Dec. 22, 2025 — Amicus Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: FOLD) has abruptly shifted from a “rare-disease growth story” into a deal-driven stock, after BioMarin Pharmaceutical announced an all-cash agreement to acquire Amicus for $14.50 per share. With shares trading around $14.18 on Dec. 22, the market is now pricing FOLD mostly on closing probability and timing, not clinical catalysts. [1]
That change in narrative is already visible in analyst actions dated 22.12.2025: TD Cowen downgraded Amicus to Hold and reset its target to $14.50, essentially treating the stock as a merger-arbitrage position rather than a standalone biotech. [2]
Below is the full Dec. 22 snapshot—what’s happened, what forecasts still matter (and which no longer do), and the specific events that can move the stock between now and the expected close in Q2 2026.
The headline driving FOLD: BioMarin agrees to buy Amicus for $14.50 in cash
BioMarin (NASDAQ: BMRN) and Amicus announced on Dec. 19, 2025 that they signed a definitive agreement under which BioMarin will acquire Amicus for $14.50 per share in an all-cash transaction, valuing Amicus at approximately $4.8 billion (equity value). [3]
From an investor’s standpoint, two parts of the deal matter immediately:
- The cap: If the deal closes as agreed, the upside for common shareholders is largely capped at $14.50 (plus/minus any small market spread). [4]
- The clock: The companies guide to a close in Q2 2026, subject to shareholder approval and regulatory clearances. [5]
BioMarin also stated the transaction is not subject to financing conditions, and it plans to fund it with cash on hand and about $3.7 billion of non-convertible debt financing. [6]
Why this deal happened: marketed rare-disease drugs, real revenue, and a cleaner IP runway
Amicus brings BioMarin two marketed therapies in rare diseases:
- Galafold (migalastat) for Fabry disease
- Pombiliti (cipaglucosidase alfa-atga) + Opfolda (miglustat) for Pompe disease
Reuters reported BioMarin said each therapy has potential to reach $1 billion in peak sales, and that the two Amicus therapies generated $599 million in combined sales over the past four quarters. [7]
BioMarin highlighted the same $599 million “past four quarters” figure and pitched the acquisition as a way to accelerate revenue growth immediately after close and become accretive to non-GAAP diluted EPS within 12 months, with greater accretion beginning in 2027. [8]
The IP update investors shouldn’t ignore
A major piece of “why now” is legal clean-up around Galafold.
BioMarin disclosed that pending U.S. Galafold patent litigation was resolved via settlements tied to Abbreviated New Drug Applications (ANDAs), and that—if FDA approval is obtained—licenses would allow generic entry starting Jan. 30, 2037, subject to customary conditions and review by U.S. competition authorities. [9]
In plain English: less IP fog, a clearer U.S. exclusivity runway, and fewer headline risks during integration.
Dec. 22, 2025 analyst moves: targets converge on $14.50 as the story becomes “deal math”
Once a definitive cash bid is on the table, classic 12‑month biotech price targets stop behaving like… well, forecasts. They become shorthand for: “Do we think the deal closes?”
TD Cowen’s Dec. 22 downgrade: Buy → Hold, target → $14.50
On Dec. 22, 2025, TD Cowen downgraded Amicus from Buy to Hold and cut its price target to $14.50 from $20, explicitly tying the move to the BioMarin acquisition. [10]
Other rating notes around the announcement
Other outlets tracking broker actions reported similar moves:
- Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated a neutral stance and cut its target to $14.50 after the deal announcement. [11]
- Needham reiterated Hold shortly after the announcement. [12]
Meanwhile, some data aggregators still display older, pre-deal “upside” targets (more on why those are now mostly academic below). [13]
The only “forecast” that really matters now: the merger spread
With FOLD at about $14.18 and the cash consideration at $14.50, the spread is roughly:
- $14.50 − $14.18 = $0.32 per share
- $0.32 / $14.18 ≈ 2.26% gross return if the deal closes at $14.50
Those inputs (current trading level and deal price) come straight from market pricing and the merger terms. [14]
What that spread is “paying you” for
That ~2.3% isn’t free money; it’s compensation for:
- time value (waiting until closing)
- deal risk (regulatory, shareholder vote, litigation noise, financing market conditions—even if not a formal condition)
- tail risk (a surprise competing bid, or a surprise deal break)
Because the companies target Q2 2026, the annualized equivalent of a ~2.3% spread depends entirely on how quickly the process finishes. [15]
What can still move FOLD between now and closing
If you’re watching Amicus Therapeutics stock today, these are the practical catalysts that matter more than “pipeline hype” in the near term:
1) Shareholder approval and the formal proxy process
Amicus disclosed in an SEC filing that closing requires, among other things, adoption of the merger agreement by holders of at least a majority of outstanding common stock. [16]
2) Regulatory clearance (HSR and other jurisdictions)
The same SEC filing lists the expiration/termination of the waiting period under the Hart-Scott-Rodino (HSR) Act and other antitrust/foreign direct investment clearances as conditions. [17]
3) The drop-dead date that defines “how long is too long”
Amicus’ Form 8‑K includes an outside date of June 19, 2026 (with provisions for automatic extensions in certain circumstances), which matters for investors modeling timing risk. [18]
4) The usual post‑deal litigation and “shareholder alert” noise
Following large-cap biotech deals, it’s common to see law-firm announcements and “fair price” investigations. MarketBeat’s news roll around the announcement includes multiple items of that type—rarely thesis-changing, but sometimes capable of slowing the calendar. [19]
The underrated Dec. 22 news angle: what happens to DMX‑200 and the Dimerix partnership?
One of the more interesting Dec. 22 developments didn’t come from Wall Street—it came from Dimerix Limited (ASX: DXB), the partner connected to DMX‑200.
In a company announcement dated 22 December 2025, Dimerix confirmed that BioMarin’s acquisition of Amicus (if completed) would include the U.S. commercial licensing contract for DMX‑200, including rights and obligations currently held by Amicus. [20]
Dimerix also stated it remains eligible to receive up to US$590 million in upfront, development and sales milestone payments (plus royalties) under the commercial licensing agreement, and that Amicus and Dimerix would continue collaborating on U.S. planning for DMX‑200 until the closing. [21]
This matters for FOLD watchers because it reinforces a key point: even though FOLD is now a deal stock, the asset package BioMarin is buying includes pipeline optionality beyond the two marketed products. [22]
Before the buyout: Amicus was posting growth—and had just hit GAAP profitability
Even if the market is no longer valuing Amicus on standalone fundamentals day-to-day, those fundamentals help explain why the deal was plausible at this price.
In its Q3 2025 update (reported Nov. 4, 2025), Amicus posted:
- Total revenues of $169.1 million for Q3 2025
- Galafold net product revenues of $138.347 million
- Pombiliti + Opfolda net product revenues of $30.714 million
- GAAP net income of $17.3 million for the quarter
- Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities of $263.8 million at Sept. 30, 2025 [23]
The company also reiterated 2025 guidance calling for 15%–22% total revenue growth (constant exchange rate framing), with Pombiliti + Opfolda growth expected to be materially higher than Galafold’s percentage growth. [24]
And on the pipeline front, Amicus said the Phase 3 ACTION3 study of DMX‑200 (funded/executed by Dimerix) was on track for full enrollment by end of 2025. [25]
Reconciling the “old” price targets with the new reality
If you’re seeing big upside numbers in older coverage, you’re not hallucinating—those targets existed before BioMarin showed up with a cash offer.
For example, a Nasdaq/Zacks piece dated Dec. 12, 2025 cited a mean analyst price target around $15.9, implying ~60% upside from where the stock traded at the time (around $9.90). [26]
MarketBeat’s consensus page still shows an average price target of $16.36 based on a basket of analyst ratings, even while some brokers reset to the $14.50 deal price. [27]
The correct way to read those older targets on Dec. 22 is not “FOLD can still run to $21.” It’s: the market just accepted a cash bid that effectively re-anchors the short-term payoff.
Bottom line: Amicus stock is now a bet on deal completion, not a biotech rerating
As of 22.12.2025, Amicus Therapeutics stock is behaving like a classic merger-arbitrage trade:
- Upside: the remaining discount to $14.50
- Downside: what happens if the deal breaks and the stock retraces toward pre-announcement levels (it closed at $10.89 before the deal pop, per market data) [28]
- Main variables: shareholder vote, regulatory clearance (HSR and other jurisdictions), and the timeline implied by the merger agreement’s outside date mechanics [29]
For long-term biotech investors, the honest framing is almost comically simple: the upside case is mostly gone unless a competing bid emerges, and the remaining question is how much risk you’re being paid to wait. For deal traders, the focus is on filings, approvals, and calendar risk—not Fabry and Pompe patient starts.
No matter which camp you’re in, the rare-disease irony is delicious: after years of clinical and commercial execution, the stock’s next big catalyst is… paperwork.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.biomarin.com, 4. www.biomarin.com, 5. www.biomarin.com, 6. www.biomarin.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.biomarin.com, 9. www.biomarin.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.nasdaq.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.biomarin.com, 16. www.sec.gov, 17. www.sec.gov, 18. www.sec.gov, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. company-announcements.afr.com, 21. company-announcements.afr.com, 22. www.biomarin.com, 23. www.globenewswire.com, 24. www.globenewswire.com, 25. www.globenewswire.com, 26. www.nasdaq.com, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. www.biomarin.com, 29. www.sec.gov
