Amicus Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: FOLD) stock is no longer trading like a typical biotech momentum name—at least not this week. As of December 22, 2025, the stock is hovering around $14.18, tightly anchored to the $14.50 per-share all-cash buyout BioMarin Pharmaceutical has agreed to pay. [1]
That tight range is the market’s way of saying: “We believe the deal is real, but not free money.” The remaining gap between today’s trading price and the $14.50 cash consideration reflects the time value of waiting, plus the risk (however small) that something delays or disrupts closing.
Below is a full, publication-ready breakdown of the latest news, analyst calls, deal terms, and forecasts circulating on Dec. 22, 2025—and what matters most for anyone tracking Amicus Therapeutics stock right now.
What’s driving Amicus Therapeutics stock on Dec. 22: the BioMarin acquisition
The dominant catalyst is BioMarin’s agreement to acquire Amicus in an all-cash transaction valued at about $4.8 billion, paying $14.50 per share. The companies say the deal has been unanimously approved by both boards, and Amicus’ board is recommending shareholders vote in favor. [2]
BioMarin is buying a rare-disease portfolio with two marketed products:
- Galafold (migalastat) for Fabry disease
- Pombiliti (cipaglucosidase alfa-atga) + Opfolda (miglustat) for Pompe disease
BioMarin and Amicus reported the two products generated $599 million in combined net product revenue over the past four quarters. [3]
The transaction is expected to close in Q2 2026, subject to customary conditions like regulatory clearances and a shareholder vote. [4]
The “deal spread” explains today’s price action (and it’s basically the whole stock story)
With FOLD trading around $14.18 versus the $14.50 offer price, the remaining spread is about:
- $0.32 per share, or roughly 2.26% upside to the deal price (before fees/borrow costs/taxes), if the deal closes on schedule.
This is classic merger-arbitrage pricing: investors discount the final payout by (1) how long it may take and (2) the probability something goes wrong.
Importantly, Amicus’ SEC filing describing the merger agreement lays out a key clock: if the merger isn’t consummated by June 19, 2026, either party can generally walk away—though the “end date” can extend automatically in certain circumstances (notably if only antitrust/FDI-type clearances are outstanding). [5]
So the market is effectively weighing: “$14.50 cash in hand later” versus “what’s the risk-adjusted value today?”
Latest analyst forecasts and rating changes for Amicus stock (Dec. 22, 2025)
Because the stock is now tethered to a cash takeout, today’s “forecast” conversation is less about long-range biotech upside and more about how analysts adjust to the buyout math.
Citigroup: Neutral reaffirmed, target moved to $14.50
A Dec. 22 report cited by MarketBeat says Citigroup reaffirmed a Neutral rating and cut its price target to $14.50 (from $17.00), effectively matching the deal consideration. [6]
TD Cowen: Downgrade to Hold, target cut to $14.50
In another Dec. 22 update, Investing.com reports TD Cowen downgraded Amicus from Buy to Hold and reduced its price target to $14.50 from $20.00, explicitly reflecting the cash offer price. [7]
Why these “forecasts” converge on $14.50
This is normal in cash deals: once the market believes the transaction will close, a price target above the offer tends to imply either:
- a credible chance of a higher bid emerging, or
- a view that the deal will be amended upward.
Absent that, many analysts simply peg targets near the consideration and shift the discussion to closing risk and timing.
The nuts-and-bolts deal terms investors should actually care about
The joint press release filed with the SEC includes a few details that matter for anyone tracking FOLD’s risk profile:
- $14.50 per share, all-cash
- Premium described as 33% to the prior close, 46% to the 30-day VWAP, and 58% to the 60-day VWAP [8]
- No financing condition (a meaningful “deal certainty” signal) [9]
- BioMarin plans to finance using cash on hand plus ~$3.7 billion of non-convertible debt financing, with a bridge commitment in place [10]
- Closing remains subject to HSR (U.S. antitrust) waiting period, other specified regulatory clearances, and approval by Amicus shareholders [11]
The Amicus 8-K also notes the company expects to file a preliminary proxy statement within 20 business days after signing, putting a near-term paperwork milestone on the calendar. [12]
A quietly huge update inside the deal: Galafold patent litigation settlement (and why it matters)
One reason this transaction landed with unusual conviction is that it didn’t just announce an acquisition—it also cleared an overhang.
The press release states that Amicus resolved patent litigation tied to generic challenges for Galafold involving Aurobindo and Lupin. Under the settlement terms described, Amicus will grant licenses for generics to launch in the U.S. beginning January 30, 2037 (if FDA-approved and subject to customary caveats), and the parties will terminate ongoing Hatch-Waxman litigation. [13]
From a stock-market perspective, this matters because patent clarity can reduce “unknown unknowns” that widen deal spreads.
The pipeline angle: DMX-200 and the Dimerix update published Dec. 22
Amicus isn’t only about the marketed Fabry and Pompe franchises. The announcement also highlights DMX-200, described as a Phase 3 asset for focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS), a rare kidney disease. [14]
On December 22, 2025, Australia-based Dimerix Limited—Amicus’ U.S. commercial licensing partner for DMX-200—published an update confirming that BioMarin’s acquisition of Amicus would include the Dimerix U.S. licensing contract, with the agreement remaining in force and collaboration continuing until close. [15]
Dimerix also reiterated the economic structure it expects under that U.S. licensing deal, including eligibility for up to US$590 million in total potential payments (milestones and other items) plus tiered royalties, and noted it had already received an upfront payment in May 2025. [16]
For FOLD shareholders, DMX-200 is less likely to re-rate the stock during the deal window (because the buyout caps upside), but it helps explain why BioMarin sees value beyond just “buying revenue.”
Why BioMarin wanted Amicus: the strategic logic behind the stock move
Even though the story today is about arbitrage mechanics, it helps to understand why the deal exists—because strategic fit influences how markets handicap closing risk.
Multiple reports frame this as BioMarin doubling down on rare disease, particularly lysosomal storage disorders. [17]
A Dec. 22 analysis from pharmaphorum adds color on commercial momentum, reporting:
- Galafold sales rising 10% to $371 million over the first nine months of the year
- Pombiliti + Opfolda revenue climbing to $77 million over the same period (with strong growth off a newer base) [18]
Whether one treats those figures as “the” definitive numbers or simply directional, the investment point is straightforward: BioMarin is paying for de-risked, marketed rare-disease assets plus late-stage optionality, in a sector where scale and global infrastructure can matter.
The cleanest “forecast” for FOLD now is scenario-based
With a definitive cash offer on the table, the most honest way to frame forecasts is not “what’s the biotech worth in 2027?” but “what happens under each plausible path?”
Scenario 1: Deal closes on schedule (base case implied by price)
- Shareholders receive $14.50 in cash at closing. [19]
- The stock typically drifts toward $14.50 as key approvals fall into place, though the spread can widen on delays or risk-off markets.
Scenario 2: Deal delayed (timing risk)
- Price may stay below $14.50 longer, because time value matters and arbitrage capital demands compensation for waiting.
- The merger agreement’s timeline mechanics and extension provisions become the headline. [20]
Scenario 3: Deal disruption (regulatory, shareholder vote, or other shock)
- FOLD could re-price toward a standalone valuation (and that’s often much lower than the offer price after a buyout premium evaporates).
- The deal’s conditions—HSR/other clearances and shareholder approval—are the obvious checkpoints. [21]
Scenario 4: A higher bid emerges (upside tail)
- This is the “lottery ticket” embedded in most deal spreads.
- The merger agreement includes customary restrictions on soliciting alternatives, with fiduciary exceptions described in the 8-K. [22]
Other headlines in circulation: merger-arb trackers and shareholder-law-firm noise
On Dec. 22, merger arbitrage trackers continued to list FOLD among active deals, reiterating the $14.50 cash consideration and the headline premium. [23]
Separately, at least one investor-rights law firm publicly announced it is “investigating” whether the sale price is fair to shareholders. These announcements are common around M&A events and don’t necessarily indicate wrongdoing, but they can add minor headline risk and procedural distraction. [24]
What to watch next for Amicus Therapeutics stock
If you’re following FOLD stock into year-end, the biggest price-moving variables are now process milestones, not clinical-trial surprises:
- Proxy statement timing and details (special meeting date, voting mechanics, deal background) [25]
- Regulatory clearance progress (HSR and any relevant non-U.S. reviews, where applicable) [26]
- Spread behavior: widening often signals rising perceived risk or longer expected duration; tightening signals rising confidence
- Any revised analyst notes that explicitly address deal probability rather than just copying the offer price (rare, but informative) [27]
- Updates from partners tied to pipeline assets, like the Dimerix DMX-200 disclosures published today [28]
Bottom line on Dec. 22, 2025: FOLD is trading like a deal, not a biotech
Right now, Amicus Therapeutics stock is essentially a live referendum on deal certainty. The company still has real products, real patients, and real pipeline science—but for the public equity, the upside is largely capped at $14.50 unless a higher bid appears.
That makes today’s story unusually clean for markets: the fundamentals explain why BioMarin wants Amicus, but the spread explains why FOLD isn’t already at $14.50.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.sec.gov, 3. www.sec.gov, 4. www.sec.gov, 5. www.sec.gov, 6. www.marketbeat.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. www.sec.gov, 9. www.sec.gov, 10. www.sec.gov, 11. www.sec.gov, 12. www.sec.gov, 13. www.sec.gov, 14. www.sec.gov, 15. company-announcements.afr.com, 16. company-announcements.afr.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. pharmaphorum.com, 19. www.sec.gov, 20. www.sec.gov, 21. www.sec.gov, 22. www.sec.gov, 23. www.insidearbitrage.com, 24. www.businesswire.com, 25. www.sec.gov, 26. www.sec.gov, 27. www.investing.com, 28. company-announcements.afr.com
