uncertainty — and markets often pay for reduced uncertainty like it’s a luxury good.
The key investor question isn’t “lower prices: good or bad?” It’s how much price pressure, which products, and whether it’s offset by volume/access gains and/or improved policy certainty.
2) FDA approval of Exdensur: twice‑yearly dosing enters severe asthma
On Dec. 16, 2025, Reuters reported the FDA approved GSK’s Exdensur (depemokimab) as a twice‑yearly add‑on maintenance treatment for severe eosinophilic asthma in patients 12 and older — described as the first biologic in this category cleared for dosing that infrequently. [5]
The FDA did not approve Exdensur for chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP) at this time, though GSK said it continues discussions with regulators. [6]
Why this matters for the stock:
Depemokimab is widely framed as a meaningful growth lever for GSK — but not because it’s “magic.” The competitive set (Dupixent, Xolair, and others) is strong. The strategic angle is convenience and adherence: twice‑yearly dosing could appeal to patients who struggle with more frequent injections, and to clinicians trying to keep people stable long-term. [7]
3) Samsung Biologics deal: a U.S. manufacturing site changes hands
On Dec. 21, 2025, Reuters reported that Samsung Biologics agreed to acquire a U.S. drug production facility from GSK for $280 million, via purchase of a 100% stake in Human Genome Sciences Inc. The Rockville, Maryland site reportedly has 60,000 liters of drug substance capacity, and the deal is expected to close by the end of Q1 2026 (with the final value potentially adjusting). [8]
Why this matters for the stock:
On dollar value alone, this isn’t a “transform the P&L tomorrow” event for GSK. But it does feed into a bigger narrative: global pharma is actively positioning manufacturing footprints in response to tariff uncertainty and U.S. industrial policy. [9]
Pipeline and product momentum: the 2026 “catalyst stack” is real
GSK’s story has often been described as “steady, but prove the pipeline.” Right now, the pipeline is producing actual regulatory outcomes — which markets usually prefer over PowerPoint optimism (a low bar, but still).
Arexvy (RSV vaccine): Europe could broaden access in early 2026
GSK said EMA’s CHMP recommended expanding the indication of Arexvy to all adults 18+, with a European Commission final decision expected in February 2026. [10]
That’s meaningful because a broader label expands the addressable population well beyond the older‑age cohorts that initially defined the commercial opportunity.
Blujepa (gepotidacin): U.S. label expansion for gonorrhea
Reuters reported on Dec. 11, 2025 that the FDA expanded the use of GSK’s Blujepa (gepotidacin) as an oral treatment option for uncomplicated urogenital gonorrhea in patients 12+ who have limited or no alternative options. [11]
From an investor lens, this supports GSK’s strategy of building out infectious disease assets as it prepares for future patent cliffs in other franchises.
Tebipenem HBr: NDA resubmitted (oral carbapenem for complicated UTI)
One of the more underappreciated near-term developments: Spero Therapeutics announced that GSK resubmitted an NDA to the FDA for tebipenem HBr for complicated urinary tract infections (including pyelonephritis). The submission triggers a $25 million milestone payment to Spero expected in Q1 2026. [12]
If approved, the “first oral carbapenem” angle is a big clinical and commercial differentiator in a space where IV therapy is common — though, as always, label specifics and stewardship dynamics matter.
Blenrep: approved, but with constraints — still a core 2026 storyline
Earlier in Oct. 2025, Reuters reported the FDA granted a narrow approval for Blenrep (belantamab mafodotin) in a specific combination regimen for multiple myeloma, limiting the breadth of a U.S. relaunch and shaping sales expectations. [13]
This matters because Blenrep is frequently modeled as one of the products that can help offset longer-term pressures elsewhere — but the path is not frictionless.
Analyst forecasts: what the Street expects for GSK’s sales, EPS, and dividend
Here’s the most useful “single pane of glass” forecast snapshot available today: GSK’s own analyst consensus compilation, with figures “as at 26/11/2025,” aggregated from major covering firms. [14]
Top-line and profit outlook (broker consensus collected by GSK)
Consensus expects GSK turnover of:
- £32.515bn in 2025
- £34.100bn in 2026 (about +4.9% year over year) [15]
Consensus earnings per share:
- 170.1p (2025)
- 184.1p (2026) (about +8.2%) [16]
Consensus dividend per share:
- 63.6p (2025)
- 66.2p (2026) (about +4.1%) [17]
Consensus free cash flow is modeled to rise sharply from £3.351bn (2025) to £5.831bn (2026). [18]
What those forecasts imply about the business mix
Consensus shows Specialty and Vaccines rising, while General Medicines trends down over time:
- Specialty turnover: £13.338bn (2025) → £14.795bn (2026) [19]
- Vaccines turnover: £9.063bn (2025) → £9.285bn (2026) [20]
- General Medicines: £10.113bn (2025) → £10.021bn (2026) [21]
This is basically the market’s preferred narrative for GSK: “shift the center of gravity toward higher-growth, innovation-led categories.”
Product-level forecasts that matter to the stock debate
A few consensus line items stand out because they map directly onto the “offset the cliff” question:
- depemokimab revenue ramp: £193m (2026) rising to £1.750bn (2031) [22]
- Blenrep modeled recovery: £146m (2026) to £1.041bn (2031) [23]
- Arexvy growth: £637m (2026) to £1.174bn (2031) [24]
- Shingrix stays large and relatively steady: £3.473bn (2026) [25]
And then there’s the big structural worry:
- HIV is forecast up near-term (about £8.032bn in 2026) but down materially by 2031 in the same consensus set. [26]
That ties directly into the widely discussed HIV patent expiry dynamics that investors keep hammering on.
Price targets and “stock forecast” snapshots (and why they differ)
If you look up GSK price targets, you’ll notice the odd phenomenon where “consensus” seems to disagree with itself. That’s mostly because different platforms pull from different analyst universes, sometimes mixing ordinary shares and ADS math.
Examples as of today:
- MarketBeat (NYSE: GSK) shows an average 12‑month target around $44.13 (with a stated high of $53 and low of $35.25). [27]
- Investing.com shows an average target around 49.35 (platform units vary by listing context) with a “Neutral” consensus based on 8 analysts. [28]
The honest takeaway isn’t “who’s right?” but: targets cluster around ‘mid‑range’ expectations, and the stock’s next rerating likely hinges on execution (launch trajectories, pricing impact) more than on multiple expansion alone.
Technical / momentum read: why traders have been paying attention
Investor’s Business Daily flagged that on Dec. 16, 2025, GSK’s ADR Composite Rating rose to 96, implying strong relative performance versus the broader stock universe in its ranking system. [29]
That’s not a fundamental thesis by itself — but it does help explain why GSK can sometimes move more than you’d expect for a large-cap pharma: momentum screens pull in incremental demand.
What to watch next (key dates into early 2026)
Full-year and Q4 2025 results: Feb. 4, 2026
GSK’s investor events calendar lists full year and fourth quarter results on Wednesday, Feb. 4, 2026. [30]
Dividend timeline around results
GSK’s dividend calendar shows the Q4 2025 dividend aligned with the Feb. 4, 2026 results announcement, with subsequent dividend dates listed (including February ex‑div timing). [31]
Europe’s RSV decision window: expected Feb. 2026
GSK’s Arexvy update points to a February 2026 expectation for the European Commission decision on the expanded label. [32]
CEO transition: new leadership starts Jan. 1, 2026
GSK announced that Luke Miels will assume CEO responsibilities and join the Board on Jan. 1, 2026, with Emma Walmsley stepping down from the Board on Dec. 31, 2025 while remaining with the business through her notice period. [33]
Leadership changes don’t change drug biology, but they can change capital allocation, deal appetite, and how aggressively the company communicates its strategy — all of which can affect valuation.
The bull case vs. the bear case for GSK stock right now
What bulls are leaning on
- Catalyst density: multiple meaningful regulatory and commercial events converging (Exdensur, Arexvy expansion prospects, infectious disease momentum). [34]
- Consensus growth profile through 2026: turnover and EPS expected to rise, dividends edging higher. [35]
- Pipeline ramp economics: depemokimab and oncology contributions modeled to scale materially later in the decade. [36]
What bears keep pointing at
- Pricing pressure is no longer abstract. The U.S. pricing deal is concrete — but the long-term margin implications may take quarters to become visible. [37]
- Execution risk: twice-yearly dosing is attractive, but uptake is not automatic; competition is intense in asthma biologics. [38]
- The HIV patent cliff remains the structural debate. Even with Cabenuva/Apretude growth and pipeline migration, consensus still models HIV revenue declining over the longer run. [39]
- Oncology expectations require proof: Blenrep’s narrower U.S. approval shapes the slope of the revenue ramp and leaves pricing/usage dynamics to be proven in real-world practice. [40]
Bottom line for Dec. 22, 2025
GSK stock is entering 2026 with something it hasn’t always had in recent years: multiple near-term catalysts that are already “real” (regulatory decisions, policy deals, concrete timelines) rather than hypothetical.
But the trade-off is equally real: U.S. pricing politics have moved from “risk factor” to “active variable,” and markets will demand evidence that GSK can grow Specialty + Vaccines fast enough to absorb both policy headwinds and eventual patent erosion.
References
1. www.nasdaq.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. www.whitehouse.gov, 4. www.tradingview.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.gsk.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.globenewswire.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.gsk.com, 15. www.gsk.com, 16. www.gsk.com, 17. www.gsk.com, 18. www.gsk.com, 19. www.gsk.com, 20. www.gsk.com, 21. www.gsk.com, 22. www.gsk.com, 23. www.gsk.com, 24. www.gsk.com, 25. www.gsk.com, 26. www.gsk.com, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. www.investing.com, 29. www.investors.com, 30. www.gsk.com, 31. www.gsk.com, 32. www.gsk.com, 33. www.gsk.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.gsk.com, 36. www.gsk.com, 37. www.marketwatch.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.gsk.com, 40. www.reuters.com
